Author Topic: How long will you live?  (Read 8871 times)

Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2015, 05:27:31 PM »
I hate to be pessimistic but you guys that think you may live to see 150 or 200 are really, really optimistic.

How optimistic people are depends on how old they are right now. I'm 32, and I think that the chances that medical science advances a lot over the next 50 years is very high.

What people miss is that to benefit, we don't have to go from zero to a perfect therapy for the diseases of aging. We just have to do enough to allow you to live long enough for these therapies to be improved enough in the meantime so that by the time you would need them, there are developped. So you add 15 years to someone, and in those 15 years you improve treatment enough to add a further 15 years, and during those 15 years you figure out how to fix the remaining problems that you couldn't fix well enough in the earlier therapy, etc.  It's the concept of longevity escape velocity. Of course that's most dangerous to people who are just on the edge of what can be done, but those who have a buffer of a few decades ahead of the bleeding edge should be safe.

Once you add more than 1 year of extra longevity per year, on average  your chances of death stop becoming correlated with your age. You can still be hit by a truck or die from any of the things that can kill a healthy 20-year old, of course. But if you look at mortality rate for young people in the western world, you can pretty easily extrapolate how long the average person could live (and then you can assume that in a world of longer lifespans, we'd be more careful about things like driving, so it'd be even longer).

All the cells in our bodies are replaced multiple times over the first 4-5 decades of our lives. It's not like an engine that wears out and stops functioning well; the reason why everything starts going wrong after 50-60 years is that it's an evolutionary blind spot. For most of human evolutionary time, relatively few people lived that long and reproduced after that age, so genes for repair mechanisms aren't selected for. We are not our cells that are wearing out; we are a pattern that is maintained, and if we can figure out how to periodically repair the damage that accumulates in long-lived molecules, we should be able to keep our bodies in good shape. Same concept as how you can maintain a vintage car indefinitely if you just do enough maintenance and repairs on it. After 50 years, maybe you've changed almost all the parts, but as long as you kept the original pattern of the car intact, it's still the same car.

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Aside from that I wonder what the odds are of being hit by an asteroid, a tsunami, a massive earthquake, a new disease, a major war or the deadly repercussions of global warming? And if we are talking about the next 100 years what about the after effects of the collapse of our financial system.

It's not because you solve the diseases of aging that you automatically solve everything else, but those other problems are worth working on too, and maybe more people would care if they had longer lifespans.
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Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2015, 06:11:40 PM »
Very nice post Liberty.  :)
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Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2015, 06:37:46 PM »
Very nice post Liberty.  :)

If interested in learning more, you can check this out:

https://www.fightaging.org/introduction/

And then keep going through the links on the right of that page.

This is old but a good intro to some of the concepts:

http://www.ted.com/talks/aubrey_de_grey_says_we_can_avoid_aging

This one goes into a bit more details:

http://youtu.be/tXJzvo0Jekc

Then if you want more details there's this book:

http://www.amazon.com/dp/0312367066

And if you want even more detail and the very latest, there's this peer-reviewed scientific journal:

http://www.liebertpub.com/overview/rejuvenation-research/127/

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rejuvenation_Research

And if you want to help fund the effort to defeat the diseases of aging with the engineering approach described above (not trying to modify or learn everything about metabolism, that's too hard, just periodically repair damage before it accumulates enough to cause pathologies), you can donate here:

http://www.sens.org/donate
« Last Edit: February 09, 2015, 06:50:24 PM by Liberty »
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cwericb

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2015, 05:42:11 AM »

Sunrider

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2015, 07:28:20 AM »
If you are interested in such topics more broadly, check out:

https://www.singularityweblog.com


Disclosure: The author is a friend of mine. He's currently running a social media campaign to get one of his 1:1 video interviews with Elon Musk (and is taking audience questions ... so that might be interesting for readers here).


Cageyone

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2015, 01:49:06 PM »
Hi Liberty!

Thanks for your post and the links.  Although the life expectancy calculator says that my wife and I both have a good shot at making 90, that's only 17 years from now.  So any ideas of how to live well longer are of more than just academic interest to us!

When I was 32 I was in the 3rd year of what became a 30 year management consulting career.  Our one kid was 2 and we opened our first tax-sheltered savings plan and started saving for retirement.  Thanks to some solid investments like FFH we're not concerned about out-living our retirement savings.  So we're keen to go on living "healthily" as long as possible!

Cheers!
Cageyone
Cageyone's First Law of Management - "Know when to lead, follow or get out of the way!"

Liberty

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #26 on: July 06, 2018, 06:49:53 AM »
Interesting interview by Rhonda Patrick of Aubrey de Grey, two very smart people who know the topic of the biology of aging:

https://podtail.com/en/podcast/foundmyfitness/dr-aubrey-de-grey-and-dr-rhonda-patrick-talk/

It's already a couple of years old, so there's been developments since, but it's still very interesting and I'm sure most outside the field can learn a lot from it.
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Paarslaars

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #27 on: July 06, 2018, 07:00:30 AM »
Current age: 30

Life Expectancy: 96 years
Lower Quartile: 87 years (75% chance you will live longer than this)
Median Lifetime: 95 years (50% chance you will live longer than this)
Upper Quartile: 101 years (25% chance you will live longer than this)

Damnd, next generation is going to pay a shitload of taxes for my pension. ^^

oddballstocks

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #28 on: July 06, 2018, 07:58:25 AM »
The calculator is interesting.

Life expectancy of 99
75% change of living to 90
25% chance I'll live to 105

That is a long time...
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Jurgis

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Re: How long will you live?
« Reply #29 on: July 06, 2018, 08:11:09 AM »
Retirement/SS age just has to go up.
"Before you can be rich, you must be poor." - Nef Anyo