Author Topic: The World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Farm Will Be as Cheap as Coal  (Read 1618 times)

SharperDingaan

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Re: The World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Farm Will Be as Cheap as Coal
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2019, 07:11:19 AM »
All of this really drives home the point. Few are of a doubt that it’s a good long-term business, but net of discounted future cashflow; it’s very volatile in todays environment. In the short-term you are trading volatility, in the long-term you effectively own an essential business. This example is wind turbines. It could just as easily be electric cars, or the space industry. You are planting saplings in waste land; your kids benefit, not you.

There are many easier ways of doing the same thing – simply buy a ‘widows and orphans’ stock, and never sell. The continuously growing dividend will serve you well, and leave your capital for the kids. Different strokes for different folks.

SD


perulv

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Re: The World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Farm Will Be as Cheap as Coal
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2019, 08:33:03 AM »
... Not sure what a good investment would be, related to this. Equinor is still very much an oil/gas company. I keep thinking there must be a quality company out there doing something (smart-)grid related, that will benefit from a shift to renewables. One that is not just a part of a giant like e.g. ABB.

Per,

How about BOL.PA - Bolloré SE. Still part of something bigger, but at least an interesting stab at it. Bolloré - Electricity storage and systems. Vincent Bolloré has poured several hundred M EUR into it over the years from his cash cow [the logistics business], and he [and now one of his sons, Cyrill] is not going to give up on it.

Thanks for the tip. From a quick look it seems to be a bit more heavy on debt than I like (55% of total asserts) and a bit low on roe/roa. But I will add it to my list, and keep digging.

All of this really drives home the point. Few are of a doubt that it’s a good long-term business, but net of discounted future cashflow; it’s very volatile in todays environment. In the short-term you are trading volatility, in the long-term you effectively own an essential business. This example is wind turbines. It could just as easily be electric cars, or the space industry. You are planting saplings in waste land; your kids benefit, not you.

My best investment by far was buying SolarEdge around $15 a couple of years ago. Not that one stock-pick proves anything, but nevertheless this is a "renewable energy company" that did 6x on my investment. And a company that fits my / some definition of value / quality investing : little to no debt, good roa/roe, low ebit /ev (at the time anyway).

They make inverters, something needed for solar power installations. And probably for battery storage as well, given that batteries are dc and the grid is ac. I guess they almost sell the proverbial showel in the gold rush. I want to find more such companies :) Advanced Energy Industries seems to maybe be in the same category...


Spekulatius

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Re: The World’s Biggest Offshore Wind Farm Will Be as Cheap as Coal
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2019, 02:34:40 PM »
Quote
Advanced Energy Industries seems to maybe be in the same category...

Advanced Energy is heavily tied to the semiconductor and display industry. Their power supplies are used for thin film deposition pretty much everywhere.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.