Author Topic: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada  (Read 325199 times)

rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1660 on: August 21, 2017, 12:56:18 PM »
Condo prices in the downtown core have jumped significantly over the last few months. Rents for 1 bedroom condos in my building have gone from 1950/month in April to 2400/month now. A 1+1 bedroom unit in my building was just listed for 30% more than it sold for 20 months ago and the real estate agent told me he had 3 requests from buyers to view it the same afternoon he listed it.

There have been a number of local news articles about fierce competition and bidding wars over rental units lately.

The prices seem incredibly high when compared to local wages but there seems to be no shortage of buyers willing to pay these prices from what I can see.
Condo prices in the 416 are down by 8% from April to July.

Edit: It is true that it has been the best performing real estate class during the period. Most likely benefiting from substitution because of lower price tag and people that can't perform NPVs on maintenance fees.
« Last Edit: August 21, 2017, 12:58:35 PM by rb »


rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1661 on: August 31, 2017, 03:01:58 PM »
Reaching out to west cost members here.

Please let me know what would be some middle class suburbs of Vancouver. Not poor, not posh, just regular middle class. If you know about Toronto, I'm thinking along the lines of Mississauga.

Also what is a good site to find rental homes in the Vancouver area? Is it realtor.ca or is there some other site?

tripleoptician

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1662 on: August 31, 2017, 03:24:55 PM »
 Vancouver proper is hard to come by homes in a reasonable price or rental cost.
In my opinion Burnaby is the nicest suburb.
North Burnaby (Capitol Hill, Burnaby Heights or around SFU have some good neighbourhood feels and schools are alright. 20 min to downtown if u need to commute.

Houses range from $1.2 million for a tear down to $2.5million for a reasonable size home with good level finishing.
Rental costs for a house will be minimum $3000/month for a whole house but you may find some where there is a tenant in a basement suite and the main house rents for under $3000 then.

I know a bit more about suburbs of Coquitlam/Port Moody if a longer commute (45-1hr) downtown is ok
Not sure about rental sites - i think alot is craigslist and kijiji for rentals.



Reaching out to west cost members here.

Please let me know what would be some middle class suburbs of Vancouver. Not poor, not posh, just regular middle class. If you know about Toronto, I'm thinking along the lines of Mississauga.

Also what is a good site to find rental homes in the Vancouver area? Is it realtor.ca or is there some other site?

Cardboard

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1663 on: September 06, 2017, 05:45:08 AM »
"08:16 AM EDT, 09/06/2017 (MT Newswires) -- Toronto Real Estate Board President Tim Syrianos said Wednesday that Toronto home sales were down nearly 35% in August compared to the previous year. The number of new listings entered into TREB's MLS System, at 11,523, was down by 6.7% year-over-year and at the lowest level for August since 2010.

"Recent reports suggest that economic conditions remain strong in the GTA," said Syrianos. "Positive economic news coupled with the slower pace of price growth we are now experiencing could prompt an improvement in the demand for ownership housing, over and above the regular seasonal bump, as we move through the fall."

Despite the sales decline, the average selling price for all home types combined was $732,292, a 3% rise from last year. This growth was driven by the semi-detached, townhouse and condominium apartment market segments that continued to experience high single-digit or double digit year-over-year average price increases."

Cardboard

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rb

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Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1666 on: September 13, 2017, 06:53:24 PM »
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/907781553593479168
Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit.

Please elaborate.

They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 06:55:00 PM by Liberty »
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rb

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1667 on: September 13, 2017, 07:30:03 PM »
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/907781553593479168
Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit.

Please elaborate.

They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend.
Yea they throw the kitchen sink to make the number seem larger. Also the way the do it basically makes sure you double count some stuff for example renovations and maintenance&repair. There's gonna be double counting there.

Also they make stuff up just to add it in there. Imputed rent for all homeowners? Really? First of all that's not even part of GDP. You can't add it to something and take it as a % of GDP. I'm willing to bet that in the transfer costs they include land transfer tax and that's also not part of GDP. In addition, they include housing wealth effect. There's no way to actually calculate that and also it has nothing to do with GDP.

These are just a few things that are wrong with that. There are others. The thing is that Statscan actually measures and publishes housing activity in GDP.  They do it very rigorously and properly. I think it's around 10% and yes that also on the high side historically speaking. But this guy chose not to use the Statscan numbers but make his own hocus pocus doctored measure to get a larger headline number so it'll me more flashy. That really grates my ass.

wisdom

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1668 on: September 13, 2017, 08:42:48 PM »
If I recall correctly the past peaks have been at 7%. US might have peaked at 5% in 2008. Canada is over 7%.

Is it 8% or 12%? Doesn't really matter.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2017, 08:44:37 PM by wisdom »

Liberty

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Re: Garth Turner - Real Estate in Canada
« Reply #1669 on: September 14, 2017, 06:44:23 AM »
https://twitter.com/SteveSaretsky/status/907781553593479168
Not for nothing but that chart is bullshit.

Please elaborate.

They throw everything and the kitchen sink, but it's for the whole period, so it's still useful to see the trend.
Yea they throw the kitchen sink to make the number seem larger. Also the way the do it basically makes sure you double count some stuff for example renovations and maintenance&repair. There's gonna be double counting there.

Also they make stuff up just to add it in there. Imputed rent for all homeowners? Really? First of all that's not even part of GDP. You can't add it to something and take it as a % of GDP. I'm willing to bet that in the transfer costs they include land transfer tax and that's also not part of GDP. In addition, they include housing wealth effect. There's no way to actually calculate that and also it has nothing to do with GDP.

These are just a few things that are wrong with that. There are others. The thing is that Statscan actually measures and publishes housing activity in GDP.  They do it very rigorously and properly. I think it's around 10% and yes that also on the high side historically speaking. But this guy chose not to use the Statscan numbers but make his own hocus pocus doctored measure to get a larger headline number so it'll me more flashy. That really grates my ass.

You're right, it's not a very good chart.
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Watch this, please