Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: investor-man on November 06, 2014, 12:51:45 PM

Title: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: investor-man on November 06, 2014, 12:51:45 PM
and... I'm not-so-secretly pleased they are doing as poorly as I am this year  ;)

http://www.mediafire.com/view/zb282eb54ui107a/Greenlight_Q3_2014.pdf
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: AzCactus on November 06, 2014, 12:54:03 PM
They must be getting killed with their shorts because their two largest holdings (Apple and Micron) are just beating the pants off the market. 
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Liberty on November 06, 2014, 12:57:08 PM
Thanks. Slightly off-topic, but Mediafire is doing a nice job of hosting PDFs and allowing download.

Everybody take note, and don't use Scribd.com please. Thanks!
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: peter1234 on November 06, 2014, 01:00:01 PM
They have also been defensively positioned for quite a while with low net exposure.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Zorrofan on November 06, 2014, 01:31:33 PM
Thanks. Slightly off-topic, but Mediafire is doing a nice job of hosting PDFs and allowing download.

Everybody take note, and don't use Scribd.com please. Thanks!

May I second that - I hate scribd.....

cheers
Zorro
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: educatedidiot on May 15, 2017, 02:47:09 PM
Greenlight's Q1 13-F is out: http://www.rocketfinancial.com/Holdings.aspx?id=374&fC=1

They bought GDX, PRGO, CNDT, MU, ALR, and a couple others.  And they sold out of their AGR and YELP.  Good timing on the YELP considering the sharp move down in May!
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: CorpRaider on May 16, 2017, 07:59:04 AM
Wow that's a lot of GM. 
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Gamecock-YT on May 16, 2017, 11:56:35 AM
Yeah no wonder he's flipping out. Late in the cycle and in deep.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Gregmal on May 16, 2017, 12:14:41 PM
Yeah no wonder he's flipping out. Late in the cycle and in deep.

Hardly. It appears he willingly tripled his position during the current quarter. While he has owned some GM for a while, he's largely been in and out of it and in significantly smaller size. The is one of his biggest positions he's taken in recent memory.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: CorpRaider on May 16, 2017, 12:26:06 PM
I mean, the man has skin in the game for sure.  It is like 1/3 of his reported portfolio now (BTW he's a stud just for doing that).  Why can't they just like self-tender for uh...a big slug.  Isn't cash king, if you decide use it?
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: stahleyp on July 05, 2018, 12:28:04 PM
Pretty good article:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/this-is-unbelievable-a-hedge-fund-star-dims-and-investors-flee-1530728254
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Haasje on July 11, 2018, 07:17:01 AM
I don't like the WSJ much so wrote this:
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4185647-david-einhorns-unbelievable-performance
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: stahleyp on July 11, 2018, 01:25:27 PM
Your article was fine but I didn't care for the spammy email I got after visiting your site/page.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Haasje on July 15, 2018, 04:38:39 AM
Noted Stahleyp. I'll look at that email to check what you mean. May have to rethink that.

For good measure: if you read the article you don't get any email. It is triggered when you visit the page about my premium service.

The article is unrelated. 
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Lakesider on July 31, 2018, 02:34:19 PM
https://www.scribd.com/document/385132733/Qlet2018-02-1#from_embed

Q2 letter, year-to-date loss (18.3)%.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Spekulatius on July 31, 2018, 04:02:40 PM
https://www.scribd.com/document/385132733/Qlet2018-02-1#from_embed

Q2 letter, year-to-date loss (18.3)%.

Time for an activist. LOL
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Parsad on July 31, 2018, 04:38:47 PM
https://www.scribd.com/document/385132733/Qlet2018-02-1#from_embed

Q2 letter, year-to-date loss (18.3)%.

Time for an activist. LOL

Ackman!   :P  Cheers!
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: CorpRaider on July 31, 2018, 05:46:25 PM
How much gold does he have?  Any ideas?
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Gregmal on August 01, 2018, 04:01:30 PM
August is off to a good start with Tesla and GM.

I have typically been a fan of Einhorn, but this stuff from him is inexcusable. As things shake out, and guys like Ackman and Tilson do what they do, I'm beginning to wonder if that age of hedge fund "stars" was really just a result of being in the right place at the right time. It was impossible not to outperform as a value investor in the early 2000's. If you were shorting it you looked even more genius because we all know what kind of stuff value guys would be shorting during that time frame too. But longer term this period IMO just reinforced arrogance and the textbook teachings of "value investing" which in turn probably hindered these guys ability to adapt or change on the fly. I mean between Tilson, Ackman, and Einhorn, I don't think any of them ever had a real job or relevant experience coming out of school. They basically lived spoiled rich kid lives and then played hedge fund manager with family money instead of getting real jobs. To their credit, they were bright enough to run the gauntlet and become insanely rich and popular, but I don't think they have the same hardened mentality or intimate understanding of how things really work to be sustainable. Looking at the real deal guys, Buffett, Cohen, Tepper, etc, they all did their time on the street and earned valuable life lessons before striking it out on their own. In terms of "fight" I think this goes a long way in shaping an investor vs a rich kid who's always gotten what he wants.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: given2invest on August 01, 2018, 06:18:01 PM
Tilson should not be in the same paragraph as Einhorn and Ackman.

For starters, they are billionaires from managing money.  Tilson probably worth 10 million max.

Second, Tilson never had a good track record.  At least Einhorn and Ackman did for a number of years.

Tilson is all hype.  Go look at his returns.  There is a reason he never accumulated any AUM.

For the rest of what you said, definitely possible.  But they still billionaires. 
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Spekulatius on August 01, 2018, 06:57:59 PM
August is off to a good start with Tesla and GM.

I have typically been a fan of Einhorn, but this stuff from him is inexcusable. As things shake out, and guys like Ackman and Tilson do what they do, I'm beginning to wonder if that age of hedge fund "stars" was really just a result of being in the right place at the right time. It was impossible not to outperform as a value investor in the early 2000's. If you were shorting it you looked even more genius because we all know what kind of stuff value guys would be shorting during that time frame too. But longer term this period IMO just reinforced arrogance and the textbook teachings of "value investing" which in turn probably hindered these guys ability to adapt or change on the fly. I mean between Tilson, Ackman, and Einhorn, I don't think any of them ever had a real job or relevant experience coming out of school. They basically lived spoiled rich kid lives and then played hedge fund manager with family money instead of getting real jobs. To their credit, they were bright enough to run the gauntlet and become insanely rich and popular, but I don't think they have the same hardened mentality or intimate understanding of how things really work to be sustainable. Looking at the real deal guys, Buffett, Cohen, Tepper, etc, they all did their time on the street and earned valuable life lessons before striking it out on their own. In terms of "fight" I think this goes a long way in shaping an investor vs a rich kid who's always gotten what he wants.

These guys donít need to adapt. They were filthy rich before before their performance record went to hell.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: rb on August 01, 2018, 08:23:22 PM
August is off to a good start with Tesla and GM.

I have typically been a fan of Einhorn, but this stuff from him is inexcusable. As things shake out, and guys like Ackman and Tilson do what they do, I'm beginning to wonder if that age of hedge fund "stars" was really just a result of being in the right place at the right time. It was impossible not to outperform as a value investor in the early 2000's. If you were shorting it you looked even more genius because we all know what kind of stuff value guys would be shorting during that time frame too. But longer term this period IMO just reinforced arrogance and the textbook teachings of "value investing" which in turn probably hindered these guys ability to adapt or change on the fly. I mean between Tilson, Ackman, and Einhorn, I don't think any of them ever had a real job or relevant experience coming out of school. They basically lived spoiled rich kid lives and then played hedge fund manager with family money instead of getting real jobs. To their credit, they were bright enough to run the gauntlet and become insanely rich and popular, but I don't think they have the same hardened mentality or intimate understanding of how things really work to be sustainable. Looking at the real deal guys, Buffett, Cohen, Tepper, etc, they all did their time on the street and earned valuable life lessons before striking it out on their own. In terms of "fight" I think this goes a long way in shaping an investor vs a rich kid who's always gotten what he wants.

What given2invest said about Tilson is all valid so I won't dive into that again. Also, please don't lump Cohen - the insider trading king - in the same category as Buffett.

Regarding Ackman, at first sight he seems like the real deal. But if you follow him for a while you realize that he's just a fantastic salesman and a great bullshit artist. That's why he has the 100+ slide decks. He looks great on CNBC and all that adds up to a lot of AUM. The fact that he probably lucked into some good trades also helps with the cult of personality.

On the flip side despite all that's happened I think Einhorn is a great investor but he is being harmed by the hedge fund model. Basically the whole long short thing. The aura around hedge funds being that they have to be long and short at the same time and make money on both. That's what sold and you have to go with it if you wanna make money. It doesn't help Einhorn given that he got notoriety for his shorts. I think he's a great long stock picker, but he's forced to be short by the model.

Let me elaborate a bit and get a little academic. If you assume the markets are efficient and you're a long/short fund with equal exposure then you'll make risk free. Now I don't think that the markets are efficient and these guys are not perfectly long/short. But still, given the market inefficiency and you being good, you'll generate some alpha. Maybe you do it on both sides. But alpha is hard, and in a raging bull market there's no way you generate enough alpha to beat the market. So the system is setup to make you fail as a hedgie. But hey, that's what sold AUM!

The rest of your post about rich kids and real jobs doesn't make much sense. Buffett was basically a rich kid and he turned into a great investor. Working on the street is not a real job and you don't learn anything about investing by working on the street either (you do learn a lot about Excel though). Plumber, mechanic, doctor, those are real jobs. But I don't see the legions of great plumber-investors.

Investing is just like any other craft. You get good through much study and practice. I'd also say that in this discipline, like many others, being a rich kid helps. But I think in investing it helps more. Also, there's a very big difference between being a good investor and being a good fund manager.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Parsad on August 01, 2018, 08:28:14 PM
August is off to a good start with Tesla and GM.

I have typically been a fan of Einhorn, but this stuff from him is inexcusable. As things shake out, and guys like Ackman and Tilson do what they do, I'm beginning to wonder if that age of hedge fund "stars" was really just a result of being in the right place at the right time. It was impossible not to outperform as a value investor in the early 2000's. If you were shorting it you looked even more genius because we all know what kind of stuff value guys would be shorting during that time frame too. But longer term this period IMO just reinforced arrogance and the textbook teachings of "value investing" which in turn probably hindered these guys ability to adapt or change on the fly. I mean between Tilson, Ackman, and Einhorn, I don't think any of them ever had a real job or relevant experience coming out of school. They basically lived spoiled rich kid lives and then played hedge fund manager with family money instead of getting real jobs. To their credit, they were bright enough to run the gauntlet and become insanely rich and popular, but I don't think they have the same hardened mentality or intimate understanding of how things really work to be sustainable. Looking at the real deal guys, Buffett, Cohen, Tepper, etc, they all did their time on the street and earned valuable life lessons before striking it out on their own. In terms of "fight" I think this goes a long way in shaping an investor vs a rich kid who's always gotten what he wants.

What given2invest said about Tilson is all valid so I won't dive into that again. Also, please don't lump Cohen - the insider trading king - in the same category as Buffett.

Regarding Ackman, at first sight he seems like the real deal. But if you follow him for a while you realize that he's just a fantastic salesman and a great bullshit artist. That's why he has the 100+ slide decks. He looks great on CNBC and all that adds up to a lot of AUM. The fact that he probably lucked into some good trades also helps with the cult of personality.

On the flip side despite all that's happened I think Einhorn is a great investor but he is being harmed by the hedge fund model. Basically the whole long short thing. The aura around hedge funds being that they have to be long and short at the same time and make money on both. That's what sold and you have to go with it if you wanna make money. It doesn't help Einhorn given that he got notoriety for his shorts. I think he's a great long stock picker, but he's forced to be short by the model.

Let me elaborate a bit and get a little academic. If you assume the markets are efficient and you're a long/short fund with equal exposure then you'll make risk free. Now I don't think that the markets are efficient and these guys are not perfectly long/short. But still, given the market inefficiency and you being good, you'll generate some alpha. Maybe you do it on both sides. But alpha is hard, and in a raging bull market there's no way you generate enough alpha to beat the market. So the system is setup to make you fail as a hedgie. But hey, that's what sold AUM!

The rest of your post about rich kids and real jobs doesn't make much sense. Buffett was basically a rich kid and he turned into a great investor. Working on the street is not a real job and you don't learn anything about investing by working on the street either (you do learn a lot about Excel though). Plumber, mechanic, doctor, those are real jobs. But I don't see the legions of great plumber-investors.

Investing is just like any other craft. You get good through much study and practice. I'd also say that in this discipline, like many others, being a rich kid helps. But I think in investing it helps more. Also, there's a very big difference between being a good investor and being a good fund manager.

Einhorn is a brilliant guy, even though I'm not a fan of his antics.  Ackman is smart, charming but reckless.  Tilson was great at running with their ideas, and if their ideas weren't plentiful...his buy Berkshire below intrinsic value analysis would usually come out...his philanthropic work was more notable.  Cheers!
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Ballinvarosig Investors on August 02, 2018, 04:37:27 AM
Regarding Ackman, at first sight he seems like the real deal. But if you follow him for a while you realize that he's just a fantastic salesman and a great bullshit artist. That's why he has the 100+ slide decks. He looks great on CNBC and all that adds up to a lot of AUM. The fact that he probably lucked into some good trades also helps with the cult of personality.
Lucked into some good trades? He has beaten the pants off the s&p.

(https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2018/1/12/11236431-15157533283408117.jpg)
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: mcliu on August 02, 2018, 05:44:10 AM
I wonder if there's a chart that shows the net $ amount that Ackman's made/lost because some of his big losses came when Pershing Square was much larger..
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Spekulatius on August 02, 2018, 05:54:21 AM
I wonder if there's a chart that shows the net $ amount that Ackman's made/lost because some of his big losses came when Pershing Square was much larger..

Yep, generate great performance when you manage a few million, then generate lousy performance when you manage billions. Talebs Monkeys at play.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Gregmal on August 02, 2018, 05:55:24 AM
The rest of your post about rich kids and real jobs doesn't make much sense. Buffett was basically a rich kid and he turned into a great investor. Working on the street is not a real job and you don't learn anything about investing by working on the street either (you do learn a lot about Excel though). Plumber, mechanic, doctor, those are real jobs. But I don't see the legions of great plumber-investors.

Investing is just like any other craft. You get good through much study and practice. I'd also say that in this discipline, like many others, being a rich kid helps. But I think in investing it helps more. Also, there's a very big difference between being a good investor and being a good fund manager.

I'm pretty sure Buffett spent nearly a decade working as a stock broker and then under Ben Graham. I'm also pretty sure he's also said many times how much he learned from this experience.

From his Wikipedia:

"Buffett worked from 1951 to 1954 at Buffett-Falk & Co. as an investment salesman; from 1954 to 1956 at Graham-Newman Corp. as a securities analyst; from 1956 to 1969 at Buffett Partnership, Ltd. as a general partner"

So half a decade. Probably more non "run my own shop" experience than Ackman, Einhorn, and Tilson combined.

I say the above not to be derogatory but because I've noticed a certain mentality with these types of people. They are super bright, but too academic, mainly because that's all they know. They do what the textbook says is the right thing to do even though anyone who's worked in just about any profession after studying it in school will tell you that you learn very quickly out there in the field that the textbook isn't always right. You have to adapt. The tone of Einhorn's letters lately scream "but the textbook says I'm right".

Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: stahleyp on August 02, 2018, 05:56:33 AM
A couple notes about Tilson, he had a very solid track record (against the S&P 500) until 2010 or so. He had about $180 million in 2010 which isn't large but not bad considering we were just getting out of the financial crisis.

http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/T2-Partners-Jan-2011.pdf

I also think he did not comes from a wealthy family (but could be wrong on that).
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Ballinvarosig Investors on August 02, 2018, 06:15:34 AM
I also think he did not comes from a wealthy family (but could be wrong on that).
Whitney Tilson's parents were both teachers and certainly not rich.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: given2invest on August 02, 2018, 06:44:03 AM
A couple notes about Tilson, he had a very solid track record (against the S&P 500) until 2010 or so. He had about $180 million in 2010 which isn't large but not bad considering we were just getting out of the financial crisis.

http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/02/T2-Partners-Jan-2011.pdf

I also think he did not comes from a wealthy family (but could be wrong on that).

Fund was launched on 1/1/99.  That terribly skews his track record till that date.  Show it to me annually not since inception.  I saw it and I remember being far from impressed vs. the bench marks.  And through 2016 I believe even since inception from that lucky date he hasn't beat it.

Edit:  I see the annual comps at the bottom.  They are fine.  If you add the last 6 years though...
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: stahleyp on August 02, 2018, 06:51:38 AM
yeah his last 6 or 7 years were horrendous.
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: StevieV on August 02, 2018, 08:05:36 AM
Styles of investing, including, and perhaps especially, value, don't work all the time.  That is fine.  But, Einhorn has dug himself quite the hole over the last few years versus the market.  It isn't easy to make up that type of under-performance.  Perhaps particularly so when long-short.

Einhorn
H1 2018 - (18%)
2017 - 1.5%
2016 - (0.1%)

S&P
H1 2018 - 2.7%
2017 - 22%
2016 - 12%
Title: Re: Greenlight Q3 Letter
Post by: Gregmal on August 02, 2018, 08:16:34 AM
Styles of investing, including, and perhaps especially, value, don't work all the time.  That is fine.  But, Einhorn has dug himself quite the hole over the last few years versus the market.  It isn't easy to make up that type of under-performance.  Perhaps particularly so when long-short.

Einhorn
H1 2018 - (18%)
2017 - 1.5%
2016 - (0.1%)

S&P
H1 2018 - 2.7%
2017 - 22%
2016 - 12%

I agree. It's odd to me how one's style of investing can in and of itself be an excuse. Most things don't work all the time. However if you have enough evidence to conclude that something isn't working(ie your returns suck), I don't know why you wouldn't look to fix it. Only in the hedge fund world can awful performance be excused simply by drawing some nonchalant, lazy excuse like "I'm a value guy".