Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3230676 times)

Eye4Valu

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10360 on: August 09, 2018, 08:43:09 PM »
If an equitable settlement can be reached, there is no reason to continue on with the lawsuits as a matter of principle. Fannie and Freddie aren't the first nationalization, and won't be the last.


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10361 on: August 09, 2018, 09:27:16 PM »
If an equitable settlement can be reached, there is no reason to continue on with the lawsuits as a matter of principle. Fannie and Freddie aren't the first nationalization, and won't be the last.
Since the prevailing view is of constructively putting things behind, I will not bring this up again.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10362 on: August 10, 2018, 05:35:55 AM »
Surely it will be challenging to get all common shareholders on board with settling litigation?  There will almost always be some form of contingent liability - in the sense that if Moelis plan is implemented, legacy common shareholders will still be suing over FHFA constitutionality and whether the initial takeover was legal?  The potential windfall to common shareholders is just so huge I don't see them all going away for $8 per share.  Amateur hour over here (me) when it comes to the legal side of the thesis though.

Interesting to know that statute of limitations re: NWS is coming up.  It would make sense to have a stopping point for any new litigation before finalizing any settlements w/ preferred litigants.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10363 on: August 10, 2018, 05:40:42 AM »
With that said, buying some more this morning.   It's truly amazing that some of the variable prefs trade at an implied 19% probability of attaining par value.   The odds are clearly much higher.   

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10364 on: August 10, 2018, 09:53:05 AM »
Right there with ya bud.

With that said, buying some more this morning.   It's truly amazing that some of the variable prefs trade at an implied 19% probability of attaining par value.   The odds are clearly much higher.

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10365 on: August 11, 2018, 08:29:10 AM »
rros is right. Shareholders after this loot are willing to settle for a whopping $3 per share? The preferred conversion to commons followed by an IPO to reissue similar junior preferred shares is just to enrich few and financial shenanigans.

Moelis plan is the best plan right now but needs lot of tweaking as it is simply funneling money.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142841825


I know many will simply feel happy by a windfall of any size, if it comes to that. Only a bitter-sweet victory for me. I simply can't believe tens of millions spent over 6 years in meaningful lawsuits will go by the wayside because suddenly the government unwinds the reason behind them. I prefer to believe Cooper is smarter than all of us and there is more to it in his latest filing.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10366 on: August 11, 2018, 02:38:18 PM »
rros is right. Shareholders after this loot are willing to settle for a whopping $3 per share? The preferred conversion to commons followed by an IPO to reissue similar junior preferred shares is just to enrich few and financial shenanigans.

Moelis plan is the best plan right now but needs lot of tweaking as it is simply funneling money.

https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=142841825


I know many will simply feel happy by a windfall of any size, if it comes to that. Only a bitter-sweet victory for me. I simply can't believe tens of millions spent over 6 years in meaningful lawsuits will go by the wayside because suddenly the government unwinds the reason behind them. I prefer to believe Cooper is smarter than all of us and there is more to it in his latest filing.
The point I tried to make is unrelated to any common shares plight, I am sorry. I owned a small amount a long time ago and sold them all back then. I have no opinion on the commons.

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10367 on: August 16, 2018, 10:40:38 AM »
@cherzeca

So as not to clutter up Tim Howard's blog, I'll ask my question about your recent post there regarding the unopposed en banc request in the All American case.

Collins will likely ask for a review of the NWS claim that was dismissed in addition to the Article II claim, and FHFA will surely oppose the NWS part of it. In your opinion, how likely is it that the 5th Circuit grants en banc on the NWS claims? I take it a review of the Article II claim can be separated from a review of the NWS claim, as in either separately or both could be reviewed without regard to the other.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10368 on: August 16, 2018, 01:41:30 PM »
@cherzeca

So as not to clutter up Tim Howard's blog, I'll ask my question about your recent post there regarding the unopposed en banc request in the All American case.

Collins will likely ask for a review of the NWS claim that was dismissed in addition to the Article II claim, and FHFA will surely oppose the NWS part of it. In your opinion, how likely is it that the 5th Circuit grants en banc on the NWS claims? I take it a review of the Article II claim can be separated from a review of the NWS claim, as in either separately or both could be reviewed without regard to the other.

excellent question.  I think all American's motion makes it incrementally more likely that 5th cir does not hear appeal of APA claim or hears it separately en banc, since that would be the non-common claim of any consolidated appeal.  just guessing though

Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10369 on: August 16, 2018, 01:42:06 PM »
We may be underestimating the role of Brian Brooks.

At some point, his name made the circles as one possible Under Secretary of Treasury. According to Joe Light, he has actually become an unofficial emissary spearheading a specific housing goal straight from the inside. And we already know he is a Mnuchin's man.

Even if JL/Bloomberg aim is to undermine administrative action by exposing illegal lobbying, how likely are they to succeed when the most important congress actors are hitting the exit door and the appetite for a new, more stringent Jumpstart is probably missing? If Brian Brooks has really been knocking doors for months now maybe there is some sense of urgency somewhere in the administration. As in "no need to wait for another Congress".

"One GSE watcher..." Hah!  Might as well be me, but it wasn't.  Still funny how the narrative at IMF (i.e. David Stevens) has dramatically changed in recent months.  Brooks as CEO?  Yes, please.  Even if it doesn't happen the fact that IMF (Stevens) is testing the waters with this kind of stuff seems like a positive.

https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1422/daily/-1000047236-1.html
One GSE watcher told us that Brian Brooks, who currently serves as Fannie Maes EVP, general counsel and corporate secretary, would make a good successor to departing company CEO Timothy Mayopoulos. However, this observer added: Hes not going to take a pay cut. Congress capped GSE CEO pay at roughly $600,000 per year. Before joining Fannie in November 2014, Brooks was vice chairman of OneWest Bank, a bank Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin once owned a stake in.
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20