Undervalued Insurers?

[twacowfca]

No, But I pulled the book value from a Reuters spreadsheet, and from an S&P spreadsheet.  Book value accounts for the debt.  So, the conversion of shares should make little difference to BV/share assuming the US doesn't profit too handsomely.

It is an intriguing proposition but the analysis is cumbersome to say the least.  

I think BV per share will be about the same $44 or so with allowance for the preferreds.  But BV is inflated. They've got some big time latent reserve deficiencies, IMO.  The Treasury gave up for nothing the options that they got in the first AIG bailout stage before they later put in all the TARP money for preferreds.  Wonder why they did that?  Doesn't make economic sense.  Current common holders also get warrants.  Again, doesn't make economic sense for taxpayers.  Chicago politics?

[Uccmal]

No, But I pulled the book value from a Reuters spreadsheet, and from an S&P spreadsheet.  Book value accounts for the debt.  So, the conversion of shares should make little difference to BV/share assuming the US doesn't profit too handsomely.

It is an intriguing proposition but the analysis is cumbersome to say the least. 

But BV is inflated. They've got some big time latent reserve deficiencies, IMO.

That is the problem of analyzing AIG particularly the long tail life policies.  You have too look at every subs reserving.  Now, if Berkowitz stabilizes their balance sheet and forces them to reserve properly then they may look like Geico one day.  The biggest problem is that under reserving can be hidden from the cash flow for awhile. 

I dont see the stock price rebounding in any hurry so there is lots of time to wait and see.  It could be Berkowitz's Sears or Salomon Bros.