Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 493790 times)

nodnub

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #580 on: March 04, 2016, 01:00:09 AM »
Interesting fact - permanent residents from China to BC are down 50% in the last 10 years.

City of Vancouver expects a 1,000 demolition permits this year. Could it be developers who own those properties. From what I understand there are a lot of individuals who have become builders and a lot of them own anywhere from 2 to 20 properties that they re- develop. Could this be the reason for the shortage in supply and crazy prices?

Can you clarify what you mean by this, or provide a source?  It is ambiguous as it is written.
permanent residents from China to BC are down 50% in the last 10 years.


alertmeipp

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #581 on: March 04, 2016, 05:05:40 AM »
Legal, but scummy.

I don't actually see why this is scummy (and I tend to have very strong opinions about real estate). As long as the agent wasn't representing the original seller, I don't see the problem.

Like, once the deal is signed, the original seller has got what they want, and the buyer has all the risk.  Would it still be scummy if the market dropped, and the agent sold the assignment for a $200,000 loss rather than a $200,000 gain?

Is it scummy if a market maker in the stock market buys shares for you for $10, and then sells them 30 seconds later for $10.10? 

I don't see any real difference.  I think that this issue is simply media-created outrage over something that's actually ethical (and kind of stupid for the agent to do.) 

The people want to blame someone for the ridiculous Vancouver housing prices, so would prefer to blame agents rather than the stupid people buying houses that they can't actually afford, the Bank of Canada trying to keep the bubble economy alive by pumping debt into the system through low interest rates, and CMHC lubricating the system by pushing a healthy dose of moral hazard onto the banks.

I think some are thinking that's more trading with insider info.

wisdom

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mcliu

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #583 on: March 04, 2016, 08:48:11 AM »
Do you have to be a permanent residence to buy a house?

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #584 on: March 04, 2016, 09:09:56 AM »
No - this was in reference to the anecdote that both their neighbors were from China. But, I don't see rich investors buying houses that are an hour out of the city in the suburbs for $1 mil (no backyard/no views). The suburb (Langley) is where most professional families are moving to as it is considered affordable.

And no Vancouver is no silicon valley - the city has one of the lowest median household incomes amongst major Canadian cities.
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 09:16:47 AM by wisdom »

nodnub

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #585 on: March 04, 2016, 10:31:24 AM »
http://www.vancouversun.com/Permanent+residents+from+China+drops+half/11688716/story.html

Residents from China drop by half

Wisdom, thank you for the source.
This would be a more accurate summary.
VANCOUVER — Overseas immigration to B.C. is down 22 per cent in the past decade, driven largely by a plunge in migration from China, which has long been this province’s largest source of immigrants.

The number of permanent residents moving to B.C. from China has fallen by half, to just over 6,000 in 2014 from 13,600 in 2005, according to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada. China’s proportion of B.C.’s new permanent residents dropped to 17 per cent from 30 per cent in the decade.


Immigration is what makes Canada a great country and will be critical to our future growth. I support it completely.

"Permanent resident" is people that have applied and received permanent status in Canada. This is different from "resident" as you summarized in both your comments above. A Permanent Resident is on track to eventually become a Canadian citizen, if they choose to. A resident is just some one that is living here (on a visa or whatever).

Some people choose to immigrate to Canada and work here and pay taxes here.  But some are just getting their money out of their own country and invest it in real estate in Canada. If real estate continues on the current path it is possible the government will add a tax on foreign ownership of property. There are other countries that have similar taxes or restrictions on property ownership.

Do you know the expression, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics?".  I can find a statistic to prove any argument I want. But to understand the data in context you need a broader perspective and more information. And I don't think we have all the data in front of us. For example, what if Harper made budget cuts in the immigration processing dept in 2013 and there was a huge backlog in 2014 so the numbers of approved were low?

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #586 on: March 04, 2016, 10:39:53 AM »
Nodnub - I was talking about PR's. It was just that I used a short form when you asked for the source. If you look at the graph in the article it does not look like a one time read - It looks like that is the trend. It is possible that 2004 was an anomaly. I do not know for sure though.

mcliu

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #587 on: March 04, 2016, 12:08:19 PM »
With homes trading so far above replacement value, why aren't there people building homes like crazy in Toronto and Vancouver? The margins must be huge. And it's not like there's a shortage of land..

gary17

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #588 on: March 04, 2016, 12:48:47 PM »
With homes trading so far above replacement value, why aren't there people building homes like crazy in Toronto and Vancouver? The margins must be huge. And it's not like there's a shortage of land..

homes aren't trading above replacement value -  it's the lots - the dirt - that's worth a fortune.

a house of $1.5M is $1.45M in the price of the lot; not the house!

KCLarkin

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #589 on: March 04, 2016, 12:54:14 PM »
With homes trading so far above replacement value, why aren't there people building homes like crazy in Toronto and Vancouver? The margins must be huge. And it's not like there's a shortage of land..

At least one of your assumptions is incorrect.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_estate/2015/10/24/the-rise-of-willowdale-torontos-hottest-new-neighbourhood.html

"Land values alone have escalated so dramatically the last couple of years in this area just east of the North York Civic Centre that Jalali says banks are appraising most original homes at 97 per cent land value."
« Last Edit: March 04, 2016, 01:01:55 PM by KCLarkin »