Author Topic: How long will you live?  (Read 10740 times)

Jurgis

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Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #11 on: February 09, 2015, 11:25:41 AM »
Bill Gates on immortality research:

http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/2tzjp7/hi_reddit_im_bill_gates_and_im_back_for_my_third/co3q1lf
http://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/article/2000149742/bill-gates-it-is-selfish-for-rich-people-to-try-to-live-forever

I doubt this will stop people from researching it though.

I hope not. Helping the poorest people might be top of the list, but helping everybody else who suffers and die from the diseases of aging (iirc around 200-300k die every day, and multiples of that are affected, ie. friends and family) still ranks very high on the list. If we have to cut somewhere to support that effort, obviously we shouldn't cut in what the Gates Foundation does, but there's millions of other useless things that we spend human capital on that are way less important for the betterment of the human condition (if all the bright people who go into finance went into biogerontology instead, maybe we'd be getting somewhere).

Besides, the Gates Foundation is helping fund some tools that will be helpful in the fight against aging (some of the computational biology efforts from Washington University come to mind). It might not be direct help, but it helps nonetheless.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 11:46:22 AM by Liberty »
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rkbabang

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2015, 11:26:56 AM »
It depends how life is extended. If you just extend the frail period at the end of someone's life, then that's a problem.

If you actually work on curing the diseases of aging so that you don't get to that frail state in the first place, then retirement isn't a problem anymore; the current system is set up so that people who are in bad shape can stop working. But if you are 100 but as healthy as a 30-year-old currently is, there's no reason why you couldn't retired for a few years (a few decades) and then go back to work, or just never fully retire if you like what you do.

When something big enough changes, you have to look at all assumptions, not just try to keep the old system going in a totally different context.

Even if you don't like what you do, learn how to do something else.  What is 4 or 8 years of school and/or 15-20 years of on the job experience when you have hundreds of years left to live.  A person could very well have 6 or 10 or 20+ different careers over a lifetime where they reached expert/senior/master level in each field.  Technical obsolescence will likely force this on you eventually even if you would like to do your job for 400+ years.  This will certainly have an effect on marriage as well.  "'Till death do us part" will be a long long time.  The divorce rate is already above 50%, how many marriages would last 300 or 600 years, possibly raising multiple groups of children separated by decades or centuries?   It will be interesting for sure.

yadayada

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2015, 11:38:57 AM »
space travel could become interesting with lifespans that. They could build travelling mini planets that hop from solar system to solar system. If you think about it, technology could still so drastically change life, that looking back on today 500 years from now will look worse then looking back on the middle ages now.

Also staying in one place, with one person, would seem really boring to do for 2-300 years. Also thinking back on something that happened 300 years ago? We will probably find the limit of the human brain to remember things.

Or what about unlocking all the secrets of the brain? What if we could just plug into a shot of heroin every day without building up tolerance or damaging the brain? It would be totally irrational to not do that, if possible.
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 11:40:49 AM by yadayada »

Pretium

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2015, 11:48:45 AM »
My biggest fear about dying is not being able to see how the future turns out. I absolutely hope to live to 200+ years.

I do worry how artifical intelligence will play out. Musk, Hawking and Gates have expressed concerns.
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Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2015, 11:58:00 AM »
My biggest fear about dying is not being able to see how the future turns out. I absolutely hope to live to 200+ years.

I do worry how artifical intelligence will play out. Musk, Hawking and Gates have expressed concerns.

Same. And on AI, that's why Friendly-AGI research is so important:

Machine Intelligence Research Institute

We need to figure out if we can prove mathematically if it's possible to design a recursively improving AI that would conserve goals and values in a safe way, and how to achieve that.
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rkbabang

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2015, 01:30:36 PM »
Or what about unlocking all the secrets of the brain? What if we could just plug into a shot of heroin every day without building up tolerance or damaging the brain? It would be totally irrational to not do that, if possible.

So you can get the same neurons to fire as if it was your first ever shot of heroin and do it whenever you want?  You could also simulate the feeling of winning huge at gambling, simulate sex, or any other feeling you wish to have.   There may be a lot of unproductive people around, but very little depression.  If you start having a bad though, just turn it off and plug in a happy one.

Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2015, 02:44:46 PM »
I do worry how artifical intelligence will play out. Musk, Hawking and Gates have expressed concerns.

I for one would welcome our new AI overlords.  8)

Seriously, if it came to humans vs. self-conscious AI, I'm not sure which side I would take. Humans have a lot of unadmirable qualities.  8) The best case - and perhaps likely - IMHO is the merging of humans and machines. But, yeah, there are lot of things to work out. :)
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cwericb

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2015, 02:58:30 PM »
I hate to be pessimistic but you guys that think you may live to see 150 or 200 are really, really optimistic.

Aside from that I wonder what the odds are of being hit by an asteroid, a tsunami, a massive earthquake, a new disease, a major war or the deadly repercussions of global warming? And if we are talking about the next 100 years what about the after effects of the collapse of our financial system.


            

Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2015, 03:05:56 PM »
I hate to be pessimistic but you guys that think you may live to see 150 or 200 are really, really optimistic.

Aside from that I wonder what the odds are of being hit by an asteroid, a tsunami, a massive earthquake, a new disease, a major war or the deadly repercussions of global warming? And if we are talking about the next 100 years what about the after effects of the collapse of our financial system.

I told you that I see binary outcome. :) And I think it's about 50-50% which way things go. So, no, I am not optimistic.
I just believe that we won't muddle through. Either we get the whole cheese, or we crash and burn.

Regarding your examples:
asteroid - predictable, possible to handle
tsunami - predictable soon, affects tiny parts of population (even if California is hit)
a massive earthquake - see tsunami
a new disease - possible, but unlikely to destroy civilization. Horror movies are mostly fiction. (Yes, grey goo is a risk)
a major war - yes, possible. Civ destruction is possible.
the deadly repercussions of global warming - possible to handle
after effects of the collapse of our financial system - not sure what you exactly mean, but I'll go with "collapse of financial system due to massive automation, massive human unemployment due to robots". Yes, possible. Likely to lead to war. See war above.

"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo
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"American History X", "Milk", "The Insider", "Dirty Money", "LBJ"