Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 486679 times)

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #100 on: December 04, 2013, 10:30:28 AM »
Horizon Kinetics commentary on Canadian REITs.  No real mention of the danger of housing prices falling--I presume that is an issue for REITs?  (I've always ignored them as they have seemed risky to me, but don't know much of the mechanics).

http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/December_Commentary_Canadian_REIT.pdf

I'm not expert on REITs, but when Garth Turner mentions them, he seems to think that they'll do ok because the renting market isn't nearly as bubbly as the buying one (and many REITs are heavy or exclusively in the commercial sector).
« Last Edit: December 04, 2013, 10:55:44 AM by Liberty »
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Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #101 on: December 04, 2013, 10:33:15 AM »
Via many people on Twitter lately:

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racemize

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #102 on: December 04, 2013, 10:42:53 AM »
Why does that chart say "Household debt in Asia" and then list a bunch of non Asian countries?  Does it mean something other than debt in those countries?

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #103 on: December 04, 2013, 10:54:18 AM »
Why does that chart say "Household debt in Asia" and then list a bunch of non Asian countries?  Does it mean something other than debt in those countries?

Not sure. It's from the Economist, so I'd guess it was in an article about that and they also included some other countries as comparison points.
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fareastwarriors

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #104 on: December 04, 2013, 12:15:28 PM »

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #105 on: December 04, 2013, 01:17:33 PM »
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-04/wealthy-global-buyers-favoring-montreal-spur-17-gains.html

Wealthy Global Buyers Favoring Montreal Spur 17% Gains

One thing I've found out the more I learned about Canadian RE is that there's little you can trust.

No third party, transparent body is keeping track of sales. You get stats from realtors, who mutilate the numbers so much you don't know what they mean anymore. They silently go back and revise past year numbers so the YoY comparisons look better, some houses listed in 2-3 systems get reported as 2-3 sales when they are sold, they throw out data arbitrarily, etc.

And then they play the media little a fiddle most of the time, with realtor press releases reprinted as news and even going as far as having realtors of asian origin pose as wealthy chinese buyers for TV crews in Vancouver (in a now infamous yellow helicopter ride), with bankers being cited as sources for most RE articles (as if big banks were unbiased parties in this).

It's all about sentiment. Everybody thinks prices are very high, and the only thing that can make them buy is if they're sure they'll keep going up and that waiting will price them out (fear) and cost them more. When sentiment turns, it'll get interesting, because it's not as if most people think that prices are reasonable and growth is just a nice bonus; they feel like they need it both to justify buying and to feel like it'll help them carry all that debt later later thanks to capital gains, and of course they don't want to miss out on all the profits everybody are making on their houses (greed).

So it's very possible that some area of Montreal is very hot. Things might even keep going across the country for years. But I'm certain it's not sustainable, and what can't keep going won't. In the meantime, I'm happy renting and I take what I read about RE with a big grain of salt.
« Last Edit: December 04, 2013, 01:37:30 PM by Liberty »
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nkp007

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #106 on: December 04, 2013, 02:47:15 PM »
Well said Liberty. The entire industry is incentivized to keep the ball rolling.

All the bubble thumpers seem to be using reasonable rationale and logic.

It's scary that all sides agree that real estate is expensive and there will be some sort of correction. It's the extent that is being debated (soft landing vs crash).

Liberty

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« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 10:01:33 AM by Liberty »
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Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #108 on: December 13, 2013, 07:38:22 AM »
« Last Edit: December 13, 2013, 10:01:03 AM by Liberty »
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ajc

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #109 on: December 13, 2013, 07:48:30 AM »
http://twitpic.com/dok1jn/full

Should be fine. It'll be different this time. Just you wait...