Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 1201659 times)

Flynnstone5

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5190 on: January 10, 2017, 10:02:05 AM »
Semi interesting - dimon was asked directly about the GSEs.  Can anyone glean what he is implying here?

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/5276683740001/?#sp=show-clips

Who knows? He says "it's fixable" and "don't make it binary", which to me translates into fix FnF and don't just say that we need a whole new system fwiw.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5191 on: January 10, 2017, 04:25:16 PM »
"Can he on his own cancel the warrants or change the conversion rate/price?"

Treasury can exercise the Warrant to own 79.9% of the GSEs' common stock by paying $8,000 for each company. Treasury can exercise the Warrant anytime between now and September 2008.

However, they weren't satisfied with that and now get 100% of the total comp. income of the GSEs.

Treasury and FHFA can change those terms via a 4th Amendment, although not until January 1, 2018.

But the treasury can make a 4th amendment without approval from congress and thus before 1/1/18 correct? I thought congress approval was only needed to get FnF out of conservatorship.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5192 on: January 11, 2017, 04:54:14 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 05:02:54 AM by investorG »

Mephistopheles

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5193 on: January 11, 2017, 05:16:53 AM »
Anthony Scaramucci is taking a job as a Trump advisor. Anyone know his opinion on the NWS? Couldn't find anything on Google.

Flynnstone5

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5194 on: January 11, 2017, 05:57:46 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?

Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.

I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.

I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?

I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5195 on: January 11, 2017, 06:02:15 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?

Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.

I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.

I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?

I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?
Nobody is selling. All shares are consolidating in a high level pennant, a continuation pattern. Typical after a huge run.  Some back and filling, profit taking... waiting for the next leg up. We go higher from here.

Flynnstone5

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5196 on: January 11, 2017, 06:34:35 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?

Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.

I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.

I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?

I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?
Nobody is selling. All shares are consolidating in a high level pennant, a continuation pattern. Typical after a huge run.  Some back and filling, profit taking... waiting for the next leg up. We go higher from here.

Any opinion on above and non-class action shareholders getting left out in the cold?

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5197 on: January 11, 2017, 08:20:36 AM »
mnuchin is an investor in paulson's fund (though just <1m)

https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/B003D12FCD5F4C3F852580A5004FF6A4/$FILE/Mnuchin,%20Steven%20T.%20final278.pdf

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5198 on: January 11, 2017, 08:21:50 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?

Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.

I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.

I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?

I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?
Nobody is selling. All shares are consolidating in a high level pennant, a continuation pattern. Typical after a huge run.  Some back and filling, profit taking... waiting for the next leg up. We go higher from here.

Any opinion on above and non-class action shareholders getting left out in the cold?
My personal view is that all these big name shareholders took positions to become the new owners in a privatization. Why would they settle privately after all the effort, resources and time spent? What they want is a huge piece of the largest market there ever is and in that game be the most meaningful player.

Mephistopheles

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #5199 on: January 11, 2017, 09:21:16 AM »
the share prices have not responded in recent weeks to some decently positive signs, each of which is minor but in sum they don't seem inconsequential.

my two guesses for this are:

a) the preferred shareholders are selling to rebalance their portfolios (fairholme), wind down investments (perry), attempt to weigh on the share prices to reduce media attention in advance of the new admin and/or other reasons. this dynamic, if true, would hold down the common which still seems linked to liquid preferreds in the 2:1 ratio. 

b) there is deep concern over mnuchin's process, at a minimum the news there might get worse before it gets better.

any other thoughts?  pending court release uncertainty too much to overcome?

Would prfd shareholders like Fairholme and Perry really sell shares at these prices with the end finally in sight? Doesn't make sense to me at all. They are in a great position (being in prfd) with close ties to a friendly admin.

I don't see Mnuchin having any problems getting through.

I think what's weighing on share prices is the definite uncertainty over court decisions; and there is a great deal of talk lately about litigants possibly settling with no benefit to shareholders not directly involved in the suits like PwC. I don't have the legal expertise to know for example, can Ackman, Berkowitz, Perry, etc. structure a deal that benefits only them? Will other hedge funds come in and offer a recap strategy that screws current shareholders and allows them to walk away with the newly restructured entities?

I continue to find that every time that I gain optimism on this investment, it always reverts to so many negative concerns. The documents being made available is essential imo and I can't help but wonder if they ever make their way to P's attorneys. Mnuchin will certainly be questioned on FnF and how his plans could benefit hedge funds friends, etc. The perfect answer to these accusations would be to raise the document issues, the extraordinary use of privilege, the NWS and profitability. Will he bring any of this up or does he say the wrong thing and devastate recent pps gains?
Nobody is selling. All shares are consolidating in a high level pennant, a continuation pattern. Typical after a huge run.  Some back and filling, profit taking... waiting for the next leg up. We go higher from here.

Any opinion on above and non-class action shareholders getting left out in the cold?
My personal view is that all these big name shareholders took positions to become the new owners in a privatization. Why would they settle privately after all the effort, resources and time spent? What they want is a huge piece of the largest market there ever is and in that game be the most meaningful player.

Well if they leave out the rest of us, that's even more money to them, well worth the resources...

I too have been concerned about this ever since the beginning. A deal that benefits only those with connections or lawsuits. Essentially Fairholme, Perry, Paulson, Pershing, and perhaps the U.S. Government owning 100% of the two entities. I'm not a lawyer so unsure whether this is even possible, but it worries me. After all, the hedge funds are truly out for themselves, right? Mnuchin may be too good to be true for us.