Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 402341 times)

rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1720 on: February 18, 2018, 02:13:10 PM »
Interesting article in The Globe about drug dealing, moving money in and out of china, and money laundry all done through Vancouver real estate.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/investigations/real-estate-money-laundering-and-drugs/article38004840/


Liberty

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alpha

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1722 on: May 15, 2018, 10:58:43 AM »
https://twitter.com/alex_macdonald/status/996416773057474561



Some of the articles and statistics coming out about the GTA real estate market this year have been crazy.

Like this one about a Nigerian bus driver grandma that owns two $950,000 homes but is unable to come up with 30k cash to get more favorable financing when her pre-construction investment home lost 100k in value.

https://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2018/01/29/how-a-softer-housing-market-has-crushed-pre-construction-home-buyers-dreams.html

There have been many more about middle class people losing 400-500k in real estate deals that are falling through because of declining prices.

On the other hand condo prices in GTA have sky rocketed. Young buyers are now paying 600k for 1 bedroom shoe box condos.




Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1723 on: May 15, 2018, 12:43:07 PM »
With the rates on the 5-year bonds going up in Canada, it'll be interesting to see what happens when mortgages start going higher again.
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obtuse_investor

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1724 on: May 15, 2018, 04:11:00 PM »
I was researching Ontario political party platforms last night. Not surprisingly, pc party doesn't have a published platform. Although their public ramblings seem to suggest that they do not appreciate the recent regulation that may have tempered the Toronto prices.

They are doing very good in the polls. Could the animal spirits return to Toronto real estate if Ford wins? Or is this price slide caught in the downward spiral?



Disclosure: I rent in Toronto. I would like to buy at reasonable prices.
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rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1725 on: May 15, 2018, 06:20:07 PM »
I was researching Ontario political party platforms last night. Not surprisingly, pc party doesn't have a published platform. Although their public ramblings seem to suggest that they do not appreciate the recent regulation that may have tempered the Toronto prices.

They are doing very good in the polls. Could the animal spirits return to Toronto real estate if Ford wins? Or is this price slide caught in the downward spiral?

Disclosure: I rent in Toronto. I would like to buy at reasonable prices.
The short answer is that they're full of it and can't do nothing about it. I can elaborate if you wish.

As an aside if you rent in Toronto given the way things are now, you're actually getting a pretty good deal. (Deal goodness varies depending on what you rent). Prices would actually have to move quite a bit before you would get anything that seems "reasonable".

obtuse_investor

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1726 on: May 15, 2018, 06:52:12 PM »
Looking south of the border, one can be "full of it" and yet can unleash animal spirits. People just have to believe the narrative and it's off to the races again.

Please do elaborate though. Isn't it a possibility? Or is my reasoning incorrect? I don't consume politics on a regular basis. I am not in touch.


As for renting, I agree. With the way rental yields are, I am happy to take the other side of the trade. Nothing lasts forever and I am extremely patient.

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SafetyinNumbers

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1727 on: May 15, 2018, 06:56:39 PM »
Looking south of the border, one can be "full of it" and yet can unleash animal spirits. People just have to believe the narrative and it's off to the races again.

Please do elaborate though. Isn't it a possibility? Or is my reasoning incorrect? I don't consume politics on a regular basis. I am not in touch.


As for renting, I agree. With the way rental yields are, I am happy to take the other side of the trade. Nothing lasts forever and I am extremely patient.

It might but I would think the changes in lending rules and the higher interest rates have changed the behaviour not any change in the way Torontonians think about buying vs renting.
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rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1728 on: May 15, 2018, 07:15:05 PM »
Looking south of the border, one can be "full of it" and yet can unleash animal spirits. People just have to believe the narrative and it's off to the races again.

Please do elaborate though. Isn't it a possibility? Or is my reasoning incorrect? I don't consume politics on a regular basis. I am not in touch.

As for renting, I agree. With the way rental yields are, I am happy to take the other side of the trade. Nothing lasts forever and I am extremely patient.
Ok, I won't go into the PC platform cause it's mostly nonsense. You can go through it on digest it on your own time.

But about the "animal spirits". In general you are correct that politicians can be full of it and unleash animal spirits - basically people doing dumb things with money. That has been happening for millennia. So it's not an unreasonable premise.

However, in this particular case I don't think it will work. Here's why. The main ingredient you need in order to unleash animal spirits, beside bs, is credit. And what regulation B20 does effectively is cut off credit from the animal spirits. You are a someone who makes a lot of money and can afford an overpriced house? No problem, here's a mortgage. You are a Chinese housewife who has a 25% down payment for million dollar home? Sorry, no credit for you. You're just a regular middle class dude that wants to dive in and own x number or properties? No can do.

B20 is the massive thing that didn't sink in yet. OSFI decided that the party's over and shut off the credit tap. Game over. I want to see the animal spirits that speculate with 100% down.

Disclosure: I know real estate investors that buy properties with 100% cash. But they're about as far from the animal spirit type as you can get.

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