Author Topic: How long will you live?  (Read 10741 times)

cwericb

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How long will you live?
« on: February 09, 2015, 09:50:39 AM »
This is pretty detailed.

If a person knew just how long you were going to live, saving for retirement would be easy. Of course if you knew when you were going to die you would probably worry yourself into an early grave as you got closer to the date -  invalidating the whole process.

http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html?utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_source=Personal%20Finance%20Reader&utm_type=text&utm_content=PersonalFinanceReader&utm_campaign=123555881


tombgrt

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #1 on: February 09, 2015, 10:06:38 AM »
Life Expectancy: 84.23 years
Lower Quartile: 76.62 years (75% chance you will live longer than this)
Median Lifetime: 86.34 years (50% chance you will live longer than this)
Upper Quartile: 94.06 years (25% chance you will live longer than this)

59 to go. I guess that is high for men.

cwericb

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #2 on: February 09, 2015, 10:13:04 AM »
Hope you're saving your money tombgrt because you have a 25% chance of living beyond 94 years !  :)

Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2015, 10:16:48 AM »
I'll go Kurzweil on this: if you don't die before 2050 or so, it is likely that you will live forever.

In fact, it is likely that humanity is facing a binary outcome: either there will be a civilization-level collapse or there will be a positive singularity type of event after which the life as we know it will change into something very different. With practical immortality as a side effect. This is likely to happen in 2040's to 2070's at latest.

So if you're young, keep in mind that the world will be very different sometime this century.

Personally, I might or might not make it to this. Of course, Kurzweil is older than me and he hopes to make it, but I'm not as optimistic as he is.  8)
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rkbabang

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2015, 10:26:39 AM »
I'll go Kurzweil on this: if you don't die before 2050 or so, it is likely that you will live forever.

In fact, it is likely that humanity is facing a binary outcome: either there will be a civilization-level collapse or there will be a positive singularity type of event after which the life as we know it will change into something very different. With practical immortality as a side effect. This is likely to happen in 2040's to 2070's at latest.

So if you're young, keep in mind that the world will be very different sometime this century.

Personally, I might or might not make it to this. Of course, Kurzweil is older than me and he hopes to make it, but I'm not as optimistic as he is.  8)

Of course you only need to live until they can expand life expectancy out 3 or 4 decades to make it until they cure aging completely.  I think large gains in life expectancy will come before 2050, in which case you will likely live to 2050-2070.   Anyone under 60 today has a good chance I think of living for hundred years.  Note I didn't say "forever". I forgot where I read it, but I read a good analysis of what life expectancy without aging would be and just counting the probability the average person has of dying an accidental death on any given year, the average life expectancy would be about 700 years.  I'm assuming with things like space tourism and everyone having more time on our hands because of technology to travel or do stupid things the rate of accidental death will probably remain about where it is now.

Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #5 on: February 09, 2015, 10:39:50 AM »
I'm assuming with things like space tourism and everyone having more time on our hands because of technology to travel or do stupid things the rate of accidental death will probably remain about where it is now.

One possible way of immortality is having your brain/mind scanned and deposited into new organic or inorganic receptacles. If copy could be kept, the accidental death would not be permanent. But, yes, there will be some deaths even in best case scenario, so you are right to not say "forever". :)

Yes, there are a lot of questions/issues with this, but that's why it's called "singularity" - it's very hard to predict all the repercussions including social and economic ones. And, yes, it could lead to catastrophic crises, which is why I think that the outcome is rather binary.

« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 10:43:02 AM by Jurgis »
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Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #6 on: February 09, 2015, 10:52:55 AM »
I'll just leave this here:

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yadayada

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #7 on: February 09, 2015, 10:59:05 AM »
I wonder what would happen to the brain if you could make your body live about 200 years. It would probably result in a lot of jaded 40 year old looking 150 year olds.

It seems a 130 year old with a healthy body and still a lot of energy would have a huge edge against a 30-40 year old. So much more wisdom.

cwericb

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #8 on: February 09, 2015, 11:10:51 AM »
Here's a thought...

Longer life span will effect retirement age, retirement savings, pensions and government programs like social or old age security which are going to need to be addressed quickly.

Not that many years ago, sixty was considered “old”. Anyone living beyond one hundred was a real rarity. Now most industrialized countries see a rate above 20 per 100,000 living beyond age one hundred. In Japan that number is fifty-six!  If my math is correct, with a Japanese population of 127.3 million, that means there is over 71,000 people in Japan alone who are over one hundred.

People in this age bracket could have well been retired for at least 40 years. How many present pension plans/savings/social programs are geared to support this?

How many here are saving for a retirement that may last up to or beyond 40 years?
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 11:13:23 AM by cwericb »

Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #9 on: February 09, 2015, 11:17:19 AM »
How many here are saving for a retirement that may last up to or beyond 40 years?

It depends how life is extended. If you just extend the frail period at the end of someone's life, then that's a problem.

If you actually work on curing the diseases of aging so that you don't get to that frail state in the first place, then retirement isn't a problem anymore; the current system is set up so that people who are in bad shape can stop working. But if you are 100 but as healthy as a 30-year-old currently is, there's no reason why you couldn't retired for a few years (a few decades) and then go back to work, or just never fully retire if you like what you do.

When something big enough changes, you have to look at all assumptions, not just try to keep the old system going in a totally different context.

"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | Interesting podcast on aging research