Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 482781 times)

Cigarbutt

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1890 on: April 04, 2019, 04:24:30 AM »
Cigar, i am not a real estate expert but it looks like Greater Vancouver is experiencing a correction in housing prices, with prices down 7-8% year over year. Inventory is up 40-50% depending on the area and type of residence.

If inventory continues to grow and prices continue to come down the risk is does it start to impact consumer confidence and consumer spending amd the broader economy? Or do bargain hunters jump in and we see prices stabilize? I have been so wrong on real estate for so many years (bubble) i have little confidence in my ability to provide a reasonable assessment of where we are going in 2019 and 2020 :-)
I appreciate the balanced response.
Vancouver is a nice place and warrants a premium :) but, if I were to move there, would probably wait a while before buying.

@scorpioncapital
I don't mind investing in stocks that have negative equity, as long as future cashflows warrant it.


Aberhound

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1891 on: April 16, 2019, 03:51:19 PM »


Interestingly Armstrong's model shows rises in the Vancouver market in 2020 and 2022 similar to the fall in 2018 and gives the green light for purchases in those years. I wonder what the model is picking up? Capital flight from the financial crises elsewhere? Much colder winters in eastern Canada with continuing improvement in our winters? It has rarely been as sunny and pleasant as last winter (I'm Vancouver born) and my garden and grass is loving it. As I see the chart isn't it a prediction of the influx of wealth being generated in Asia because of the Silk Road offset by stupid policies light the 20% foreign buyers tax etc.? Vancouver is an Asian friendly city with the attraction of clean air and water and abundant nature so will continue to be a magnet so long as the governments do not get too greedy or too stupid.

Viking

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1892 on: April 16, 2019, 04:22:12 PM »
Aberhound, perhaps it is crazy low interest rates in the coming years. With the Fed indicating it is done tightening and likely to stop negative QE and to cut rates as a next move we llok to be returning to the free money paradigm. This likely means asset prices will resume their upward path. Good for stocks and real estate.

Aberhound

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1893 on: April 17, 2019, 02:04:54 PM »
Aberhound, perhaps it is crazy low interest rates in the coming years. With the Fed indicating it is done tightening and likely to stop negative QE and to cut rates as a next move we llok to be returning to the free money paradigm. This likely means asset prices will resume their upward path. Good for stocks and real estate.

And maybe the hellholes reported in LA, San Francisco and Seattle in this article will divert some demand back to Vancouver:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-17/san-francisco-los-angeles-seattle-3-formerly-beautiful-west-coast-cities-have

Pauly

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1894 on: April 17, 2019, 02:56:23 PM »
Aberhound, perhaps it is crazy low interest rates in the coming years. With the Fed indicating it is done tightening and likely to stop negative QE and to cut rates as a next move we llok to be returning to the free money paradigm. This likely means asset prices will resume their upward path. Good for stocks and real estate.

And maybe the hellholes reported in LA, San Francisco and Seattle in this article will divert some demand back to Vancouver:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-04-17/san-francisco-los-angeles-seattle-3-formerly-beautiful-west-coast-cities-have

Jeez, I know it's foolish to read the comments below an article, but it looks like Zerohedge has really become a cesspool.

alpha

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1895 on: May 06, 2019, 04:07:26 PM »

Poloz is now asking the banks to come up with more creative ways to allow people to take on more housing debt, which he justified s by warning them not to repeat the cdo/mbs mess in the 2008 US market.

Quote
He said there's some momentum in Canada towards the creation of a private market for mortgage-backed securities. Poloz said it would provide a more-flexible source of longer-term funding for uninsured mortgages, which are becoming more popular.

They would have to be designed carefully, he said, because mortgage-backed securities were central to the "sub-prime debacle" ahead of the financial crisis more than a decade ago.

https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/poloz-issues-call-to-arms-for-mortgage-market-innovations-1.1254406