Author Topic: Is Soros a reputable value investor?  (Read 2211 times)

scorpioncapital

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Is Soros a reputable value investor?
« on: April 01, 2009, 06:20:12 PM »
"A financial mystic Soros believes his body aches and pains give him signals as to when to invest, or when to short he does not know how long the current climate will continue. "

http://moneynews.newsmax.com/streettalk/soros_global_depression/2009/04/01/198390.html

I wish I had those aches and pains!


arbitragr

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Re: Is Soros a reputable value investor?
« Reply #1 on: April 01, 2009, 07:13:39 PM »
?

Soros + value investor = oxymoron  ???
"worry top down, invest bottom up ..."

mpauls

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Re: Is Soros a reputable value investor?
« Reply #2 on: April 01, 2009, 10:15:13 PM »
I've always said there is no investment approach that systematically outperforms the 'market' except for those that understand Ben Graham: e.g. those that purchase on the basis of underlying value relative to the price being offered.  While Soros has done, as far as anyone can tell, very well indeed, he does not upon review appear to offer an investment approach that anyone can understand or replicate.  Given many years of effort and a mutation of certain genes, understanding the most systematically successful investors i.e. those able to do increasingly well over longer periods and with increasing amounts of capital can be replicated, the same cannot be said of the investment approach which Soros claims to employ.

I would bet large amounts that Soros is either a "closet value guy" or he just doesn't recognize that this is what is is doing.  It may just be a way for him to avoid coattails.

p.s. the term "Value investing" is redundant.  Those that purchase on the basis of underlying value relative to the price being offered are investing, anything else is speculation. 
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arbitragr

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Re: Is Soros a reputable value investor?
« Reply #3 on: April 02, 2009, 04:06:47 AM »
Reflexivity if I do recall ... ??  :-\
"worry top down, invest bottom up ..."

SharperDingaan

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Re: Is Soros a reputable value investor?
« Reply #4 on: April 02, 2009, 05:25:41 AM »

Think long long-dated out-of-money index calls; short long dated out-of-money index puts; long CDS's on his non AIG counter-parties.
Set-up investment of maybe 5-10% of capital on hand.

Premium on the puts + set-up investment pays for the CDS & call premiums
- If the summit works the calls pay off massively & early; 'relief' volatility will put them into the money
- If the summit fails the puts give him huge long positions in quality coy's at deep discounts
- If counter-parties fail, the CDS's pay cash when cash is king - with most of the actual credit risk likely being on AIG ... & thereby the US fed

Trading position. Little real risk. Small wonder he's feeling so upbeat!

Classic Soros

SD