Author Topic: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.  (Read 3222666 times)

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12360 on: May 10, 2019, 02:43:49 PM »
Until the Srs. are completely removed from above us, Jrs. will not trade much above 50% par.

Calabria deferred that to Treasury. He referred to it as "treasury's investment" putting the warrants and the Srs. in the same bag. So either by court order or by Mnuchin's signature the Srs. must get vaporized. I imagine it will all be part of an amendment and it will all happen by the 4Q. Ideally, before.

To tackle Tim Howard's apprehension to capital raising without enough guarantees, the en banc panel should deliver a really painful blow to Treasury itself. Goal being any incoming government official will think three times before playing fast-and-loose with other people's property.
« Last Edit: May 10, 2019, 02:45:57 PM by rros »


Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12361 on: May 10, 2019, 03:33:16 PM »
To tag onto @SnarkyPuppy's comments, it is great to see the goal posts for the downside scenario slowly moving forward. Going back in time the need was for a court decision to be the catalyst for commencing recap. Even more recently during the Calabria confirmation process, there was a concern from some that receivership might be a legitimate path that Calabria would want to pursue. While a lot of uncertainty and risk still remains, it seems the probability of the downside scenarios continues to be diminished.

The conversation has shifted from court outcomes/and eliminating the entities to the timing of release and what eventual capital levels of the entities will be. Even super high capital levels are much better "downside" scenarios compared to where we were a few months ago.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12362 on: May 10, 2019, 03:43:36 PM »
Uncertainty != Risk

Jcmeg35

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12363 on: May 10, 2019, 03:47:33 PM »
I fully agree. However, I think there are still a lot of risks that remain that could gum up/halt the process. While many of the risks have diminished there are still a bunch that exist.

Uncertainty != Risk

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12364 on: May 11, 2019, 05:32:02 AM »
During AB interview he said sept/oct to amend spsa (stop nws), then in fox interview he reiterated that would be completed by the fall. there is nothing inconsistent with those comments. His first half of 2020 comment was regarding an IPO which makes sense timeline wise. I know reading comprehension is hard but this is basic stuff

"Calabria = Mnuchin 2.0 .  Lots of excuses as if Calabria has been sleeping for last 10 years when he was the architect of HERA.

Bullshit. He first says October, November, then says first half of 2020.  Will keep moving the goalpost. He is ready to make another excuse of elections and into 2021 (Mnuchin had an excuse of Tax Reform and one excuse after other. Jan 6th is long gone, Otting didn't live up to his promise either. Just talk).

They need the money.  Period.   

If they see they are losing elections, they will wrap it up in first half of 2020. If not, they will not release it for another 4 years. Politics at its worst. Donít fall for it. The possibility of them losing elections is the best chance for GSE shareholders to get their money back as they will quickly release them on their way out "

cherzeca

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12365 on: May 11, 2019, 06:09:27 AM »
During AB interview he said sept/oct to amend spsa (stop nws), then in fox interview he reiterated that would be completed by the fall. there is nothing inconsistent with those comments. His first half of 2020 comment was regarding an IPO which makes sense timeline wise. I know reading comprehension is hard but this is basic stuff

"Calabria = Mnuchin 2.0 .  Lots of excuses as if Calabria has been sleeping for last 10 years when he was the architect of HERA.

Bullshit. He first says October, November, then says first half of 2020.  Will keep moving the goalpost. He is ready to make another excuse of elections and into 2021 (Mnuchin had an excuse of Tax Reform and one excuse after other. Jan 6th is long gone, Otting didn't live up to his promise either. Just talk).

They need the money.  Period.   

If they see they are losing elections, they will wrap it up in first half of 2020. If not, they will not release it for another 4 years. Politics at its worst. Donít fall for it. The possibility of them losing elections is the best chance for GSE shareholders to get their money back as they will quickly release them on their way out "

I just dont know why calabria is saying all of this stuff, unless the treasury plan is complete and investment bankers have been consulted.

allnatural

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12366 on: May 11, 2019, 06:45:25 AM »
As Otting said (speaking on behalf of FHFA at the time), admin already has a plan determined and everyone is on board. I believe Calabrias recent media appearances were purposefully done, as another commentor mentioned, to start getting the market comfortable with the plan and reduce shock and awe when formally announced.

SnarkyPuppy

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12367 on: May 11, 2019, 07:23:00 AM »
During AB interview he said sept/oct to amend spsa (stop nws), then in fox interview he reiterated that would be completed by the fall. there is nothing inconsistent with those comments. His first half of 2020 comment was regarding an IPO which makes sense timeline wise. I know reading comprehension is hard but this is basic stuff

"Calabria = Mnuchin 2.0 .  Lots of excuses as if Calabria has been sleeping for last 10 years when he was the architect of HERA.

Bullshit. He first says October, November, then says first half of 2020.  Will keep moving the goalpost. He is ready to make another excuse of elections and into 2021 (Mnuchin had an excuse of Tax Reform and one excuse after other. Jan 6th is long gone, Otting didn't live up to his promise either. Just talk).

They need the money.  Period.   

If they see they are losing elections, they will wrap it up in first half of 2020. If not, they will not release it for another 4 years. Politics at its worst. Donít fall for it. The possibility of them losing elections is the best chance for GSE shareholders to get their money back as they will quickly release them on their way out "

I just dont know why calabria is saying all of this stuff, unless the treasury plan is complete and investment bankers have been consulted.

Everything has been pre-planned and agreed.  Going through motions.  Amendment to the contract has to be "negotiated" (Calabria has purposely used this word over and over again to signal independence).  I believe he takes his job as regulator seriously but at the same time has everything mapped out w Tsy - there guys aren't idiots and they're not risking their names w/ sloppy execution.  Everything's mapped out and they are going through the motions (incremental info to slowly get the market comfortable - boil the frog munger analogy).

This is telling by the fact that in parts  of the interview he claims he's barely talked to tsy and needs to arm length negotiate, yet in other parts he's confidently discussing a solidified plan (recap without congress w/ dates).

The notion that they are just stepping into the public and winging these statements is just simply not the case. 

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12368 on: May 11, 2019, 09:22:04 AM »
"Calabria = Mnuchin 2.0 .  Lots of excuses as if Calabria has been sleeping for last 10 years when he was the architect of HERA.

Bullshit. He first says October, November, then says first half of 2020.  Will keep moving the goalpost. He is ready to make another excuse of elections and into 2021 (Mnuchin had an excuse of Tax Reform and one excuse after other. Jan 6th is long gone, Otting didn't live up to his promise either. Just talk).

They need the money.  Period.   

If they see they are losing elections, they will wrap it up in first half of 2020. If not, they will not release it for another 4 years. Politics at its worst. Donít fall for it. The possibility of them losing elections is the best chance for GSE shareholders to get their money back as they will quickly release them on their way out "
I agree with everybody else. Pre-planned, motions... as per Snarky. Otting's Jan leak was telling.

rros

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Re: FNMA and FMCC preferreds. In search of the elusive 10 bagger.
« Reply #12369 on: May 11, 2019, 03:16:44 PM »
The largest IPO ever, Alibaba, raised 25 billion. More recently, Uber raised 8 billion. How in the world will the government raise 100 billion here (4 Alibabas)? Or even 50 billion? While I agree things are moving along, it is disconcerting that the sweep hasn't been stopped on Calabria's day 1.