Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3083022 times)

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9730 on: April 30, 2018, 08:25:57 AM »
My quick take-

Mnuchin wants an explicit guarantee but doesn't want receivership/end of the current GSEs.
- watt likely won't agree to Mnuchin acting administratively to implement explicit backstop or won't allow Mnuchin to act administratively at all sans congress legislation
- congress likely won't come up with legislation with current GSEs around (e.g. public shareholder model)

Once Treasury has an FHFA director that will be agreeable on both -> recap with explicit guarantee + utility structure


waynepolsonAtoZ

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9731 on: April 30, 2018, 08:30:55 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9732 on: April 30, 2018, 08:33:25 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

Why is Paulson still in this trade and concurrently estimating high degrees of confidence?  Is he uninformed? Has he really had no conversations w Mnuchin? 

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9733 on: April 30, 2018, 08:46:59 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

how is Watt good?

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9734 on: April 30, 2018, 08:49:41 AM »
So, what is the agenda?

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative.   

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9735 on: April 30, 2018, 08:50:36 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

how is Watt good?

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9736 on: April 30, 2018, 08:51:49 AM »
My quick take-

Mnuchin wants an explicit guarantee but doesn't want receivership/end of the current GSEs.
- watt likely won't agree to Mnuchin acting administratively to implement explicit backstop or won't allow Mnuchin to act administratively at all sans congress legislation
- congress likely won't come up with legislation with current GSEs around (e.g. public shareholder model)

Once Treasury has an FHFA director that will be agreeable on both -> recap with explicit guarantee + utility structure

it's highly unlikely he can slap an explicit guarantee on without congress; among other reasons, this is likely why he's waiting another year.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9737 on: April 30, 2018, 08:53:17 AM »
So, what is the agenda?

Yep.

Well, we know what the agenda is for the RNC.
It can only be an agenda that, presumably, Watt doesn't support. Moelis?

there might be some areas where he agrees with watt (hopefully shareholder owned utility) and some areas where he doesn't (3pct down payments)?  the new fhfa director will theoretically be fully on board with mnuchin's view.

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9738 on: April 30, 2018, 09:16:59 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

how is Watt good?

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.

I don't think that makes his presiding over the draining of capital at the companies any better. Oh good I wrote a paper that gave you political cover! Oh wow thanks! Good job stealing all the money for the goverment for a decade.

undervalued

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9739 on: April 30, 2018, 09:52:50 AM »
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-unveils-fix-for-restoring-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

I can't reconcile Mnuchin's comments about replacing the FHFA director with someone who supports the agenda. Didn't Watt write a paper advocating for a utility model for shareholder owned companies? What was in it that Mnuchin may not agree with? If he agrees with it, is the delay just so Mnuchin can get some leverage?

Mnuchin said a government guarantee for 30 year mortgage was necessary but didn't say a model (implicit or explicit). Could be argued that an implicit guarantee is all that's needed.

anyone see the interview?  saying that next year trump can replace watt and whoever is next director must agree with agenda doesnt necessarily mean that mnuchin thinks watt doesnt agree with program, depending on context of question and how he answered

Anyone concerned about Maria in the video? She looks less attractive than usual.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers