Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2998048 times)

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9740 on: April 30, 2018, 10:38:33 AM »
You should all sell shares like me so that handout is even bigger and fhfa director can reduce the donwpaymnet from 3% to 0%. And increase the trust fund to zillions. And increase number of FHFA  lawyers defending the outflow of funds from the very companies he is to conserve.

Dear College Student trying to get by,

Thank you for the investment advice.

Yours truly,
Self-made millionaires on this board (via investing)

Just messing with you, Emily.  But seriously, I can sense you are letting your inner Captain Kirk steer the ship instead of relying on your inner Spock.  It should be the other way around.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20


blackcoffee

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9741 on: April 30, 2018, 11:29:09 AM »
I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

I've often found the olds like to pretend that hard work and their skills somehow make them great. I'd argue that they just got the money first, before it was inflated into dogshit.

Don't take my word for it. ask ole Druck https://vimeo.com/65731171 - he's probably a little higher level than the msg board folk.

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9742 on: April 30, 2018, 11:30:59 AM »
I already read and returned the book back to public library that you told me to read. I guess it failed to awaken inner Spock in me. I should have instead read a book on food stamps  and how to find coupons for free sandwiches.

Was just having fun with you.  Look, you have a lot going for you... you're young and you have been following very closely one of the most complicated investments you're likely to encounter in your entire life.  There is value in that.  Keep plugging away and work at keeping emotions in check and you'll be fine, whether it is with the GSE's or elsewhere.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9743 on: April 30, 2018, 02:30:14 PM »
i watched the video.  when mnuchin said govt guarantee, the context was FnF.  there was no prior mention of a treasury backstop.  is it clear to everyone when he said govt guaranty he meant treasury, rather than a guaranty by a GSE? 

i happen to think it was a very poor interview.  maria needs more sleep

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9744 on: April 30, 2018, 07:25:10 PM »
So, what is the agenda?

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative.   

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.
But turning on the commitment fee would change things little. Except for us. It doesn't look like he is going out of his way to help hedge funds/shareholders. Something has changed. The opposite more likely as these appearances happen at the exact moment of shares on the verge of a breakout. Anybody has any reason to believe J Powell and perhaps Mnuchin are in an Andrew Mellon “purge the rottenness out of the system” mission? Yellen would have stabilized markets long time ago. No help for markets, no help for hedge funds, no help for us. Why end the sweep, then?

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9745 on: May 01, 2018, 01:58:21 AM »
So, what is the agenda?

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative.   

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.
But turning on the commitment fee would change things little. Except for us. It doesn't look like he is going out of his way to help hedge funds/shareholders. Something has changed. The opposite more likely as these appearances happen at the exact moment of shares on the verge of a breakout. Anybody has any reason to believe J Powell and perhaps Mnuchin are in an Andrew Mellon “purge the rottenness out of the system” mission? Yellen would have stabilized markets long time ago. No help for markets, no help for hedge funds, no help for us. Why end the sweep, then?

officially, to get the ball rolling on building capital while still leaving most critical reform decisions to congress.   
unofficially, because it's the right thing to do after the full sr pref + 10pct interest has been repaid.

doughishere

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9746 on: May 01, 2018, 03:33:45 AM »
Anyone know what Appaloosa owns?

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9747 on: May 01, 2018, 04:55:06 AM »
So, what is the agenda?

he likely wants a govt guarantee and also permanence of his actions -- both of these require congress not administrative.   

so, as he's said a month ago, he's waiting for a new congress, likely with different leadership in place.

potential administrative action is late 2019 at a minimum.

I just wish he'd stop the sweep in 2018 and turn on the commitment fee -- we're overpaying for the backstop in a big way.
But turning on the commitment fee would change things little. Except for us. It doesn't look like he is going out of his way to help hedge funds/shareholders. Something has changed. The opposite more likely as these appearances happen at the exact moment of shares on the verge of a breakout. Anybody has any reason to believe J Powell and perhaps Mnuchin are in an Andrew Mellon “purge the rottenness out of the system” mission? Yellen would have stabilized markets long time ago. No help for markets, no help for hedge funds, no help for us. Why end the sweep, then?

officially, to get the ball rolling on building capital while still leaving most critical reform decisions to congress.   
unofficially, because it's the right thing to do after the full sr pref + 10pct interest has been repaid.
It is mind-boggling. Mnuchin himself said in more than one occasion companies need capital before any reform takes place. He must have gotten used to the idea that taxpayers' backing IS the capital.

Eye4Valu

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9748 on: May 01, 2018, 08:27:55 AM »
Mnuchin has always been clear that FNMA/FMCC reform is a priority, but not the highest priority. It's no surprise that this is getting pushed back. He is committed to a fix but is not going to reveal more on what he's thinking in that regard until he pulls back the curtains. Tim Howard was right in that the status quo will prevail until a legal victory provides some pressure, or until Mnuchin shows us what is behind the curtains. I think he realized that people hang on his every word, and that he has to be very careful what he says, especially prior to the midterms. I personally don't think he has changed his prior viewpoints on the GSEs, which should eventually be favorable to them, but has to run the political gauntlet.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #9749 on: May 01, 2018, 08:48:46 AM »
So many ways of looking at this.   I guess let me try inverting-

-If he was anti-GSE's why would he have publicly said he will not get rid of Fannie Mae?   He said this publicly in an interview a few months ago.
-If he was against the public/private model- why not say so?   What downside is there to saying he's against having public shareholders?   The current congress is clearly happy to offer legislation that is anti-shareholder - so if full privatization was Mnuchin's agenda, why not publicly say so and openly push congress towards that model today while the players are in place?   Why the hostility between Corker and Mnuchin/Trump?
-If he is worried about being criticized for taking care of his hedge fund friends, why would he be transparent in his plans?   Why not take a slower approach and make it seem as if he is analyzing the situation objectively without having a foregone conclusion?   

I don't necessarily see the downside of being transparent about a negative outcome for shareholders.   I do see downside in being transparent about a positive outcome for shareholders.   So far, he hasn't been transparent.   


With all of that said - the most likely downside scenario is this model:
http://assets1b.milkeninstitute.org/assets/Publication/Viewpoint/PDF/Toward-a-New-Secondary-Mortgage-Market.pdf

I wouldn't be stunned if that's where things end.   Seems consistent with everything we've heard so far across multiple key players. Maybe we would receive some relative compensation in lieu of ownership of the new private mutuals.  Maybe we wouldn't.

The counter-argument is that the government doesn't receive $100bn.   Well- as time goes on the current administration is receiving quarterly checks and the period for which the benefit/use of that $100bn for the current administration is shrinking.   The government is financially incented to exercise the warrants - but that assumes that is their primary incentive.   
« Last Edit: May 01, 2018, 08:56:43 AM by SnarkyPuppy »