Author Topic: Is it too early to call an economic top?  (Read 1736 times)

Liberty

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Re: Is it too early to call an economic top?
« Reply #10 on: October 11, 2018, 09:04:40 AM »
Hard to say...  In terms of the general US stock market I personally do expect pretty mediocre/bad returns going forward, but that doesn't mean it can't keep going up 2% per year for 10 years, in which case where we are today would not be the "top."

People have been predicting mediocre forward returns (the new normal of low returns) since around 2011.

I think it's very hard to predict the future, but it makes people feel conservative and like they're being safe when they predict mediocre returns.

In reality, who knows what will happen?
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 03:29:15 PM by Liberty »
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CorpRaider

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Re: Is it too early to call an economic top?
« Reply #11 on: October 11, 2018, 03:03:54 PM »
To me you have to be evidence-based and systematic when it comes to this type of stuff (and most things actually).  Otherwise you run a huge risk of fking up your portfolio and your psyche.

I do tinker with a value + trend/momentum system in of my accounts (unless stocks are expensive and in a not in an uptrend, I want to be long).  Out of U.S. stocks in that one as of today. 
« Last Edit: October 11, 2018, 03:11:00 PM by CorpRaider »

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Is it too early to call an economic top?
« Reply #12 on: October 11, 2018, 03:49:30 PM »
Hard to say...  In terms of the general US stock market I personally do expect pretty mediocre/bad returns going forward, but that doesn't mean it can't keep going up 2% per year for 10 years, in which case where we are today would not be the "top."

Yes this COULD happen, but seeing as that is never how we've gotten to low decade returns in the past suggests that it's unlikely going forward. It just doesn't jive with the human psyche - we are either overly optimistic or overly pessimistic. Very rarely are we "just-right" or "just easing back" for a decade to get the require environment to support consistent 2-3% annual returns. More likely you get a big top and then a big bust.

January looked like a blow-off top to me - 10% in a single month for U.S. and International stocks?!?!? The only thing that has had me questioning that was the fact we made new highs after that. I'm not all that well versed in the rules of technical analysis, but I wouldn't have expected us to slowly grind higher to new highs like we did if January was peak-euphoria. Not saying we haven't already seen the top - just that I'm inclined to believe January was "really" it while trying to remain somewhat skeptical of that since markets don't see to agree with me.

meiroy

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Re: Is it too early to call an economic top?
« Reply #13 on: October 11, 2018, 07:02:50 PM »
Yes. But, we are all going to die. So, eat and drink and be merry.

John Hjorth

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Re: Is it too early to call an economic top?
« Reply #14 on: October 12, 2018, 12:50:39 AM »
Hang Sen looks down this morning, while European indices in general are in black this morning.
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