Author Topic: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?  (Read 2252 times)

flesh

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #20 on: December 06, 2018, 12:40:12 PM »
Seconding the low rate balance transfers. I have about 10 cards with 25k limits and no balance. All you do is pick the lowest fee (0-3%) and longest duration at 0%, 18-24 months usually. Use the checks they send you and deposit, that's it. Roll over to another card at end of period if needs be. Also, a heloc is nice to have. Locally I have america first credit union heloc fixed for five years at 4.5% then it re rates once and is fixed for five years again. Also, pentagon federal credit union offers the same thing. Payment is 1.25% of balance per month but you can always re use whatever you've paid down. For a smaller payment go interest only, but the rates higher.



oddballstocks

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #21 on: December 06, 2018, 12:44:46 PM »
Knew a guy in 2007 who used to day trade on some obscene margin.  He'd brag each day at 4pm about how much he made.  "Guys, made another $1k today." "Another $800 day."

His strategy was a "secret".  He was a trading guru right up to October 2007.  Then after that he went silent and spoke as if nothing ever happened.  I believe the start of the market drop coincided with his wife asking to see a statement and subsequently him being given an extremely short leash by her.

For background.  This guy cashed out about $90-100k in a merger.  I think he lost about $40k, with the remaining $60k he spent it on a boat and new truck.  I'm not sure the wife was happy with the boat and truck either, but at least they couldn't vanish from a few mouse clicks.

He claimed he didn't need to save for retirement because he'd stike it big one day....

For a while this guy would send links to sites that offered 400:1 margin on crops and currencies....uh.....

My rule of thumb is if you need obscene margin (currencies) to make money on a trade then it probably isn't a good trade in the first place.
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Rod

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #22 on: December 06, 2018, 12:59:25 PM »
Can anyone think of a strategy to take on a huge amount of non-recourse leverage with little down and invest in stocks?
The only thing I could think of was Leaps.

What you need to do is find a really, really bad loan and take the other side  8)

John Hjorth

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2018, 02:03:32 PM »
Knew a guy in 2007 who used to day trade on some obscene margin.  He'd brag each day at 4pm about how much he made.  "Guys, made another $1k today." "Another $800 day."

His strategy was a "secret".  He was a trading guru right up to October 2007.  Then after that he went silent and spoke as if nothing ever happened.  I believe the start of the market drop coincided with his wife asking to see a statement and subsequently him being given an extremely short leash by her.

For background.  This guy cashed out about $90-100k in a merger.  I think he lost about $40k, with the remaining $60k he spent it on a boat and new truck.  I'm not sure the wife was happy with the boat and truck either, but at least they couldn't vanish from a few mouse clicks.

He claimed he didn't need to save for retirement because he'd stike it big one day....

For a while this guy would send links to sites that offered 400:1 margin on crops and currencies....uh.....

My rule of thumb is if you need obscene margin (currencies) to make money on a trade then it probably isn't a good trade in the first place.

Nate,

You have to give, that this friend of yours actually did something right. He "married up" [so to say, "out of" his own stupidity]. I've never been able to find such persons on any Forbes list.
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LongHaul

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #24 on: December 07, 2018, 08:29:32 AM »
Here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/bac-leverage/msg245797/#msg245797

and

It was talked about a bit here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/warrants-for-leveraged-garp-investing/50/

It's all strung out because it generated a lot of questions and doubts.

Thanks for posting and writing this Eric.

The more I think about it, long term call Leaps are probably one of the best way to achieve this.   Long with puts could be similar. 
Options pricing does not take fundamental values into account and therefore on a long term basis this can be the inefficiency.

To get really great odds though I think 2 things have to be present.
1.  Extreme undervaluation
2.  Low cost of the option premium. 

The upside is magnified returns vs unlevered long only.

Downside is getting wiped out if the stock is down.

So to be 100% invested in calls has wipeout risk. 




« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 08:37:50 AM by LongHaul »

ERICOPOLY

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #25 on: December 07, 2018, 09:14:06 AM »
Here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/bac-leverage/msg245797/#msg245797

and

It was talked about a bit here:
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/strategies/warrants-for-leveraged-garp-investing/50/

It's all strung out because it generated a lot of questions and doubts.

Thanks for posting and writing this Eric.

The more I think about it, long term call Leaps are probably one of the best way to achieve this.   Long with puts could be similar. 
Options pricing does not take fundamental values into account and therefore on a long term basis this can be the inefficiency.

To get really great odds though I think 2 things have to be present.
1.  Extreme undervaluation
2.  Low cost of the option premium. 

The upside is magnified returns vs unlevered long only.

Downside is getting wiped out if the stock is down.

So to be 100% invested in calls has wipeout risk.

Yes, 100% invested in calls has wipeout risk. 

The 2006 FFH trade was to buy the calls in May/June and to deleverage after the hurricane season passed.  Hurricane seasons don't last past November and the 2008 calls didn't expire for yet another 14 months after that.

The theory was that their extrinsic value was artificially low due to the crowded short trade with short sellers using the options market maker exemption because there were not enough physical shares to borrow.  Additionally, the time value component of the extrinsic value decays relatively slowly so this was the safest window of the holding period.

« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 09:19:33 AM by ERICOPOLY »

cashisking

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #26 on: December 07, 2018, 10:09:12 AM »
Sell long dated in the money puts (on companies you expect to increase in value) and calls (on etfs and companies expected to decrease in value). Use that to buy long dated warrants - ones where the implicit cost of borrowing is low. Look for warrants that just start to trade - some experience a spin off effect and get dumped. Post reorg warrants are the sweet spot IMO - all the benefits of post reorg valuation, fresh start accounting etc for the underlying company, and the holders are usually former retail equity holders and debt holders (neither are too interested in holding the warrants that represent pennies on the dollar of their original capital)...

For selling naked puts and calls you are going to need margin. In canada we have TFSA account types (similar to Roth IRA in US) and Questrade has a feature that allows you to use your tfsa assets as collateral for your margin account at no cost. So there is no cash cost for borrowing the margin needed to hold short option positions if you set it up that way.

I guess buying CEFs at a discount to NAV is a form of borrowing. You get the discount at no cost and its non recourse to you. The discount can multiply if the CEF holds assets that themselves are discounted (I'm thinking of a bond CEF at a discount and the underlying bonds are trading at a discount to par for some technical reason).
« Last Edit: December 07, 2018, 10:31:09 AM by cashisking »

bizaro86

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Re: Huge amounts of non-recourse leverage possible?
« Reply #27 on: December 08, 2018, 02:26:26 PM »
Another potential way to add a bunch of leverage is through split shares. Basically, these are retail yield pig vehicles. They start with a $25 NAV, split between a $10 preferred share and a $15 common share. The prefs get a preferred dividend, and the common gets a levered play on the underlying portfolio. They tend to overdistribute on the common, so the NAV often decreases. But that just makes them even more levered.

As an example: TSX:FFN is a portfolio of 15 US/Canadian financials. Largest positions are BofA, JPM, WFC, and GS (in order) so potentially attractive valuations.

The NAV in total is ~$16, so the NAV to the common is ~$6. The common trades at $6.26 CAD, so you're paying something for the leverage. They distribute $1.20 to the common per year (until they bottom out at whatever the NAV minimum is). This is close to 3 to 1 leverage on a diversified portfolio of financials at relatively low cost.