Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 1961163 times)

Sunrider

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6810 on: April 21, 2017, 07:18:03 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

I think I said it this way a few pages ago: A dollar is a dollar :)


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6811 on: April 21, 2017, 07:20:36 AM »
Quote
I believe there's a real chance that corsi's reporting on the GSE profits funding Ocare through the Treasury is somewhat accurate -- especially after reading the joint congressional report from last year

Money is fungible, how would you determine where the Dollars for a specific expense is coming from? The whole idea makes no sense to me, unless you talk about money laundry.

if you read all of corsi's reports, including a couple with govt data, and then the 200 page joint congressional report on the CSR payments, I think you too will think there's a real chance the GSE profits were used for the Ocare subsidies.
I believe spekulatius is correct. HERA enables all payments to go to Treasury's general funds. It's in the law signed in 2008. Once in general funds the money gets lost. That money -whether dividends, legal settlements or DTAs- will be no different than any other money Treasury receives. This Ocare payments strategy should be abandoned, in my view. The more transparent theme regarding the NWS has always been "never to share a dime of profit with shareholders". There is even a Treasury memo about it.

it's possible you are right, that's why I say there's a chance it was directed to CSR payments.

but once again I would say if you read the 2 joint congressional reports and corsi's reports, including the mar13 one (can be found on gselinks.com), I think you'd have some suspicion over the timing of the congressional request, then withdrawal of the CSR funding at the same time of the GSE DTA windfall, combined with the ridiculous stonewalling of the congressional investigation by the prior admin.

it's also possible that the current admin knows this but doesn't want to hurt people if their plan is to eventually stop the sweep.  but maybe you're underestimating the power of the anti-gse opposition and thus anything that tilts opinion in favor of the GSEs needs to be used, imo.
You are right. I did underestimate anti-gse oppo. But I also failed to assess correctly what a mess an investment tied to political outcomes could be. What's worse, I miserably missed the mark in assessing courts and would have never concluded that court outcomes are 50/50 (complete uncertainty). I guess the oracle had it right when he avoided such type of investments. But the point is "suspecting" something does no good to your investment. Neither it adds.

On another front, Stevens proposal is a shift in the right direction. The shareholders' piece, however, needs to be adequately plugged in to make the proposal wholesome. That is, the new owners of the successors of re-chartered Fannie and Freddie should be the legacy shareholders.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6812 on: April 21, 2017, 08:11:05 AM »
@rros

I think the utility concept is a plus for shareholders. I don't think the mbs cat gtee will get much traction and I don't think the breakup of gses ever was viable or else it would have been done already. So net net I think the mba proposal is helpful

DocSnowball

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6813 on: April 21, 2017, 08:30:22 AM »
Novice question- does it make sense to build half position now, and half after restructuring/release to average out gains/risks? They are reformed now with a solid business model, but struggling with the binary nature of this investment.What do those who have been watching this game longer think?

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6814 on: April 21, 2017, 08:46:01 AM »
Novice question- does it make sense to build half position now, and half after restructuring/release to average out gains/risks? They are reformed now with a solid business model, but struggling with the binary nature of this investment.What do those who have been watching this game longer think?
So far, and for many years, these stocks have run on lack of information and collapsed on hard facts such as court rulings or government press releases. Just like the old dot coms when there was no data to analyze stocks boomed only to collapse when first data became available. Following this line of thought you should accumulate now before the cold water splash.

Thank you, Chris.

undervalued

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Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

beaufort

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6816 on: April 21, 2017, 09:58:18 AM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Rafferty+Capitals+Bove+Notes+Potential+Game+Changer+for+Fannie+Mae+%28FNMA%29/12800715.html

I was thinking about this new hire as well.  I am not familiar with her reputation. 

Unrelated to the bill, Bove also highlighted that Celeste Brown has left her position as Treasurer of Morgan Stanley to become Deputy CFO at Fannie Mae. Commenting on why a rising star at Morgan Stanley would leave to join a company on the verge of being eliminated, he said: "My belief is that she would not do this unless she were given assurances that there was a bright future for her at Fannie Mae. Ms. Brown is special. She is unlikely to sidetrack her career to become a government employee dead set in the middle of “the swamp.”

muscleman

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6817 on: April 21, 2017, 10:29:27 AM »
https://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Rafferty+Capitals+Bove+Notes+Potential+Game+Changer+for+Fannie+Mae+%28FNMA%29/12800715.html

I was thinking about this new hire as well.  I am not familiar with her reputation. 

Unrelated to the bill, Bove also highlighted that Celeste Brown has left her position as Treasurer of Morgan Stanley to become Deputy CFO at Fannie Mae. Commenting on why a rising star at Morgan Stanley would leave to join a company on the verge of being eliminated, he said: "My belief is that she would not do this unless she were given assurances that there was a bright future for her at Fannie Mae. Ms. Brown is special. She is unlikely to sidetrack her career to become a government employee dead set in the middle of “the swamp.”

Sad that Jason Chaffetz is resigning. He seems to be one of the few guys who have guts to fight against corruption.

undervalued

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« Last Edit: April 21, 2017, 11:55:46 AM by undervalued »
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it. - Will Rogers

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #6819 on: April 22, 2017, 08:59:34 AM »
Interesting that Senators might want to do GSE reform before Dodd-Frank...

Q    Mr. Secretary, in Congress it seems like in the Senate they want to do GSE reform before Dodd-Frank reform.  Is that order you would support?  And what do you think is the biggest holdup to getting a GSE deal?
https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/04/21/press-briefing-secretary-treasury-steve-mnuchin-financial-services
You are willing to give your life, if necessary, to protect a stranger... me, my bride, each one of our children. For that I thank you every single day, veterans. And I consider you a friend. "Greater love has no one than this, that someone lay down his life for his friends." John 15:13