Yield Curve Inverting

[meiroy]

I like grannis' work on this:  http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-yield-curve-is-not-forecasting.html

Yes, he's fantastic. He does have two strong biases, though: 1. he's 100% supply side, everything begins and ends with that.  2. he doesn't really get China's economy and its real impact on the U.S. economy. 


"In any event, it's possible, and likely, that good news on the global trade front could alter the bond market's expectations rather dramatically, resulting in a steeper yield curve and ultimately a stronger economy. "

China/USA issues are not going to be resolved any time soon.

Having said that, he does post clear data which is quite useful.

I'm betting that if there's a real panic starting the Fed will not raise until things calm down, if not next time then the one that follows.

[nickenumbers]

Great info and answers everyone.  Thank you.  I have started to read thru Scott Grannis's blog postings, etc.  Great info.

I am a banana eating monkey, and I am getting smarter by the day!

[Cigarbutt]

Great info and answers everyone.  Thank you.  I have started to read thru Scott Grannis's blog postings, etc.  Great info.

I am a banana eating monkey, and I am getting smarter by the day!

One has to wonder how much of available time should be spent on this (less than 5%?).

Some of the blog postings have more value.
Over time, the author has shown the ability to change opinions with changing facts which is good but also has evolved his narrative despite facts which is more concerning but don't we all do that?

Here are two samples to reflect upon:
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2016/08/qe-and-amazing-demand-for-money.html
This post corresponds to the feed the pigs cartoon shown elsewhere when discussing QE.
People say it's more difficult to lose weight to offset the gain and there's the yo-yo effect.

http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2009/07/money-velocity-is-likely-stabilizing-4.html
This post deals with money velocity. The author has always believed that the most important factor consisted in finally adopting a risk-seeking attitude (?!) and unleashing animal spirits in order to stimulate fixed investment and increase real productivity so that the yield curve could steepen and we could all live happy forever after. Interestingly, the Fairfax team has somewhat equivocally espoused that thesis too.
Recently, the market has refused to cooperate and maybe it's time for a different tone (tune?).

Please continue yor banana learning and show old monkeys new tricks.