the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.
my two guesses for this are:
a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio.
b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.
any other thoughts? pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?
Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.
I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.
I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?
I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?