Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2530706 times)

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9860 on: May 16, 2018, 06:01:04 PM »
Just had to throw my $.02 in which is broadly inline with others. Looks like all we have to do is just sit and wait huh?  So we need either a change to the 3rd amendment, receivership(unlikely due to mnuchins comments) or some other congress and a new path forward.

A lot of maybes but maybe this is Stevies' thought all along, wait till Hensarling, Corker out and work with new congress after all.

Does the fact that the stock still trade mean it will see value eventually? She mentions this as a reason?

i do not have a high regard for treasury counsel, based solely on what i heard in the oral argument.  she was unprepared for the nationalization question, and countered it by saying the shareholders may eventually get value without offering a cogent explanation why...a big booboo for an appellate litigator.  if that judge is seriously perplexed that a conservatorship/receivership statute was converted into a nationalization statute without clear statutory language to that effect (and that is a big if, sometimes judges make comments in oral arguments and then apparently say never mind in conference), nothing that treasury counsel said will assuage him


SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9861 on: May 17, 2018, 04:57:49 AM »
Emily, with all due respect, many (not all) of your posts are simply a complaint about the current situation.  That doesn't add value to the board and just bogs it down.  With that said, I do appreciate it when you post something that adds value to the board.  Thank you.

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muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9862 on: May 17, 2018, 06:57:45 AM »
Treasury's argument that a recovery for shareholders is possible (unknown and un-timed) is a straight arrow to the heart of the nationalization argument by plaintiff, so it is worrisome. Not to mention an acceptable delay strategy, as a recovery might be possible... within the next 1000 years.

except i didnt see the judge concerned with nationalization buying it

And wouldn't that argument be analogous to something like: "I didn't steal your property, I just took it but I could return it under some nebulous circumstances thus absolving me of theft".

as i recall this was from ms wright, treasury counsel, who was hardly inspiring confidence.  it was a very weak response, which only added to her lack of credibility imo
You are all correct. But we better be lucky.

Does anyone know why the FHFA and Treasure are still fighting hard in these courts if they're friendly to shareholders in their future plans? Isn't a court win a good windfall for Mnuchin's shareholder friendly plan? Why aren't they weakening their stances?

Because DOJ is still controlled by Obama. Just look at how DOJ refuses to hand over documents Congress requested, and how Rod Rosenstein threatened to investigate every one of Congress Intelligence committee member. If DOJ has the ball to fight Congress, it definitely has no problem fighting against FnF shareholders.

doughishere

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9863 on: May 17, 2018, 07:08:39 AM »
Treasury's argument that a recovery for shareholders is possible (unknown and un-timed) is a straight arrow to the heart of the nationalization argument by plaintiff, so it is worrisome. Not to mention an acceptable delay strategy, as a recovery might be possible... within the next 1000 years.

except i didnt see the judge concerned with nationalization buying it

And wouldn't that argument be analogous to something like: "I didn't steal your property, I just took it but I could return it under some nebulous circumstances thus absolving me of theft".

as i recall this was from ms wright, treasury counsel, who was hardly inspiring confidence.  it was a very weak response, which only added to her lack of credibility imo
You are all correct. But we better be lucky.

Does anyone know why the FHFA and Treasure are still fighting hard in these courts if they're friendly to shareholders in their future plans? Isn't a court win a good windfall for Mnuchin's shareholder friendly plan? Why aren't they weakening their stances?

Because DOJ is still controlled by Obama. Just look at how DOJ refuses to hand over documents Congress requested, and how Rod Rosenstein threatened to investigate every one of Congress Intelligence committee member. If DOJ has the ball to fight Congress, it definitely has no problem fighting against FnF shareholders.

CC: BagholderQuotes.
« Last Edit: May 17, 2018, 07:15:00 AM by doughishere »

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9864 on: May 17, 2018, 08:14:37 AM »
Just had to throw my $.02 in which is broadly inline with others. Looks like all we have to do is just sit and wait huh?  So we need either a change to the 3rd amendment, receivership(unlikely due to mnuchins comments) or some other congress and a new path forward.

A lot of maybes but maybe this is Stevies' thought all along, wait till Hensarling, Corker out and work with new congress after all.

Does the fact that the stock still trade mean it will see value eventually? She mentions this as a reason?

i do not have a high regard for treasury counsel, based solely on what i heard in the oral argument.  she was unprepared for the nationalization question, and countered it by saying the shareholders may eventually get value without offering a cogent explanation why...a big booboo for an appellate litigator.  if that judge is seriously perplexed that a conservatorship/receivership statute was converted into a nationalization statute without clear statutory language to that effect (and that is a big if, sometimes judges make comments in oral arguments and then apparently say never mind in conference), nothing that treasury counsel said will assuage him

In your experience, how common is this? We have already seen it more than once in FnF shareholder cases.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9865 on: May 17, 2018, 08:34:42 AM »
Just had to throw my $.02 in which is broadly inline with others. Looks like all we have to do is just sit and wait huh?  So we need either a change to the 3rd amendment, receivership(unlikely due to mnuchins comments) or some other congress and a new path forward.

A lot of maybes but maybe this is Stevies' thought all along, wait till Hensarling, Corker out and work with new congress after all.

Does the fact that the stock still trade mean it will see value eventually? She mentions this as a reason?

i do not have a high regard for treasury counsel, based solely on what i heard in the oral argument.  she was unprepared for the nationalization question, and countered it by saying the shareholders may eventually get value without offering a cogent explanation why...a big booboo for an appellate litigator.  if that judge is seriously perplexed that a conservatorship/receivership statute was converted into a nationalization statute without clear statutory language to that effect (and that is a big if, sometimes judges make comments in oral arguments and then apparently say never mind in conference), nothing that treasury counsel said will assuage him

In your experience, how common is this? We have already seen it more than once in FnF shareholder cases.

judges test counsel for both sides but usually do so with more verve when they actually are sympathetic with the line of questioning they are pursuing.  usually, one can sense how a judge will come out from the vigor/tenor of his/her questioning.  contra, as for ginsburg in perry, there is scuttlebutt that peter wallison (who was instrumental in getting ginsburg a judgeship when he was reagan WH counsel) "got to" ginsburg post-argument. 

as for cases still to be decided, in 5th circuit collins argument, willett seemed to be pro-P-ish (both in substance of questioning and tenor...recall the hotel california reference), but one can't be sure how he will vote and, perhaps more importantly, as the new guy on the block, whether he can bring another judge along with him if he favors Ps.

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9866 on: May 18, 2018, 04:33:32 AM »
Interesting bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/fannie-mae-advocacy-ban-doesn-t-stop-lawyer-from-pushing-views

Apparently this Brian Brooks fellow, who is on Fannies general counsel, is in Mnuchin's ear telling him the facts and that GSEs should be recapped / released administratively inline with FHFA's blueprint laid out earlier in the year. He also worked with Mnuchin at OneWest Bank.

At least someone over there isn't laying over.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9867 on: May 18, 2018, 04:58:00 AM »
Interesting bloomberg article: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-18/fannie-mae-advocacy-ban-doesn-t-stop-lawyer-from-pushing-views

Apparently this Brian Brooks fellow, who is on Fannies general counsel, is in Mnuchin's ear telling him the facts and that GSEs should be recapped / released administratively inline with FHFA's blueprint laid out earlier in the year. He also worked with Mnuchin at OneWest Bank.

At least someone over there isn't laying over.
A surprise. Thanks. Interesting this comes at a time when the real estate market looks to be at the end of the line, judging by phm, dhi, bldr, nvr, len and other related stocks including wood and the price of lumber. I can't see the real estate market escaping the next recession whether later this year or next. C

Changing direction, is this Joe Light article a move to expose the behind the scene maneuvering right before next week's hearing? And will Brian Brooks be the administration's appointee to head FHFA next year?
« Last Edit: May 18, 2018, 06:27:10 AM by rros »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9868 on: May 18, 2018, 06:30:34 AM »

Changing direction, is this Joe Light article a move to expose the behind the scene maneuvering right before next week's hearing? And will Brian Brooks be the administration's appointee to head FHFA next year?

That was my initial reaction as well.  Light is likely trying to undermine any future actions by the Administration by alerting adversaries to Mnuchin's possible end-goal.
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9869 on: May 18, 2018, 07:33:19 AM »
This will help the resolution and we may even see a resolution before elections. They may not have a choice.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-era-of-low-mortgage-rates-is-over-1526635801