Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3309210 times)

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11720 on: February 16, 2019, 04:12:55 AM »
Source on Feb 25 vote? Thats very quick

That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen....

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DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11721 on: February 16, 2019, 04:21:32 AM »
Source on Feb 25 vote? Thats very quick

That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen....

Yes, the committee wanted questions by the 19th Feb., and responses no later than 22nd Feb. So any time after that. 25th is a Monday. Not saying it'll happen then, but that would be the earliest. I don't see anything that would hold this up.
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cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11722 on: February 16, 2019, 01:31:12 PM »

abitofvalue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11723 on: February 16, 2019, 02:17:58 PM »
Silly question - if the new directors direct changes without congressional action, what's to stop future Pres Harris or Pres. Warren from reversing the decision and declaring a large dividend to treasury. 

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11724 on: February 16, 2019, 03:03:45 PM »
If they settle the lawsuits, declare the senior prefs (the vehicle that allows the NWS) fully paid off and redeemed, and recapitalize / monetize the warrants / declare the conservatorship over, i cant imagine any scenario where a future admin can reinstate the senior pfds once theyre gone. it would be past the point of no return.

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11725 on: February 16, 2019, 04:30:26 PM »
Silly question - if the new directors direct changes without congressional action, what's to stop future Pres Harris or Pres. Warren from reversing the decision and declaring a large dividend to treasury.

one reason that NWS has been so difficult to overturn is the discretion afforded conservator under HERA. once conservator calabria switches gears and recap is implemented, this will be accorded the same amount of protection. absent an "emergency" such that there is no new conservatorship, the exit from this one is golden

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11726 on: February 16, 2019, 06:47:20 PM »
I generally agree that receivership is not in the cards after listening to Calabria's hearing.  Just won't happen.  The guy is clearing pragmatic and reasonable.   Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Seahug

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11727 on: February 16, 2019, 10:16:00 PM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.


« Last Edit: February 16, 2019, 10:27:18 PM by Seahug »

DRValue

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11728 on: February 17, 2019, 03:06:29 AM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.

If common are worth a cent, juniors are worth par. Nothing but par for me.
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locutusoftexas

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #11729 on: February 17, 2019, 04:03:01 PM »

 Pref prices are truly unbelievable...

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack.

But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par.

Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal.

You're just messin' with us, so please say something useful or move on. If Bradford is considering shldq (i.e., the common), then he is not running out of steam; rather he has lost his mind and any value investing credentials he might claim.