Author Topic: Mohnish Pabrai blog  (Read 64029 times)

rranjan

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #230 on: January 16, 2018, 12:10:38 PM »
Not bad:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2018/01/pabrai-funds-returns/

I wonder how close this gets him to his 26% goal?

By the way, does anyone have his letter they'd share?

OMG, how can they write such a shoddy article!  It says from oct 2003-2018 the s&p500 returned 250% cumulative. Which makes the funds 310% look great over the same period. I punched in the number and that sounds about right. BUT the S&P500 TR returned 340%, comon, you cannot compare a fund against an index without dividends.

I think the debate had been going on for a while that Pabrai's funds have not beaten the markets if you strip out those years when it was a $2M fund.  And it sure as heck seems like to me that more likely than not, his fund will lag the S&P500 tr in the future.

I mean the fund is like VIX on drugs.  The 3 highest years when the index was up, he trounced the index. The 3 lowest years for the index he lagged.  I think he forgot the meaning of the word hedge.

The basic premise of Buffett & Munger's beliefs is that volatility is not the same thing as risk. 

I think the first time Pabrai got trounced in 2008, you could have equated the volatility with risk, because there was significant exposure to correlated risks in financials.  The second time the fund suffered, I don't think you could make the same correlation...it was just undervalued and he took a hit with one stock.

So while the opinion always seems to still be out on Pabrai, I would not be surprised to see him out of the fund business in less than 10 years.  At that point, his own personal stake would have climbed from the present $120M or so to $350M-500M.  He may just decide that he wants to travel the lecture circuit and manage his own money. 

Nothing Pabrai said to me...but after 25 years of results, those that think you are an asshole and a fraud will still think that!

Cheers!

Is there any difference between 120M and 360M if you take account of his lifestyle? I don't think it makes any difference.


shalab

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #231 on: January 16, 2018, 01:05:22 PM »
You are saying he should close his fund now  ;D. Seriously, I think he should invest in PDH (equity injection) and then retire.

Not bad:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2018/01/pabrai-funds-returns/

I wonder how close this gets him to his 26% goal?

By the way, does anyone have his letter they'd share?

OMG, how can they write such a shoddy article!  It says from oct 2003-2018 the s&p500 returned 250% cumulative. Which makes the funds 310% look great over the same period. I punched in the number and that sounds about right. BUT the S&P500 TR returned 340%, comon, you cannot compare a fund against an index without dividends.

I think the debate had been going on for a while that Pabrai's funds have not beaten the markets if you strip out those years when it was a $2M fund.  And it sure as heck seems like to me that more likely than not, his fund will lag the S&P500 tr in the future.

I mean the fund is like VIX on drugs.  The 3 highest years when the index was up, he trounced the index. The 3 lowest years for the index he lagged.  I think he forgot the meaning of the word hedge.

The basic premise of Buffett & Munger's beliefs is that volatility is not the same thing as risk. 

I think the first time Pabrai got trounced in 2008, you could have equated the volatility with risk, because there was significant exposure to correlated risks in financials.  The second time the fund suffered, I don't think you could make the same correlation...it was just undervalued and he took a hit with one stock.

So while the opinion always seems to still be out on Pabrai, I would not be surprised to see him out of the fund business in less than 10 years.  At that point, his own personal stake would have climbed from the present $120M or so to $350M-500M.  He may just decide that he wants to travel the lecture circuit and manage his own money. 

Nothing Pabrai said to me...but after 25 years of results, those that think you are an asshole and a fraud will still think that!

Cheers!

Is there any difference between 120M and 360M if you take account of his lifestyle? I don't think it makes any difference.

Parsad

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #232 on: January 16, 2018, 01:59:24 PM »
Not bad:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2018/01/pabrai-funds-returns/

I wonder how close this gets him to his 26% goal?

By the way, does anyone have his letter they'd share?

OMG, how can they write such a shoddy article!  It says from oct 2003-2018 the s&p500 returned 250% cumulative. Which makes the funds 310% look great over the same period. I punched in the number and that sounds about right. BUT the S&P500 TR returned 340%, comon, you cannot compare a fund against an index without dividends.

I think the debate had been going on for a while that Pabrai's funds have not beaten the markets if you strip out those years when it was a $2M fund.  And it sure as heck seems like to me that more likely than not, his fund will lag the S&P500 tr in the future.

I mean the fund is like VIX on drugs.  The 3 highest years when the index was up, he trounced the index. The 3 lowest years for the index he lagged.  I think he forgot the meaning of the word hedge.

The basic premise of Buffett & Munger's beliefs is that volatility is not the same thing as risk. 

I think the first time Pabrai got trounced in 2008, you could have equated the volatility with risk, because there was significant exposure to correlated risks in financials.  The second time the fund suffered, I don't think you could make the same correlation...it was just undervalued and he took a hit with one stock.

So while the opinion always seems to still be out on Pabrai, I would not be surprised to see him out of the fund business in less than 10 years.  At that point, his own personal stake would have climbed from the present $120M or so to $350M-500M.  He may just decide that he wants to travel the lecture circuit and manage his own money. 

Nothing Pabrai said to me...but after 25 years of results, those that think you are an asshole and a fraud will still think that!

Cheers!

Is there any difference between 120M and 360M if you take account of his lifestyle? I don't think it makes any difference.

I was just being facetious.  Mohnish is not the type to retire, and he likes to face challenges head on, so it's unlikely he'll close Pabrai Funds permanently.

Plus pulling in the type of quarterly fees he is getting now that he's back at his high watermark is pretty good incentive to keep going a while longer!   ;D  Cheers!
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oddballstocks

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #233 on: January 16, 2018, 02:32:55 PM »
The criticism on the returns minus the first years is warranted.  Him trumpeting those returns is slimy.

That said I applaud him for two reasons:

1) The Japan net-nets trade.  He mentioned this in a video in 2011, I did it, it paid for the down payment on the house I'm in now.  He gave up quickly, but the trade worked for those who stuck with it.
2) He gave some talk on marketing.  The guy is a VERY good marketer, can probably sell ice to eskimos.  I purchased the books he mentioned.  That launched me on a journey to learn marketing and sales.  And that's still paying dividends years later.  Arguably it could be the best thing for me because it got me to dive into the business process more.  I turned a hobby into a real business. 

Parsad.  He should take your advice.  Shut down, enjoy investing on his own.  I don't know how any of you have investors, seems like the biggest pain in the world.  Why deal with that hassle?  They never seem happy. 
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Parsad

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #234 on: January 16, 2018, 02:45:49 PM »
"The criticism on the returns minus the first years is warranted.  Him trumpeting those returns is slimy."

Being selective creates its own issues.  At least what Mohnish is presenting are the bald facts from day one...not sure how anyone can argue with that.  If he takes the lumps on the bad years, then he should get the benefit of the doubt on the good years.  Cheers!
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netnet

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #235 on: January 16, 2018, 03:56:55 PM »
interestingly enough, it looks as if Pabrai's automated 'free lunch' portfolio, as recounted in Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/janetnovack/2017/12/15/the-free-lunch-15-stock-portfolio/#533416406b38
beat his own portfolio (after fees) in back testing.

oddballstocks

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #236 on: January 16, 2018, 05:57:58 PM »
"The criticism on the returns minus the first years is warranted.  Him trumpeting those returns is slimy."

Being selective creates its own issues.  At least what Mohnish is presenting are the bald facts from day one...not sure how anyone can argue with that.  If he takes the lumps on the bad years, then he should get the benefit of the doubt on the good years.  Cheers!

I think the issue is you couldn't invest in that portfolio as an outside investor.  It was his own capital.

This is no different from the fund managers who disappear when returns are bad and reappear when returns are good.  I have a slew of letters where selective years are missing.  To Pabrai's credit he does include everything.  There is one lauded value investor who just suddenly stopped including a really bad year.  Stuff like that is terrible.  So what, we have good and bad years, but don't try to hide it. 
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Parsad

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #237 on: January 16, 2018, 06:54:32 PM »
"The criticism on the returns minus the first years is warranted.  Him trumpeting those returns is slimy."

Being selective creates its own issues.  At least what Mohnish is presenting are the bald facts from day one...not sure how anyone can argue with that.  If he takes the lumps on the bad years, then he should get the benefit of the doubt on the good years.  Cheers!

I think the issue is you couldn't invest in that portfolio as an outside investor.  It was his own capital.

This is no different from the fund managers who disappear when returns are bad and reappear when returns are good.  I have a slew of letters where selective years are missing.  To Pabrai's credit he does include everything.  There is one lauded value investor who just suddenly stopped including a really bad year.  Stuff like that is terrible.  So what, we have good and bad years, but don't try to hide it.

I agree with you that alot of crap is passed off as results and investment manager memories are very selective.

But in Pabrai's case, you could easily argue that PIF3 has similar long-term results as PIF2 (which amalgamated with PIF1), and PIF3 didn't benefit from that first year.  Do we now negate the results in PIF3?

And even if people are put off by Pabrai's showmanship and marketing, you have to give credit where it's due in terms of sticking with his methodology after two periods where most hedge fund managers would have bailed or started a new fund...after only one such event.  This guy stuck with it twice now!

Cheers!
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investmd

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #238 on: January 16, 2018, 09:14:21 PM »
PIF3 returned 109% in 2017! The fund doesn't hold a single N.American based company! Wow.

As shown very nicely in a recent post by Recemize analyzing top Value Investors, the best of the best money managers can average 15%/yr over long periods of time. Pabrai is not at his goal 25% return/yr, but he is at 15%/yr. Select company.


"The criticism on the returns minus the first years is warranted.  Him trumpeting those returns is slimy."

Being selective creates its own issues.  At least what Mohnish is presenting are the bald facts from day one...not sure how anyone can argue with that.  If he takes the lumps on the bad years, then he should get the benefit of the doubt on the good years.  Cheers!

I think the issue is you couldn't invest in that portfolio as an outside investor.  It was his own capital.

This is no different from the fund managers who disappear when returns are bad and reappear when returns are good.  I have a slew of letters where selective years are missing.  To Pabrai's credit he does include everything.  There is one lauded value investor who just suddenly stopped including a really bad year.  Stuff like that is terrible.  So what, we have good and bad years, but don't try to hide it.

I agree with you that alot of crap is passed off as results and investment manager memories are very selective.

But in Pabrai's case, you could easily argue that PIF3 has similar long-term results as PIF2 (which amalgamated with PIF1), and PIF3 didn't benefit from that first year.  Do we now negate the results in PIF3?

And even if people are put off by Pabrai's showmanship and marketing, you have to give credit where it's due in terms of sticking with his methodology after two periods where most hedge fund managers would have bailed or started a new fund...after only one such event.  This guy stuck with it twice now!

Cheers!

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Re: Mohnish Pabrai blog
« Reply #239 on: January 16, 2018, 10:57:53 PM »
I purchased the books he mentioned.  That launched me on a journey to learn marketing and sales.  And that's still paying dividends years later.  Arguably it could be the best thing for me because it got me to dive into the business process more.  I turned a hobby into a real business. 


What were the books he mentioned please? Cheers.