Author Topic: POLL: Fed and interest rates  (Read 19389 times)

JimBowerman

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #110 on: July 26, 2019, 07:59:48 PM »
Asset inflation. Which could lead to limited, but ultimately unsustainable, amounts of inflation elsewhere.

So...so far we've seen asset price inflation which will eventually spill over into CPI but we haven't seen that spill over yet?  But its coming? Any eta on when you think it's coming?

What do you mean exactly by "elsewhere"? Billions prices project? CPI?

 Are we all having skin in the game and holding massive short treasury positions for this "second coming" of inflation that is always just around the corner? 10 years and counting.....

(if its only stocks and other assets that ever go up, and the price of milk and bread don't ever go up....then haven't we found nirvana and a perpetual motion machine?)

In a society where a central bank does unlimited printing w/ only stocks going up and the price of milk and bread remaining flat - everyone would pay a 0% tax rate and see their net worth go sky high

Its either that or we need to all start admitting (after 10 years) that "asset price inflation"/"shadow stats inflation" /"pushing on a string", etc. etc. theories are exactly wrong
« Last Edit: July 26, 2019, 08:22:33 PM by JimBowerman »


RuleNumberOne

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #111 on: July 26, 2019, 08:20:16 PM »
According to Wikipedia, Russia had hyperinflation in the first 6 years after the Bolshevik Revolution until the gold standard was put in.

We could repeat the Bolshevik experience by making the ECB buy equities. They have already made debt free (i.e. nationalized it and removed free-market pricing.) The Bolshevik experience is promising. We could have the central bank own the equity of all companies and thereby generate prosperity.


TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #112 on: July 27, 2019, 07:52:57 AM »
Asset inflation. Which could lead to limited, but ultimately unsustainable, amounts of inflation elsewhere.

So...so far we've seen asset price inflation which will eventually spill over into CPI but we haven't seen that spill over yet?  But its coming? Any eta on when you think it's coming?

What do you mean exactly by "elsewhere"? Billions prices project? CPI?

 Are we all having skin in the game and holding massive short treasury positions for this "second coming" of inflation that is always just around the corner? 10 years and counting.....

(if its only stocks and other assets that ever go up, and the price of milk and bread don't ever go up....then haven't we found nirvana and a perpetual motion machine?)

In a society where a central bank does unlimited printing w/ only stocks going up and the price of milk and bread remaining flat - everyone would pay a 0% tax rate and see their net worth go sky high

Its either that or we need to all start admitting (after 10 years) that "asset price inflation"/"shadow stats inflation" /"pushing on a string", etc. etc. theories are exactly wrong

I think it's quite possible we've already seen it. It could be the only reason inflation has been 1-2% instead of -1 or 0%.

But again, I'm not supporting the idea. Just not hard for me to believe blowing a bubble that makes everyone temporary millionaires could lead to unsustainable inflation in areas outside of stocks as people liquidate and spend their newfound riches.

John Hjorth

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #113 on: July 27, 2019, 11:31:18 AM »
... According to Wikipedia, Russia had hyperinflation in the first 6 years after the Bolshevik Revolution until the gold standard was put in. ...

Yeah, tell me about it - have you ever studied something more recent, - something like the doings of Elvira Nabiullina.

To me, naturally, you haven't, and thereby you don't have a clue about what you're talking about. Please prove me wrong here.
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RuleNumberOne

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #114 on: July 27, 2019, 12:54:07 PM »
The obstacle to studying more recent stuff is the news in Europe is not in the English language.

Unlike these hedge funds, I can't go to Europe to investigate when and why things are going to crash. I will open a relevant thread to attract more discussion. I have some urgent questions, I will also read up on Nabiullina.

Spekulatius

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #115 on: September 14, 2019, 07:52:57 AM »
For the macro folks out there, anybody noticed that the inflation numbers are pointing up and pretty fast apparently. YoY change is ~2.7% now and the monthly annualized change ~3.6% and high 3 month in a row. Of course there is a signal and the noise issue, but this seems worrisome. The inflation target is 2% and we are way above that. I wonder what the Fed officials are thinking about this.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/
« Last Edit: September 14, 2019, 07:28:12 PM by Spekulatius »
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TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #116 on: September 14, 2019, 04:02:50 PM »
For the macro folks out there, anybody noticed that the inflation numbers are pointing up and pretty fast apparently. YoY change is ~2?7% now and the monthly annualized change ~3.6% and high 3 month in a row. Of course there is a signal and the noise issue, but this seems worrisome. The inflation target is 2% and we are way above that. I wonder what the Fed officials are thinking about this.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/inflationproject/stickyprice/

More concerning for bond longs, but not so much for the Fed yet I don't think.

I imagine that much like employment, inflation is a trailing indicator that always appears at it's "best" prior to a downturn - we'd need to see a sustained rise before it becomes an issue. Not just a few months worth.

Also, I have to believe the tarriffs are a portion of that meaning it's transitory and potentially reversible and not emblematic of an elevated trend in inflation.