Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 1201654 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6810 on: April 20, 2017, 07:42:24 PM »
NYT, fake news and all has got our back. Not sure what I think about all that but I'm not complaining at this exact moment: https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/07/business/a-revolving-door-helps-big-banks-quiet-campaign-to-muscle-out-fannie-and-freddie.html?smid=tw-share

Pulitzer Prize winning writer Gretchen Morgenson has written some good articles on the GSE's over the past couple years.  This particular article was great when written and is still great today.
"He is the one who has saved us. He is the one who embraced us. He is the one who has come and is coming again. He's the remedy." -Crowder's "Remedy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DPdWn7m3I0

Spekulatius

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6811 on: April 20, 2017, 08:40:27 PM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6812 on: April 21, 2017, 03:48:30 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6813 on: April 21, 2017, 04:37:10 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6814 on: April 21, 2017, 06:42:14 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

it's possible you are right, that's why I say there's a chance it was directed to CSR payments.

but once again I would say if you read the 2 joint congressional reports and corsi's reports, including the mar13 one (can be found on gselinks.com), I think you'd have some suspicion over the timing of the congressional request, then withdrawal of the CSR funding at the same time of the GSE DTA windfall, combined with the ridiculous stonewalling of the congressional investigation by the prior admin.

it's also possible that the current admin knows this but doesn't want to hurt people if their plan is to eventually stop the sweep.  but maybe you're underestimating the power of the anti-gse opposition and thus anything that tilts opinion in favor of the GSEs needs to be used, imo.

Sunrider

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6815 on: April 21, 2017, 07:18:03 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

I think I said it this way a few pages ago: A dollar is a dollar :)

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6816 on: April 21, 2017, 07:20:36 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

it's possible you are right, that's why I say there's a chance it was directed to CSR payments.

but once again I would say if you read the 2 joint congressional reports and corsi's reports, including the mar13 one (can be found on gselinks.com), I think you'd have some suspicion over the timing of the congressional request, then withdrawal of the CSR funding at the same time of the GSE DTA windfall, combined with the ridiculous stonewalling of the congressional investigation by the prior admin.

it's also possible that the current admin knows this but doesn't want to hurt people if their plan is to eventually stop the sweep.  but maybe you're underestimating the power of the anti-gse opposition and thus anything that tilts opinion in favor of the GSEs needs to be used, imo.
You are right. I did underestimate anti-gse oppo. But I also failed to assess correctly what a mess an investment tied to political outcomes could be. What's worse, I miserably missed the mark in assessing courts and would have never concluded that court outcomes are 50/50 (complete uncertainty). I guess the oracle had it right when he avoided such type of investments. But the point is "suspecting" something does no good to your investment. Neither it adds.

On another front, Stevens proposal is a shift in the right direction. The shareholders' piece, however, needs to be adequately plugged in to make the proposal wholesome. That is, the new owners of the successors of re-chartered Fannie and Freddie should be the legacy shareholders.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6817 on: April 21, 2017, 08:11:05 AM »
@rros

I think the utility concept is a plus for shareholders. I don't think the mbs cat gtee will get much traction and I don't think the breakup of gses ever was viable or else it would have been done already. So net net I think the mba proposal is helpful

DocSnowball

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6818 on: April 21, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »
Novice question- does it make sense to build half position now, and half after restructuring/release to average out gains/risks? They are reformed now with a solid business model, but struggling with the binary nature of this investment.What do those who have been watching this game longer think?

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6819 on: April 21, 2017, 08:46:01 AM »
Novice question- does it make sense to build half position now, and half after restructuring/release to average out gains/risks? They are reformed now with a solid business model, but struggling with the binary nature of this investment.What do those who have been watching this game longer think?
So far, and for many years, these stocks have run on lack of information and collapsed on hard facts such as court rulings or government press releases. Just like the old dot coms when there was no data to analyze stocks boomed only to collapse when first data became available. Following this line of thought you should accumulate now before the cold water splash.

Thank you, Chris.