Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2680913 times)

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9220 on: January 20, 2018, 04:25:47 PM »
Im going to have to go back and do some reading but if memory serves GM common was wiped in that "reorganization" or bankruptcy correct?  Anyone quickly know what happen to the preferred there?

I know this case is arguably different but it still involves the gov, UST, and shareholders.  Im going to start reading at a minimum here https://seekingalpha.com/article/135638-general-motors-officially-wiping-out-common-shareholders

FWIW Idk if anyone has a good recollection of what happened in each of the Financial Crisis bailouts but i think at a minimum may give some idea of what treasury might want to do to be additionally compensated.
« Last Edit: January 20, 2018, 04:38:50 PM by orthopa »


orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9221 on: January 20, 2018, 04:42:23 PM »
At the risk of going a little off topic this list is way longer then I thought!

https://projects.propublica.org/bailout/list

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9222 on: January 20, 2018, 05:53:43 PM »
10.47% of Freddie Mac common shares were acquired in the 529 College Savings Plan in recent month
https://beta.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/fmcc/quote.html

5.79% of Fannie Mae Common shares were acquired in the 529 College Savings plan in recent month
https://beta.morningstar.com/stocks/pinx/fnma/quote.html


Contributions to a Virginia 529 plan of up to $4,000 per account per year are deductible in computing Virginia taxable income
http://www.savingforcollege.com/529_plan_details/index.php?page=plan_details&plan_id=89


Why is this not big news?

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9223 on: January 20, 2018, 07:21:32 PM »
Mnuchin/Watt signed off on the letter of agreement (acceptable version of a 4th A) with NO drama. That is after Mnuchin said he expected the full dividends to be paid to Treasury and Corker vociferously took a shot at Watt. Truth is, anything can happen any time.

CP is not going to ring a bell the day before administrative action takes place. They did not do it before the letter of agreement. And if they take admin action, Congress will be unable/unwilling to stop it. Even if a few more senators become vociferous.
https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Documents/GSEAgreementLetters_12-21-2017.pdf

Most of us were blindsided by that agreement. In spite of being the most obvious move that had to be taken and in spite many of us having anticipated it.

Shares will fluctuate. But the most obvious thing right in front of us is Mnuchin wanting to cash in the warrants. Specially, to further consolidate the economy via fiscal policy (infrastructure). We are at the end of the line and 2019 may see a recession.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9224 on: January 20, 2018, 07:38:57 PM »
Mnuchin/Watt signed off on the letter of agreement (acceptable version of a 4th A) with NO drama. That is after Mnuchin said he expected the full dividends to be paid to Treasury and Corker vociferously took a shot at Watt. Truth is, anything can happen any time.

Great point.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9225 on: January 21, 2018, 06:18:57 AM »
Mnuchin/Watt signed off on the letter of agreement (acceptable version of a 4th A) with NO drama. That is after Mnuchin said he expected the full dividends to be paid to Treasury and Corker vociferously took a shot at Watt. Truth is, anything can happen any time.

CP is not going to ring a bell the day before administrative action takes place. They did not do it before the letter of agreement. And if they take admin action, Congress will be unable/unwilling to stop it. Even if a few more senators become vociferous.
https://www.fhfa.gov/Conservatorship/Documents/GSEAgreementLetters_12-21-2017.pdf

Most of us were blindsided by that agreement. In spite of being the most obvious move that had to be taken and in spite many of us having anticipated it.

Shares will fluctuate. But the most obvious thing right in front of us is Mnuchin wanting to cash in the warrants. Specially, to further consolidate the economy via fiscal policy (infrastructure). We are at the end of the line and 2019 may see a recession.

at this point I am not expecting any administrative action until mid to late 2019, if then.  phillips just said so (based on confirmed accounts of the end of his speech).   the expected gain from warrants of ~100bn seems inflated (would require ~$15 stock prices and likely monetized only over multiple years).  also they likely want to do comprehensive reform with charter changes (away from implied company guarantee model), which requires congress.  finally, mnuchin has given himself until 2020 to fix this.

the bull case for common for 2018, as I now think about it, rests in a) a court victory b) ironically, corker's bill passing that gives the common a decent shot of recovery in receivership (sr pref would need to be cancelled) and/or c) a democratic sweep in November.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9226 on: January 22, 2018, 08:15:15 AM »
the turn of events going forward will contain surprises no doubt.  but as i sit here, i see a sen bk ctee that has a staff that seems to be taking direction from MBA-inspired fellow travelers (as per previous failed legislation attempts) and a fhfa director who has put out much more sensible and palatable view of things.  i'll take this hand as dealt

TonyG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9227 on: January 22, 2018, 08:47:45 AM »
also, do you think its most likely Watt ran this white paper by Mnuchin?

hardincap

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9228 on: January 22, 2018, 09:14:47 AM »
@investorG, no reason to think we won't see the c+w bill soon-ish (before midterms). if the sources who leaked that prefs may get "par or close to it" are to be believed, this should be a very positive catalyst

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9229 on: January 22, 2018, 09:51:47 AM »
@investorG, no reason to think we won't see the c+w bill soon-ish (before midterms). if the sources who leaked that prefs may get "par or close to it" are to be believed, this should be a very positive catalyst

hardincap, nice to hear from you.

unfortunately we're likely headed down for now after phillips doused any hope of admin reform and his comments on shareholders.  the corker news may or may not be true, and it's old info.  and any house bill, if one is introduced, certainly won't be friendly.