Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 2877383 times)

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11640 on: February 08, 2019, 01:24:21 PM »
Overall, it looks like they want to end this thing now.

What is not clear is if they want to go the admin route alone and completely. It would make more sense from an investor's perspective -ours- to have definite legal backing so as to never see a nws again or, at a minimum, prevent whimsical actions from anyone in power down the road. After all, the biggest threat to us has been politicians. Consider the Trump team being on our side. Wouldn't themselves too like to see further investor protection? The administrative train alone may not be able to fulfill this. Thus, they may think it is essential from the perspective of shareholders (old and new) to see some bill. Perhaps even requested by big boys behind the scene.

So Calabria said something like this in that interview "receivership as an incent for Congress to act". Which ties a bit to Otting's recent leakage as part of a spark. Interestingly, Crapo crap out his outline within weeks after that. So the "incentivizing" route could be part of the plan. Which means when Calabria's hearing comes, the word receivership may float around numerous times. And if I am right, while he may not defend shareholders he may follow the line of thinking he presented in that 2014 interview: no further damage.

If receivership comes up don't let that scare you out of your position. Calabria appears to be in a different page re shareholders and will not look to create artificial damage that is not there and is not justifiable by present circumstances. In comparison to Obama's holy crusade that was more than willing to rewrite physics laws. Calabria is not going to go medieval on us.


cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11641 on: February 08, 2019, 01:55:43 PM »
well put rros

I think the Calabria hearing will be fascinating. I think he will receive "leading" questions from almost everyone on committee (shouldn't we do this? is this an option? is admin thinking about this?) and I expect him to be quite circumspect (even though he is usually quite voluble).

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11642 on: February 08, 2019, 03:28:04 PM »
From Tim Howard:

“There are a lot of odd things about the NAR’s proposal, not the least of which is their decision to outsource it to a professor from the Wharton school and an individual who works for a securitization consulting firm (and who predictably advocates for a major role in the capital structure of credit risk transfer securities, right after I said in this post that no one was doing that anymore).

To me, this is just the NAR saying to its members and fellow trade groups, “Hey, we’ve got a plan for mortgage reform, too!” But because it involves changing Fannie and Freddie into “Systemically Important Mortgage Market Utilities” (or, SIMMU’s, the NAR’s signature “new idea”) and giving their securities explicit government guarantees, it will require legislation, which puts it in the same pile as the other legislative ideas that aren’t going anywhere in the next two years.
I could make more comments about the NAR plan, but I really don’t see the point of it. I’d only add that I think we’ll see a number of other reform proposals from other sources in the coming weeks and months, as opponents of administrative reform seek to create an impression that there is “serious work” going on in this area that could lead to a breakthrough at any moment, so the administration need not be in a hurry to do anything on its own, without Congress.”

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11643 on: February 08, 2019, 03:46:55 PM »
Something is wrong. Did investors start placing Ads with this publication?

Salivating at the Prospect of a Fannie-Freddie Stock Offering?
https://www.insidemortgagefinance.com/imfnews/1_1541/daily/big-investors-salivating-to-buy-fannie-freddie-stock-1000049478-1.html

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11644 on: February 08, 2019, 04:22:40 PM »
mortgage rag:

By Paul Muolo

pmuolo@imfpubs.com

We understand that some very large institutional investors are salivating at the chance to buy newly issued Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac common, should the Treasury Department decide to exercise its option and sell its 79.9% stake in the two (very profitable) mortgage giants to the public. Who are these institutional investors? Just go down the list of the nation’s largest institutional investors that like triple-A credits…

Of course, Treasury hasn’t made that decision yet – and may never. But one thing is certain: the Trump White House is not monkeying around with GSE reform. Acting Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney (remember that name) wants it done, as does Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin…

We continue to hear chatter in the market that Treasury is pondering hiring an advisor in the event of a stock sale. And who might that lucky firm be? One name that’s come up is Perella Weinberg Partners, which assisted the federal government when it decided to free Ally Financial from the shackles of Uncle Sam’s control. We’ve heard two other names as well…

In short: If you think a stock sale by Treasury won’t happen, think again. Investors in GSE common and junior preferred are talking it up big time. Then again, they stand to benefit greatly…

What might derail a stock sale? If Congress comes up with workable legislation…

The National Association of Realtors held its GSE policy summit on Thursday. Roughly 400 people attended...

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11645 on: February 08, 2019, 05:40:41 PM »
From Tim Howard:

“There are a lot of odd things about the NAR’s proposal, not the least of which is their decision to outsource it to a professor from the Wharton school and an individual who works for a securitization consulting firm (and who predictably advocates for a major role in the capital structure of credit risk transfer securities, right after I said in this post that no one was doing that anymore).

To me, this is just the NAR saying to its members and fellow trade groups, “Hey, we’ve got a plan for mortgage reform, too!” But because it involves changing Fannie and Freddie into “Systemically Important Mortgage Market Utilities” (or, SIMMU’s, the NAR’s signature “new idea”) and giving their securities explicit government guarantees, it will require legislation, which puts it in the same pile as the other legislative ideas that aren’t going anywhere in the next two years.
I could make more comments about the NAR plan, but I really don’t see the point of it. I’d only add that I think we’ll see a number of other reform proposals from other sources in the coming weeks and months, as opponents of administrative reform seek to create an impression that there is “serious work” going on in this area that could lead to a breakthrough at any moment, so the administration need not be in a hurry to do anything on its own, without Congress.”
lol the battle of the pencil pushers.

Re Muolo: should we believe him this time?

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11646 on: February 10, 2019, 03:54:11 PM »
"Why is fellow-traveler, anti-GSE Jim Parrott on the Hill lobbying Senators and Members for the old "Jumpstart bill" to help the big banks in a last-ditch effort to grab the US secondary market, when he is not registered to lobby?"

Shouldn't responsible Hill offices and staffers ask Parrott--before engaging with him and risking personal trouble or media grief for their boss--if he, legally, is authorized to lobby and signed up with the Senate Secretary and the House Clerk?

Shouldn't those same conscientious Hill offices also demand Parrott tell them who he represents?

And if not, why not?

Just asking folks, Jim? Wells Fargo's a big bank, right?"



http://malonigse.blogspot.com/

emily

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11647 on: February 10, 2019, 07:21:03 PM »
In his piece, Bove says "If one assumes no new financing and the redemption of the senior and junior preferreds, then the (common) stocks could be worth double digits and the warrants would have a substantially higher value." 

What exactly does he mean? How would that work? It does seem to payout taxpayers well.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11648 on: February 11, 2019, 06:25:42 AM »
does anyone know more about Parrott and jumpstart than what was mentioned on Maloni's blog?

Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11649 on: February 11, 2019, 07:33:12 AM »
does anyone know more about Parrott and jumpstart than what was mentioned on Maloni's blog?

Not me, but if Trump is serious about getting FnF released then he can just veto any bill that has Jumpstart-like language in it. He can get administrative reform done before Congress gets a chance to override the veto, if they can even get enough consensus to do so.