Author Topic: Multibagger speculative ideas  (Read 90413 times)

dolce2think

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Multibagger speculative ideas
« on: November 25, 2014, 07:37:37 AM »
As the FNMA thread is doing very well, I'd like to start a new thread about multibaggers, please throw your ideas out, mine are:

1) FNMAS
2) Gold miners
3) Maxwell Technologies

Thxs,
Dolce


bizaro86

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #1 on: November 25, 2014, 09:04:12 AM »
My current favourite speculative potential multi-bagger is STP.DB (trading in Toronto). The company is an oil producer with a  2 producing assets. One that they bought at a bargain price a few years ago and have started starving of capital due to their extremely distressed balance sheet/cashflow position. The other is an oilsands project that has been continually having performance issues. The company is not likely to be able to repay the debt they took on to build the oilsands project without a material improvement in its productivity.

I think the company is almost certain to require CCAA/restructuring, but I think the debentures are a potential multi-bagger anyway at their current price of $2.50 per $100 of par value. The company recently sold a non-core asset for $19.5 million, which gives them enough liquidity to meet their December debt payments and operate for a few more months after that (probably 3-6, depending on various factors). The debentures are owed $3 per $100 of par value this december, so a speculation could return all its capital in a short time if they make the payment.

If they don't, they would convert the debentures to shares at Par, at a 5% discount to the recent share price. This would be my preferred option, as although that would immediately tank the stock even further, I'd probably be able to sell the shares for more than the current debenture prices indicate, and likely for a 3-5 bagger.

The hugely speculative upside option is that they make the payments in december, and their production turns around from ICD installations (inflow control devices have been installed at the oilsands project, and scuttlebutt is they're starting to work). If they do, the debt could be worth 30-40 cents on the dollar easily.

yadayada

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #2 on: November 25, 2014, 09:09:34 AM »
Outerwall LEAPS

rukawa

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2014, 09:09:56 AM »

snow pea

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #4 on: November 25, 2014, 11:59:37 AM »
My current favourite speculative potential multi-bagger is STP.DB (trading in Toronto).

This is sort of a general question spurred by your suggestion.  Where do you find the documents describing the terms for such debentures as these?  I took a look on SEDAR for company filings but I have no idea what the filing would be called (if its even there).  Hopefully this isn't too dumb of a question.

yadayada

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #5 on: November 25, 2014, 12:17:00 PM »
OPRX is another one. Huge operating leverage.

Schwab711

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #6 on: November 25, 2014, 12:23:46 PM »
ELDO

bizaro86

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2014, 12:30:32 PM »
My current favourite speculative potential multi-bagger is STP.DB (trading in Toronto).

This is sort of a general question spurred by your suggestion.  Where do you find the documents describing the terms for such debentures as these?  I took a look on SEDAR for company filings but I have no idea what the filing would be called (if its even there).  Hopefully this isn't too dumb of a question.

Not at all. The prospectus is on Sedar. It is filed as Final short form prospectus, and dated Dec 23, 2010. I generally find it easier to search Sedar by date rather than filing type. If you google "Southern Pacific sells debentures" or something similar, you can find out when they sold the securities, and the prospectus will be on Sedar around that time. Hope that helps.

original mungerville

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2014, 01:28:09 PM »
- I like silver (SLV) out of the money 2017 options; and
- Gold miners (Sprott Gold miner ETF, GDX, GDXJ - probably in this order)

You guys are going to think I am nuts but I think the Western central banks have pushed paper gold prices down so much, and there is so much physical demand right now for gold and silver that the jig may very soon be up (ie default on Comex due to inability to deliver physical - contracts could cash settle). Even without such an event, with backwardation currently at 6 months for gold futures, the physical price mechanism should assert itself soon.

This feels to me like Fairfax in 2003/04 with the hedge funds naked shorting. In this case, its coordinated central bank intervention pushing the paper market lower combined with similar banking manipulation of the precious metals markets. As bad as Fairfax was then, this seems worse in terms of what I am up against. Then, I lost a ton of money before making it all back and more. Same thing now: I have lost a ton of money. I am holding firm though - it may be a big mistake.

I think miners could double in a year and go up 10x from these levels over the next 5 years. As for the SLV out of the money options, 20-50x depending how out of the money you are.

The people on this board were viewed as crazy with regard to their positive outlook on Fairfax circa 2003/04. So call me crazy but this is what I am doing. 

snow pea

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Re: Multibagger speculative ideas
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2014, 01:51:55 PM »
Not at all. The prospectus is on Sedar. It is filed as Final short form prospectus, and dated Dec 23, 2010. I generally find it easier to search Sedar by date rather than filing type. If you google "Southern Pacific sells debentures" or something similar, you can find out when they sold the securities, and the prospectus will be on Sedar around that time. Hope that helps.

Very helpful, thank you very much.