Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3239384 times)



Luke 5:32

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10781 on: November 11, 2018, 12:55:52 PM »
Thank you to all those that replied to my questions.  Much appreciated!
Invest for retirement?  Sure.  But investing in eternity is infinitely more important.  Don't get it twisted.  "...but lay up for yourselves treasures in heaven, where neither moth nor rust destroys and where thieves do not break in and steal."  Matthew 6:20


rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10783 on: November 11, 2018, 05:04:26 PM »
Chris, can you expand please? Not positive that the WSJ officially confirms the admin route? I could not read it.

investorG

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10784 on: November 12, 2018, 07:04:49 AM »
the Mba cohort is pushing for legislative reform to occur before recapitalization.   

does this view hold water?  or is it better to get going on the recap in December as a catalyst / spark for legislative reform (my view)?

in theory, the potential for action would open after the congress recesses for the year in December.

mnuchin appears conservative on the matter to date.  but the moelis / paulson / schwarzman group is quite close to trump.
Mnuchin is on record saying any serious talk of reform requires companies to have capital first. But this was in the early days, before radio silence.

ok, thanks.  Mnuchin has accomplished very little in the first two years (most give tax reform credit to Brady, cohn, mcconnell, trump, etc.) and so hopefully his pencil is sharpened for this. obviously he's a smart man and few know more than him on this matter. 

there's also a chance they need to try to keep the housing market in decent shape, rather than bank-pleasing tinkering, to offset headwinds elsewhere.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10785 on: November 12, 2018, 07:30:51 AM »
Chris, can you expand please? Not positive that the WSJ officially confirms the admin route? I could not read it.

whenever I read an article that admin reform=reducing GSEs' footprint (using that euphemism), I hear the MBA whispering.  any sound article on administrative reform would address capital, the senior preferred, monetizing (or not) treasury's warrants.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10786 on: November 12, 2018, 08:02:03 AM »
I know this could have been said before but it looks like we are getting closer and closer to action. I think its pretty clear admin action will be what gets the ball rolling and I bet its the new FHFA director that does it soon after he/she is announced. As I said before I think the admin likes to float ideas to see reaction and there really has been no big push back other then MBA and but their stance has soften significantly. That being said prices have moved very little so I am adding some more preferred today.

Anyone have any prognostication on conversion. I know Luke asked this before and Im not looking for an prediction on exact conversion ratio but how it may be proceed. My thought it that is has to based off of par and as cherzeca says par is the goal and IMO non negotiable since the push behind Moelis are big preferred owners. Maybe a conversion based on eps taking into account warrants monetizing but that takes years.  And then you have to take into account dividend as if par is expected dividend come into play due to/with that.

Just trying to handicapped possibly moving to some common as market once known will price it instantly. Probably not worth wasting time on with too many unknown at this point.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10787 on: November 12, 2018, 08:11:25 AM »
But one can also say Mnuchin has accomplished more than any of those fine gents. He masterfully dodged the Trump bullet and kept his seat at Treasury. A different take: he has shown extreme loyalty. Which may mean it is Trump who really matters now.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10788 on: November 12, 2018, 08:30:37 AM »
you may recall that Paulson was Trump's transition advisor on housing finance.  either that was a head fake or Trump has incorporated Paulson's view, after his own fashion. 

getting a deal done with democrats will earn trump kudos.  any administrative deal that makes sense will likely get maxine waters support...getting a deal done doesn't have to be a passed bill.  so trump may see that timing is right for admin movement.

orthopa

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #10789 on: November 13, 2018, 06:17:00 AM »
I tried to find it back in this thread but it has become so long. Where do we stand now in Sweeney's court? Haven't heard much out of that court in a while.