Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2540663 times)

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9740 on: April 30, 2018, 08:50:36 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

how is Watt good?

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.


investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9741 on: April 30, 2018, 08:51:49 AM »
My quick take-

Mnuchin wants an explicit guarantee but doesn't want receivership/end of the current GSEs.
- watt likely won't agree to Mnuchin acting administratively to implement explicit backstop or won't allow Mnuchin to act administratively at all sans congress legislation
- congress likely won't come up with legislation with current GSEs around (e.g. public shareholder model)

Once Treasury has an FHFA director that will be agreeable on both -> recap with explicit guarantee + utility structure

it's highly unlikely he can slap an explicit guarantee on without congress; among other reasons, this is likely why he's waiting another year.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9742 on: April 30, 2018, 08:53:17 AM »
So, what is the agenda?

Yep.

Well, we know what the agenda is for the RNC.
It can only be an agenda that, presumably, Watt doesn't support. Moelis?

there might be some areas where he agrees with watt (hopefully shareholder owned utility) and some areas where he doesn't (3pct down payments)?  the new fhfa director will theoretically be fully on board with mnuchin's view.

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9743 on: April 30, 2018, 09:16:59 AM »
My quick take-
Mnuchin-bad.

Watt-good.

how is Watt good?

simple - his utility paper earlier this year likely stopped the corker bill by giving democrats cover to resist.

I don't think that makes his presiding over the draining of capital at the companies any better. Oh good I wrote a paper that gave you political cover! Oh wow thanks! Good job stealing all the money for the goverment for a decade.

undervalued

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9744 on: April 30, 2018, 09:52:50 AM »
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/treasury-unveils-fix-for-restoring-fannie-mae-freddie-mac

I can't reconcile Mnuchin's comments about replacing the FHFA director with someone who supports the agenda. Didn't Watt write a paper advocating for a utility model for shareholder owned companies? What was in it that Mnuchin may not agree with? If he agrees with it, is the delay just so Mnuchin can get some leverage?

Mnuchin said a government guarantee for 30 year mortgage was necessary but didn't say a model (implicit or explicit). Could be argued that an implicit guarantee is all that's needed.

anyone see the interview?  saying that next year trump can replace watt and whoever is next director must agree with agenda doesnt necessarily mean that mnuchin thinks watt doesnt agree with program, depending on context of question and how he answered

Anyone concerned about Maria in the video? She looks less attractive than usual.
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9745 on: April 30, 2018, 10:38:33 AM »
You should all sell shares like me so that handout is even bigger and fhfa director can reduce the donwpaymnet from 3% to 0%. And increase the trust fund to zillions. And increase number of FHFA  lawyers defending the outflow of funds from the very companies he is to conserve.

Dear College Student trying to get by,

Thank you for the investment advice.

Yours truly,
Self-made millionaires on this board (via investing)

Just messing with you, Emily.  But seriously, I can sense you are letting your inner Captain Kirk steer the ship instead of relying on your inner Spock.  It should be the other way around.
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9746 on: April 30, 2018, 11:29:09 AM »
I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

I've often found the olds like to pretend that hard work and their skills somehow make them great. I'd argue that they just got the money first, before it was inflated into dogshit.

Don't take my word for it. ask ole Druck https://vimeo.com/65731171 - he's probably a little higher level than the msg board folk.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9747 on: April 30, 2018, 11:30:59 AM »
I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

Was just having fun with you.  Look, you have a lot going for you... you're young and you have been following very closely one of the most complicated investments you're likely to encounter in your entire life.  There is value in that.  Keep plugging away and work at keeping emotions in check and you'll be fine, whether it is with the GSE's or elsewhere.
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9748 on: April 30, 2018, 02:30:14 PM »
i watched the video.  when mnuchin said govt guarantee, the context was FnF.  there was no prior mention of a treasury backstop.  is it clear to everyone when he said govt guaranty he meant treasury, rather than a guaranty by a GSE? 

i happen to think it was a very poor interview.  maria needs more sleep

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9749 on: April 30, 2018, 07:25:10 PM »
So, what is the agenda?

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative.   

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.
But turning on the commitment fee would change things little. Except for us. It doesn't look like he is going out of his way to help hedge funds/shareholders. Something has changed. The opposite more likely as these appearances happen at the exact moment of shares on the verge of a breakout. Anybody has any reason to believe J Powell and perhaps Mnuchin are in an Andrew Mellon “purge the rottenness out of the system” mission? Yellen would have stabilized markets long time ago. No help for markets, no help for hedge funds, no help for us. Why end the sweep, then?