Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 1697577 times)

Desert_Rat

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7260 on: May 19, 2017, 10:06:02 AM »
Last I read was Paulson had about 3% of one fund so the under $10M makes sense. So Paulson's stake is irrelevant and no one knows if Icahn still holds or he doesn't (I doubt it from 2014). Someone made the point not too long ago that this whole investment is beginning to shake out to Mnuchin knows Berk from Sears.....lol

I think the commons are toast, but I'm curious of how many are beginning to think that the prfd's could wind up getting screwed too? I think the dems would be fine and quite happy if every shareholder winds up with nothing if they had their way. On the rep side, I don't see what Corker/Crapo expect to get out of reform as their plan will not work effectively and Mnuchin for his perceived flaws thus far is not going to restructure in a flawed way just to help Wells Fargo and co.

The scary part though is I watched the Corker/Watt exchange again and it just feels like Corker thought he had a plan with Mnuchin, but Watt is suddenly going rogue and is going to fuck everything up by retaining capital. Then yesterday, you get the same feeling that Mnuchin/Corker have "an understanding". Wayne recently made the comment about trusting Mnuchin and I'm really starting to question that myself.

So Watt/Corker communicate a number of times before hearing and Watt is insistent that dividends will be withheld as capital buffer; Corker is assured by Mnuchin that he expects dividends; At hearing, Corker is surprised Watt has stuck to his guns.

Pretty good. I buy that.

Yesterday Corker is all buddy-buddy with Mnuchin, regardless of Watt's decision. What does that mean if Watt doesn't back down, which I doubt he does? It may mean that Mnuchin is more in Corker's corner than we'd want, and Corker wants us to burn in hell.

But, two things: 1) Corker is not shorting FnF, and doesn't care about our fortunes, or lack thereof. As stated, he's afraid that building capital cushion kicks the can down the road. Mnuchin has assured him it won't. Corker is happy. 2) At worst, any substantial change to FnF structures will be shot down by Congress so it doesn't even matter if Mnuchin has something more devious in mind.


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7261 on: May 19, 2017, 11:20:23 AM »
you guys are fools trying to estimate what paulson holds in an unlisted security (which he need not report in sec filings) like fmcc...which he has stated his funds are the largest holder of.  this board has degenerated into abject mindlessness.  which i have been accused of from time to time...

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7262 on: May 19, 2017, 11:22:07 AM »
this board has degenerated into abject mindlessness. 

+1. as trump would say, sad!

Mephistopheles

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7263 on: May 19, 2017, 11:44:44 AM »
this board has degenerated into abject mindlessness. 

+1. as trump would say, sad!

+1. Absurd speculation going on trying to mind read government officials.

This is a 10,000 ft. bet. Does it sound illegal? Yes. Is the risk reward good? Yes.

Then bet a small amount and forget about it.

Williams406

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7264 on: May 19, 2017, 11:48:33 AM »
this board has degenerated into abject mindlessness. 

+1. as trump would say, sad!

Agreed. We're better than that--let's raise our game. Did anyone else notice Mnuchin's left nostril flare slightly when Corker said...

Flynnstone5

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7265 on: May 19, 2017, 11:55:14 AM »
Alright. Fair enough on speculating regarding positions that require no disclosure. That said, this boards been reading between the lines or trying to for how long? I don't think it's that crazy of a notion to try and read into Corkers frustration with Watt or Mnuchins responses to questions asked.

waynepolsonAtoZ

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Mephistopheles

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7267 on: May 19, 2017, 12:00:37 PM »
Alright. Fair enough on speculating regarding positions that require no disclosure. That said, this boards been reading between the lines or trying to for how long? I don't think it's that crazy of a notion to try and read into Corkers frustration with Watt or Mnuchins responses to questions asked.

It's one thing to recognize the power of incentives - billionaires fund candidate, candidate becomes President, it's not exactly a leap of faith to assume it helps the thesis.

On the other hand, trying to decipher body language and vocal tone to figure out what people are thinking is really not helpful at all.

Desert_Rat

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7268 on: May 19, 2017, 12:45:44 PM »
Jeez, calm down. I'd bet my shares are as tightly held as anyone's on this board, and I may be more aware of the wait that's required for resolution. Doesn't mean we can't shit talk about it. And BTW, any talk is useless because our fate is held by others. Not by how well FnF do, not if Mnuchin comes out tomorrow saying he'll quit if we're not made whole by Monday. Others. We can't intelligently speculate spit, or did each court rejection not teach us that.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #7269 on: May 19, 2017, 12:46:37 PM »
you guys are fools trying to estimate what paulson holds in an unlisted security (which he need not report in sec filings) like fmcc...which he has stated his funds are the largest holder of.  this board has degenerated into abject mindlessness.  which i have been accused of from time to time...
Agree. Even Gator guy doesn't include the preferreds on his funds. Optics aren't nice betting on politicians being incompetent idiots. That's a bet you don't want anyone to know.