Author Topic: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)  (Read 8719 times)

Cardboard

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 3031
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #20 on: December 18, 2018, 07:35:12 AM »
Feels good to see that Stanley agrees with me. Hiking now is nuts with all the negative signals out there. He is totally right on risk/reward and cost of being wrong.

Tightening of monetary conditions via unwinding of QE does matter.

Cardboard


nickenumbers

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 202
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2018, 08:52:37 AM »
I am about 50% of the way thru the interview and it is a very good one!

He is a smart, logical, experienced and interesting guy. 

I smiled a bit when he threw some shade [criticized] on Ray Dalio's Beautiful Deleveraging concept.  Druckenmiller was like "I don't know what the hell Dalio was talking about."  <-- Not exactly, but pretty much.  I wonder what 2 Economists' fighting looks like??  Thoughts??


I don't know enough about Druckenmiller's present holdings to know if he is hoping to profit from his opinion, and is out beating the bushes in favor of his positions.  I don't know him like that.  But, I do think he is very interesting to listen to.
The fastest Cheetah still waits for the lame baby antelope.  ..patience..

cherzeca

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1942
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2018, 09:04:08 AM »
druck seems to receive a whole lot more signals than I do. [sigh]

mwtorock

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 146
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #23 on: December 18, 2018, 10:54:53 AM »
He surely did not like Ray Dalio.  :P

Dalal.Holdings

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 289
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #24 on: December 18, 2018, 11:49:20 AM »
Lol...supposedly according to this video, Stan has never had a down year and has compounded at over 30% for 120 quarters (30 years)...yet for some reason after such a record he's not richer than Buffett. "Best performance in history". Is this a joke? I distinctly remember this guy jumping in with both feet at the peak of the 2000 tech bubble...

I guess they didn't look too closely at Stan's real track record:

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2010/08/18/reviewing-the-druckenmiller-decades/

Quote
2000: At the peak of the technology boom in 1999 and 2000, Mr. Druckenmiller makes a big bet on Internet stocks. He was a huge buyer of VeriSign, which fell by about 50 percent in a month. The bursting of the dot-com bubble in March 2000 crushes Quantum’s portfolio, prompting Mr. Druckenmiller to quit his post managing the Quantum Fund after a dozen years. At the time, he said: “We thought it was the eighth inning, and it was the ninth. I overplayed my hand.”

Oh, I guess he quit working for Soros, so we can just ignore his investment results while at Quantum and just look at his performance via the funds where he performed well (survivorship bias). It'd be like saying "well, I lost everything in my core portfolio last year, but my IRA was up 10%, so I beat the market!".

Here's a WSJ article on him from 2000:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB95894419575853588

Quote
Stan admitted to me that he didn't quite understand the entire story and was uncomfortable with valuations," says Richard Eakle, an outside money manager who took part in Soros internal conferences this year. "But everyone was intimidated by Stan. It was a group of yes-men at the meetings."

More:

https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/05/16/druckenmillers-big-mistake/

Quote
In early 1999, Druckenmiller shorted $200 million worth of tech stocks in George Soros’s Quantum Fund. He went short an inning too early, and was forced to cover a few months later after a $600 million loss. Through May, the fund was down 18%. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite was up 15% and the S&P 500 was up 10%.

I prefer Buffett/Munger view on pontificating on the markets vs. Druckenmiller's: don't waste your time trying to play the market over short time periods.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 12:07:46 PM by Dalal.Holdings »

Liberty

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 11140
  • twitter.com/libertyRPF
    • twitter.com/libertyRPF
« Last Edit: December 19, 2018, 05:56:12 AM by Liberty »
"Most haystacks don't even have a needle." |  I'm on Twitter  | This podcast episode is a must-listen

Viking

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1469
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #26 on: December 18, 2018, 07:50:48 PM »
Great second interview. So. Much to learn from these cagy old veterens; great to hear him talk for a full hour and explain his change in thinking. The internet really is an amazing thing. And free :-)

“What are the qualities or characteristics that a money manager should have today”
1.) intellectually curious
2.) really open minded
3.) courage
      a.) bet big / concentrate
      b.) fight your own emotions

He said this with 2 minutes left in the video. Great advice for anyone who wants to be successful at investing. 

And it will be very interesting to see what the Fed does tomorrow especially what they say about the path of future rate increases. If they increase rates tomorrow and stay hawkish (dot plots telegraphs 3 more increases in 2019) get ready for a shit storm in stocks. If the Fed gets more dovish then perhaps we get a short term relief rally. Very murky right now.
« Last Edit: December 18, 2018, 07:56:17 PM by Viking »

Cigarbutt

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1572
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #27 on: December 18, 2018, 08:28:41 PM »
Great second interview. So. Much to learn from these cagy old veterens; great to hear him talk for a full hour and explain his change in thinking. The internet really is an amazing thing. And free :-)

“What are the qualities or characteristics that a money manager should have today”
1.) intellectually curious
2.) really open minded
3.) courage
      a.) bet big / concentrate
      b.) fight your own emotions

He said this with 2 minutes left in the video. Great advice for anyone who wants to be successful at investing. 

And it will be very interesting to see what the Fed does tomorrow especially what they say about the path of future rate increases. If they increase rates tomorrow and stay hawkish (dot plots telegraphs 3 more increases in 2019) get ready for a shit storm in stocks. If the Fed gets more dovish then perhaps we get a short term relief rally. Very murky right now.
The stock market needs a fix in order to finish the year with a Santa Claus rally.

savant

  • Jr. Member
  • **
  • Posts: 62
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #28 on: December 20, 2018, 12:53:40 PM »
Another hour-long interview with Druckenmiller:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-on-economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview-video
Can anyone explain what he means in the 41.53 mark onwards when he is asked if it is time to short credit:
"Its easy t short credit if you are long treasuries becauseif rates are going up I don't want to be short credit because they are an interest rate instrument and if I make money in treasuries its because the economy fell apart and they'll be a lot of good credit shorts. So 5-6% absolute nominal yields for stuff that would be 8 or 9 in an environment like this the risk-reward is just terrible in an environment like this, for credit"


Thanks!

SHDL

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 324
Re: Stanley Druckenmiller interview (2018)
« Reply #29 on: December 20, 2018, 01:32:14 PM »
Another hour-long interview with Druckenmiller:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2018-12-18/druckenmiller-on-economy-stocks-bonds-trump-fed-full-interview-video
Can anyone explain what he means in the 41.53 mark onwards when he is asked if it is time to short credit:
"Its easy t short credit if you are long treasuries becauseif rates are going up I don't want to be short credit because they are an interest rate instrument and if I make money in treasuries its because the economy fell apart and they'll be a lot of good credit shorts. So 5-6% absolute nominal yields for stuff that would be 8 or 9 in an environment like this the risk-reward is just terrible in an environment like this, for credit"


Thanks!

I can’t read his mind (obviously) but here’s my interpretation:

First, he thinks (at least a certain segment of) corporate bonds are overpriced and he is therefore shorting them.  Second, he is hedging against the risk of an interest rate decline (which would make the bond prices go up) by going long treasuries at the same time.  Third, he thinks this is a good bet in part because it is one that makes money precisely if/when the economy/market goes to hell.

I’m quite certain about the first two points.  He’s not as explicit about the third point, but at least that’s how I would think about this trade.