Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3074484 times)

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11650 on: February 11, 2019, 12:13:33 PM »
does anyone know more about Parrott and jumpstart than what was mentioned on Maloni's blog?

Not me, but if Trump is serious about getting FnF released then he can just veto any bill that has Jumpstart-like language in it. He can get administrative reform done before Congress gets a chance to override the veto, if they can even get enough consensus to do so.
And that's why Corker inserted it in the end of the year omnibus bill. Any chance they throw this into the omnibus education bill being considered now?


Midas79

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11651 on: February 11, 2019, 12:25:29 PM »
does anyone know more about Parrott and jumpstart than what was mentioned on Maloni's blog?

Not me, but if Trump is serious about getting FnF released then he can just veto any bill that has Jumpstart-like language in it. He can get administrative reform done before Congress gets a chance to override the veto, if they can even get enough consensus to do so.
And that's why Corker inserted it in the end of the year omnibus bill. Any chance they throw this into the omnibus education bill being considered now?

I'd say the big difference now is that Obama wanted the Jumpstart language, or at least didn't mind it. He had no reason to veto the spending bill because of it.

Trump, on the other hand, both has different goals for the GSEs and is more willing to engage in brinksmanship. I don't think he would blink at sending the spending bill back to Congress, telling them to take out the Jumpstart language and otherwise leave it intact. I don't think there's enough will in Congress to defy Trump over something relatively minor like this.

Not to say that it can't happen, but the circumstances are different enough this time around that I don't see it as a threat. If I remember right, Corker tried this same tactic in 2017 and it didn't work. The fact that Corker himself is no longer around is another reason I don't expect Jumpstart language to pop up.

http://www.valueplays.net/2015/12/16/corker-slips-jump-start-act-in-omnibus-bill-its-irrelevant/

In addition, the language of the last Jumpstart bill allowed for trickery like changing the dividend rate on the seniors to 0.000001% and the liquidation preference to $1. It only stopped Treasury from getting rid of the shares themselves.
« Last Edit: February 11, 2019, 12:28:26 PM by Midas79 »

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11652 on: February 11, 2019, 12:45:48 PM »
the big difference to me is the absence of corker.  Parrott isn't going to "convince" a senator to insert the jumpstart language; some senator is going to really want to insert the language.  clearly corker had that chutzpah (maybe because he was short...the GSEs not just in height) but I don't know if there is that same level of interest with another senator.

remember, Mnuchin is on record saying that admin will move forward if congress doesn't.  jumpstart would be a slap in the face of the admin, saying we are not letting you have that option. the folks who would like to slap trump in the face are not necessarily the same people who would want jumpstart.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11653 on: February 11, 2019, 03:13:44 PM »
When do you all feel we may reach an inflection point, the "point of no return"?

a) Official announcement by Tsy designating a banker to restructure the companies: announces exercise of warrants placing a cap on price.

b) We hear Parrot's head knocking the floor.

c) Emily posts on the board she/(he?) has sold all shares and we may no longer hear from her(him?).

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11654 on: February 11, 2019, 03:41:43 PM »
I'll be interested to see if the Thursday 4Q GSE earnings release indicates if dividends are to be swept.  that and the sound of Emily's digital head hitting the floor

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11655 on: February 12, 2019, 03:10:19 AM »
I'll be interested to see if the Thursday 4Q GSE earnings release indicates if dividends are to be swept.  that and the sound of Emily's digital head hitting the floor
All eyes on earnings, then.

ValueMaven

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11656 on: February 12, 2019, 04:02:14 PM »
Thursday cant come soon enough!!

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11657 on: February 12, 2019, 11:34:16 PM »
I'll be interested to see if the Thursday 4Q GSE earnings release indicates if dividends are to be swept.  that and the sound of Emily's digital head hitting the floor

I'm expecting the language stays the same until after the plan had been announced. Co's can always release an 8k on the day.
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allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11658 on: February 13, 2019, 05:49:57 AM »
I share similar sentiments. Otting clearly wants to retain capital with his recent commentary on capital being the "most important thing" in order to operate the GSEs in a safe and sound manner. But I am not convinced it happens tomorrow. Matter of when not IF.

I'll be interested to see if the Thursday 4Q GSE earnings release indicates if dividends are to be swept.  that and the sound of Emily's digital head hitting the floor

I'm expecting the language stays the same until after the plan had been announced. Co's can always release an 8k on the day.

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11659 on: February 13, 2019, 06:07:08 AM »
I share similar sentiments. Otting clearly wants to retain capital with his recent commentary on capital being the "most important thing" in order to operate the GSEs in a safe and sound manner. But I am not convinced it happens tomorrow. Matter of when not IF.

I'll be interested to see if the Thursday 4Q GSE earnings release indicates if dividends are to be swept.  that and the sound of Emily's digital head hitting the floor

I'm expecting the language stays the same until after the plan had been announced. Co's can always release an 8k on the day.

Really surprised nothing has leaked though.

Also, no matter how hard I try I cant imagine the announcement happening. My brain refuses to believe its going to happen, even though we know it is.
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