Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2799200 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9860 on: May 17, 2018, 08:34:42 AM »
Just had to throw my $.02 in which is broadly inline with others. Looks like all we have to do is just sit and wait huh?  So we need either a change to the 3rd amendment, receivership(unlikely due to mnuchins comments) or some other congress and a new path forward.

A lot of maybes but maybe this is Stevies' thought all along, wait till Hensarling, Corker out and work with new congress after all.

Does the fact that the stock still trade mean it will see value eventually? She mentions this as a reason?

i do not have a high regard for treasury counsel, based solely on what i heard in the oral argument.  she was unprepared for the nationalization question, and countered it by saying the shareholders may eventually get value without offering a cogent explanation why...a big booboo for an appellate litigator.  if that judge is seriously perplexed that a conservatorship/receivership statute was converted into a nationalization statute without clear statutory language to that effect (and that is a big if, sometimes judges make comments in oral arguments and then apparently say never mind in conference), nothing that treasury counsel said will assuage him

In your experience, how common is this? We have already seen it more than once in FnF shareholder cases.

judges test counsel for both sides but usually do so with more verve when they actually are sympathetic with the line of questioning they are pursuing.  usually, one can sense how a judge will come out from the vigor/tenor of his/her questioning.  contra, as for ginsburg in perry, there is scuttlebutt that peter wallison (who was instrumental in getting ginsburg a judgeship when he was reagan WH counsel) "got to" ginsburg post-argument. 

as for cases still to be decided, in 5th circuit collins argument, willett seemed to be pro-P-ish (both in substance of questioning and tenor...recall the hotel california reference), but one can't be sure how he will vote and, perhaps more importantly, as the new guy on the block, whether he can bring another judge along with him if he favors Ps.


allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9861 on: May 18, 2018, 04:33:32 AM »
Interesting bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/fannie-mae-advocacy-ban-doesn-t-stop-lawyer-from-pushing-views

Apparently this Brian Brooks fellow, who is on Fannies general counsel, is in Mnuchin's ear telling him the facts and that GSEs should be recapped / released administratively inline with FHFA's blueprint laid out earlier in the year. He also worked with Mnuchin at OneWest Bank.

At least someone over there isn't laying over.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9862 on: May 18, 2018, 04:58:00 AM »
Interesting bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/fannie-mae-advocacy-ban-doesn-t-stop-lawyer-from-pushing-views

Apparently this Brian Brooks fellow, who is on Fannies general counsel, is in Mnuchin's ear telling him the facts and that GSEs should be recapped / released administratively inline with FHFA's blueprint laid out earlier in the year. He also worked with Mnuchin at OneWest Bank.

At least someone over there isn't laying over.
A surprise. Thanks. Interesting this comes at a time when the real estate market looks to be at the end of the line, judging by phm, dhi, bldr, nvr, len and other related stocks including wood and the price of lumber. I can't see the real estate market escaping the next recession whether later this year or next. C

Changing direction, is this Joe Light article a move to expose the behind the scene maneuvering right before next week's hearing? And will Brian Brooks be the administration's appointee to head FHFA next year?
« Last Edit: May 18, 2018, 06:27:10 AM by rros »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9863 on: May 18, 2018, 06:30:34 AM »

Changing direction, is this Joe Light article a move to expose the behind the scene maneuvering right before next week's hearing? And will Brian Brooks be the administration's appointee to head FHFA next year?

That was my initial reaction as well.  Light is likely trying to undermine any future actions by the Administration by alerting adversaries to Mnuchin's possible end-goal.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9864 on: May 18, 2018, 07:33:19 AM »
This will help the resolution and we may even see a resolution before elections. They may not have a choice.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-era-of-low-mortgage-rates-is-over-1526635801

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9865 on: May 18, 2018, 07:40:52 AM »
Interesting bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/fannie-mae-advocacy-ban-doesn-t-stop-lawyer-from-pushing-views

Apparently this Brian Brooks fellow, who is on Fannies general counsel, is in Mnuchin's ear telling him the facts and that GSEs should be recapped / released administratively inline with FHFA's blueprint laid out earlier in the year. He also worked with Mnuchin at OneWest Bank.

At least someone over there isn't laying over.

as i recall brooks was a senior partner at a DC law firm, so he understands the legal lay of the land...plus he was mnuchin's number 2 at onewest, not just another guy.  if true, brooks silent advocacy for what is likely a moelis blueprint pathway informs what mnuchin might be thinking...which is to go down this pathway but with a paid-for mbs guaranty (need congress) to deal with all of the incoming from FnF haters.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9866 on: May 19, 2018, 03:35:19 PM »
as i recall brooks was a senior partner at a DC law firm, so he understands the legal lay of the land...plus he was mnuchin's number 2 at onewest, not just another guy.  if true, brooks silent advocacy for what is likely a moelis blueprint pathway informs what mnuchin might be thinking...which is to go down this pathway but with a paid-for mbs guaranty (need congress) to deal with all of the incoming from FnF haters.

That's beautiful.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9867 on: May 19, 2018, 05:53:00 PM »
as i recall brooks was a senior partner at a DC law firm, so he understands the legal lay of the land...plus he was mnuchin's number 2 at onewest, not just another guy.  if true, brooks silent advocacy for what is likely a moelis blueprint pathway informs what mnuchin might be thinking...which is to go down this pathway but with a paid-for mbs guaranty (need congress) to deal with all of the incoming from FnF haters.

That's beautiful.

if you think about it, the principal objection to FnF by its haters is that it could arbitrage the lower cost of financing due to the implicit fed guaranty for the benefit of its shareholders and execs (raines and howard were well paid).  forget that tbtf banks benefit from fed backing of deposits and the same implicit guaranty. there is no consistency where there is hate.

so if you want to do what's right (return FnF to a strong capital position) and be politic enough to understand what you have to do to do what is right (no more unpaid for implicit guaranty, and give mbs holders better regulatory capital treatment by holding fed backed mbs), then this would be a smart way of going about things.

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9868 on: May 19, 2018, 09:32:49 PM »
Except the intrinsic value has been stolen and continues to be stolen.

 “Since Congress has been unable to put forth a viable plan since conservatorship began nearly a decade ago, we believe it is increasingly likely that the administration and FHFA will soon take the lead on housing finance reform. While the exact timing of a resolution is difficult to predict and continued stock price volatility is likely, the per-share intrinsic value of each entity continues to grow along with their core businesses.”

https://assets.pershingsquareholdings.com/media/2014/09/17123349/Pershing-Square-1Q18-Investor-Letter-PSH.pdf

Stop whining emily. You already sold so what’s the point?

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9869 on: May 20, 2018, 06:37:37 AM »
if you think about it, the principal objection to FnF by its haters is that it could arbitrage the lower cost of financing due to the implicit fed guaranty for the benefit of its shareholders and execs (raines and howard were well paid).  forget that tbtf banks benefit from fed backing of deposits and the same implicit guaranty. there is no consistency where there is hate.

so if you want to do what's right (return FnF to a strong capital position) and be politic enough to understand what you have to do to do what is right (no more unpaid for implicit guaranty, and give mbs holders better regulatory capital treatment by holding fed backed mbs), then this would be a smart way of going about things.

I greatly appreciate your comments on this board... always helpful and insightful.  Thanks!