Author Topic: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call  (Read 2376 times)

Viking

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Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« on: December 05, 2016, 09:08:06 PM »
For those looking to better understand what is going on today Gundlach certainly has some thoughts. His most recent presentation is about an hour long and provides what looks like a pretty decent review of what has happened the past 6 months and why. He also provides some thoughts on what may come in the next couple of months. (There is also lots of self promotion etc; however, there is also lots to chew on and that is what I like...). Sorry if someone has already linked to this presentation. :-)

http://www.doublelinefunds.com/webcasts/

A couple of my key takeaways (looking out to mid 2017):
1.) inflation in US will be going higher, especially with oil trading today at $50 (Jan of 2015 it was at $26)
2.) US interest rates are going higher; after basing for a while at 2.35% US 10 year will begin the next up leg
3.) US$ is going higher
4.) volatility will increase (buckle your seat belts)


Viking

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - Conference Call
« Reply #1 on: December 12, 2017, 03:55:48 PM »
Well, I am back with another post on Gundlach. He continues to be one of my favourite commentators. What I really like is all of the detail he provides and discusses in his sessions. I do not listen to trade off of his guesses as to what may happen moving forward. Rather, I really like listening to his logic. Some stuff I use and other stuff I do not.
- Dec 5 Total Return webcast: https://doublelinefunds.com/webcast-schedule/

He also has a second conference call in January focussed on what will happen in 2018 (this webcast is on a different web site as it is not Doubleline fund related)
- Jan 9 Just Markets: https://doubleline.com/latest-webcasts/

A couple of take aways from the call last week:
1.) the US 10 year yield is being held down by continued QE in Europe and Japan. Until this changes US rates will be held down (from where the market might take them on its own). He  still feels the yield on 10 year US treasuries could hit 5 or 6% in 4 years time. As a general rule he said it is not unreasonable to see the 10 year yield match nominal GDP growth.
2.) he likes commodities (as a longer term investment); expects the US$ to continue to weaken (nothing too crazy)
3.) leading indicators in the US are running hot; with tax reform, US GDP growth may pick up in 2018

randomep

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2017, 06:56:34 PM »

It is interesting that you started with his predictions from last year. So what do you think those earlier predictions. Looks like he is not right on any of the 4?  If so, it may be only because he was early.


Viking

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #3 on: December 12, 2017, 09:05:08 PM »
Randomep, I included the old post on purpose... now I am not sure how accuarate my notes were or how representative they were of his overall discussion... but I think you want to be careful about putting too much stock in any final forecasts (or summaries provided by posters like me :-)

I have been wondering lately where the US is in the current economic cycle. Gundlach provides lots of great detail on this. It appears to me that the US should start 2018 in very good shape.

Value^2

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #4 on: December 13, 2017, 12:20:41 AM »
Quote
June 26, 2010
Gundlach, 50, got some high-profile fund industry exposure this week when he gave the keynote address at Morningstar's annual investment conference in Chicago. He gave a bearish view of the economy, predicting a double-dip recession.
http://articles.latimes.com/2010/jun/26/business/la-fi-doubleline-20100626

stahleyp

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #5 on: June 16, 2018, 07:21:03 AM »
You have to be weary with economic forecasts but he's been spot on quite a few times on rarely held view points  (including Trump's victory in Jan of 2016).

What would the market look like if he's right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-13/gundlach-sees-6-yield-in-3-years-anyone-else
« Last Edit: June 16, 2018, 07:23:38 AM by stahleyp »
Paul

TwoCitiesCapital

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #6 on: June 16, 2018, 08:07:20 AM »
You have to be weary with economic forecasts but he's been spot on quite a few times on rarely held view points  (including Trump's victory in Jan of 2016).

What would the market look like if he's right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-13/gundlach-sees-6-yield-in-3-years-anyone-else

Not only has he been right, more than he's been wrong, he's willing to admit when he's wrong and change his views as markets progress. I've never seen him married to a view which is admirable.


Viking

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Re: Jeff Gundlach - November 15 Conference Call
« Reply #7 on: June 16, 2018, 02:39:18 PM »
What I really like about Gundlach is his presentations run about 1 hour long and he goes into a fair bit of detail to explain to listeners why he thinks what he thinks. It is a great way to educate yourself on how the big funds think and work. And it is free :-)

He just held a webcast (June 12) and I canít wait to listen to it (I missed the live version and it always takes about a week to become available as a replay): https://doublelinefunds.com/webcast-schedule/