Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2629366 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9720 on: April 25, 2018, 10:27:31 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc


Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9721 on: April 25, 2018, 10:31:27 AM »
the lawmaker also said he supports administrative action for reforming Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, if it comes down to that.

Only if it means gutting or winding down the GSEs, probably.

I wonder if Mnuchin is more likely to act if he gets calls from enough members of Congress to do so, even if they can't pass any legislation. He has said he wants to work with Congress: would this scenario count?

Since Treasury "is not allergic" to the utility model put forth by FHFA, ostensibly administrative reform would result in FnF continuing to be owned by shareholders, and perhaps even without competition. Utility models lend themselves to monopolies rather than lots of competitors.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9722 on: April 25, 2018, 10:39:52 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9723 on: April 25, 2018, 10:48:09 AM »
FMCCL at roughly 18% of par looks super attractive here.  Yes, I'm talking my book.  ;)

From my model, R^2 coefficient of "% of par vs dividend yield" hit 0.85 last week, pretty high. It's still at 0.77 now, so I have been selling high divs and buying low ones. If it gets back down to the 0.5-0.55 range I'll do the reverse. For now I'm mostly in the low-divs like FNMAL and FMCKM.

(btw I can't buy or sell the variables. They would kind of break my model anyway)

I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9724 on: April 25, 2018, 12:30:24 PM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9725 on: April 26, 2018, 11:36:32 AM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

Im surprised the market even bothers to take divs into account at this point with some trading at the % of par that they are. 10 years into this mess for some reason that is still respected.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9726 on: April 27, 2018, 11:33:14 AM »
I love how fake press tries to shape public opinion. They tried to put Jamie dimon as treasury secretary and Dimon really wanted it.

Imfpubs now spreading rumors that it will be in 2021 , 14 years, that we will see reform in and demarco who tried to gut gse’s is coming back as fhfa director (may be the biggest joke of 2018).

Casey research puts out a piece on bitcoin that it is going to 50,000 and now puts out that it is going to 0 on july 21. And asking you to buy marijuana stocks as they think the whole america will soon be dopey.

So called experts are useless with their fake news. Beware.
C'mn Emily. All the experts you need are here. No more imfpubs for you! I am predicting the start of a recession by July lol. More likely,  lots of R talk by the summer. Can Paolo even perform my Oracle magic?

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9727 on: April 27, 2018, 12:13:20 PM »
I don't factor dividends into the prefs I'm buying at all.  Not expecting the div rate to have any meaningful, if any at all, impact long-term.

I have a core position that I hold on to. I just use the rest to jump around and hopefully take advantages of the sways of the market. The correlation directly reflects the market's opinion of the probability that dividends ever get turned back on. I leave out FNMAS and FMCKJ on purpose to avoid liquidity premiums tainting the data, but I include FNMAT when I perhaps shouldn't.

Im surprised the market even bothers to take divs into account at this point with some trading at the % of par that they are. 10 years into this mess for some reason that is still respected.

probably the dividend correlation increases when limited positive news is expected over the near term (now).   it likely shrunk when there was noise of resolution in the corker bill.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9728 on: April 29, 2018, 04:42:05 AM »
was the government's reply due last Thursday in the Delaware case?  I don't see it on gselinks.

onyx1

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