Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2435281 times)

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8820 on: December 06, 2017, 07:49:15 PM »
I'm surprised at the comments about the commons considering Ackman's recent kind words for Corker/Warner. I would note though that one possible interpretation is that common won't be "made whole" to their pre-conservatorship levels (i.e. $75 per share) so they "may not fare as well."

+1


Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8821 on: December 07, 2017, 06:12:30 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 06:32:23 AM by Luke 5:32 »
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8822 on: December 07, 2017, 06:22:08 AM »
Maybe I am interpreting this wrong but this bill is only about stopping all FF's outflows of money. It says, while not paying dividends do not pay contributions to the housing funds. In other words, keep all the money with the companies. So the bill has been written assuming dividends will also stop. Is this correct?

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8823 on: December 07, 2017, 06:30:47 AM »
I'm surprised at the comments about the commons considering Ackman's recent kind words for Corker/Warner. I would note though that one possible interpretation is that common won't be "made whole" to their pre-conservatorship levels (i.e. $75 per share) so they "may not fare as well."

I can see made whole as in a target ie par. What is the made whole target for common? Can be any number I guess. Secondly there was some talk in the thread about the huge volume spikes in the preferred FNMAS  and FNMAH in october. Very well could have been Ackman et al. Some here thought it her was it was berkos clients liquidating. A

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8824 on: December 07, 2017, 07:02:04 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8825 on: December 07, 2017, 07:17:19 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.

Lets see what the end of the day volume is on the preferred. Put in an order for the less liquid preferred and extremely hard to come by. Who would be selling with this news at these prices?

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8826 on: December 07, 2017, 07:17:54 AM »
Here is another thing. https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/03/us/politics/government-shutdown-republicans-congress-spending.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=0

My thought being they aren't going to give up on the sweep unless they have to. I see a correction coming in terms of the valuation of the preferreds in the market. However, I'm 100 percent out of the FnF preferreds, so take it as you will.

Ouch, sorry Wayne.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8827 on: December 07, 2017, 07:18:20 AM »
Lorraine Woellert states the obvious... or what should be obvious.

https://twitter.com/Woellert/status/938752036656566272
 Lorraine‏Verified account @Woellert
Replying to @billrad

In any scenario involving shares, preferreds will come back first. Commons will be at the end of the line. Thatís my best understanding at the moment.
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8828 on: December 07, 2017, 07:19:43 AM »
Looks like screenshots from a bill (pulled from Twitter so can't verify it). See attached...

hmmm. lots to think about here.  especially since we don't know what mnuchin wants.

on one hand, he thinks extending jumpstart for a year is fine since he really does want to work with congress and avoid friction with the Republicans.

on the other hand, he could recoil from this, realizing he loses leverage in negotiations in 2018, and play chicken with Congress if they resist completing the govt funding or tax reform over this. he might also want to settle lawsuits with a 4th amendment, and this could scuttle that plan.

there's not a lot of volume in the lower price preferreds which tells me that the mkt doesn't fully buy this joe light article.

Lets see what the end of the day volume is on the preferred. Put in an order for the less liquid preferred and extremely hard to come by. Who would be selling with this news at these prices?

I try to think at things from multiple angles.

what if the joe light article was simply a way to grease through the jumpstart extension, and ultimately means little?

or what if the corker plan pays back preferreds but only over many years, which reduces the NPV?

I wouldn't be writing this if conveniently the jumpstart renewal didn't appear 12 hours after the Bloomberg article.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 07:22:04 AM by investorG »

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #8829 on: December 07, 2017, 07:24:17 AM »
I try to think at things from multiple angles.

what if the joe light article was simply a way to grease through the jumpstart extension, and ultimately means little?

That's a healthy way to look at things (from different angles).

That certainly could be the case here, but Ackman going out of his way to sing the praises of Corker and Warner is incredibly interesting and makes me lean towards the Light article having some merit.  But I'm biased given my stake in prefs.

Seems to be at least 2 bills floating around: Jumpstart extension and revised Corker/Warner that is shareholder friendly (or so it seems). 

Going to be a wild ride.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 07:27:13 AM by Luke 5:32 »
Doesn't beat around the bush, gets right down to the business of Christ laying down His life and conquering death for you, me, and everybody else that accepts Him. "Oh death, where is your sting? Oh Hell, where is your victory?" Listen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7bJzhkWVANc