Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1218483 times)

John Hjorth

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2940 on: May 03, 2018, 09:30:03 AM »
Just buy some more BRK.B, Jeff! It's the perfect time of the year for it - about 50,000 Berkaholics [all of them constantly buying Berkshire, under eternal avarage ins] - coming out of their holes and caves, to go to Omekka - oops, typo here - Omaha - to have a good time and good experience! So the market price goes down because of lack of presence of the usual buyers in the market. -Capital allocation has momentarily switched from Berkshire to beer!

[If you sense a stint of envy in this post, I assure you it is! I will have to settle with Yahoo Finance - not that bad either ...]
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai


gfp

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2941 on: May 03, 2018, 10:35:59 AM »
Added to BRK today as well.  Great price around 190.  Quarterly report out Saturday morning with new cash balance (should be huge) and quite possibly zero net earnings on the headline number because of the new mark-to-market equities passing through the income statement..

Just buy some more BRK.B, Jeff! It's the perfect time of the year for it - about 50,000 Berkaholics [all of them constantly buying Berkshire, under eternal avarage ins] - coming out of their holes and caves, to go to Omekka - oops, typo here - Omaha - to have a good time and good experience! So the market price goes down because of lack of presence of the usual buyers in the market. -Capital allocation has momentarily switched from Berkshire to beer!

[If you sense a stint of envy in this post, I assure you it is! I will have to settle with Yahoo Finance - not that bad either ...]

Charlie

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2942 on: May 03, 2018, 12:47:11 PM »
"Added to BRK today as well.  Great price around 190.  Quarterly report out Saturday morning with new cash balance (should be huge) and quite possibly zero net earnings on the headline number because of the new mark-to-market equities passing through the income statement.."

I also bought some B shares. At P/B of 1,358 and earnings out at Saturday its a good buy.
And of course I like the big Apple position, which probably got bigger.  :)

treasurehunt

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2943 on: May 03, 2018, 08:58:58 PM »
I may need to duck and cover after posting this, but I bought some Biglari Holdings today.

I know, Sardar is the worst partner money can buy, but this is just a short-term trade on the assumption that the 20%+ drop in the price of BH is due mostly to the company getting dumped from the Smallcap 600 index. Reading reports of the annual meeting that was held last week, it doesn't look like Sardar dropped any unexpected bombs that would explain the cratering stock price (the dual class stock structure was a foregone conclusion). Volume in the stock today was about 30 times normal volume, which is probably due to index funds selling.

In any case, the next couple of weeks will either make me some money or teach me an expensive lesson.

Valid posts about BH from several fellow board members here - but not based on the time horizon applied by treasurehunt for this move. To me, it's more like SharperDingaan buying DB back in September 2016.

Thank you, John. I don't disagree with Ballinvarosig's valuation either (except for the market cap error in his first post). But my thesis is just that the sudden drop in price was due mostly to index fund selling. Of course I am down about 7% on this trade so far, so this isn't looking like a hot idea so far. :-) But I am going to hold on for a couple of weeks unless some other reason for the drop surfaces.

I don't think DanielGMask's concerns about management integrity are very meaningful to my trade (not to say that management integrity is completely irrelevant here, but it's a risk I am comfortable taking). Also, I hardly ever do any short-term trading, and I consider this an experiment where I might learn something.

John Hjorth

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2944 on: May 03, 2018, 09:46:14 PM »
I have tried to do a to some degree similar trade like you do here treasurehunt. The real point here is, that if you never try it, you will never learn it. So H/T to you from me for doing it, and posting about it.
In the race of excellence there is no finish line.
-HH Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President and Prime Minister of the United Arab Emirates and Ruler of Dubai

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2945 on: May 06, 2018, 04:16:10 AM »
I have tried to do a to some degree similar trade like you do here treasurehunt. The real point here is, that if you never try it, you will never learn it. So H/T to you from me for doing it, and posting about it.

You need to set hard exit criteria for these kind of trades. In case of BH, I think you would need to set a date by which the position is sold. If you dont do this, you let the botched short term trades become a long term investment, while you know they are not potatoes really. Beware of changes in the investment thesis, they rarely work out.

Easy to say, but hard to do.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

LR1400

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2946 on: May 06, 2018, 07:16:47 AM »
Im also going to do some short to moderate term trading as John discussed, and note what he and Spek have said.

All of the successful people Ive studied that use this strategy use a trailing stop loss % of the high. They dont put it in they just mentally have that target and sell if the price reaches that.

JRM

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2947 on: May 06, 2018, 08:00:30 AM »
I've found that selling is far more difficult than buying.  I don't trade short term (because I'm terrible at it), but I've adopted a trading technique to my buying process.  I will establish my sell criteria before I make any purchase.  For traders the sell criteria could be a stop loss, price, or other technical indicator(s).  For me, I will sell if my core investment thesis is busted.  I will write down one to three (or so) bullet points that encapsulate my core investment thesis for a position.  If at any time if I realize my thesis is wrong, than I will re-evalute the position.  Its much easier said than done with something qualitative, but this approach also helps when the going gets tough.  This process has helped me hold onto eventual winners when the market wasn't cooperating early on.

Most novice investors tend to sell winners and hold onto losers until the portfolio is full of losers.  I would love to hear Buffett's thought process on IBM.  He will admit when he's wrong and move on.  He also made a little money on the "loser" IBM position.

treasurehunt

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2948 on: May 06, 2018, 04:34:39 PM »
I have tried to do a to some degree similar trade like you do here treasurehunt. The real point here is, that if you never try it, you will never learn it. So H/T to you from me for doing it, and posting about it.

You need to set hard exit criteria for these kind of trades. In case of BH, I think you would need to set a date by which the position is sold. If you dont do this, you let the botched short term trades become a long term investment, while you know they are not potatoes really. Beware of changes in the investment thesis, they rarely work out.

Easy to say, but hard to do.

Good point. My exit criteria for this trade aren't completely set in stone. My idea was to wait until trading volumes are back to normal levels and the impact of index selling has died down, but it's hard to know how long this will take. My estimate was two weeks, but it could be three weeks or four. The other thing I am paying attention to is whether there is some other reason for the substantial drop in BH stock. After the release of Q1 results, which were horrible, it appears that the drop reflects at least in part a real decrease in the intrinsic value of BH. So I am much less sure about the reasoning behind my trade. I will probably sell the stock this coming week.

Now to think about exactly what lesson I should learn from this. :-)

WayWardCloud

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2949 on: May 07, 2018, 01:05:16 PM »
Added big to GCI Liberty (GLIBA) today 12.8% > 20.3%
and to Liberty SiriusXM (LSXMA) 5.6% > 8.7%

Go Malone, Go!