Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 487220 times)

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #140 on: August 27, 2014, 06:05:48 PM »
Thanks for sharing that story left coast. I think the guy is fooling himself, thinking that rates could never rise. That makes no sense. Eventually they will. They will have to if the economy starts booming or Inflation starts rising. This is not going to end well.

just look at Japan - it is still low rates there for many , many years --

rates could rise in the US - i doubt it'd rise in Canada any time soon as our economy is too dependent on the construction industry...  and we need the low rates to give manufacturing an advantage.   there's no easy way out of this in my opinion...



Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #141 on: August 27, 2014, 06:27:05 PM »
just look at Japan - it is still low rates there for many , many years --

And where is Japan's real estate market now compared to where it was at its peak?

Not that it matters. Canada is very different from Japan on so many levels, I don't think it's a very useful country to compare it to.
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alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #142 on: August 27, 2014, 06:40:55 PM »
This would go on longer but we all know this won't end well, and the pendulum will swing back. Remember how US bubble get busted, is it because of rising interest rate?

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #143 on: August 27, 2014, 07:00:36 PM »
This would go on longer but we all know this won't end well, and the pendulum will swing back. Remember how US bubble get busted, is it because of rising interest rate?

In the same way that the stock market is (somewhat) forward-looking, I think the RE market is. So you won't need a lot of people to lose their shirt before things turn, you'll just need a change of sentiment; people who don't think anything bad can happen change their mind and realize that trees don't grow to the sky. Anything could be a catalyst. Then the marginal buyer who doesn't think twice today about getting a gigantic mortgage will evaporate.

Otherwise, what will it be? In 10 years everybody making 65k will live in 2-3 million dollar houses? While similar houses in the U.S. go for maybe 400k?
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rukawa

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #144 on: August 27, 2014, 07:10:32 PM »
My view was always that US RE experiences short sharp big corrections. Canada RE just goes flat for a long time. So my view is that there will be no correction. Canada will just have flat RE for the next 20 years.

50centdollars

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #145 on: August 27, 2014, 07:24:30 PM »
My view was always that US RE experiences short sharp big corrections. Canada RE just goes flat for a long time. So my view is that there will be no correction. Canada will just have flat RE for the next 20 years.

It didn't stay flat in the late eighties. House prices were cut in half in the toronto area. Housing bubbles always end badly. Won't be any different this time either. The higher it goes up, the harder it will fall.
50centdollars

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #146 on: August 27, 2014, 07:27:00 PM »
I don't disagree with a correction.
But I think those foreseeing a big drop should consider that in the 80s we didn't have much millionaires from China, a country where rich people want to move out of for their wellbeing.




My view was always that US RE experiences short sharp big corrections. Canada RE just goes flat for a long time. So my view is that there will be no correction. Canada will just have flat RE for the next 20 years.

It didn't stay flat in the late eighties. House prices were cut in half in the toronto area. Housing bubbles always end badly. Won't be any different this time either. The higher it goes up, the harder it will fall.

alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #147 on: August 27, 2014, 07:55:43 PM »
I don't disagree with a correction.
But I think those foreseeing a big drop should consider that in the 80s we didn't have much millionaires from China, a country where rich people want to move out of for their wellbeing.




My view was always that US RE experiences short sharp big corrections. Canada RE just goes flat for a long time. So my view is that there will be no correction. Canada will just have flat RE for the next 20 years.

It didn't stay flat in the late eighties. House prices were cut in half in the toronto area. Housing bubbles always end badly. Won't be any different this time either. The higher it goes up, the harder it will fall.

Check out what happen to RE when the main buyers are foreigners. That's not a positive in longer term.

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #148 on: August 27, 2014, 08:46:01 PM »
Garth Turner writes a lot about the so called 'hot-asian-money' and how it isn't nearly as much as most people think. Lots of media and realtor hype and little substance on a scale that could prop up the whole market. Many Canadians of Asian ancestry are being mistaken for foreigners too.
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ERICOPOLY

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #149 on: August 27, 2014, 09:17:37 PM »
He through me for a loop. He told me that several years ago, he firmly believed that Vancouver real estate was due for a major correction, but after watching prices continue to rise and rise, he's since changed his mind and joined the camp that thinks it will just keep going up because borrowing is so cheap and "everyone wants to live here."

Canada is too cold for everyone to want to live there.