Author Topic: POLL: Fed and interest rates  (Read 15299 times)

shalab

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John Hjorth

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”In the race of excellence … there is no finish line.”
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shalab

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #52 on: March 22, 2019, 05:45:22 PM »
We have inverted yield curve now - comparing 3 month treasury to the 10 year treasury

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=yield

Fed still thinks they can have a rate hike in 2020

thefatbaboon

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #53 on: March 23, 2019, 03:23:50 AM »
Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Cardboard

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #54 on: March 23, 2019, 04:48:07 AM »
Yup! Went from 2 rate hikes in 2019, to data based driven, to none whatsoever in 3 months.

Then just before this latest decision goes on CBS 60 minutes to brag about himself and the rest of his academicians bunch.

This entire Fed is a joke. Really have no clue and as I said previously never orchestrated a soft landing in their entire history.

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Cigarbutt

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #55 on: March 23, 2019, 05:23:36 AM »
Yup! Went from 2 rate hikes in 2019, to data based driven, to none whatsoever in 3 months.

Then just before this latest decision goes on CBS 60 minutes to brag about himself and the rest of his academicians bunch.

This entire Fed is a joke. Really have no clue and as I said previously never orchestrated a soft landing in their entire history.

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Read lately here and elsewhere:
-The Fed hasn't been able to engineer a strong recovery after the 2007-9 episode.
-The Fed has had a hard time managing the economy due to unforeseen circumstances.
-The Fed hasn't been able to stage a credible exit process.

In the last 20 years, most of positive stock returns have occurred around FOMC meetings, the GFC happened more than 10 years ago and, on a relative basis, the Fed had only started to decrease its balance sheet.

Question:
How have we come to rely so much on central planners?

Spekulatius

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #56 on: March 23, 2019, 05:58:42 AM »
Recession would occur with and without the Fed. It looks like the yield curve inverses due to rates in the EU being inverses, not because the economy is too weak. I don’t see credit freezing up, nor do I see a recession. The only issue I see is that the Fed is talking about what they are going to do and it seems counterproductive. I suggest they do whatever they want to do and shut up about what they are intend to do in the future.

I personally like some volatility in the stock market. Another panik run this year would be great.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Cardboard

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #57 on: March 23, 2019, 07:07:49 AM »
"Recession would occur with and without the Fed. "

Sure but, no need to add fuel to the fire as they do each and every time! Never noticed that they never seem to think about the dollar strength, what copper says, what other currencies and interest rates are?

"I personally like some volatility in the stock market. Another panik run this year would be great."

Feels to me like the Fed is a tool for the ultra wealthy to actually accentuate these panics. Maybe to overthrow some administrations as well. Bilderberg comes to mind:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/bilderberg-group-conspiracy-theories-secret-societies-new-world-order-alex-jones-a8377171.html

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shalab

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #58 on: March 23, 2019, 07:40:08 AM »
In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Spekulatius

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Re: POLL: Fed and interest rates
« Reply #59 on: March 23, 2019, 08:25:03 AM »
In addition, 70% on this board supported rate hikes. It shows how politics can turn ones head into cabbage, ala Munger.

Continue to be amazed at the recklessness of Powell.  Pushing through those eight sequential hikes...especially the december one.  And then within a few days  he's speechifying in January and again now dialing it all back in the face of data that was already rather obvious to even the most casual observer. Clown

Huh? What have the Fed hikes to do with politics ? Powell was chosen by Trump, by the way.
Anyways, I can’t see how  a 2.5% interest rates (real interest rate is 0.5-1% after inflation) can cause a problem. It sure seems to be a preferable situation Europe, where interesting rates are virtually nil and the economic is crawling to a halt nevertheless. My guess is that the recent drop in LT interest rates in The EU is caused by Brexit uncertainty, which is an exogenous event for the US.

I also note think that every value investor should love volatility.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2019, 09:12:24 AM by Spekulatius »
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.