Author Topic: Nordic European Banks  (Read 2499 times)

kab60

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2019, 01:55:31 AM »
My understanding is the US has given itself the right to fine anybody doing illicit transactions in USD. No matter where. There have been big fines for Telcos bribing with USD in Azerbadjian and neighbours.
This.
I'm pretty close to the situation and do think the setup looks interesting (but I'm not allowed to invest), but it's difficult to handicap. Whether the equity is cheap depends on the size of an eventual fine. And then, like with Wells, costs are gonna be high for years due to increased compliance etc. etc. Another thing, which might be overlooked here, is that most Nordics banks are structurally struggling at the moment since interest rates have come down again - and are expected to stay down for a long time - and still consumers aren't really spending. And so far they haven't been very good at passing increased costs on to their customers so profitability might be weak for a long time. Which basically means most banks look very cheap on a p/TBV basis. But that's clearly a function of a low expected ROE.


John Hjorth

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2019, 02:13:36 AM »
It's actually a good question, Spekulatius,

DANSKE does not even have a US banking license. I think it is about section 9.3.16 [p. 48] in the Bruun & Hjejle Report. A reporter has dived deep into this, and found out it was a US bank, that had cut ties in 2013 with the Estonian DANSKE branch on grounds of dirty money rolling in. I do not recall the information with full precision, but by best recollection it was a branch in Germany of C or JPM.

[Again, I do not consider myself mean, but I still remember the feeling of the endorfines that got released out in my body by reading it, because it was one the US banks that I own [ : - ) ]] [There may perhaps be a fine to that bank also for not stopping it timely.]

So I suppose a minor army of regulators after reading this stuff has jumped on an plane in New York and has been raiding a branch office of C or JPM, so every normal business routine there basically has come to a stop for a period, perhaps in Frankfurt?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2019, 02:46:11 AM by John Hjorth »
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John Hjorth

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2019, 03:21:24 AM »
You're right, kab,

Here [lower part of page] is a crash introduction to Danish bond rates.

Red: Short EUR rate
Black : Short rate [DKK]
Green/grey [<- sort of] : Long rate [DKK]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

John Hjorth

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2019, 08:57:53 AM »
An example of what's going on here with DANSKE :

Finans.dk  [April 11th 2019] : Experts : Danske Bank is missing DKK 50 billion in [capital] buffer.

So, two so called "experts" - university professors - [publicly] "telling" both the Danish FSA and the bank, that none of them can calculate the actual capital situation of the bank correctly ... [*rolling eyes*]
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

John Hjorth

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #14 on: April 12, 2019, 02:09:12 AM »
Danish Business Authority [April 12th 2019] : Danish Business Authority reports EY to State Prosecutor for Serious Economic and International Crime.

Now I think every Danish possible & relevant participant has joined the party in the mud puddle by "invitation" - I think the DANSKE auditors were the last ones missing. Here it is about the 2014 financials for DANSKE, and lack of reporting about money laundering for 2014 to the State Prosecutors money laundering office. The DBA investigation of DANSKE continues.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2019, 02:17:42 AM by John Hjorth »
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

peterism

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #15 on: April 12, 2019, 11:07:37 AM »
I am local. Reading on daly basis about all these things here  :)

Danske Bank is out already.
Nordea technically is still here, but is on the way out. Nordea and DNB Bank created joint bank called Luminor (https://www.luminor.lv/en)
and most probably will sell it soon.
Swedbank will stay. They call Sweden and Baltics their home markets. It will be huge political blow if they decide to leave. I believe that governments will kick in some effort if things will start to move in to this direction.

For Danske and Nordea exposure to the Baltics was small compared to the rest of their business.
Damage will be more to reputation than to business if they avoid heavy fines.

Swedbank is more exposed. 10.8% of all their lending is in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.

Hope that helps.

Peteris,

How about SEB? I haven't spent much time on it for some years now, because it has been doing quite well over the years since I first invested in the Wallenberg Sphere via Investor AB [, which hold a large chunk of SEB].

Naturally both the bank and Investor AB are mute right now - perhaps working like crazy internally to get a firm grip on it if the bank has a problem similar to Danske Bank, Swedbank & Nordea in the Baltic States.

Any news related to that from your angle? -Thank you in advance.

It is clear that SEB subsidiaries in the Baltic countries also have non-resident accounts. I don't have special insights, but heard from CEO of Latvian branch words like: "looking back it is clear that we could ask more information from our customers, but we are absolutely sure that intentionally we never supported illegal cash flows".     

John Hjorth

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Re: Nordic European Banks
« Reply #16 on: May 10, 2019, 03:39:42 AM »
Danske Bank [May 10th 2019] : Danske Bank appoints new CEO.

I'll start looking at the bank and it's situation from now and going forward. I have no idea about what that will bring. I'll soon open a separate topic in the Investment Ideas forum about DANSKE, without pitching it, but for discussion.
”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai