Corner of Berkshire & Fairfax Message Board

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: LowIQinvestor on April 17, 2013, 08:04:47 AM

Title: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on April 17, 2013, 08:04:47 AM
Quick Question: If you are buying anything in size today what is it?

I am buying more BP...that's it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: compoundinglife on April 17, 2013, 08:11:45 AM
AAPL and NOV
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: obtuse_investor on April 17, 2013, 08:15:10 AM
In size? Absolutely nothing.

I may nibble on FFH if it drops enough.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: compoundinglife on April 17, 2013, 08:26:40 AM
AAPL and NOV

WRT size I guess I am not loading up just increased both of these positions from 2% each to around %3.5.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on April 17, 2013, 08:34:25 AM
I'm bought some AIG on Monday. I might buy some BAC if it drops more.
 :D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: WhoIsWarren on April 17, 2013, 08:49:54 AM
AAPL and NOV

Compoundinglife -- can you elaborate a bit more on NOV?  I've taken a look at the company and it looks very interesting.  However, I struggle with trying to come up with a (rough estimate) of NOV's earnings power.  You know, just dealing with the meteoric rise in profits over say the last 10 years -- a more than 10-fold increase -- is a bit daunting.

Also, I notice that while gross and operating margins are very high, the company's RoE is less impressive (10-12% 10-year average).  Presumably the reason is the goodwill created by their acquisitions, which would seem to have enormously helped in creating their pre-eminent position in the industry.  However it begs the question whether they've overpaid for deals and whether they feel a need to continue the acquisition strategy for years into the future.  What are your thoughts on that?

Finally, everything you read about NOV mentions their high market shares (NOV = No Other Vendor).  Have you been able to do any channel checks or to speak to any industry guys?  I'd be really interested to know whether this is just company spin, or whether there truly are high barriers for competitors?

[Sorry, not trying to hijack this "What are you buying today?" thread.  Anyone want to volunteer starting a NOV investment idea thread?  I'm sure there would be lots of interest in it.]

Thanks
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Icarus on April 17, 2013, 09:15:09 AM
I might nibble a bit on Total today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 17, 2013, 11:13:17 AM
OXY.  Looking for a copper play but FCX is persona non grata for me because I think the acquisition to bail out the energy plays was an abuse of the corporate funds borderline breach fiduciary duty.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ubuy2wron on April 17, 2013, 12:34:16 PM
ABX looks like I will be going down with the ship on this one.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: compoundinglife on April 17, 2013, 08:14:36 PM
AAPL and NOV

Compoundinglife -- can you elaborate a bit more on NOV?  I've taken a look at the company and it looks very interesting.  However, I struggle with trying to come up with a (rough estimate) of NOV's earnings power.  You know, just dealing with the meteoric rise in profits over say the last 10 years -- a more than 10-fold increase -- is a bit daunting.

Also, I notice that while gross and operating margins are very high, the company's RoE is less impressive (10-12% 10-year average).  Presumably the reason is the goodwill created by their acquisitions, which would seem to have enormously helped in creating their pre-eminent position in the industry.  However it begs the question whether they've overpaid for deals and whether they feel a need to continue the acquisition strategy for years into the future.  What are your thoughts on that?

Finally, everything you read about NOV mentions their high market shares (NOV = No Other Vendor).  Have you been able to do any channel checks or to speak to any industry guys?  I'd be really interested to know whether this is just company spin, or whether there truly are high barriers for competitors?

[Sorry, not trying to hijack this "What are you buying today?" thread.  Anyone want to volunteer starting a NOV investment idea thread?  I'm sure there would be lots of interest in it.]

Thanks

There is a thread in the general discussion area. I can respond there:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/national-oilwell-varco/
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on April 18, 2013, 12:05:22 PM
ABX looks like I will be going down with the ship on this one.

Doesn't the debt load worry you there?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: premfan on April 18, 2013, 01:22:57 PM
Added more coinstar today. Its my largest position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 24, 2013, 08:42:29 AM
Time to bump this thread.

I'm watching  ORCL, COH, RHT, PHI, AAPL, and some druggie companies.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sswan11 on June 24, 2013, 08:44:11 AM
AIG 2015 35 and 37 calls
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rjstc on June 24, 2013, 09:49:43 AM
Combining this with another recent thread "Strategies for Patience". I have GTC orders for Fairfax at $345. Markel for $440. Bidvest for $39. Plus I've gone to Maui for a month so I got further away from the noise.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rmitz on June 24, 2013, 10:12:52 AM
I keep watching lots of things that I've been involved with, but two of the ones I'm watching most closely right now are PVD and PKX.  AAPL may be interesting too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on June 24, 2013, 10:22:40 AM
Combining this with another recent thread "Strategies for Patience". I have GTC orders for Fairfax at $345. Markel for $440. Bidvest for $39. Plus I've gone to Maui for a month so I got further away from the noise.
  I'm hoping to open a position in Markel as well.  I was hoping some chop in earnings with the Alterra integration would provide an opportunity, but I suppose a potential panic about Chinese credit might work just as well! 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on June 24, 2013, 11:01:04 AM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rjstc on June 24, 2013, 11:08:38 AM
I have 10%+ positions already but I would like to add to these again at those prices. Have already been adding to LRE:XLON. These seem like pretty much no brainer long term positions. I had been taking some profits and building cash lately so this market selloff is nice.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on June 24, 2013, 11:23:31 AM
A rope.  With the market crashing it's pretty clear life is just about over.  Not much to live for with all the carnage out there.  This is terrible. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rjstc on June 24, 2013, 11:31:55 AM
A rope.  With the market crashing it's pretty clear life is just about over.  Not much to live for with all the carnage out there.  This is terrible.

I agree!! That's why I ran off. A last gasp of fresh air before the meltdown.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rkbabang on June 24, 2013, 11:36:04 AM
A rope.  With the market crashing it's pretty clear life is just about over.  Not much to live for with all the carnage out there.  This is terrible. 

That's a tough way to go, especially if you're not careful to do it right and you end up just blocking your airways and suffocating slowly to death.  You could do the Kurt Cobain thing, but even though that is quick it is messy.  May I recommend picking up a purple blanket, Nike sneakers, sleeping pills, and make some vodka jello shots.  The last people to use this method went with smiles still on their faces. 

There is always harakiri, it may be slow, painful and messy, but it is cool and will have people talking about it for a long time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on June 24, 2013, 11:45:15 AM
Thank you for the suggestions.  All very helpful.  So how are others dealing with this?  We are down double digits in basis points now!  So crazy.  I am not sure what will become of all of us.  Will the sun rise tomorrow?  Will Kanye and Kim have another kid and perhaps point him to the east or south?  So many questions, so little time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Parsad on June 24, 2013, 11:57:19 AM
Thank you for the suggestions.  All very helpful.  So how are others dealing with this?  We are down double digits in basis points now!  So crazy.  I am not sure what will become of all of us.  Will the sun rise tomorrow?  Will Kanye and Kim have another kid and perhaps point him to the east or south?  So many questions, so little time.

I think their child may be the anti-Christ!  If the U.S. ever faces its demise like Greece, Rome or the British Empire, it will sprout from the loins of the Kardashians!   ;D  Cheers!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rjstc on June 24, 2013, 12:04:32 PM
Like I read somewhere from some guy something like this "When the tide goes out you find out who is still wearing swim trunks". The image is one where it might cause some to use that rope.
  Then someone also said this which with patience might be an alternative. Buy cheap and something good might happen.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on June 24, 2013, 12:15:40 PM
Like I read somewhere from some guy something like this "When the tide goes out you find out who is still wearing swim trunks". The image is one where it might cause some to use that rope.
  Then someone also said this which with patience might be an alternative. Buy cheap and something good might happen.

Indeed.  I think that seeing most value investors in their swim trunks (or less) would be extremely distressing.

That someone sounds very wise.  Handsome and charismatic too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PlanMaestro on June 24, 2013, 12:24:48 PM
The Onion> http://www.theonion.com/video/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32940/
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rjstc on June 24, 2013, 12:45:18 PM
The Onion> http://www.theonion.com/video/markets-in-turmoil-as-price-of-money-skyrockets-to,32940/

That was great. Especially the lead in about male (Investors?) problems with aim. Stock picking?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LC on June 24, 2013, 12:59:04 PM
Looks like the grocery store has been having a slight sale the last few days. I picked up some tomatoes (WFC) and lettuce (PMI) but just a bit of each...maybe the sale will continue!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ShahKhezri on June 24, 2013, 01:22:39 PM
Sold 1/3 of IWM puts, bought back covered calls on NOV (at 70) and CF (at 195)...looking to put those on again at lower strikes, possibly in the money, get called and put to better use.

With the liquidity from the IWM puts, bought my last addition of SD (avg at 5.25 now) and added AAPL, now 2/3 done (avg of 418 now)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on June 24, 2013, 01:47:02 PM
La la lalalalalalala la la la . . .
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sswan11 on June 24, 2013, 06:16:49 PM
Anybody shorting Chinese banks or other stocks a la Chanos?

http://www.gurufocus.com/news/217031/short-selling-guru-jim-chanos--presentation-on-china-april-2013
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Packer16 on June 24, 2013, 06:22:26 PM
I took a toehold position in OIBR.  I could not resist the cheap price and the PT CEO taking the helm.

Packer
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 24, 2013, 06:44:28 PM
Altius.  Iron ore can come down a ways and it will still be a good investment.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: finetrader on June 24, 2013, 07:20:25 PM
Opened a position in Altius.
If it goes down more significantly I'm gonna attack this stock like a starved animal would do on a wounded prey.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on June 24, 2013, 08:27:47 PM
Altius.  Iron ore can come down a ways and it will still be a good investment.

What's your thesis, if you don't mind sharing?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on June 24, 2013, 11:12:30 PM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

I find myself in almost the same position of twacowfca. And I am doing nothing (except watching Wimbledon and listening to the new Kanye West’s album). :)

giofranchi
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on June 24, 2013, 11:17:02 PM
La la lalalalalalala la la la . . .

Well, cannot be sure what you mean... but... I DO AGREE!! ;D ;D ;D

giofranchi
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Parsad on June 25, 2013, 01:12:46 AM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

I find myself in almost the same position of twacowfca. And I am doing nothing (except watching Wimbledon and listening to the new Kanye West’s album). :)

giofranchi

Pretty much the same here as well.  I've seen quite a few movies over the last two months...only the last week have I found something to start looking at again.  Also busy with getting the Offshore fund off the ground...will launch August 1st!  I would be watching Wimbledon as well, but my man Nadal went out in the 1st round.  Now I won't watch until the round of 16.

If anyone is looking for a good theatre movie to watch..."This is The End" is very funny...raunchy, juvenile humor, with some great writing.  If you are looking for a good sci-fi film, watch "Looper"...excellent movie, wonderful acting!  Cheers!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on June 25, 2013, 01:31:27 AM
If anyone is looking for a good theatre movie to watch..."This is The End" is very funny...raunchy, juvenile humor, with some great writing.  If you are looking for a good sci-fi film, watch "Looper"...excellent movie, wonderful acting!  Cheers!

I haven't watched "This is The End" yet, but I surely agree on "Looper": excellent movie, wonderful acting! :)

giofranchi
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on June 25, 2013, 03:53:33 AM
If anyone is looking for a good theatre movie to watch..."This is The End" is very funny...raunchy, juvenile humor, with some great writing.  If you are looking for a good sci-fi film, watch "Looper"...excellent movie, wonderful acting!  Cheers!

I haven't watched "This is The End" yet, but I surely agree on "Looper": excellent movie, wonderful acting! :)

giofranchi

I recently saw The Next 3 Days with Russell Crowe and enjoyed it immensely.  To my knowledge it didn't get any traction in the theaters when it was out and I had never heard of it until recently.  It's a cut above the regular suspense/thriller movie and it's somewhat more "realistic" in the sense that Crowe doesn't play some superman who all of a sudden goes from regular life to taking on bad guys single handedly. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on June 25, 2013, 04:01:24 AM
I recently saw The Next 3 Days with Russell Crowe and enjoyed it immensely.  To my knowledge it didn't get any traction in the theaters when it was out and I had never heard of it until recently.  It's a cut above the regular suspense/thriller movie and it's somewhat more "realistic" in the sense that Crowe doesn't play some superman who all of a sudden goes from regular life to taking on bad guys single handedly.

Yes! Another very good movie, though a remake of a german movie starring Diane Kruger. Haven't seen the original. No need to, because "The Next 3 Days" is just fine! :)

giofranchi
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on June 25, 2013, 04:35:00 AM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

I find myself in almost the same position of twacowfca. And I am doing nothing (except watching Wimbledon and listening to the new Kanye West’s album). :)

giofranchi

Pretty much the same here as well.  I've seen quite a few movies over the last two months...only the last week have I found something to start looking at again.  Also busy with getting the Offshore fund off the ground...will launch August 1st!  I would be watching Wimbledon as well, but my man Nadal went out in the 1st round.  Now I won't watch until the round of 16.


Steve Darcis sure did great against Nadal. :D We have our fair share of talent in Belgium, at least in tennis.

Great that your offshore fund is launching soon. When can we expect more details?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Parsad on June 25, 2013, 11:18:12 AM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

I find myself in almost the same position of twacowfca. And I am doing nothing (except watching Wimbledon and listening to the new Kanye West’s album). :)

giofranchi

Pretty much the same here as well.  I've seen quite a few movies over the last two months...only the last week have I found something to start looking at again.  Also busy with getting the Offshore fund off the ground...will launch August 1st!  I would be watching Wimbledon as well, but my man Nadal went out in the 1st round.  Now I won't watch until the round of 16.


Steve Darcis sure did great against Nadal. :D We have our fair share of talent in Belgium, at least in tennis.

Great that your offshore fund is launching soon. When can we expect more details?

Next week or so.  Service providers are in place, general partner has been formed and our attorneys just finishing off the offering documents.  Only thing left to do is file everything and open the brokerage account with UBS.  Then we should be good to go in a couple of weeks.   Cheers!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on June 25, 2013, 11:51:17 AM
Oke. Looking forward to it, keep us posted!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Shawn on June 25, 2013, 05:39:24 PM
Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on June 25, 2013, 10:43:10 PM
Unfortunately, I have not had any orders filled lately.

I've been trying to buy some more Awilco Drilling.

I've also been trying to buy a mini-conglomerate that has major operations in building products.

I've also been trying to buy a small medical products company.

I've also tried to get an internet/real estate company.

Every company other than Awilco is a Nano-cap.

No luck yet, but perhaps later this week...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Aberhound on June 26, 2013, 09:30:19 AM
I tried to by IPL.UN in the first flash crash in Canada I have seen after it dropped by 1/3rd. it looks like a algo triggered a cascade of stop loss orders as the selling came from many dealers. the TSX halted trading 10 min after opening and when it reopened almost all the drop reversed.

it may no longer be safe to use stop loss orders in Canada. And it demonstrates why banks should not be able to both own the exchanges and conduct algo trading. So now if a computer makes a mistake stocks are halted. instead of protecting computers the regulators should let value investors repair the mistakes of others by providing price discovery.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on June 26, 2013, 09:33:23 AM
Quote
it may no longer be safe to use stop loss orders in Canada.
It is never safe to use stop loss orders anywhere .. As a smart trader / investor you should be happy with flash crashes because they are an opportunity to get filled at ridiculous prices. Unless you use stop loss orders, in which case you will join the fools and crazy algo's instead of profiting from them.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hielko on June 26, 2013, 10:04:56 AM
The idea of stop loss orders is imo ridiculous to begin with: why would you want to sell when something just became cheaper?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on June 26, 2013, 10:23:30 AM
It might be useful if you believe in some form of technical analysis / momentum trading (but in that case you should use a stop-limit instead of stop-loss order)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Olmsted on June 26, 2013, 01:25:27 PM
The idea of stop loss orders is imo ridiculous to begin with: why would you want to sell when something just became cheaper?

This assumes you know everything there is to know about the company.  While we strive to know as much as we can  - that's a strong assumption!  I can recall numerous instances where the stock price started marching steadily down before some bad news, then Boom!  - gap down 20%.  The hard part is discerning whether the "price action" is telling you that you don't know something, or whether the "price action" is wrong, and you should buy more.  I can certainly see the justification behind putting in at least a mental stop loss order as risk management.  Blithely buying more sometimes works, but information asymetry needs to be in your favor.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: John Hjorth on June 26, 2013, 03:09:08 PM
Averaging down in OAO Gazprom ADR [OGZPY] for the last 5 weeks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on June 26, 2013, 03:43:34 PM
Averaging down in OAO Gazprom ADR [OGZPY] for the last 5 weeks.

I know pretty much nothing about Gazprom, but I did watch this the other day.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=84MsRuC-1l8
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hielko on June 26, 2013, 04:16:07 PM
The idea of stop loss orders is imo ridiculous to begin with: why would you want to sell when something just became cheaper?

This assumes you know everything there is to know about the company.  While we strive to know as much as we can  - that's a strong assumption!  I can recall numerous instances where the stock price started marching steadily down before some bad news, then Boom!  - gap down 20%.  The hard part is discerning whether the "price action" is telling you that you don't know something, or whether the "price action" is wrong, and you should buy more.  I can certainly see the justification behind putting in at least a mental stop loss order as risk management.  Blithely buying more sometimes works, but information asymetry needs to be in your favor.
I'am not saying you need to buy more. Maybe the stock does deserve to trade lower: but selling something because it just went lower is the opposite option, and doesn't make a lot of sense from a fundamental investing perspective*. And risk management is imo also a poor excuse. If you have so much exposure that you need a stop loss you should reduce your exposure right now! Not when it's too late.

* As part of a momentum trading strategy I can see the rationale for stop loss orders.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Green King on June 26, 2013, 07:54:36 PM
Averaging down in OAO Gazprom ADR [OGZPY] for the last 5 weeks.

Can you tell us how you know the reserves are real?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: John Hjorth on June 27, 2013, 08:57:17 AM
Averaging down in OAO Gazprom ADR [OGZPY] for the last 5 weeks.

Can you tell us how you know the reserves are real?
No. From my point of view I haven't paid anything for my fraction of the value of the reserves because the discount on the OGZPY ADRs compared to BV/ADR exeeds my fraction of the BV of aquired/paid reserves [BV of Production Licenses/ADR].
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on June 27, 2013, 09:15:46 AM
I've bought a bit of Bidvest in the $44-$46 range in the last few days...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 09:14:15 AM
The idea of stop loss orders is imo ridiculous to begin with: why would you want to sell when something just became cheaper?

Visit the RIMM thread.

Intrinsic value is a moving target, like an ocean wave...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: texual on June 28, 2013, 10:11:36 AM
I have not purchased any stock besides Microsoft this past year and a half. If I had any desire to average UP, I would buy a lot more MSFT. However I really like the gains and feel like buying here isn't going to work in my favor!

MSFT was a good investment in the mid/high 20's and I look forward to the dividend increases. I treat it like BRK.B, its a money market account that just happens to kick ass :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 10:14:54 AM
I have not purchased any stock besides Microsoft this past year and a half. If I had any desire to average UP, I would buy a lot more MSFT. However I really like the gains and feel like buying here isn't going to work in my favor!

MSFT was a good investment in the mid/high 20's and I look forward to the dividend increases. I treat it like BRK.B, its a money market account that just happens to kick ass :)

Yep...I wish I had bought more, there is so much potential in this company that is being unlocked. Maybe Steve Ballmer can do a monkey dance and create a buying opportunity.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on June 28, 2013, 10:39:28 AM
The idea of stop loss orders is imo ridiculous to begin with: why would you want to sell when something just became cheaper?

Visit the RIMM thread.

Intrinsic value is a moving target, like an ocean wave...

What is your point? If RIMM opens 30% lower you want to sell your long-term investment automatically?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 10:42:43 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...also, what if you're simply wrong about your IV (sales projections revised, nobody likes BB10 etc)? Should you keep buying more? There is no feedback process...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 28, 2013, 11:44:07 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hielko on June 28, 2013, 12:34:14 PM
I'm going to disagree with both of you.

ERICOPOLY: If you throw a die in a completely dark room you don't know what side is up, but just one answer is right and someone with perfect knowledge about everything would be able to give you the right number. Investing in a company that is unpredictable can be similar: you don't know what the IV is, you see a possible range of outcomes, but just one of them is going to materialize.

But if you want to bet on what side is up on the die you can only treat it as a random number between one and six, and similarly for the company you should consider a full range of possible outcomes of IV. Now someone might feel one pip on one side of the die and shout it around in the dark room, and you can reduce the probability that number one (and six) are up and increase the probability for the other numbers. Did the IV of the die change? It still have the same side up, but the knowledge about the probabilities has changed. And for a company you might also discover that some possible outcomes should be removed from the probability distribution. The value of the bet has changed even though the (unknowable) true underlying value has stayed the same. It's not perception that is changing here, it's knowledge about the IV estimate.

Palantir: sure Rimm’s IV is likely dropping. But is it dropping faster than what the market price implies? Is it dropping slower than what the market price implies? I don’t know, and neither does someone who is using a stop loss order. But if you are long something you presumably think that the market is currently wrong about the value of the business, but then when it’s drops the market is suddenly right (or wrong in the other direction)? Doesn’t make sense.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 12:41:50 PM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.


But isn't the concept of intrinsic value a "perception"? It is always an estimate, not a quantifiable, or verifiable property like say mass.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 28, 2013, 12:53:24 PM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.


But isn't the concept of intrinsic value a "perception"? It is always an estimate, not a quantifiable, or verifiable property like say mass.

There is only one intrinsic value.  Time will reveal it to us.

We have only prediction to rely on divining it's value.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on June 28, 2013, 12:59:40 PM
"Anyone calculating intrinsic value necessarily comes up with a highly subjective figure. This figure will change both as estimates of future cash flows are revised and as interest rates move." - Buffett

Eric is right insofar as future cash flows, while having a huge range of possible outcomes, eventually materialize into 1 outcome. The IV change though comes when interest rates change.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 01:03:07 PM


There is only one intrinsic value.  Time will reveal it to us.

We have only prediction to rely on divining it's value.

But when? And how will we know when we are at intrinsic value, and that our intrinsic value estimate is the "true" intrinsic value?  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: locatevalue on June 28, 2013, 01:20:02 PM
Back to topic! Today, I bought some SHLD, OIBR and ALSK(thanks to Packer)..I see telecom is very cheap , though i dont like debt and high capex of these companies, Valuations are very compelling, Trying to compile a set of 5 telecom companies as a basket case of max 10% portoflio will make it larger if market dumps them more. So far couldn't find any great business at value prices like 2011 to make it big part. Still waiting !
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: John Hjorth on June 28, 2013, 01:46:18 PM
Off topic:
Ladies and Gentlemen [if there are any ladies posting in this topic within the last posts?],

The discussion contained in the last posts in this topic by writser, Palantir, ERICOPOLY, Heilko & Birdman23i is in my opinion certainly worth a separate topic in the General Discussion Forum of its own! I hereby suggest one of you to pick this discussion up buy starting a separate topic in the General Discussion Forum. Personally, I'm sure it will be reading of interest to many board members!

-Thanks in advance, because I hope you all pick this suggestion up!

[I have also been buying books about roses lately, btw...]

-And now back to topic again-again!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 28, 2013, 01:47:47 PM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400. Then they can do this game again and again and the book value will increase a lot consistently.

For other companies, if the stock price is distressed and it gets some liquidity issue and is forced to issue equity, the IV will drop a lot, depending on how dilutive it is.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 28, 2013, 02:02:09 PM
Gonna have to add Accenture (ACN) to my watchlist....please go down.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on June 28, 2013, 02:03:31 PM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: SharperDingaan on June 28, 2013, 02:17:27 PM
We bought in a modest BB position today, & it had zero to do with IV or valuation.

Frankly, BB is an investment POS. But we're confident that enough folks got burnt today, to be fairly sure there will be changes before the next quarterly earnings report. Hence, a minimum 10% appreciation between now & the next report seems pretty modest; which is a 40+% annualized compound return. Rain or shine we will be flat by the next report; & if we get to average down, so be it.

Sometimes its just nothing more than plain vanilla supply & demand.

SD




 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on June 28, 2013, 02:30:09 PM
Bought some MDLZ today on weakness over last week or so. Anyone else buying this or has done some research?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on June 28, 2013, 03:49:43 PM
Quote
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples.

I'm not so sure about that.  During the dotcom bubble, they raise capital through debt when they could have sold stock.

Right not Amazon is buying back some shares.  Their share count went up a little over the past 10 years, but it hasn't really increased its IV by issuing lots and lots of stock.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jay21 on June 28, 2013, 05:10:42 PM
Bought some MDLZ today on weakness over last week or so. Anyone else buying this or has done some research?

Here's the thread:

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/mdlz-mondelez/msg112645/#msg112645
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on June 28, 2013, 07:15:08 PM
Thanks Jay. Appreciate it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 29, 2013, 08:30:11 AM


There is only one intrinsic value.  Time will reveal it to us.

We have only prediction to rely on divining it's value.

But when? And how will we know when we are at intrinsic value, and that our intrinsic value estimate is the "true" intrinsic value?  :)

Berkshire's intrinsic value may very well be zero.  You don't know.  You have only prediction to rely on, and thus you will have better luck restricting your forecasting efforts to the relatively more predictable businesses.

Again, nothing brilliant in pointing out that "prediction" and "predictability" are related.  However, still some disagree!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 29, 2013, 10:29:50 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.

Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on June 29, 2013, 11:07:50 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.

Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?

Oh yes of course. But that is assuming they actually do something valuable (even if overpaying) with the cash they get from issueing new shares. I assumed your hypothesis stopped after they issued shares. So they just hoard cash or use it for internal capex.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: indirect on June 29, 2013, 12:31:49 PM
AOL actually did just that in dot com bubble by merging with Time Warner. However it was still overvalued.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 29, 2013, 03:37:57 PM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.

Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?

Oh yes of course. But that is assuming they actually do something valuable (even if overpaying) with the cash they get from issueing new shares. I assumed your hypothesis stopped after they issued shares. So they just hoard cash or use it for internal capex.

Take a look at CRM for example. They keep acquiring smaller companies, and each quarter, Benioff brags about another "Incredible", or "Monster" quarter because of the revenue growth.
Normally this kind of companies won't just issue shares and hold the cash. They would issue shares to acquire smaller companies.
My hypothesis does not stop because this is a continuous process. After they issue shares and acquire smaller companies, their revenue grows and their share prices goes up. Then they can do this same thing again and again.
Eventually the boom will turn into bust because they can no longer find such smaller companies to buy to justify the growth, or because the smaller companies trade at higher multiples as well, or some crisis happens and their share price tanks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 30, 2013, 09:32:11 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.

Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?

The future is the future.  On a rolling basis, it is revealed.  Intrinsic value didn't change, you merely witnessed managerial actions that were part of a past future, and this were always reflected in IV. You merely updated you estimate based on revealed information.

To more accurately estimate IV, you need to listen to Buffett's list of what he looks for in an investment with low hurdle.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 30, 2013, 09:42:58 AM
Eric, are you arguing that if a business is trading at 100x IV, it doesn't change the future IV if it acquires another business trading at 0.5x IV, or 10x IV?

The other question I have is why did you just buy ITM LEAP for SD? I remember not a long time ago you mentioned that you did not understand drilling a hole into the ground, so you would not touch companies like SD?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on June 30, 2013, 10:13:23 AM
Rimm's "intrinsic value" is likely dropping....why would you buy more? People seem to assume that IV is fixed and certain while price is variable....but IV seems to be pretty variable when it comes to these tech stocks...

I disagree.  IV doesn't change.  Your perception of IV changes along the turbulent path of discovery.  You keep trying to predict the unpredictable, and blame it on the IV of the business rapidly changing.  No.

To get the IV prediction accurate with a higher batting average, and thus fewer investment mistakes, stick to businesses that are more predictable.  (that's a "Duh" comment).

I guess that by definition of the term "predictable business", you then realize that your IV number is a "prediction of the business"... well, more of the obvious.

I would say IV changes in some cases and doesn't in other cases.
For example, due to the fact that AMZN is trading at extremely inflated multiples for prolonged time, it is able to issue a small amount of equity to do a lot of things. The IV increase whenever it issues the equity at such extremely inflated multiples. You can run some simple math. Suppose AMZN's book value is $10 per share, and it issues equity at $200 per share and doubles the share count, what is the book value now? It is $105 per share! Who can create value faster than this? Buffet clearly cannot! ;) Then if the market thinks OMG, AMZN is much cheaper now than before, buy a ton! Then the stock price will jump to maybe $400.


Those kind of companies' IV has little to do with BV and thus the effect on IV is much smaller. It's substantial but I don't see how they could exploit this forever. Do you have examples of extreme cases that were able to double share price a few times? I doubt they are out there and if they are it simply won't be for the capital injection but market perception of the company / simple momentum.



OT: Bought some ITM SD leaps.

Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?

The future is the future.  On a rolling basis, it is revealed.  Intrinsic value didn't change, you merely witnessed managerial actions that were part of a past future, and this were always reflected in IV. You merely updated you estimate based on revealed information.

To more accurately estimate IV, you need to listen to Buffett's list of what he looks for in an investment with low hurdle.

I think the future is more probabilistic than that. If you could restart today 100 times and let the future unfold, I think you would get 100 different futures and hence 100 different "IVs." Probably some very drastically different IVs. At any initial set of conditions, the best you can do is your best guess at the most probabilistic IV.

For instance, in 20 years the probability of BRK's IV being > $1 trillion might be 90%, but the probability that BRK is bankrupt might be 0.00001%. (I made up these numbers as I was typing.) So either might unfold, but I know where I am placing my bet.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on June 30, 2013, 10:19:44 AM
Eric, are you arguing that if a business is trading at 100x IV, it doesn't change the future IV if it acquires another business trading at 0.5x IV, or 10x IV?

The other question I have is why did you just buy ITM LEAP for SD? I remember not a long time ago you mentioned that you did not understand drilling a hole into the ground, so you would not touch companies like SD?

Now, I know you have powers of seeing the future with your $9 forecast on MBI, so now I worry that you are confusing a vision taken from one of these spirit talks with events already passed.  This worries me a little given that I truly know nothing about SD.  In truth, to date I have not purchased any calls on SD.

Back to the "argument" of mine, I continue to stand by the definition of "future", and that all present actions of management are incorporated in a past future.

I grew up on the words of the great philosopher Yoda, who effectively said "difficult to see is the future, always changing it is".  Buffett talks about one foot hurdles -- he knows we can only make an estimate of IV, thus one needs to be WISE about what to throw in the Too Hard pile.  Too hard to make a reasonably accurate prediction!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on June 30, 2013, 10:26:06 AM
Is CRM not a good example? They are making reckless acquisitions, so eventually they will go really bad.
But assume they can issue shares at such extreme multiples and have our champ ERICOPOLY on the board to manage all the acquisitions, won't you agree that over the past few years, their IV would be growing?
My point is, when these kinds of ridiculous companies trade at 100x IV, and they issue shares to acquire companies trading at 0.5x IV, doesn't this increase their own IV significantly?

Realistically I think CRM is more like 5x IV, and their acquisitions are more like 2-3x IV. Not as much value creation, and the differential could dry up quickly.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 30, 2013, 10:57:35 AM
Eric, are you arguing that if a business is trading at 100x IV, it doesn't change the future IV if it acquires another business trading at 0.5x IV, or 10x IV?

The other question I have is why did you just buy ITM LEAP for SD? I remember not a long time ago you mentioned that you did not understand drilling a hole into the ground, so you would not touch companies like SD?

Now, I know you have powers of seeing the future with your $9 forecast on MBI, so now I worry that you are confusing a vision taken from one of these spirit talks with events already passed.  This worries me a little given that I truly know nothing about SD.  In truth, to date I have not purchased any calls on SD.

Back to the "argument" of mine, I continue to stand by the definition of "future", and that all present actions of management are incorporated in a past future.

I grew up on the words of the great philosopher Yoda, who effectively said "difficult to see is the future, always changing it is".  Buffett talks about one foot hurdles -- he knows we can only make an estimate of IV, thus one needs to be WISE about what to throw in the Too Hard pile.  Too hard to make a reasonably accurate prediction!

Oh, my apologies! I thought you bought some SD leaps, but after I flip back to the previous two pages, I found it was tombgrt who bought the leaps. :P

Yeah, I do have a $9 forecase for MBI. But given that I sold my MBI around $10 one week right before the settlement, I kicked myself really hard about that, so this time the forecast could be wrong again. :P
If you view the IV in this way, I think I kind of agree with you then. This means companies like AMZN and CRM will fall into the too hard pile, because it is very unlikely to figure out what kinds of acquisitions they will make, at what price, and what will their stock's multiple be at that time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on June 30, 2013, 11:02:43 AM
AOL actually did just that in dot com bubble by merging with Time Warner. However it was still overvalued.

I am not using my explanation to justify purchase of AMZN or CRM. I am just trying to explain what is actually happening with these pumpers, and why their overvalued price may continue to be overvalued for a few more years.
On the other hand, if we can find a fairly valued or even undervalued company that may kick off this kinds of boom/bust cycle, then it will be a great time to buy. If this cycle does not get kicked off, we lose no money. If it does get kicked off, we may make a lot of money. I have a 7% position in NOV, and I am investigating more to see if NOV fits this boom/bust cycle.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on July 04, 2013, 05:12:48 PM
In the last couple of weeks we've been buying more cash and more index puts.  Not much upside if the market goes up. but our portfolio could actually increase in value if the market takes a dive because of the quality of our main holdings.  :)

We threw in the towel yesterday and closed out most of our hedges at a relatively small loss because we obtained what we think is additional informed prior information to add to our Bayesian analysis to assess probabilities about where the market is headed in the future.  The answer is : we don't know.  There  is  substantial upside based on one body of prior outcomes and  substantial downside based on another body of prior outcomes.  In the meantime, it's quite possible that the market could tread water for a while.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on July 04, 2013, 10:24:59 PM
What sort of inputs go into your Bayesian analysis?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on July 05, 2013, 01:32:49 AM
What sort of inputs go into your Bayesian analysis?

One body of prior evidence is what typically happens at the end of a super credit cycle,  Reinhart and Rogoff , Richard Koo stuff.  The other body of evidence is what happens specifically in the US as the Fed starts to turn off the taps after a long period of easing when interest rates were  absolutely or relatively low, for example in the mid 1950's or in the mid 1990's.  In those cases, there was a rotation out of low yielding bonds as bond holders started to experience mark to market losses when interest rates began to rise.  Before long, some of  those funds found their way to a different asset class with a much  higher earnings yield that wasn't in a downtrend. Eventually, that led to bubbles, but in the meantime, the stock market doubled or tripled.  :)

Time will tell which storyline comes true.  Meanwhile, I think we will tone down speculating on the market direction in the absence of important, new information and hold stocks in great businesses that are attractively priced or otherwise hold cash.  Boring, Warren Buffett style investing.  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on July 05, 2013, 04:46:18 PM
Anyone starting to sniff around the (copper) miners?  I'm in no rush but am starting to gently tap the tires on RIO and SCCO.  Can't touch FCX anymore because I believe CEO used it as his personal piggy bank to bail out distressed E&P co's..
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on July 05, 2013, 05:07:42 PM
I got in to Taseko mines.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: xxx1313 on July 06, 2013, 10:42:52 AM
I bought some shares of Nevsun Resources and Mawson West. Both low-cost producers, but with high political risk (Africa). Never saw stocks so cheap before on an EV/CF or EV/FCF basis!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ericd1 on July 06, 2013, 07:35:52 PM
Anyone looking at coal mining?   KOL eft nearing 2009 lows.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on July 08, 2013, 08:43:40 AM
Do you guys try to diversify between sectors? I find good opportunities in tech (ORCL), but I'm already like 40% in technology....
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: greenwave on July 08, 2013, 09:24:34 AM
Anyone looking at coal mining?   KOL eft nearing 2009 lows.

----------
Eric -
What are your thoughts on WLT ?

 As I understand it ,...they were hit hard by the market after reconsidering  & canceling their plans to refinance some of their near term debt ,... as they got caught up in the recent ramp up in their proposed bond offerings interest rates . (and of course Obama's new plans to "OVER-REGULATE" all coal powered energy plants  in the future ).

Just previous to that , there was very significant insider buying at ~$17 to $ 18  or so .

greenwave
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Dazel on July 08, 2013, 10:23:52 AM


Altius and Pico Holdings....


Dazel
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: mikazo on July 08, 2013, 11:29:15 AM
Do you guys try to diversify between sectors? I find good opportunities in tech (ORCL), but I'm already like 40% in technology....

All my holdings are tech and most of my watchlist is tech. I'm sticking with what I know  :P
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: SharperDingaan on July 08, 2013, 01:17:07 PM
NBG - just 'cause we like the whiff of tear gas -  & have hedge proceeds that we need to deploy. There is still some room to run, but it is event driven - not a buy and hold.   

Re disclosure. We added a significant weighting at < $3.00, so today was a very good day  ;)
http://www.independent.ie/business/world/greece-given-68bn-lifeline-but-warned-to-push-through-controversial-reforms-29404259.html

SD
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ericd1 on July 08, 2013, 06:06:15 PM
Green - no I'm not following Walter, but I took a quick look and it merits some further study. They passed up on refinancing some debt and the stock took a hit. I've been seeing more optimistic reports on coal use including power generation and steel production, but definitely early in the turn. However that's also the time to find some opportunities. Time to start kicking the tires.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on August 27, 2013, 12:02:26 PM
Time for a bump. There is state sponsored genocide in the ME, western retaliation, India's currency is sinking. May there be many buying opportunities ahead.

My watchlist:
If REED drops a lot, I will buy more.
Studying a position in PHI. Looks cheap
Ditto for ORCL
Adding more to AAPL if it drops below 450
Adding more to RHT if it drops below 46
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wisdom on August 27, 2013, 01:02:47 PM
german elections will be done soon - so Europe could again get interesting. debt ceiling coming up. Potential tapering.

Things could get interesting once again. list I might add from -
COWN
DVA
DJCO
CHEUY
LUK
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: hellsten on August 27, 2013, 01:17:13 PM
I'm buying cash on Monday…
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 27, 2013, 03:23:48 PM
I hope DJCO drops more. I hesitated and didn't buy when it was sub-100. Then it went on a tear.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on August 27, 2013, 03:28:22 PM
Raytheon....just kidding...kinda'.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on August 27, 2013, 05:42:42 PM
I've bought shares of LUK, DTV and MIL in the past week and will probably buy more of those in the next week.

COBAF has almost persuaded me to buy FTP.TO. It would be my first idea sourced from here.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on August 27, 2013, 07:47:42 PM
FTP.TO, MS and BAC-WT.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on August 27, 2013, 08:32:26 PM
I added too PETM this week, keeping my eye on DFS.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on September 11, 2013, 07:26:04 PM
I bought a little more MBI today.  It is back to levels not seen since the settlement with BAC.  Upside seems substantial and it seems a considerably better bargain than most else out there.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valuecfa on September 11, 2013, 07:30:59 PM
I bought a little more MBI today.  It is back to levels not seen since the settlement with BAC.  Upside seems substantial and it seems a considerably better bargain than most else out there.

I started following it again too, but haven't invested back in the company yet. The difference now vs then in my mind is Brown's lack of financial incentive to rebuild the company compared to what his previous incentives were...but yes it is cheap on a fundamental basis.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawk4value on September 12, 2013, 10:22:45 AM
Constructive, I have been a long time holder of MIL (MFC Industrial).  Can you expound on your particular reasons for holding it. I am using it as an inflation hedge, a distressed buyer of commodities, and as a book value investment. It seems this will play out but will take a while.

Thanks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: willie2013 on September 12, 2013, 10:32:34 AM
Fast Retailing FRCOY and Builder's First Source BLDR
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on September 12, 2013, 02:31:36 PM
Constructive, I have been a long time holder of MIL (MFC Industrial).  Can you expound on your particular reasons for holding it. I am using it as an inflation hedge, a distressed buyer of commodities, and as a book value investment. It seems this will play out but will take a while.

Thanks.

I like it because it has a conservative, cash-heavy balance sheet, combined with a solid earnings platform. I think the balance sheet supports an asymmetric risk-return probability. Which I think is particularly important when considering the current valuation of the market.

I own GLW and TPCA, and may buy FTP.TO soon, because they are similarly cash heavy. But most of my portfolio is earnings driven rather than balance sheet driven.

Michael Smith's presentations and conference calls are also persuasive about the plan to increase ROE.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Fairfaxnut on September 12, 2013, 02:51:39 PM
Glacier Media (GVC) on the TSX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: hellsten on September 12, 2013, 10:59:36 PM
Glacier Media (GVC) on the TSX.

Market cap ~$100 million. FCF/year ~$20-30 million since 2006 while revenue has almost doubled.

McElvaine sold -33.33% recently. Any reason why, he's been a shareholder for ever?

Madison Venture Corporation is also selling.

Montrusco Bolton Investments Inc.   and Franklin Templeton buying…

Chou Associates still own GVC.

Maybe I should have a closer look at GVC?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on September 13, 2013, 03:57:11 AM
Recent purchases in the last month:

DSL - Doubleline income solutions fund
NLY - Annaly
BSBR - Banco Santeder Brazil
SAN - Banco Santander
LCSHF - Lancashire
SHLD - Sears holding
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on September 13, 2013, 05:23:41 AM
GLUX - Great Lakes Aviation

VIC and OTC adventures were the sources of the idea.

http://otcadventures.com/?p=495
http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/97245

38MM of tangible equity, comprised of relatively liquid assets (current assets and planes) against a 10.5MM market cap.

Priced for bankruptcy and maybe that happens. I just see it as a never expiring option that pays 3-4:1  in the event they start making money again, pay down their somewhat usurious financing and the EAS program doesn't get axed.

Only a 2% position because of the risks but I like the risk/reward.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on September 19, 2013, 10:59:08 AM
Recent purchases in the last month:

DSL - Doubleline income solutions fund
NLY - Annaly
BSBR - Banco Santeder Brazil
SAN - Banco Santander
LCSHF - Lancashire
SHLD - Sears holding


Nicely done, sir.  I picked up a little DSL myself a few days ago in a tax advantaged account. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on September 19, 2013, 11:07:11 AM
Nibbled at JPM and GM and added to AEG.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on September 23, 2013, 06:47:49 PM
Bought VRX today, 7% position.  My timing is no doubt horrible on this one, with it being up double over past year and 10-fold since 09.  Nevertheless, the more I read on the company the more I feel like I'm reading a case study from "the outsiders".  Their execution has been just incredible and in spite of the huge runup in price, they are still cheap based on next years forecasted earnings.

EDIT: I should also add, thanks to Gio for all the posts on this one.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on September 23, 2013, 06:59:52 PM
I've bought a few shares of FRAN and more VRA. VRA has a huge short position - there could easily be a squeeze.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on September 24, 2013, 08:33:53 AM
Bought VRX today, 7% position.  My timing is no doubt horrible on this one, with it being up double over past year and 10-fold since 09.  Nevertheless, the more I read on the company the more I feel like I'm reading a case study from "the outsiders".  Their execution has been just incredible and in spite of the huge runup in price, they are still cheap based on next years forecasted earnings.

EDIT: I should also add, thanks to Gio for all the posts on this one.

I looked at VRX when gio suggested it earlier this year at the $70's. I could not understand it, so I didn't invest. What is your thesis on that?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Philip Morris IV on September 24, 2013, 01:09:45 PM
Holy crap - VRA float is 88% sold short?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on September 24, 2013, 02:27:11 PM
Holy crap - VRA float is 88% sold short?

Yes - the bearish thesis is that inventory is stale and needs to be marked way down. And also that the brand is faddish, without the staying power of Coach, Michael Kors, etc.

There is some truth to their problems, but with this valuation and level of short interest the risk-reward appears skewed. Personally I like their style and think it could be a very good company if they get inventory under control.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on September 24, 2013, 03:25:59 PM
Bought VRX today, 7% position.  My timing is no doubt horrible on this one, with it being up double over past year and 10-fold since 09.  Nevertheless, the more I read on the company the more I feel like I'm reading a case study from "the outsiders".  Their execution has been just incredible and in spite of the huge runup in price, they are still cheap based on next years forecasted earnings.

EDIT: I should also add, thanks to Gio for all the posts on this one.

I looked at VRX when gio suggested it earlier this year at the $70's. I could not understand it, so I didn't invest. What is your thesis on that?

+1

Really curious to get your thesis and estimate of IV. I find it really hard to figure out how much it is reasonable to pay up for good businesses...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on September 24, 2013, 04:27:17 PM
If you're holding a heavily shorted stock, do you get interest payments if loaned out?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on September 24, 2013, 04:44:58 PM
If you're holding a heavily shorted stock, do you get interest payments if loaned out?

Depends on your broker.

IB splits the lending proceeds with you 50/50, which is much better than other retail brokers.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=shortableStocks&p=stockyield
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on September 24, 2013, 07:00:40 PM
Quote
I looked at VRX when gio suggested it earlier this year at the $70's. I could not understand it, so I didn't invest. What is your thesis on that?

Sure, but keep in mind that I just invest as a hobby.

Basically it is a story stock.  You have a CEO who is very aggressive and yet very disciplined from a capital allocation perspective.  When he first came in he got rid of all businesses where he did not see a competitive advantage or room to build scale.  He started acquiring companies and lopping operational expenses down aggressively.  He merged with biovail (while maintaining his role as CEO) and as a result now has a 5% tax rate.  With the Bausch & Lomb transaction he bought a company with $700M EBITDA and has plans to "bump" that up to $1.5B with cost-cutting over the next year and a half.  There is also decentralized operations, a focus on avoiding competitive areas, geographical diversity, focus on businesses not subject to government regulations (e.g. the bausch purchase), non-traditional accounting (you need to focus on cash EPS), willingness to walk from deals (they walked from a huge one earlier this year), his compensation agreement, more that I just can't think of right now. 

If you read the outsiders and then start to study this company, it's like you're reading another chapter in the book.  The CEO is not that old either, there could be quite a future ahead.

As for the pesky details of what you are paying, I go out on a limb and trust the cash eps forecasts that management puts out.  You guys are probably trying to figure it out from the traditional statements and I commend you, but I didn't do that.  With their cash EPS they add back amortizations, stock-expenses and one-time costs.  It is a similar concept to owner earnings but probably a bit more aggressive than buffet would like.

Anyways, they are forecasting ~$2.05 for Q4 of this year.  However, the cost-cutting for bausch and lomb, plus other acquisitions will not be done by q4 of this year.  I crudely estimated that with their total announced cost-cuts they will probably be looking at $2.3-$2.4 per quarter by Q4 of next year, that will be their rough run-rate.  So around $9.5 per share cash earnings run rate in 15 months.  So you are getting them for around 11x cash earnings once the cost-cuts are in effect.  That is assuming that they stand still for 2014 and just cost-cut/pay down debt.  I doubt they will do that.  There will be more acquisitions / stock repurchases / a merger but something else will happen.

IV is a tough one.  I think it's more than you are paying now but probably not that much.  Some of the other major pharma companies are around 13-14 times earnings.  I think valeant deserves a bit more, maybe 14x.  I actually think my 14 multiplier is probably too low, should be more like 16-18 given what he has done and the businesses he is in but you also have to consider how lean they run R&D and that their are concerns about organic growth.  For that reason I pull it back to 14 as they will always need acquisitions.  So if they get to $9.5 that is only $133 and that's not for 15 months or so.  So I am buying a dollar a year from now for $.75.  Not a great bargain but not overly expensive either.  My view is that in a year they will be talking about 2015 earnings at $11-12 and the stock could be at $150. 

You really need to get comfortable with the CEO to buy into it.  It's not a huge bargain unless you believe he can continue to work his magic.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on September 25, 2013, 07:50:49 AM
Quote
I looked at VRX when gio suggested it earlier this year at the $70's. I could not understand it, so I didn't invest. What is your thesis on that?

Sure, but keep in mind that I just invest as a hobby.

Basically it is a story stock.  You have a CEO who is very aggressive and yet very disciplined from a capital allocation perspective.  When he first came in he got rid of all businesses where he did not see a competitive advantage or room to build scale.  He started acquiring companies and lopping operational expenses down aggressively.  He merged with biovail (while maintaining his role as CEO) and as a result now has a 5% tax rate.  With the Bausch & Lomb transaction he bought a company with $700M EBITDA and has plans to "bump" that up to $1.5B with cost-cutting over the next year and a half.  There is also decentralized operations, a focus on avoiding competitive areas, geographical diversity, focus on businesses not subject to government regulations (e.g. the bausch purchase), non-traditional accounting (you need to focus on cash EPS), willingness to walk from deals (they walked from a huge one earlier this year), his compensation agreement, more that I just can't think of right now. 

If you read the outsiders and then start to study this company, it's like you're reading another chapter in the book.  The CEO is not that old either, there could be quite a future ahead.

As for the pesky details of what you are paying, I go out on a limb and trust the cash eps forecasts that management puts out.  You guys are probably trying to figure it out from the traditional statements and I commend you, but I didn't do that.  With their cash EPS they add back amortizations, stock-expenses and one-time costs.  It is a similar concept to owner earnings but probably a bit more aggressive than buffet would like.

Anyways, they are forecasting ~$2.05 for Q4 of this year.  However, the cost-cutting for bausch and lomb, plus other acquisitions will not be done by q4 of this year.  I crudely estimated that with their total announced cost-cuts they will probably be looking at $2.3-$2.4 per quarter by Q4 of next year, that will be their rough run-rate.  So around $9.5 per share cash earnings run rate in 15 months.  So you are getting them for around 11x cash earnings once the cost-cuts are in effect.  That is assuming that they stand still for 2014 and just cost-cut/pay down debt.  I doubt they will do that.  There will be more acquisitions / stock repurchases / a merger but something else will happen.

IV is a tough one.  I think it's more than you are paying now but probably not that much.  Some of the other major pharma companies are around 13-14 times earnings.  I think valeant deserves a bit more, maybe 14x.  I actually think my 14 multiplier is probably too low, should be more like 16-18 given what he has done and the businesses he is in but you also have to consider how lean they run R&D and that their are concerns about organic growth.  For that reason I pull it back to 14 as they will always need acquisitions.  So if they get to $9.5 that is only $133 and that's not for 15 months or so.  So I am buying a dollar a year from now for $.75.  Not a great bargain but not overly expensive either.  My view is that in a year they will be talking about 2015 earnings at $11-12 and the stock could be at $150. 

You really need to get comfortable with the CEO to buy into it.  It's not a huge bargain unless you believe he can continue to work his magic.

Thanks a lot! I will have to look into it more to get comfortable. I wish I had bought at the $70's. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on September 25, 2013, 08:06:30 AM
If you're holding a heavily shorted stock, do you get interest payments if loaned out?

Depends on your broker.

IB splits the lending proceeds with you 50/50, which is much better than other retail brokers.
https://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/index.php?f=shortableStocks&p=stockyield

I have used this for a couple of years now and it's great. I don't trade a lot and the amount made with this far exceeds the minimum trading fee IB charges.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 30, 2013, 07:03:11 AM
Anyone adding to their positions today?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on September 30, 2013, 07:28:06 AM
Adding a little to MKC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Uccmal on September 30, 2013, 07:39:44 AM
About 5% to my AIG leaps.  This selloff it turning into a disappointment. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on September 30, 2013, 07:44:38 AM
Might dip into Red Hat.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on September 30, 2013, 09:21:42 AM
I was hoping for a bigger drop too. Maybe huge sell-off tomorrow if nothing gets done tonight.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on September 30, 2013, 03:48:19 PM
Might dip into Red Hat.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 01, 2013, 07:07:21 AM
Might dip into Red Hat.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.

I disagree. A 5% FCF Yield + historical growth rate of 15-20% gives me a pretty high expected return of 20-25%. Even if growth is cut in more than half to 7%, it gives an expected return of 12%, which is still good.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on October 01, 2013, 07:14:41 AM
Might dip into Red Hat.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.

I disagree. A 5% FCF Yield + historical growth rate of 15-20% gives me a pretty high expected return of 20-25%. Even if growth is cut in more than half to 7%, it gives an expected return of 12%, which is still good.

Okay you're expecting continued growth in such high percentages. I usually don't do that . Thanks for the feedback though :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 01, 2013, 07:19:25 AM
^ Not quite, even if growth slows, I still feel that return can be high.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wellmont on October 01, 2013, 07:25:55 AM
Might dip into Red Hat.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.

you are correct sir. it hasn't looked very cheap in years. it's a growth stock and if growth ever slows there is lots of room to fall. it's trading at 3.3% earnings yield based on average of next fiscal year estimates.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 01, 2013, 07:36:23 AM
Might dip into Red Hat.

On first viewing Red Hat really doesn't look cheap.

you are correct sir. it hasn't looked very cheap in years. it's a growth stock and if it growth ever slows there is lots of room to fall. it's trading at 3.3% earnings yield based on average of next fiscal year estimates.

Why would you ever use earnings yield to value Red Hat? Please familiarize yourself with the company.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on October 01, 2013, 07:54:14 AM
bought more BP and ZINC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 01, 2013, 08:07:32 AM
I guess I have to wait for the debt ceiling debate for a bigger pull-back.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on October 01, 2013, 10:03:34 AM
I expect it would have to stay closed for at least a week or two to make an impact. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Uccmal on October 02, 2013, 06:13:47 AM
I am really wishing the 2016 Leaps for Aig and Bac were out right now.  Things are looking more buyable, but I dont like the tight time frames to January 2015 so much.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: enoch01 on October 02, 2013, 06:24:57 AM
I bought some BP yesterday.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on October 02, 2013, 07:24:03 AM
I believe for AIG and BAC, the 2016 leaps come out Oct. 14, 2013. 

You could get the 2015 and roll to the 2017 by the time 2015 come close to expiration....
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on October 02, 2013, 07:25:22 AM
I just keep buying BP as well.

Starting to buy PSX- Phillips 66. ( See Meryl Witner's comments)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orion on October 02, 2013, 07:43:29 AM
Added some KO and some URB.A
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on October 02, 2013, 08:06:44 AM
I bought some BP yesterday.

I looked at BP before but can't understand it. It doesn't seem to be that cheap. Maybe without the GOM saga, it can trade at $50, but that's it?
Regarding the dividend, since I am in the US, I have to pay double tax for the dividend, which make it not so attractive. IRS does not allow deduction from foreign oil companies.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: siddharth18 on October 02, 2013, 08:11:15 AM
Loading up on NFLX, TSLA, YELP, FB, P, ANGI.


















Just kidding. Been adding EBIX, AWLCF, TSE:AM.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 02, 2013, 08:22:49 AM
Loading up on NFLX, TSLA, YELP, FB, P, ANGI.


















Just kidding. Been adding EBIX, AWLCF, TSE:AM.


lol, got me... In my my mind, I was like how are those value names...did we suddenly switch to being a growth forum. hahaha  ;D

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: scorpioncapital on October 02, 2013, 08:31:43 AM
fbrc, cheap, just bought back 650,000 shares.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on October 08, 2013, 11:25:45 AM
Is anyone adding to their portfolio?  BAC and AIG options are looking mighty tempting...  :)

Tks,
S
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 08, 2013, 11:32:02 AM
IBM and USB.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 08, 2013, 11:34:45 AM
Bought more BAC common. can't do options/other cool stuff due work restrictions :'(
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on October 08, 2013, 11:35:27 AM
BP & PSX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 08, 2013, 11:52:47 AM
IBM

What's your IV estimate for IBM? I've looked at it many times, it just doesn't strike me as a "great" opportunity...but just an decent, low risk place to put cash.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 08, 2013, 12:03:45 PM
Re IBM, it's the "free cash flow per share" that appeals to me. And continuous stock buybacks. Political mess has created a good buying opportunity in a great company, imo.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on October 08, 2013, 12:04:50 PM
More VRA and MIL.

It's been a tough year on the short side, but short positions are working today and may be turning the corner.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 08, 2013, 12:10:27 PM
Re IBM, it's the "free cash flow per share" that appeals to me. And continuous stock buybacks. Political mess has created a good buying opportunity in a great company, imo.

That's pretty fair....but I'm going to be greedy and wait for sub 170 before I buy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on October 08, 2013, 12:11:11 PM
It's been a tough year on the short side, but short positions are working today and may be turning the corner.

Amen to that. CRM finally turning, will re-investigate shorts of WDAY, LL, and FOSL.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Yours Truly on October 08, 2013, 12:25:03 PM
It's been a tough year on the short side, but short positions are working today and may be turning the corner.

Amen to that. CRM finally turning, will re-investigate shorts of WDAY, LL, and FOSL.

Whats the short thesis on FOSL? Was looking at going long back when it was in the $90's a year ago but forgot about it
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Philip Morris IV on October 08, 2013, 12:26:59 PM
At the moment IBM is at 52wk low (actually 90wk low) and roughly 7% FCF yield.  Passes the great biz/fair price test.  Picked some up for clients today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on October 08, 2013, 12:34:18 PM
I have been writing BAC and PSX puts.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ScottHall on October 08, 2013, 01:05:47 PM
Re IBM, it's the "free cash flow per share" that appeals to me. And continuous stock buybacks. Political mess has created a good buying opportunity in a great company, imo.

That's pretty fair....but I'm going to be greedy and wait for sub 170 before I buy.

It'd be great if it was just 10% cheaper.  ;)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on October 08, 2013, 01:09:57 PM
Anyone looking in to Orkla ASA have been looking in to this name and some good fund manger owns it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Qu1nt3ss0n on October 09, 2013, 03:25:16 PM
Anyone looking in to Orkla ASA have been looking in to this name and some good fund manger owns it.

Yep, came across this name when going through some old VII newsletters. Steve Romick (FPA) also discusses this in a forbes interview:

www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/04/23/steve-romick-trade-into-the-gold-you-can-eat-farmland/4/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/04/23/steve-romick-trade-into-the-gold-you-can-eat-farmland/4/)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 09, 2013, 03:42:02 PM
Anyone looking in to Orkla ASA have been looking in to this name and some good fund manger owns it.

Yep, came across this name when going through some old VII newsletters. Steve Romick (FPA) also discusses this in a forbes interview:

www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/04/23/steve-romick-trade-into-the-gold-you-can-eat-farmland/4/ (http://www.forbes.com/sites/steveforbes/2013/04/23/steve-romick-trade-into-the-gold-you-can-eat-farmland/4/)


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Qu1nt3ss0n on October 10, 2013, 01:59:38 AM
BP and Safe Bulkers
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 10, 2013, 11:09:32 AM
Opening a position in SPAR Group (SGRP).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on November 04, 2013, 06:01:06 PM
10% in SPE today.

Thanks to whopper investments for this one.

http://www.whopperinvestments.com/incentives-edges-and-closed-end-funds


The basic thesis is that the manager should be able to exceed the S&P full-cycle while providing downside protection. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: willie2013 on November 05, 2013, 08:58:00 AM
FIATY, ELOS, and FRCOY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ECCO on November 05, 2013, 09:32:06 AM
Today, I have short some 2015 AIG 55$ put and with that money I have bought 2015 AIG 45$ call. I did the same with BAC, 2015 15$ put and bought 2015 12$ call.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on November 05, 2013, 10:05:15 AM
I am buying Mawson West.

I think they will have good numbers coming up.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Myth465 on November 05, 2013, 03:26:19 PM
I am buying Mawson West.

I think they will have good numbers coming up.

As am I, someone reads VIC....
Just saw it yesterday and now moving cash around to buy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on November 05, 2013, 05:14:45 PM
PEFIX, SPE
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on November 05, 2013, 05:21:47 PM
PDRX, more FBRC, and writing ITM AIG 2016 LEAPS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on November 05, 2013, 05:31:57 PM
Quote
writing ITM AIG 2016 LEAPS

If you don't mind me asking, what is the thesis on writing ITM AIG leaps?  Calls or puts?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 05, 2013, 06:20:50 PM
In the past month I have:

Bought FFH, Lukoil and Gazprom.

Sold puts on WLT and bought them back.

Sold covered calls on RAI.

Sold KKR, VOD and VZ.

Sold puts on RVBD, BAC and AIG.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on November 05, 2013, 07:49:16 PM

If you don't mind me asking, what is the thesis on writing ITM AIG leaps?  Calls or puts?


Puts, at $50. I don't mind being assigned shares. $8.60ish was the credit, so getting assigned shares at $41.40 isn't too bad a deal. I wouldn't risk losing upside on the stock by doing covered calls at this level, maybe when its margin of safety is smaller. Already own AIG shares from a lower price point, I'm just not willing to buy more shares right here, thus the put writing.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on November 05, 2013, 08:52:22 PM
BP and Safe Bulkers

I bought SB way back in 2010. Let's hope it moves a little quicker for you then it did for me. Recent returns haven't been so bad though since doubling down near the bottom.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on November 05, 2013, 10:07:04 PM
I am buying Mawson West.

I think they will have good numbers coming up.

As am I, someone reads VIC....
Just saw it yesterday and now moving cash around to buy.

Yes, VIC is a good board!  HOWEVER, I must give credit to XXX1313.  He tipped me off to Nevsun (very nice gain) and Mawson West.  I bought a little bit a while ago, and I'm kicking myself I didn't get more.

Mawson West very well might be the cheapest company out there.  I think they are going to put up some very good numbers.

There is risk with them, but the valuation is just too compelling, management looks good. 

We'll see soon!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on November 06, 2013, 01:43:25 AM
I am buying Mawson West.

I think they will have good numbers coming up.

As am I, someone reads VIC....
Just saw it yesterday and now moving cash around to buy.

Yes, VIC is a good board!  HOWEVER, I must give credit to XXX1313.  He tipped me off to Nevsun (very nice gain) and Mawson West.  I bought a little bit a while ago, and I'm kicking myself I didn't get more.

Mawson West very well might be the cheapest company out there.  I think they are going to put up some very good numbers.

There is risk with them, but the valuation is just too compelling, management looks good. 

We'll see soon!

whats the Thesis behind mawson? i dont have Access to the vic. would be great if someone of you give me a short Explanation. would be great thank you :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 07, 2013, 01:54:47 PM
Anyone did some buying today?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Packer16 on November 07, 2013, 01:56:58 PM
I bought some GNCMA and UPL via sale of the rest of my LIN.

Packer
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on November 07, 2013, 01:58:04 PM
I bought a 10% position in BPOP at $26 last week. My theory is that Peurto Rico muni crisis is overblown, and that even if there is some issue, BPOP's exposure is small enough.
I think the current 2.6% NPA is quite manageable, so there should no longer be 250 million a year loan loss provision, so the forward P/E should be 5, which is quite low.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gordoffh on November 07, 2013, 02:05:34 PM
trying to catch the falling knife    SD    LTS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Myth465 on November 07, 2013, 02:38:28 PM
Mostly holding my failing knives.
Bought during the shutdown.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: xtreeq on November 07, 2013, 02:48:47 PM
Mostly watching the oily knives pouring down .... SD, LTS (now a whopping 16.2% yield!), AET.UN ...

Managed to extracate myself this morning from ALSK above 2.50 ... whew. FTP still going down and I don't think it will stop anytime soon. OIBR down and hopefully will continue to do so so I can pick it up again :)

Packer - which UPL did you purchase? Your OIBR excel is wonderful - thanks!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Packer16 on November 07, 2013, 03:21:59 PM
Ultra Petroleum common.  They just purchased some oily properties and the market does not like it.  They have a low cost position in Nat's Gas.

Packer
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on November 07, 2013, 06:22:47 PM
Added to CHK position
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Spekulatius on November 07, 2013, 09:45:58 PM
DVN (partial buyback of a recently reduced position)
ASFI (first lot)
OVLY ( add)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on November 08, 2013, 10:51:06 AM
EXC @ 28.16
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 11, 2013, 12:55:49 PM
I wrote puts on BBRY today.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on November 11, 2013, 01:22:36 PM
Added a call on CBRX dated Mar '14. Added DOX too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on November 11, 2013, 03:03:00 PM
GNCMA today (thanks Packer!), aig leaps last week (thanks Uccmal!)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on November 11, 2013, 03:56:07 PM
GNCMA today (thanks Packer!)

There is no topic on that that I could find. Could you elaborate?

A very quick view showed a small-cap (<$400M) company in the telecom industry (not the most loved industry right now) with a high PE but low forward PE, negative free cash flow, high (>1$B) in debt, low (<2%) margins, low ROE (<10% but growing), insider buys and a recent earnings call. What got you excited? :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: plato1976 on November 11, 2013, 03:59:41 PM
It's so easy to find ...
just search "GNCMA corner of berkshire" on google...
no tip needed, btw


GNCMA today (thanks Packer!)

There is no topic on that that I could find. Could you elaborate?

A very quick view showed a small-cap (<$400M) company in the telecom industry (not the most loved industry right now) with a high PE but low forward PE, negative free cash flow, high (>1$B) in debt, low (<2%) margins, low ROE (<10% but growing), insider buys and a recent earnings call. What got you excited? :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 11, 2013, 04:01:13 PM
GNCMA today (thanks Packer!)

There is no topic on that that I could find. Could you elaborate?

A very quick view showed a small-cap (<$400M) company in the telecom industry (not the most loved industry right now) with a high PE but low forward PE, negative free cash flow, high (>1$B) in debt, low (<2%) margins, low ROE (<10% but growing), insider buys and a recent earnings call. What got you excited? :)


the topic is there. http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/gncma-general-communications/20/ (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/gncma-general-communications/20/)


also related

on ALSK

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/alsk-alaska-communications/msg140589/#msg140589 (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/alsk-alaska-communications/msg140589/#msg140589)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on November 11, 2013, 04:02:28 PM
It's so easy to find ...
just search "GNCMA corner of berkshire" on google...
no tip needed, btw


GNCMA today (thanks Packer!)

Sorry Plato, I used the forum search function thinking it worked (it doesn't find anything on "GNCMA"). I'll use Google from now on, thanks! (and no need to get grumpy ;))

There is no topic on that that I could find. Could you elaborate?

A very quick view showed a small-cap (<$400M) company in the telecom industry (not the most loved industry right now) with a high PE but low forward PE, negative free cash flow, high (>1$B) in debt, low (<2%) margins, low ROE (<10% but growing), insider buys and a recent earnings call. What got you excited? :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: T-bone1 on November 11, 2013, 04:10:22 PM
TTWO - not a traditional value stock in any sense, but it looks to be cheap, have a moat, and undergoing positive fundamental changes
Also added some CHK after earnings fallout
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: plato1976 on November 11, 2013, 04:22:02 PM
Hi, T-bone1:

What do you think about the accounting issues raised in http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/chesapeake-chk-is-this-really-a-long/

/Plato1976

Quote from: T-bone1 link=topic=8728
.msg140926#msg140926 date=1384215022
TTWO - not a traditional value stock in any sense, but it looks to be cheap, have a moat, and undergoing positive fundamental changes
Also added some CHK after earnings fallout
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petey2720 on November 11, 2013, 07:16:57 PM
Bought CRUS today
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: newyorkminute on November 12, 2013, 11:51:43 AM
Bought 30 CSD shares today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: T-bone1 on November 12, 2013, 12:13:47 PM
Hi, T-bone1:

What do you think about the accounting issues raised in http://glennchan.wordpress.com/2013/10/21/chesapeake-chk-is-this-really-a-long/

/Plato1976

Quote from: T-bone1 link=topic=8728
.msg140926#msg140926 date=1384215022
TTWO - not a traditional value stock in any sense, but it looks to be cheap, have a moat, and undergoing positive fundamental changes
Also added some CHK after earnings fallout

Those issues are real, but they have literally been known about for 10 years. 

I think full cost accounting actually makes more sense for shale assets than successful efforts accounting, but like most things, it can be gamed. 

CHK has always capitalized just about anything they could, and the FWPP was a misguided attempt to align executives with shareholders in the wildcatting days that turned into a huge leveraged compensation scheme that served no purpose.  The midstream and VPP liabilities are quantifiable and reasonably small (a few hundred million).

To step back and look at the bigger picture, this is a company being run from the top by a board hand-picked by Mason Hawkins and Carl Icahn, both of whom have been buyers at these prices.  The new CEO seems very capable and is saying the right things (specifically he is talking about ROIC and cleaning up complications rather than growth and meeting street expectations). 

I like the assets, have zero concerns about the accounting or current management team/board, and think there is a lot more improvement to come. 

Everyone agrees CHK need to do more work on costs and simplification.  The stock went down after earnings because they are concentrating on that (at the expense of short term production growth).  I think that is an opportunity.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on November 12, 2013, 12:21:56 PM
I will add my .02 regarding McClendon's profit participation.  While large was not that unusual in type...I was in the homebuilding industry in FL decades ago when banks and homebuilders were booming and there were all sorts of profit participation clauses with banks, investors, developers etc each sharing small kickers. This was before stock options really took off as a compensation form.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 13, 2013, 08:47:47 AM
I wrote puts on Annaly Capital Management, Inc. (NLY) this morning and bought FFH this afternoon.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 15, 2013, 09:16:39 AM
Bought some BAC commons, yesterday...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 18, 2013, 09:24:59 AM
I sold calls on RDS.b (Royal Dutch Shell) this morning.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 26, 2013, 08:08:34 AM
I wrote puts on AIG and ACI (Arch Coal, Inc.) this morning.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on November 26, 2013, 08:44:00 AM
I wrote puts on AIG

I plan on writing some more puts today. If you don't mind me asking - what maturity are you looking at? And what price range? I've already written some Jan/14 puts.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 26, 2013, 08:51:44 AM
Bought some FIAT yesterday and sold some NTRI.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on November 26, 2013, 09:05:23 AM
I am looking at Philippine LD Telecom (PHI). I like that it is cheap on a cash flow basis, but I don't believe the firm has that great of a reputation.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on November 26, 2013, 09:42:33 AM

Bought some BAC commons, yesterday...


Feat warriors, thanks for sharing. Just curious, what do you see today that you didn't see a month ago regarding bac or did you just have some new cash come in and not able to buy 2 weeks ago?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on November 26, 2013, 09:53:31 AM
There are many times where I can't buy certain companies due to work restrictions. Then I would have to wait until the company is off the restricted list. The restriction can last a day or weeks... It really kills the timing of my purchases sometimes because I can't take advantage of the price volatility.  It is also a reason why I can't comment much on many topics especially with regards to specific companies. Our compliance department is extremely strict (for good reasons).


With that said couple of reasons: ERICOPOLY's enligtening comments on BAC thread, the JPM settlement, and some cash came in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on November 26, 2013, 09:58:45 AM
Sounds good.
I'm still greater than 100 per cent notional in taxable account but only about 10 percent in Roth.
The stock could continue to climb but I'm hoping the market starts to discount in the taper in jan or feb.
We saw 6 percent pull back in general market starting in late may of this year on news of a taper.
I think we will see at least 6 percent this time.
The 100k question is if they will actually taper in march.
We'll see.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 26, 2013, 09:59:35 AM
Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on November 26, 2013, 11:31:40 AM
Recent purchases in the last month:

DSL - Doubleline income solutions fund
NLY - Annaly
BSBR - Banco Santeder Brazil
SAN - Banco Santander
LCSHF - Lancashire
SHLD - Sears holding

Not a particular purchase today, but I'm slowly accumulating more DSL, BSBR, with a little SAN overtime through monthly dividend reinvestment.

Also, will likely be adding to ATUSF soon.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Nnejad on November 26, 2013, 11:35:37 AM
Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.

If you don't mind my asking, why NTT and not DCM?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on November 26, 2013, 11:44:31 AM
TEO-    Telecom Argentina SA- good price today!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gjangal on November 26, 2013, 12:30:35 PM
fbrc, cheap, just bought back 650,000 shares.


If you don't mind sharing your thesis on FBRC. From their most recent 10-K their Agency commissions which used to be a significant portion of revenues is declining because of electronic trading ( 117mn in 2008 to 33mn in 2012) The most recent 10Q's also seem to be pointing to this. Offsetting this decline is the capital markets revenue which is strong given current market conditions. 

The buybacks seem to support CrestView LP reducing the stake in the company.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 26, 2013, 01:55:44 PM
I wrote puts on AIG

I plan on writing some more puts today. If you don't mind me asking - what maturity are you looking at? And what price range? I've already written some Jan/14 puts.

jm25, I wrote puts on the Feb/14, $50s at $2.55.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 26, 2013, 08:35:05 PM
Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.

If you don't mind my asking, why NTT and not DCM?

NTT looked cheaper to me, and i get a growing cloud business that offsets the shrinking mobile/voice business. That was my thought, but its possible that i am wrong :).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: zippy1 on November 26, 2013, 08:50:35 PM
Wow, EV/EBIDTA=2.44 and P?B~0.5 How did it become so cheap?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 27, 2013, 06:52:46 AM
Wow, EV/EBIDTA=2.44 and P?B~0.5 How did it become so cheap?

I don`t know, the business has grown while the stock has gone nowhere in the last 10 years.
Sold JNJ today and bought more NTT.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 27, 2013, 07:17:22 AM
I sold ABT, bought FFH and wrote puts on SHLD this morning.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rainman on November 27, 2013, 08:45:19 AM
Not sure why FFH down a lot today.
Buy some FRFHF
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bennycx on November 28, 2013, 02:35:03 PM
Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.

what's your thesis on CHRW? Seems like a good company but at an expensive price
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 28, 2013, 08:58:56 PM
Bought CHRW and stocked up on NTT.

what's your thesis on CHRW? Seems like a good company but at an expensive price

I would say it was not cheaper in the last 10 years :). But what do i know, i am a cloner.  ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orion on November 29, 2013, 07:25:03 AM
Added some URB.A (still like the big discount to NAV. Price ~1.87 vs. NAV of 2.87)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on November 29, 2013, 07:37:16 AM
Added some URB.A (still like the big discount to NAV. Price ~1.87 vs. NAV of 2.87)

I owned for a while. I can't believe people just sell their shares to caldwell. He is gonna drive this stock to $2.50. I dont understand why you would sell.

I bought some more WFC today
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on November 29, 2013, 08:37:11 AM
Added some URB.A (still like the big discount to NAV. Price ~1.87 vs. NAV of 2.87)

I owned for a while. I can't believe people just sell their shares to caldwell. He is gonna drive this stock to $2.50. I dont understand why you would sell.

I bought some more WFC today

This seems quite interesting. It looks like the shares were tracking a much closer P/BV (near 0.8x) and at the start of September this spread widened completely 0.7x. Any idea what happened?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 02, 2013, 08:20:45 AM
I bought Gazprom and wrote puts on SHLD this morning.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on December 10, 2013, 10:48:35 AM
KMI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jwfm1985 on December 10, 2013, 12:11:51 PM
Bought more GNCMA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on December 10, 2013, 01:33:22 PM
Agree, GNCMA  8)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on December 11, 2013, 11:45:41 AM
TEO- Telecom Argentina S.A

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on December 13, 2013, 06:50:23 AM
just bought a bunch of myriad genetics. Seems really misunderstood by the market. Now lets hope  the news is positive today!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on December 13, 2013, 07:27:46 AM
Might buy more DOX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: SharperDingaan on December 13, 2013, 07:47:28 AM
EFN

If you want to play in the derivative vehicle space, this is probably one of your better candidates. One of our 2 main picks from early in the year; we are not adding - but continue to hold on to a sizeable position that is up 140% on the year ;)

Not for everyone, so look before you leap.

SD
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on December 13, 2013, 08:36:53 AM
Sold FUJIY, bought ARCP.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on December 18, 2013, 01:37:38 PM
Bought some GM/Bs this Monday.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on December 18, 2013, 02:50:56 PM
I've been poking around the mining sector.

I bought some CALVF today, just a small initial stake, but I was also trying to get some Mawson West.

Anybody else buying miners?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: negative alpha on December 18, 2013, 02:59:52 PM
Bought some GM/Bs this Monday.

Fareast, have you taken a look at the C warrants? They're 2 year, $42.31 strike and currently priced at $5.65. I'm in a B's as well, but looking for an opinion on the C's.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hielko on December 18, 2013, 03:29:15 PM
Added some URB.A (still like the big discount to NAV. Price ~1.87 vs. NAV of 2.87)

I owned for a while. I can't believe people just sell their shares to caldwell. He is gonna drive this stock to $2.50. I dont understand why you would sell.
There are some very good reasons why a big discount exists. High management fees, high trading expenses, high interest rate on their debt, and some questionable investments (related party private company, leveraged gold etf's)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Dazel on December 18, 2013, 03:36:15 PM


More Altius and Clarke Inc.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on December 19, 2013, 10:28:32 AM
Doubled my position in Air Lease Corp. yesterday after hearing the Fed decision to keep interest rates low. I initiated a position in CHRW earlier this week.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 19, 2013, 11:47:18 AM
Added to KMP (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on December 23, 2013, 07:33:20 AM
Sold WMT,MT and bought more CHL. Initiated a position in WSTG.
I hope my turnover gets lower over the next year, but currently i am optimizing my holdings with all the new knowledge i got from here and elsewhere.

A big thanks to all  :-*.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on December 23, 2013, 08:00:29 AM
Added to KMP (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.)

I was going to take another tranche of KMI @ $30 but it popped on me.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on December 23, 2013, 11:39:39 AM
Added to KMP (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, L.P.)

I was going to take another tranche of KMI @ $30 but it popped on me.

Added Kinder Morgan to my portfolio as well at $33. Finished selling Express Scripts, Chesapeake Preferreds CHKDG, and Auto Nation.   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petey2720 on December 23, 2013, 11:55:22 AM
Maybe its time someone add a thread called:  "What are you selling today?"
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on December 23, 2013, 11:59:14 AM
Maybe its time someone add a thread called:  "What are you selling today?"

It already exists :)

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/what-are-you-selling-today/
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on December 23, 2013, 12:09:02 PM
Will probably buy DOX tomorrow.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on January 03, 2014, 08:28:27 AM
Sold AZN to buy SEP and more EXC yesterday. I should have waited a day :P
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valuecfa on January 03, 2014, 08:33:53 AM
Picked up some SHLD
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ECCO on January 03, 2014, 08:34:59 AM
DE and BP
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Yours Truly on January 03, 2014, 10:51:33 AM
GM B warrants
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 03, 2014, 11:23:54 AM
NLY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Packer16 on January 03, 2014, 11:36:14 AM
Lukoil  I have been listening to Jim Rogers for too long.

Packer
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on January 03, 2014, 11:38:00 AM
I've never listened to Jim Rogers but LUKOY and JSHLY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on January 03, 2014, 12:10:21 PM
Made some 2014 contributions to my IRA and used the money to

Open Positions in
SHLD
MKL
iShares Turkey

Add to
Lancashire
Banco Santander Brasil

And am considering whether or not to add to my large position in Altius or lever my Kami exposure through Alderon.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: cogitator99 on January 07, 2014, 02:02:59 AM
Recently added to DE & GM.

Recently initiated CHRW & KMI.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on January 07, 2014, 05:15:01 AM
^^ Why Turkey ETF?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on January 07, 2014, 06:09:50 AM
Sold Fiserv. I still like the company, is just ahead of itself. Bought Laurent Pierre and discovered Remy Cointreau when researching the former. I have a bit more work to do understanding the implications of Chinese regulation on the Remy's long term growth, but it looks interesting.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: prevalou on January 07, 2014, 06:37:43 AM
Laurent Pierre or Laurent Perrier ?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on January 07, 2014, 06:55:40 AM
Laurent Pierre or Laurent Perrier ?

Laurent Perrier. Symbol LPE.PA. Sorry typed it on my phone and got auto corrected!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on January 07, 2014, 09:38:28 AM
Hey Ross isn't it time for the Q1 CoBaF fund rebalance?

Packer's picks GNCMA and INLOT.AT probably need to be added. Also I think a lot of the names only getting 0-1 votes can be safely eliminated.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: prevalou on January 07, 2014, 09:40:31 AM
excellent champagne ! Bernard de Nonancourt was the founder (an old brand he reijevunated), he was a great uncle of my wife.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on January 07, 2014, 06:20:17 PM
^^ Why Turkey ETF?

The Turkish market is down some 40+% due to all of the political turmoil and Fed tapering fears. It trades at about a P/E of 9 and a CAPE of 9-10 from what I could tell with the few articles I read. That was enough for me to buy into a diversified index. I don't have enough time to research the underlying country and companies to cherry pick here, but this kind of cheapness on a diversified index in a higher growth emerging market was attractive to me to begin a small position.

I've been moving my U.S. exposure to Europe and emerging markets over the last years and a half as European and Emerging markets are more favorably priced. This small amount of equity exposure to Turkey (about 1% of portfolio value) is in addition to about 2% exposure to Russia (through Gazprom), 6% exposure to Brazil (through BSBR), and my 20% in Europe (various investments). I also have some debt exposure to foreign economies through my fixed income CEF (DSL).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on January 09, 2014, 02:28:39 AM
Any one else looking in to Wm. Morrison Supermarkets plc. as this has been the biggest purchase of Francisco Garcia Parames last year.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on January 09, 2014, 02:41:27 AM
I bought more GNCMA at $11.08 a few days ago. Still incredibly cheap.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on January 13, 2014, 12:42:52 PM
Bought last week and today (a little):

GNCMA
OTM puts on SPY, CRM, FB and AMZN (basically to protect long portfolio)
10% short on SPY as hedge

I had already written off the puts as insurance but seems like I could get some use out of them in the end. I'm still 100% long too so market direction shouldn't matter much to me.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petey2720 on January 13, 2014, 12:46:57 PM
Bought TWGP today as a merger arbitrage trade
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: globalfinancepartners on January 13, 2014, 01:06:17 PM
Bought TWGP today as a merger arbitrage trade

I've been looking at Tower as well today, since I received a note from Insurance Insider about the large discount today.  I guess with so many material adverse changes already under Tower's belt, there are some that don't believe there won't be at least one more material 'oops'…  Big spread if it goes through at $3 cash by 'summer' though…

(8-k on merger)
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289592/000119312514003005/d653094d8k.htm
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1289592/000119312514003005/0001193125-14-003005-index.htm
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on January 13, 2014, 01:55:38 PM
Added some to the SPY puts we bought a few days ago.  Portfolio is about 2/3 hedged.

Why? WSBASE has flattened out of the year and a half growth slope, but still too early to say there is a change in the trend.

Dynamics of S&P500 slope looks like a market on the verge of a crash, according to Sornette.

Fed is concerned about the development of an asset bubble, so they may not save the bacon this time.

Market cap/ GDP is high etc etc etc

In short, lots of yellow flags.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on January 13, 2014, 03:24:46 PM
IMO, the Street is arm twisting the incoming Fed chief as she is thinking about tapering etc.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on January 13, 2014, 03:43:06 PM


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on January 13, 2014, 06:26:28 PM


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.

If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges.  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on January 13, 2014, 10:26:19 PM
Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year  ago.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on January 13, 2014, 10:37:09 PM
Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year  ago.

yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio?

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on January 14, 2014, 05:35:11 AM


In short, lots of yellow flags.

But the same can be said for 2012 and 2013......

The above statement, honestly, seems like a contrarian flag to me.

If hedges were high probability winners, they wouldn't call them hedges.  :)

Great response.  I liked it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: onyx1 on January 14, 2014, 07:56:10 AM
Added some to the SPY puts we bought a few days ago.  Portfolio is about 2/3 hedged.

Why? WSBASE has flattened out of the year and a half growth slope, but still too early to say there is a change in the trend.

Dynamics of S&P500 slope looks like a market on the verge of a crash, according to Sornette.

Fed is concerned about the development of an asset bubble, so they may not save the bacon this time.

Market cap/ GDP is high etc etc etc

In short, lots of yellow flags.

Raising cash by cutting long exposure and leverage.  Not macro related.  I want to own assets with a healthy asymmetric return profile but as prices have increased the return profiles are too balanced.  Last time I held this much cash was mid-2011.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 24, 2014, 06:45:14 AM
correction?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on January 24, 2014, 07:02:29 AM
Nothing. I have no new ideas and 40 something % cash. Well I did buy a tiny bit of FIAT based on this board, but I missed the big run. I'll have a lot to research in a few weeks with 13Fs.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 24, 2014, 08:58:32 AM
I wrote puts on AIG and SHLD this morning.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gjangal on January 24, 2014, 09:56:47 AM
C ,  90% Tangible book. Betting on them improving their ROE/ROA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: T-bone1 on January 24, 2014, 12:06:32 PM
GST . . . company could probably be sold tomorrow at this price and likely worth $9 in six months
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on January 24, 2014, 01:12:24 PM
Yes, it remains a hedge. If I win I practically lose nothing. If the market keeps rising, I win a few percent less. A lot of bearish commentators from different angles (macro, value, technical,..) have been turning. Fear was much higher a year  ago.

yes yes I agree.... btw how exactly do you hedge? with puts on an amount equal to the entire size of your portfolio?



Yes more or less but I'm not very precise about it. For instance, yesterday I bought some GME puts despite being well hedged already. Generally I will lower my put position as it increases in value or add to them as they get worthless. Nothing fancy.

Despite the market drop today, my portfolio was up slightly today and GNCMA isn't making that particulary easy lately. :) It's typical that this kind of market move happens exactly before I leave the country for 4 weeks. Lukily I'll sometimes have access to Wifi in case we get a decent correction.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on January 24, 2014, 03:26:59 PM
More than fully hedged before today. Bought some more OTM puts today to add to the formerly OTM puts that are now ITM. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on January 24, 2014, 04:06:03 PM
Nice job!
Futures are down another 335 for Monday on the Dow
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on January 24, 2014, 04:19:45 PM
For the more able people on the board than me regarding macro impact, how big of an impact can the news of the past couple days affect global growth?
I just watched Moynihan on cnbc thinks he United States will grow 3 percent and 3.6 percent for global growth.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on January 24, 2014, 04:20:56 PM
Nice job!
Futures are down another 335 for Monday on the Dow

Come on, check your number. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on January 24, 2014, 04:24:16 PM
For the more able people on the board than me regarding macro impact, how big of an impact can the news of the past couple days affect global growth?
I just watched Moynihan on cnbc thinks he United States will grow 3 percent and 3.6 percent for global growth.

What news? The only news I remember that is significant was China's PMI dropped. Market does not go straight up or down.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on January 24, 2014, 04:25:06 PM
More than fully hedged before today. Bought some more OTM puts today to add to the formerly OTM puts that are now ITM.

Nice, I sold half of my OTM puts. I wasted lots of money on these so called hedge last year.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on January 24, 2014, 04:33:39 PM
"Come on, check your number"

I checked Bloomberg from my phone.
Apologize if misread it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on January 24, 2014, 04:38:16 PM
"Come on, check your number"

I checked Bloomberg from my phone.
Apologize if misread it.

No worries, that's the future for today, not next Monday.
(I mean the 300 pts is today's drop)
Future is indeed lower than todays' close tho.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on January 24, 2014, 04:41:38 PM
Fed might actually pause at 75 on wed if we keep dropping like this.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alwaysinvert on January 24, 2014, 05:01:33 PM
More pkx
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on January 24, 2014, 06:39:23 PM
More pkx

+1
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 27, 2014, 07:12:14 AM
Lukoil
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on January 27, 2014, 07:33:45 AM
I am still waiting for BAC to drop into the $15.xx, everyone, be patient...

Tks,
S
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on January 27, 2014, 07:44:37 AM
I am still waiting for BAC to drop into the $15.xx, everyone, be patient...

Tks,
S

Wow, and to think I waited for two years just to break that level.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on January 27, 2014, 07:52:13 AM
Eric, we both know BAC is almost a no brainer over the next 2 years.  I have about 20-25% of my portfolio in BAC common/warrants / options and would love to continue to add but trying to buy at the bottom of this sell-off.  I was lucky to buy near the bottom like yourself but I did not have the balls to go 100% of my portfolio at that price...  :)

Tks,
S

I am still waiting for BAC to drop into the $15.xx, everyone, be patient...

Tks,
S

Wow, and to think I waited for two years just to break that level.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on January 27, 2014, 09:47:52 AM
HTZ - trading for less than 10 times its true earnings power of $3 per share.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 27, 2014, 08:54:47 PM
I bought LUKOIL today.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on January 28, 2014, 04:31:59 AM
HTZ - trading for less than 10 times its true earnings power of $3 per share.

HTZ intrigues me but in a display of rationality, I recoil due to bad experiences with the old Cendant.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on January 28, 2014, 04:45:40 AM
HTZ - trading for less than 10 times its true earnings power of $3 per share.

HTZ intrigues me but in a display of rationality, I recoil due to bad experiences with the old Cendant.

hahahah
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on January 29, 2014, 06:16:12 AM
More Fiat (FIATY)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 29, 2014, 11:09:27 AM
I bought TGLDX (Tocqueville Gold Fund) and LEAPs on IAU and SLV today (Jan. 2016 calls).

Thanks
Lance   

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on January 29, 2014, 12:06:27 PM
More Fiat (FIATY)

+1
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on January 29, 2014, 12:08:12 PM
I just initiated a small starter position of Citi at $48.15.  It is currently 13% below TBV and 34% below book value.   CCAR results are just around the corner and I cannot wait for C to continue to repurchase a larger amount of their stock under TBV!!!

Tks,
S
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jwfm1985 on January 29, 2014, 12:34:10 PM
GNCMA & AAPL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on January 29, 2014, 12:48:37 PM
IBM

Love the shorts moving in!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Matti on January 29, 2014, 03:32:20 PM
I opened a position in FIATY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on January 31, 2014, 09:59:10 AM
adding to GNCMA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on January 31, 2014, 10:05:51 AM
IBM
Get on board- it is worth $240 a share.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on January 31, 2014, 12:22:09 PM
Bought some JPM and GM.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 01, 2014, 08:31:08 AM
So far I look like an idiot with citi.
I don't  understand why bac is trading at 12.5x earnings and citi is at 9.5.
I didn't think the market would wait till March 1st and then the banks would shoot up for ccar 3 years in  row.
I thought it would happen by now.
I'm ready for mid march when the dividend raise is announced and in April when citi can start buying back stock.
In the aftermarket it was trading at 15 percent discount to tangible book but it earned 8 percent last year and this year is 9 percent on tangible book.
The irr is well over 10 percent.
Interest rates are at zero and the 10 year treasury is at 2.6 and we are suppose to grow at 3 percent GDP according to Moynihan and other bank ceos with the biggest loan and deposit growth in years.
The risk premium with citi is about 800 basis points.
I feel like I'm living on an island and no one else sees this.
I'm not arguing it should be at 12.5x earnings like back but 9.5?
I don't get it. It should at least be at 11x earnings.
The bloody earnings rate for the investor is higher than the multiple.
And this is a company that earned 4.42 this year, projected by all analysts to earn 5 this year and 5.85 next year.
And a dta worth a third of the market cap.
That's part of being a value investor willing to look like you are on a deserted island.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 01, 2014, 08:46:55 AM
So far I look like an idiot with citi.
I don't  understand why bac is trading at 12.5x earnings and citi is at 9.5.
I didn't think the market would wait till March 1st and then the banks would shoot up for ccar 3 years in  row.
I thought it would happen by now.
I'm ready for mid march when the dividend raise is announced and in April when citi can start buying back stock.
In the aftermarket it was trading at 15 percent discount to tangible book but it earned 8 percent last year and this year is 9 percent on tangible book.
The irr is well over 10 percent.
Interest rates are at zero and the 10 year treasury is at 2.6 and we are suppose to grow at 3 percent GDP according to Moynihan and other bank ceos with the biggest loan and deposit growth in years.
The risk premium with citi is about 800 basis points.
I feel like I'm living on an island and no one else sees this.
I'm not arguing it should be at 12.5x earnings like back but 9.5?
I don't get it. It should at least be at 11x earnings.
The bloody earnings rate for the investor is higher than the multiple.
And this is a company that earned 4.42 this year, projected by all analysts to earn 5 this year and 5.85 next year.
And a dta worth a third of the market cap.
That's part of being a value investor willing to look like you are on a deserted island.


 Citi has a much bigger presence in EM markets than the other big universal banks.
I think the Emerging Market 'crisis' is dragging down C. Investors/traders sell this because they are afraid of the EM exposure.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 01, 2014, 09:19:39 AM
They do have a bigger presence but so far I haven't heard of any impairments..
Their max loss to Argentina is less than a billion.
If this doesl turn into 97-98 again I can see that but it's a lot different now compared to then. Floating currencies, less external debt.

China just released their January pmi at 50.5. They are still expanding.
I think within 2 weeks we will shoot upward.
I plan to be better protected in the future though.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 01, 2014, 10:03:47 AM
It looks like cities max exposure to Argentina is 17 cents a share.
They have a lot more exposure to Brazil and Mexico.
That would be the time to get worried, if it spread.

My comment about it not lasting more than 2 weeks is speculation of course as psychology can feed on itself.
My earlier post was trying to wrap my head around the  25 percent discount to bac.
If there is contagion with em I suppose that discount is warranted.
Mexico seems to be doing quite well.
Anyone on thew board follow EM closely?

If so, what is the probability of contagion and things getting much worse?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 01, 2014, 10:24:21 AM
Wescobrk,

Pre 08/09 did C generally trade at a premium or a discount (based on earnings multiples) to BAC and the other domestic banks?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 01, 2014, 10:35:48 AM
I honestly don't know.
It use to sell at multiples of book value but that won't ever happen again.
It probable sold around the same multiple of bac and jpm pre 08.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: damianolive on February 01, 2014, 12:34:48 PM
Comparing multiples to book or tangible book may not be the best alternative for Citi right now. If you instead look at price to basel 3 tier 1 capital used at Citicorp (i.e. excluding Holdings) and compare that to BAC and JPM, they are very similar (1.4x in all 3 cases). This makes sense considering that capital tied up at Holdings has a negative return now. However, this ignores the high probability that Holdings will break even in the near term as well as the pace of capital build up at Citicorp from earnings, DTA use and decline in Holdings RWA. Citi is on its way to massive over capitalization in the next 2-4 years and the stock price doesn't reflect it. This is perhaps reasonable given Citi's performance in the 2012 ccar (who knows if shareholders will get their hands on that excess capital) but it sill ignores the ~20% annual growth in basel 3 tier 1 capital that Citicorp can achieve in the next 3 years just by staying the course (i.e. using Wall Street consensus numbers, which assume modest earnings growth).
 
As a side note my work relates to investing in EM and I'm from Argentina. The issues going on there are specific to the country, I don't think the chances of contagion are high, but we'll see.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 01, 2014, 01:25:23 PM
"Comparing multiples to book or tangible book may not be the best alternative for Citi right now. If you instead look at price to basel 3 tier 1 capital used at Citicorp (i.e. excluding Holdings) and compare that to BAC and JPM, they are very similar (1.4x in all 3 cases). This makes sense considering that capital tied up at Holdings has a negative return now. However, this ignores the high probability that Holdings will break even in the near term as well as the pace of capital build up at Citicorp from earnings, DTA use and decline in Holdings RWA. Citi is on its way to massive over capitalization in the next 2-4 years and the stock price doesn't reflect it. This is perhaps reasonable given Citi's performance in the 2012 ccar (who knows if shareholders will get their hands on that excess capital) but it sill ignores the ~20% annual growth in basel 3 tier 1 capital that Citicorp can achieve in the next 3 years just by staying the course (i.e. using Wall Street consensus numbers, which assume modest earnings growth).
 
As a side note my work relates to investing in EM and I'm from Argentina. The issues going on there are specific to the country, I don't think the chances of contagion are high, but we'll see."

Thanks for your comments.

I've seen estimates for 25 cent dividend and 5-7 billion in buybacks in March.
They are estimating roa of 90-110 by next year so I'm assuming assuming holdings will be at break even by late next year.
2015 and beyond ccar should be very attractive.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 01, 2014, 08:14:31 PM
C - What is happening at emerging market exactly.. I check Turkey's currency, it's down a few percent... but seems not that much.. and what else?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on February 02, 2014, 08:04:33 AM
Don't forget, C has about $2B in preferred which they can call.  I am assuming those will be called as part of this CCAR results as they have been improving their funding model. 

Tks,
S
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on February 03, 2014, 08:25:06 AM
More Lukoil
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PLynchJr on February 03, 2014, 09:25:39 AM
PM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on February 03, 2014, 09:51:59 AM
IBM @ $173.70
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 03, 2014, 10:06:40 AM
I honestly don't know.
It use to sell at multiples of book value but that won't ever happen again.
It probable sold around the same multiple of bac and jpm pre 08.

It sold for about 10x earnings in 2006/2007.  I remember this well because Bill Miller was spotlighted in a Morningstar article/interview where he was saying that if he wanted to own a commodity, it would be "C".  Commodities at the time were hot and he thought he was clever buying C because of the low P/E.

Banks like C and BAC today achieve their earnings with far less risk compared to then, and consequently I think there should be a risk/adjusted increase in the market P/E for the same dollar of earnings. 

The market will value banks based on earnings, not book values, and they will assign a P/E based on what amount of risk achieves those earnings.

So far the biggest risk I've seen for a bank is the dilution risk (that is, if they can even raise capital -- I'm talking about the risks to the banks that don't completely go under) -- most of the hit to C and BAC's stock price since 2007 has come from dilution, not loan losses (helped by the fact that "bailouts"/intervention let them survive).  So now that they hold a lot more capital (and they are forced to do so by the regulators), that risk is massively reduced.  Needless to say, their funding models are also much cleaner (greater reliance on deposits instead of wholesale funding and LT debt).  And risk has been reduced in many other ways (better terms on loans, better collateral backing RE loans).

Nobody can argue that $1 of earnings achieved in a high risk manner will get the same market multiple as $1 of earnings achieved in a relatively far less risky manner.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 03, 2014, 11:47:11 AM
I should probably turn my Ira over like Eric.
Watching citi everyday is distracting me from my work.
Down every day for two weeks. About 16 percent discount to tangible book.
New ism number out and below expectations.
Dimon, Moynihan, etc all think 3 percent GDP this year. IMF thinks global growth will increaese. disconnect to everyone saying economy is improving with 1200 point sell off in last couple of weeks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on February 03, 2014, 12:48:43 PM
My friend, stocks go up and down and take time for the thesis to play out.  Right now we seem to be in the middle of a correction so this is the perfect opportunity to load up!

"The big money is not in the buying and selling … but in the waiting. " - Charlie Munger

Tks,
S

I should probably turn my Ira over like Eric.
Watching citi everyday is distracting me from my work.
Down every day for two weeks. About 16 percent discount to tangible book.
New ism number out and below expectations.
Dimon, Moynihan, etc all think 3 percent GDP this year. IMF thinks global growth will increaese. disconnect to everyone saying economy is improving with 1200 point sell off in last couple of weeks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on February 03, 2014, 02:51:33 PM
Hey, don't feel bad about owning Citi today.  At least you didn't own Berkshire (down slightly more than Citi).

MBI did great though.  Some analyst mentioned that Puerto Rico downgrade won't be so bad.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 03, 2014, 06:36:25 PM
Today, C out-performed BAC, this happen rarely, as u know, BAC is considered a must have for many funds now.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 03, 2014, 07:18:49 PM
FTP.TO and SHLD.
Closed out VXX, still holding some SPY puts.
Don't think the world is ending. In contrast, we are in growth mode based on some of recent #s.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on February 03, 2014, 07:31:55 PM
Today, C out-performed BAC, this happen rarely, as u know, BAC is considered a must have for many funds now.

I just don't see what is C's competitive advantage. I'll post in another thread.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: obtuse_investor on February 03, 2014, 07:37:41 PM
IBM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 03, 2014, 09:20:48 PM
Didn't buy it but am seriously looking at ASCMA, a john malone step child.   It looks like it has about a 14% FCF yield and has been growing 30-40% per year.  I am just not sure why it has plunged so much recently, I think it is down over 20% in the past couple of weeks on no news. 

Anyone have any opinions on it?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on February 03, 2014, 09:23:05 PM
lunch - do you mean gncma?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 03, 2014, 09:39:17 PM
No, ascent capital group.  It's basically a holding company that buys home security companies.   It appears very cheap on most metrics but with the recent price slide and so little news I wonder if I am just missing something.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kirkomi on February 03, 2014, 10:29:32 PM
ascent capital group.  It's basically a holding company that buys home security companies.   It appears very cheap on most metrics but with the recent price slide and so little news I wonder if I am just missing something.

Horizon Kinetics has a position in ASCMA. He had a very nice pitch in Value Investor Insight. Look at page 5 here.

http://www.horizonkinetics.com/docs/Value_Investor_May_2013.pdf
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on February 03, 2014, 10:45:16 PM
ASCMA looks interesting. Lunch, do you know what they're investing in? Are they acquiring a lot of companies or just stakes? They invested the equivalent of their market cap in 2012.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on February 03, 2014, 10:57:10 PM
For anyone willing to take a risk of a Chinese company, SORL looks too good to be true and getting cheaper. A PE of 6, EV/EBITDA of 3, growing earnings, growing revenue, generating cash. Makes brakes/safety components for buses/trucks. Didn't buy it but am considering a small portion. Still need to read a lot more into it. Downturn in China is my biggest fear in general.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 03, 2014, 11:41:12 PM

"Banks like C and BAC today achieve their earnings with far less risk compared to then, and consequently I think there should be a risk/adjusted increase in the market P/E for the same dollar of earnings. "

Bac is getting it at 12x earnings but nobody wants citi around 9x earnings.
At least for now.
I'm a bit surprised still no ccar date release.
Last two years fed published around jan 29th.
Maybe they won't do the two step release and they just announce all at once on march 7th.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: prevalou on February 04, 2014, 12:17:38 AM
Didn't buy it but am seriously looking at ASCMA, a john malone step child.   It looks like it has about a 14% FCF yield and has been growing 30-40% per year.  I am just not sure why it has plunged so much recently, I think it is down over 20% in the past couple of weeks on no news. 

Anyone have any opinions on it?

the plunge is due to ADT results that show an increase in the churn and more competition.
Steady free cash flow is 193 m$ less 100m$ min interest cost=93 m$. So free cash flow is more 10 % than 14 %
it's growing 30 % to 40 % including acquisitions
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on February 04, 2014, 01:08:36 AM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: snowball82 on February 04, 2014, 03:36:09 AM
Smart employee benefits (seb.v), Biosyent (Rx.v) & XPEL (dap-u)

Great microcap
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on February 04, 2014, 04:23:54 AM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)



+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 04, 2014, 04:42:08 AM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on February 04, 2014, 06:34:49 AM
Smart employee benefits (seb.v), Biosyent (Rx.v) & XPEL (dap-u)

Great microcap

What are your views on Biosyent - specifically their product portfolio? Good growth as a mini-Paladin Labs.
Strong growth/margins, low capex, etc. I'd like to hear your views.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on February 04, 2014, 07:33:34 AM
It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

The problem is being right twice. The next bounce up can easily kill the profits and because of the late buys the chance is good that the hedge result is a loss. I can`t foresee the future but the VIX has spiked to a 1 year high yesterday.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longlake95 on February 04, 2014, 07:35:11 AM
Bought more YPF yesterday @ 21 7/8.

LL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on February 04, 2014, 07:45:41 AM
Bought some more BP today, oil&gas companies are now at the target of 25% of my portfolio. Next funds go to something else.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on February 04, 2014, 08:07:54 AM
Quote
Bought more YPF yesterday @ 21 7/8.

LL

And I thought I was the only one in the world getting involved in Argentina. Best of luck!
(I'm long TEO- Telecom Argentina) Think it could be a double by 2016
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longlake95 on February 04, 2014, 08:18:17 AM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on February 04, 2014, 08:24:04 AM
COH
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 04, 2014, 08:46:26 AM
PWE  Awesome deal, lol.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on February 04, 2014, 10:18:59 AM
Added to LMCA.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: saltybit on February 04, 2014, 10:40:47 AM
SIRI and LMCA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jwfm1985 on February 04, 2014, 11:08:10 AM
GNCMA, again
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on February 04, 2014, 11:16:18 AM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wellmont on February 04, 2014, 12:30:13 PM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on February 04, 2014, 12:45:44 PM
Rolled my BAC Jan '15 10-20 call spreads to Jan '16 12-25 call spreads
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on February 04, 2014, 12:58:27 PM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueInv on February 04, 2014, 01:32:43 PM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.

Who bought YPF?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on February 04, 2014, 01:34:47 PM
GNCMA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 04, 2014, 05:52:17 PM
prevalou,

Thanks for the feedback!  I knew ADT was a comp but I don't follow them, my bad I guess.  You are right on the FCF as well, found it in the citigroup conference presentation.   It still seems fairly cheap though given their historical growth.  I know it is with acquisitions but historically the acquisitions have translated well on a FCF / share metric.   The biggest issue I see is a fairly shallow moat and Malone selling a big chunk of shares.  I will probably watch them for awhile longer.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 04, 2014, 06:12:53 PM
Well, and I got more FTP.TO today.
Not without risk but the risk / reward is getting very asymmetric. Chad laid out the non-DP business really well in the recent presentation, and the cost cutting and loonie will help the DP business quite a bit going forward.



Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kiltacular on February 04, 2014, 09:55:37 PM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

I give him credit.  He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 05, 2014, 04:53:23 AM
Of coz, he is one of the few who can time it right. I am one of the many who can't.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kiltacular on February 05, 2014, 10:31:07 AM
Of coz, he is one of the few who can time it right. I am one of the many who can't.

 :) I'm in your camp...I just selfishly want to make sure he keeps us updated! 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Mephistopheles on February 05, 2014, 11:51:32 AM
SHLD. The market cap is now down to $3.7 billion.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on February 05, 2014, 12:05:29 PM
SHLD. The market cap is now down to $3.7 billion.


Enterprise value is near $8 billion though when you include their debt. I'd like to see some insiders make some purchases. It's just tough to value a company bleeding over a billion in cash a year.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on February 05, 2014, 12:30:42 PM
BRK.B
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on February 05, 2014, 12:31:41 PM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

I give him credit.  He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.

you are very kind. However, there is a big difference in predicting a major turn in the market and making money on that prediction.  Our hedge is tricky. I don't have the guts to in effect go short with TRS as Watsa did because of the huge adverse movement if the market against all reason continues to go up.

We started out in mid January with slightly OTM Feb SPY puts. These waffled back and forth mostly under water until the last few days of Jan. Today, we closed out the last of these with a nice gain. In the meantime, we have been rolling about two thirds of these gains farther out on the volatility curve, buying March and then April SPY and IWM puts that are longer dated and a little bit farther out of the money than the February puts when we first bought them.  We also took some $$ off the table so that if the market is sluggish to decline or pops back up, we won't lose money on the hedge.

Now, if the market goes down fast or a lot, the greater volatility exposure will give us an extra kick.  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on February 05, 2014, 06:49:46 PM
LMCA.  Malone has levers.  He should be able to use them to produce some decent alpha. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 05, 2014, 07:08:18 PM
Bought OTM puts on IWM early today to add to the pile of SPY puts we own.  Nice pop with the IWM puts up about 65% at the close.  Have been rolling some of the ITM SPY puts into longer duration OTM puts.

It's definitely nice to have an increasing store of potential dry powder in this decline.  It remains to be seen if, in the immortal words of George W. Bush, "This sucker's going down." :)





+1. Let the discussion continue on whether it makes sense to hedge or not but it sure feels nice to have no impact on your portfolio when the markets go down 2%+, especially when you are at that time trekking in northern thailand's jungle! :d

It sure feels good when you timed it right... the thing is how often you timed it right. If one has the ability on timing (some do), there is much better way to make money than doing "hedges"

I give him credit.  He timed it perfectly and he had a reason...WSBASE...he called it on the way up too.

you are very kind. However, there is a big difference in predicting a major turn in the market and making money on that prediction.  Our hedge is tricky. I don't have the guts to in effect go short with TRS as Watsa did because of the huge adverse movement if the market against all reason continues to go up.

We started out in mid January with slightly OTM Feb SPY puts. These waffled back and forth mostly under water until the last few days of Jan. Today, we closed out the last of these with a nice gain. In the meantime, we have been rolling about two thirds of these gains farther out on the volatility curve, buying March and then April SPY and IWM puts that are longer dated and a little bit farther out of the money than the February puts when we first bought them.  We also took some $$ off the table so that if the market is sluggish to decline or pops back up, we won't lose money on the hedge.

Now, if the market goes down fast or a lot, the greater volatility exposure will give us an extra kick.  :)

twacowfca,

Nice. So, I switched some of my VXX to SPY puts (my logic is the VXX up alot while market actually did hold up well - so VXX is overpriced?)... is that a right thing to do? TIA.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: twacowfca on February 05, 2014, 08:27:12 PM
VXX is good as volatility goes up dramatically when there is the smell of panic on the wind and people pay up for near dated protection..  It's also nice because movement in the VIX leads what's going to happen to the VXX when people get scared.  Thus, one can tell when it's time to get in the VXX or out of it.

Otherwise, the VXX will eat your lunch 95% of the time that you are long

I loved the XXV and successors when it first came out before they advanced up to the limits. It didn't have the frictional costs of many other such funds. It certainly saved a lot of time reading the tape daily to decide when to buy back the short positions on the index as they got near dated.

If the market gets very ugly, you are almost certain to make a lot of money shorting the VXX as it peaks near the levels it reached in 2008 and 2009.  All you have to do is hold on until the VXX mean reverts. That's easier said than done. Most sure things are pretty simple, but surprisingly difficult to execute. :) 

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 05, 2014, 09:01:00 PM
Thanks, nice overview on VXX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on February 05, 2014, 09:04:27 PM
Buying OTM options with only 1-2 month DTE is like buying heavily overvalued stock. They simply have no value, when you buy them you have to prey a world collapse happens, because otherwise you won`t make money. You can be right with your directional call and still lose money. An experienced option trader calls these types of options junk and sells them, >75% of these options are worthless on expiration. They are only good for one kind of trade and that is when you go long volatility. But you don`t go long vol when the 1 year IV-Rank is >50% (as it is since 1 week in SPY), you are doomed to lose statistically on these kind of trades.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on February 05, 2014, 09:12:41 PM
Im a bit frustrated, I've been selling ATM puts on SORL Feb 2014 for 25% of strike price. I managed to get a decent position but I placed a mid-spread ask price and price is up for no reason. My plan was to keep doing this until the end of the year or until a position is exercised. Either way I'm happy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Mephistopheles on February 05, 2014, 09:20:49 PM
SHLD. The market cap is now down to $3.7 billion.


Enterprise value is near $8 billion though when you include their debt. I'd like to see some insiders make some purchases. It's just tough to value a company bleeding over a billion in cash a year.

I'm estimating roughly $8.1 billion EV at the end of 4Q if you count total debt of $3.9 billion (based on an $800 million reduction in the domestic credit facility in the update press release), $3.7 billion market cap, $1.8 billion in cash from the press release (included $500 million pro forma from Lands End), and I even included $2.4 billion in pension from 3Q which should most likely be less after the market run up.

Then if you subtract roughly $300 million equity value for LE, $1.8 billlion for KCD, $4.4 billion in net inventories (estimate for 4Q), and $500 million for the warranty business, you are left with $1.1 billion for the real estate, home services business, and anything else I missed. Of course Sears Canada is consolidated so that needs to be adjusted. But I think $1.1 billion is extremely cheap. As far as the cash burn, a good chunk of it is coming from the pension, which I accounted for here. And then the rest of the waste is SYW, which I've heard estimates for up to $800 million.

Hopefully that comes down. I think Eddie has talked about cutting advertising spending and having SYW points replace that, of which the former is twice as much as the latter at $1.6 billion (2012). It's come down from 4.4% of revenues to 4% from '11 to '12. So there is a lot of fat to cut there if SYW membership points are truly going to replace much of traditional advertising. I wouldn't be surprised if ad spending continues to decline anyway since they keep closing stores.

Overall I see a great collection of net assets, and cash burn which really can be controlled.

As far as insider buying, even though Lampert may not have bought in a while, we all know how invested he is.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 06, 2014, 08:11:08 AM
Quote
We started out in mid January with slightly OTM Feb SPY puts.



To Cardboard's exact point - who can possibly utilize this strategy on a consistent basis? TWA is BRILLIANT - and as with Ericopoly, the "DO NOT TRY THIS AT HOME WITHOUT ADULT SUPERVISION" disclaimer should come at the bottom of every post  8)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 07, 2014, 06:06:41 AM
Market refusing to go down on terrible jobs report....

Best of luck to put holders...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 07, 2014, 06:14:41 AM
Another pass to weather.
If the next report is like this that can't be good.
Eventually all the prominent CEOs have to come out and say they are wrong about 3percent GDP this year and we are still at 2 -2.5.
Maybe productivity is increasing or we will eventually get revised up.
Dec was only revised up 1k.
Is it just me or is mark Zandhi always terribly wrong on all his predictions?
Jeez, a broken clock is right twice a day but that guy I wonder how he keeps his job.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on February 07, 2014, 07:35:00 AM
Market refusing to go down on terrible jobs report....

Best of luck to put holders...

It's not a short term game. ;)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 07, 2014, 07:43:49 AM
ha, and we are talking about buying short term put and timing vix
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 07, 2014, 12:52:19 PM
Lots of bleeding today in March '14 SPY puts. The most active $177 strike put on Yahoo! Finance is down $1.34 to $2.50 for a ~35% loss.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on February 07, 2014, 01:34:53 PM
if you have that and Sears, will be a soso day.
yes, i am one of those ppl
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Spekulatius on February 07, 2014, 02:48:05 PM
MUSA spinoff :

Positive aspects are:
1) Solid balance sheet
2) Exited noncore business (ethanol) for a nice chunk of cash
3) They own their real estate
4) Insider buys
5) Low cost leadership, which is important in Commodity business
6) Other companies in the same sector doing well (Susser)

the big Y:
[url][http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2014/02/alleghany-corp-investor-day.html/url]


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on February 08, 2014, 06:43:12 PM
I have a large cash position but realized I can't buy any new stocks until I set up a long term hedge against a credit event or further downturn in china. I'm researching a few ideas, individual companies with significant exposure to china construction and raw materials, with very low volatility, and not yet depressed value. That way I can buy some slightly OTM puts lasting until 2016. PS....if anyone has ideas I would appreciate it. I think individual company might be better instead of currency approach, say short Australian dollar, because I have no experience with currencies. And also better than overall market, say China or Australia short ETF, because my fear is in one particular sector in china - lending and construction in china. I expect and hope to lose 100% of this position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 11, 2014, 08:32:33 AM
Yellen + negative sentiment + rally disbelief = put slaying

:)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on February 11, 2014, 06:05:38 PM
Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Packer16 on February 11, 2014, 07:36:22 PM
If you think Henderson is cheap look at Wheelock and Lai Sun Garment.

Packer
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sys on February 11, 2014, 10:33:50 PM
safe and cheap ways an outside passive minority investor can purchase common shares at a discount to readily ascertainable nav.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gitawa on February 12, 2014, 08:12:02 AM
HK property companies are cheap as their property assets are valued at current (inflated) market prices. Factor in the probability of a correction and they're not as cheap as they appear.

Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: plato1976 on February 12, 2014, 09:12:24 AM
A quick question is if their property are really valued at current market price, or valued at the acquisition price many years ago (maybe in some cases ?)
Not familiar with the accounting and the situation there, so just wonder...


HK property companies are cheap as their property assets are valued at current (inflated) market prices. Factor in the probability of a correction and they're not as cheap as they appear.

Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: mcliu on February 12, 2014, 11:04:25 AM
The properties are marked-to-market on their books as per IFRS, so you would see big fluctuations in book value depending on how their marking these properties. If you factor in the lack of control, poor governance, conglomerates running like family businesses, over-valued properties and weak asset allocation, the discount seems pretty rational. Obviously, there are some better conglomerates and some worse so there may be opportunities.

A quick question is if their property are really valued at current market price, or valued at the acquisition price many years ago (maybe in some cases ?)
Not familiar with the accounting and the situation there, so just wonder...


HK property companies are cheap as their property assets are valued at current (inflated) market prices. Factor in the probability of a correction and they're not as cheap as they appear.

Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: prevalou on February 12, 2014, 12:01:55 PM
Investment properties are marked to market but developement properties are at cost (and they are sold with strong margins). A lot of their properties and land bank are In the tier 1 cities In China. Are the market prices inflated ? It is not so obvious, although the newspapers say that all the time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on February 12, 2014, 01:57:07 PM
The properties are marked-to-market on their books as per IFRS, so you would see big fluctuations in book value depending on how their marking these properties. If you factor in the lack of control, poor governance, conglomerates running like family businesses, over-valued properties and weak asset allocation, the discount seems pretty rational. Obviously, there are some better conglomerates and some worse so there may be opportunities.

A quick question is if their property are really valued at current market price, or valued at the acquisition price many years ago (maybe in some cases ?)
Not familiar with the accounting and the situation there, so just wonder...


HK property companies are cheap as their property assets are valued at current (inflated) market prices. Factor in the probability of a correction and they're not as cheap as they appear.

Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)


But Henderson is a HK company. Marty Whitman basically said HK has good regulations to protect minority shareholders. Do you not agree?

Also according to Wikipedia, twice the owner tried to buyout the minority shareholders but failed to get the votes. Their glossy annual report and 10% annual increase in book value seems to show that the minority shareholders get a fair shake. no?

 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on February 12, 2014, 03:18:44 PM
I think the point Prevalou was trying to make was that much of the growth in book value has been the result of increasing property valuations, and that property values may or may not be in a bubble. Not that Henderson was in any way being less than forthright.....

cheers
Zorro
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: mcliu on February 12, 2014, 04:25:45 PM
I'm not familiar with the regulations in HK, but I'm speaking about controlling shareholder businesses in general.

If the controlling shareholder is not friendly towards the minority shareholders, while they may not try to steal the whole company, there's nothing preventing them from larger than necessary expenses (having a couple of corporate jets, etc..) Hence you have these discounts to NAV, which may not be unwarranted.

The properties are marked-to-market on their books as per IFRS, so you would see big fluctuations in book value depending on how their marking these properties. If you factor in the lack of control, poor governance, conglomerates running like family businesses, over-valued properties and weak asset allocation, the discount seems pretty rational. Obviously, there are some better conglomerates and some worse so there may be opportunities.

A quick question is if their property are really valued at current market price, or valued at the acquisition price many years ago (maybe in some cases ?)
Not familiar with the accounting and the situation there, so just wonder...


HK property companies are cheap as their property assets are valued at current (inflated) market prices. Factor in the probability of a correction and they're not as cheap as they appear.

Research In Motion/BlackBerry

I'm also trying to generate more cash to put to the side in case a buying opportunity arises. My average cost on BB right now is $11.

Haven't found anything else outside of EXOR and Henderson Land Development companies (which I think people should look closer at, especially Henderson).

I am just starting to look at Henderson Land, this HK company is ridiculous cheap. P/BV = 0.5x. Book value has grown around 10-20% EVERY year for the last decade..... does anyone own this baby?

I am still in the process of due diligence which involves just glossing over their 10K (or the ADR equivalent)


But Henderson is a HK company. Marty Whitman basically said HK has good regulations to protect minority shareholders. Do you not agree?

Also according to Wikipedia, twice the owner tried to buyout the minority shareholders but failed to get the votes. Their glossy annual report and 10% annual increase in book value seems to show that the minority shareholders get a fair shake. no?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on February 13, 2014, 02:45:43 AM
the point is that part of the book value growth is because of this possible overpricing. if the correction comes their long term results will not look so rosy. i find accounting for real estate outside the US to be really idiotic.

for example in finland we just got REITs here. the first one (that went public) keeps revaluing their properties, shows this as profit and pays for a dividend by selling the (overvalued in books) apartments for an accounting loss.

as long as they sell considerably less than they have, the ones that are getting their "values" bumped will more than make it look like a profitable business. meanwhile, people are going crazy over easy ways to invest in real estate, and of course dividend yields  ???

i'm not sure this is the case in HK, but when i looked at some of these i read that they value the properties to market and show this as profit. didn't check up on it, as it seems to be the case in most places.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: prevalou on February 13, 2014, 03:31:28 AM
another way to value investment properties, specially retail (marked to market in the balance sheet) is to look at the cap rate, considering space is scarce in HK and more and more chinese tourists visit the country.
Considering developpement properties valued at cost , the margins are so strong that even with a severe decrease in real estate prices, they will be ok. Moreover, some of thes properties are presold.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on February 13, 2014, 03:45:28 AM
generally developers who have a lot unsold newbuild inventory when the correction hits, have not done so well. also if shit really hits the fan, the buyers of the presold properties will back out if the cash hasn't changed hands yet. if there's debt, this is a recipe for destruction. if not, they can probably wait it out without losing too much money.

i was just trying to point out that one should probably not look at book value growth when looking at these after years and years of price appreciation. being lazy, i just shove these in the too hard pile.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on February 13, 2014, 06:42:13 AM
the point is that part of the book value growth is because of this possible overpricing. if the correction comes their long term results will not look so rosy. i find accounting for real estate outside the US to be really idiotic.

for example in finland we just got REITs here. the first one (that went public) keeps revaluing their properties, shows this as profit and pays for a dividend by selling the (overvalued in books) apartments for an accounting loss.

as long as they sell considerably less than they have, the ones that are getting their "values" bumped will more than make it look like a profitable business. meanwhile, people are going crazy over easy ways to invest in real estate, and of course dividend yields  ???

i'm not sure this is the case in HK, but when i looked at some of these i read that they value the properties to market and show this as profit. didn't check up on it, as it seems to be the case in most places.

Ya I am a bit unclear on this. I generally think when you have an unrealized gain it is NOT income but it does increase equity and is counted as comprehensive income. I mean it is ridiculous to count unrealize gains as income cos you have to pay taxes. But apparently that's how it is done in HK.

can someone shed some light on this to clear my confusion?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on February 13, 2014, 08:04:32 AM
Going back to the thread title just for a post :)

LRE
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on February 13, 2014, 08:22:06 AM
Added to LRE today and bought Willis Group
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sys on February 13, 2014, 10:59:23 AM
i've been trying to buy lcshf all morning.  even at about a 1% premium to lre, it won't fill.   >:(
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on February 13, 2014, 11:06:02 AM
i've been trying to buy lcshf all morning.  even at about a 1% premium to lre, it won't fill.   >:(


I had a GTC order for LCSHF and it was filled. The Bid-ask is wide and volume is thin. You might have to raise your price in order to fill.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sys on February 13, 2014, 11:14:24 AM
I had a GTC order for LCSHF and it was filled. The Bid-ask is wide and volume is thin. You might have to raise your price in order to fill.

i just raised it to a 1.5% premium.  i'm too cheap to feel good paying more than that.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on February 13, 2014, 11:55:54 AM
Telecom Argentina- TEO (ADR)

Averaging down..should be a fun ride!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on February 19, 2014, 01:44:19 PM
Lancashire, thanks for all the excellent discussion in that thread TWA, GIO, Ross et. al. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on February 19, 2014, 01:49:59 PM
GNCMA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on February 25, 2014, 07:47:39 AM
KMI and KMP. 

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: saltybit on February 25, 2014, 03:07:34 PM
KMI and KMP. 

Thanks
Lance

Unless you want dividend income, isn't KMR more attractive than KMP?
From slide 4 in Kinder Morgan's presentation http://www.kindermorgan.com/investor/presentations/Credit_Suisse_2014_Energy_Summit.pdf

Quote
— KMR shares are pari passu with KMP units (KMP closed at 76.01 today, KMR at 72.30)
— KMR dividend equal to KMP cash distribution, but paid in additional shares; effectively a dividend reinvestment program
— Like KMP units, KMR shares are tax efficient - but with simplified tax reporting (no K-1s, UBTI)
— Insiders prefer KMR
    Management has purchased KMR at a rate of ~3:1 vs. KMP, or almost 5:1 excluding one transaction
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on February 25, 2014, 03:55:04 PM
far OTM TSLA Leap calls to ensure that I live to fight another day  >:(
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 28, 2014, 09:55:49 AM
SPY October 2014 $185 strike puts, which are down 50% since the January volatility spike.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on February 28, 2014, 10:50:56 AM
KMI-WT
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on February 28, 2014, 11:11:48 AM
IRM

REIT conversion candidate waiting on an IRS PLR. The stock was ~$40 in early 2013 just prior to the IRS announcement that it would delay its PLR. Has bounced between $24 and $30 since then, and is down ~4% today to the low $27's.

Pro forma REIT dividend is $2.30, which is a ~8.5% yield at $27. At a 5% FV yield, the stock would trade at $46.

PiperJaffray provides a great overview of the issues the IRS is likely looking at - see attached.

A ruling is expected soon, and for anecdotal evidence, Lamar Advertising said a ruling is imminent for them.

EDIT:

I should add - IRM is spending almost $1 per share in REIT preparation costs this year, in capex and opex.

Also - this year IRM will pay out $500MM to $1B of accumulated earnings and profits in the form of a special dividend. The last one they paid out in late 2012 consisted of 80% stock and 20% cash.

Lastly - insiders bought aggressively in early 2013 after the stock tanked upon the IRS PLR delay.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 03, 2014, 08:03:34 AM
OGZPY (Gazprom). 

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 03, 2014, 09:40:01 AM
VOD

Trades for ~6X EBITDA. Bottom cycle margins, diversified, scale economics, low leverage + AT&T interest = likely solid premium take-out multiple. 8 to 9X perhaps? 7X worst case - 19% to 60% upside from here likely within a year.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 03, 2014, 09:44:09 AM
I wondered if that was the "english stock" Buffett was talking about this morning...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wellmont on March 03, 2014, 09:52:02 AM
KMI and KMP. 

Thanks
Lance

what's the deal here? is kmi the best kinder morgan to buy right now? thanks!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on March 03, 2014, 10:05:35 AM
I wondered if that was the "english stock" Buffett was talking about this morning...

Vodafone doesn't seem like his style in my opinion. Might just be more Tesco.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 03, 2014, 10:05:55 AM
Unless Buffett was talking about a Tedd/Todd VOD purchase, I can't imagine he was buying VOD.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on March 03, 2014, 10:35:23 AM
I think the resident bears will finally get their correction.

(http://a.fod4.com/images/user_photos/1162079/gun_width_600x.jpg)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on March 03, 2014, 11:35:26 AM
Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 03, 2014, 02:08:02 PM
Unless Buffett was talking about a Tedd/Todd VOD purchase, I can't imagine he was buying VOD.

It would be out of the box unless you view it as arbitrage, in which he has been known to partake.  BP would be a guess if he didn't already hold the xom...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on March 03, 2014, 02:22:25 PM
Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

Bought Lukoil. But not sure if I am investing or making a donation to Putin.

Vinod
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 03, 2014, 03:09:45 PM
But not sure if I am investing or making a donation to Putin.

Hahahahahah - to use Kravens favorite phrase, I LOLed at this one.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on March 03, 2014, 03:39:28 PM
Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

Bought Lukoil. But not sure if I am investing or making a donation to Putin.

Vinod

You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 03, 2014, 04:09:19 PM
Is anyone buying Gazprom or Lukoil? Is the sell off warranted? Does anyone see these events impacting these two large players long-term?

I've already had a small position in Gazprom from the last time it was these levels. Am considering adding to it or buying some Lukoil. Also beginning to research CEFs in this space to see if any can be had at sizable discounts.

Bought more SAN today. Second largest position behind Altius at this point.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on March 03, 2014, 05:53:42 PM
You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.

The way I see it there are two main risks

(1) Russian government confiscating Lukoil assets

(2) Russian government imposing restrictions on foreign holders of Russian businesses

Given that we have an owner operator who has the benefit of learning from Yukos, I would think risk #1 might be somewhat low. However, if there are financial sanctions and asset freezes imposed by west due to Ukraine situation, #2 may be a significant risk.

I do not think we can really assess these risks and we just need to manage it with position sizing.

Anyway you measure it, it is trading at about 4x average earnings of the last three years. These are all in and what could be considered pretty normal level of earnings - if oil prices hold. I think the above risks are more than priced in.

Vinod
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on March 03, 2014, 06:21:26 PM
You don't think Putin will harm this further one way or another? I was tempted as well.

The way I see it there are two main risks

(1) Russian government confiscating Lukoil assets

(2) Russian government imposing restrictions on foreign holders of Russian businesses

Given that we have an owner operator who has the benefit of learning from Yukos, I would think risk #1 might be somewhat low. However, if there are financial sanctions and asset freezes imposed by west due to Ukraine situation, #2 may be a significant risk.

I do not think we can really assess these risks and we just need to manage it with position sizing.

Anyway you measure it, it is trading at about 4x average earnings of the last three years. These are all in and what could be considered pretty normal level of earnings - if oil prices hold. I think the above risks are more than priced in.

Vinod

I tend to agree, I actually put in a bid today but was too low.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on March 04, 2014, 09:16:01 PM
Autos are still undervalued. I now own GM, Toyota, and Fiat.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on March 04, 2014, 09:21:25 PM
I am buying NevSun (NSU).  I think it is drastically undervalued, and will post excellent earnings these next few quarters.

I am also attempting to get more junior miners that are producing, cash flow positive, have net earnings and little to no debt.

Bargains are few & far between, but there are some to be had!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 05, 2014, 08:31:17 AM
Lukoil.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on March 06, 2014, 12:51:20 PM
Over the past couple months, the weakness in price in Bidvest, McCormick, Petsmart, and Kinder Morgan allowed me to go from 25% cash to fully invested. The majority was added to KMI which went from a 2% to 12% position. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: cwericb on March 06, 2014, 02:50:27 PM
Altius and a little Alderon.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 10, 2014, 06:49:02 AM
VOD

Combo of enhanced bid for Ono and AT&T comments causing weakness.

Ono bid appears expensive at 10X 2014E EBITDA. I'm comforted by the fact that Liberty Global finds the assets attractive, and VOD will be able to extract synergies via bundling with current Spanish offerings.

AT&T comments (see here: http://www.mobileworldlive.com/att-ceo-plays-hopes-vodafone-bid-report) are shenanigans. It takes years to invest in mobile networks, and now all a sudden AT&T is hesitant to invest in Europe b/c other operators have begun to move? Three months ago T thought Europe was attractive....
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 10, 2014, 07:21:57 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on March 10, 2014, 07:26:57 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

And half the board just went into panic mode selling everything not nailed down.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on March 10, 2014, 07:30:42 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

Hi Eric - how does this work in terms of sizing the hedge - do you look at your overall portfolio value; pick a percentage that you want to hedge - and buy enough puts where the value = the % of the portfolio that you want to hedge?     Thanks    Gary
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 10, 2014, 07:39:40 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

Hi Eric - how does this work in terms of sizing the hedge - do you look at your overall portfolio value; pick a percentage that you want to hedge - and buy enough puts where the value = the % of the portfolio that you want to hedge?     Thanks    Gary

I'm having a freakout at the moment.  There is no grand formula.  Just panic decision making.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on March 10, 2014, 07:51:40 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

Hi Eric - how does this work in terms of sizing the hedge - do you look at your overall portfolio value; pick a percentage that you want to hedge - and buy enough puts where the value = the % of the portfolio that you want to hedge?     Thanks    Gary

I'm having a freakout at the moment.  There is no grand formula.  Just panic decision making.

just calm down....    if everybody thinks a correction is just about to happen - chances are it won't happen.   that's just how it works.       Gary
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 10, 2014, 12:36:45 PM
$38 strike 2016 EEM puts.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on March 10, 2014, 01:00:18 PM
Sold out of NVS after holding a little over 2 years and replaced it with PKX <$64.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on March 10, 2014, 01:05:44 PM
Added to my Jan 2016 KMI $30 strike calls.  2014 dividend is expected to be $1.72 per year.  If it rises 8% a year for the next 2 years and the yield remains at 5%, we get a $40 stock and the $30 calls will go up 160% at expiry.  If the yield increases to 6%, I will still almost break even.

As a poster on the KMI thread mentioned, KMI has authorized another $100M of common/warrant repurchases:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/150630714000014?cik=1506307

However, per the 10K release last week, the company used the last $94M of the $250M authorization to buy back the commons.  Thus, perhaps the company signals the share price will not rise quickly.  There are 348M warrants outstanding @$1.80, or $626M market value for these warrants.


Btw, it's interesting to see a few posters entering market puts.  I am keeping a lot of dry powder too, hoping for an opportunity to buy hands-over-fist soon.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Shawn on March 10, 2014, 04:45:37 PM
Mostly the U.S. Bank TARP warrants.

In particular Bank of America Class A and the Wells Fargo ones.

I'd like to build a position in Rainmaker Entertainment though. I'm still in the phase of researching the company.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 10, 2014, 05:36:33 PM
PLUG weekly calls...just kidding!  It is getting crazy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on March 10, 2014, 05:47:47 PM
PLUG weekly calls...just kidding!  It is getting crazy.

Dude, I was looking at PLUG here recently since it was on a "most actives" list. I remember the dot com days that it was a high flyer and it brought some back some memories. haha.

It's up over 400% this year, over 4,600% (not a typo) over the past year. Craziness.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ZenaidaMacroura on March 10, 2014, 05:48:24 PM
Added to my Jan 2016 KMI $30 strike calls.  2014 dividend is expected to be $1.72 per year.  If it rises 8% a year for the next 2 years and the yield remains at 5%, we get a $40 stock and the $30 calls will go up 160% at expiry.  If the yield increases to 6%, I will still almost break even.

As a poster on the KMI thread mentioned, KMI has authorized another $100M of common/warrant repurchases:
https://www.bamsec.com/filing/150630714000014?cik=1506307

However, per the 10K release last week, the company used the last $94M of the $250M authorization to buy back the commons.  Thus, perhaps the company signals the share price will not rise quickly.  There are 348M warrants outstanding @$1.80, or $626M market value for these warrants.


Btw, it's interesting to see a few posters entering market puts.  I am keeping a lot of dry powder too, hoping for an opportunity to buy hands-over-fist soon.
Wait they backward adjust the calls for dividends?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on March 10, 2014, 06:38:04 PM

Wait they backward adjust the calls for dividends?

Nah,

Dividend $1.72 and compound that at 8% over 2 year is about $2 per share. If the yield of the stock is stays consistent at 5% (like it is now), that equates to a $40 per share stock price.

The Jan 2016 $30 calls are about $3.84. If the stock trades at $40, they'll be worth $10 (or more depending on time). That's about 160% return.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on March 10, 2014, 08:43:40 PM
Shorted FB  :( Can't find much to buy...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on March 10, 2014, 09:29:35 PM

Wait they backward adjust the calls for dividends?

Nah,

Dividend $1.72 and compound that at 8% over 2 year is about $2 per share. If the yield of the stock is stays consistent at 5% (like it is now), that equates to a $40 per share stock price.

The Jan 2016 $30 calls are about $3.84. If the stock trades at $40, they'll be worth $10 (or more depending on time). That's about 160% return.

Thanks for clarifying for me. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 11, 2014, 06:42:14 AM
$120 strike 2016 IWM puts.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on March 11, 2014, 06:53:19 AM
Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

Today I bought $120 strike 2016 IWM puts.  Maybe that will help me calm down.

And half the board just went into panic mode selling everything not nailed down.

$120 strike 2016 IWM puts.

Thanks,
Lance


 ;D


I bought more CRM puts a few days ago tho, all OTM long duration.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on March 11, 2014, 07:30:02 AM

Wait they backward adjust the calls for dividends?

Nah,

Dividend $1.72 and compound that at 8% over 2 year is about $2 per share. If the yield of the stock is stays consistent at 5% (like it is now), that equates to a $40 per share stock price.

The Jan 2016 $30 calls are about $3.84. If the stock trades at $40, they'll be worth $10 (or more depending on time). That's about 160% return.

Thanks for clarifying for me. :)

No problem man. haha
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on March 11, 2014, 07:44:22 AM
Anybody buying GCI?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on March 11, 2014, 10:55:06 AM
Thinking about adding GCI and buying ACS again, but I would have to sale something, because I am all in...mulling over saling MSFT.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: blainehodder on March 11, 2014, 11:24:33 AM
Bought OGZPY and RSX calls. 

Crazy dumping on ALSK and GNCMA. Lather, rinse, repeat seems like a reasonable idea.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 11, 2014, 07:35:05 PM
Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ItsAValueTrap on March 11, 2014, 07:49:17 PM
Shorted FB  :( Can't find much to buy...

Geez.  While I am shorting a bunch of stocks and trade against other people on this board (ATPG, PRXI, SD, etc.)... I would never short Facebook.  Facebook and Google advertising works and is extremely compelling to advertisers.  Affiliate marketer run blogs where they talk about how much money they make.  Some of them advertise on Facebook and make a lot of money on it.

On a cash flow basis, Facebook doesn't look overvalued at all.  I wish you the best of luck on your short.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: hyten1 on March 11, 2014, 08:00:54 PM
+1  I like

Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on March 11, 2014, 08:07:09 PM
Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.

How are you buying depressed stocks w/o realizing profits on the IWM short? Are you assuming some unencumbered cash?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 11, 2014, 08:17:12 PM
Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.

How are you buying depressed stocks w/o realizing profits on the IWM short? Are you assuming some unencumbered cash?

I have synthetically unencumbered cash.  My BAC puts are $17 strike and $15 strike.  I ditched all the $12s.

Plus, don't forget that when I short it I will get a big slug of cash (I'm selling some IWM that I don't own, and they pay me cash for that).  I can then spend that cash after the market has dropped.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on March 11, 2014, 09:00:40 PM
Shorted FB  :( Can't find much to buy...

Geez.  While I am shorting a bunch of stocks and trade against other people on this board (ATPG, PRXI, SD, etc.)... I would never short Facebook.  Facebook and Google advertising works and is extremely compelling to advertisers.  Affiliate marketer run blogs where they talk about how much money they make.  Some of them advertise on Facebook and make a lot of money on it.

On a cash flow basis, Facebook doesn't look overvalued at all.  I wish you the best of luck on your short.


I was long Facebook earlier as a very small position, and managed to make a decent amount of money of that very speculative bet, so I booked gains and went short, so  If I take a 100% loss on the short I'll be close to break even. Most of my shorts are small positions anyway.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: moody202 on March 12, 2014, 03:58:44 AM
Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.

Don't you pay capital gains when you eventually sell the depressed stock for gain?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: peter1234 on March 12, 2014, 09:05:18 AM
Slightly off topic: A free Kindle eBook  ;)

Gems from Warren Buffett - Wit and Wisdom from 34 Years of Letters to Shareholders [Kindle Edition]

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/ASIN/B008G6S37M
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: moustachio on March 13, 2014, 10:14:46 AM
I have bought some NROM today since it is down after earnings. Call me crazy, but I actually believe that the exceptionally bad weather has negatively impacted a lot of businesses temporarily...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on March 13, 2014, 10:48:59 AM
Tactical error...

I need to change that trade.

I bought IWM puts.... if those become hugely profitable at expiry, I'll have to take a painful tax hit.

Instead, I need to rework the trade by dumping those puts, shorting IWM directly, and purchasing calls to hedge.  That way, I can keep the short position open forever without a tax consequence. 

Let's say for example the market drops 50% and I want to dump the hedge.  Well, I don't want to dump the hedge literally because I would be stuck paying the capital gain.  Instead, I should just keep the IWM short position open (at a large gain) and buy an offsetting amount of depressed stocks.  Then over time the gain on the IWM short will unwind and I'll have an offsetting gain on the stocks I purchased.

No realized gains that way.  Keep the assets for myself.

Don't you pay capital gains when you eventually sell the depressed stock for gain?

Well, take right now for example.  I have BAC shares that have a big gain -- but I'm not selling them.  Instead, I hedged.  The cost of the puts is minor relative to the earnings power of the shares. 

Also, the capital gains are forgiven when the marriage community is dissolved (if either I die or my wife does).  So it's sort of like a life insurance policy in a way -- the family gets relieved of a big tax liability.  Call it a "death benefit".

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on March 13, 2014, 11:28:13 AM
On a cash flow basis, Facebook doesn't look overvalued at all.

If you annualize the last quarter they trade at 36x cash flow and 59x free cash flow. Then add another 9% dilution from Whatsapp.

Not crazy, but clearly there is significant growth baked into the price.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on March 13, 2014, 12:14:55 PM
@Peter1234

Thanks for the book URL...for those unfortunate folks with an ipad...do you see a PDF version and or can it be saved as one if it is free?

Actually NM. I see there is a Kindle App for the ipad. Downloaded it and the book and all is fun!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 13, 2014, 12:40:00 PM
KMI @ 31.02, 5% Position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on March 13, 2014, 01:11:12 PM

I saw HFNSA @ 120 today horray..... then oh wait..... I realize that was me adding to my position
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DTEJD1997 on March 14, 2014, 09:53:26 AM
I continue to buy junior producing miners.

I managed to get some Rambler Metals!  Stock is kind of thinly traded...

They have a strong and improving balance sheet, having recently paid almost all of their debt.

They have strong cash flow.

They have a good mine, in the relatively stable country of Canada.

Anybody else in this one, or know anything about it?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 14, 2014, 10:31:30 AM
Couldn`t stop myself from being greedy. Sold JPM, dipped a bit into margin and bought more KMI @ 31.6$. Its now my second largest holding at 9%.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on March 14, 2014, 11:04:08 AM
Couldn`t stop myself from being greedy. Sold JPM, dipped a bit into margin and bought more KMI @ 31.6$. Its now my second largest holding at 9%.

So you're the one pushing the stock up....
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 14, 2014, 11:16:26 AM
Couldn`t stop myself from being greedy. Sold JPM, dipped a bit into margin and bought more KMI @ 31.6$. Its now my second largest holding at 9%.

So you're the one pushing the stock up....

Sorry.  ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on March 14, 2014, 12:38:42 PM
Couldn`t stop myself from being greedy. Sold JPM, dipped a bit into margin and bought more KMI @ 31.6$. Its now my second largest holding at 9%.


I added to KMI today as well.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Orange on March 14, 2014, 12:57:56 PM
NE, RIG, DO, SDRL, ESV basket.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 17, 2014, 07:39:17 AM
Sold TEVA and DE, bought more KMI and Lukoy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 17, 2014, 07:40:03 AM
SPY October $186 puts
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on March 17, 2014, 08:47:28 AM
KMI 30 Jan 2016 LEAPS.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 21, 2014, 09:10:11 AM
SPY October $187 puts

RWM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 21, 2014, 09:49:35 AM
I don`t know if it was prudent, but i had to buy Bank of China (BACHY) today. Reduced my KMI holding back to where it should be.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 24, 2014, 09:44:40 AM
VOD

Combo of enhanced bid for Ono and AT&T comments causing weakness.

Ono bid appears expensive at 10X 2014E EBITDA. I'm comforted by the fact that Liberty Global finds the assets attractive, and VOD will be able to extract synergies via bundling with current Spanish offerings.

AT&T comments (see here: http://www.mobileworldlive.com/att-ceo-plays-hopes-vodafone-bid-report) are shenanigans. It takes years to invest in mobile networks, and now all a sudden AT&T is hesitant to invest in Europe b/c other operators have begun to move? Three months ago T thought Europe was attractive....

I'm getting interested in this.  I like the moves they are making, and they sort of give me comfort that they would rationally evaluate any interest from potential acquirers.  Seems like worst case scenario, you get paid to wait until EM growth kicks in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on March 24, 2014, 10:00:04 AM
Bought AMB Financial (AMFC).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 24, 2014, 12:52:04 PM
I wrote puts on AIG this morning.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on March 24, 2014, 01:04:42 PM
I wrote puts on AIG this morning.

Thanks,
Lance

What puts did your write?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 24, 2014, 01:21:14 PM
April 4 $50 strikes.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JoelS on March 24, 2014, 02:10:03 PM
Bought Charter Communications
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: moody202 on March 24, 2014, 07:15:23 PM
BAC $18 August Calls
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: moody202 on March 24, 2014, 07:18:01 PM
April 4 $50 strikes.
Just curious what your thought process is with the puts!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 24, 2014, 07:28:44 PM
Hi moody202 - no investment thesis or any interesting insight here.  That date coincides with the $52.50 AIG calls I sold against shares I purchased some time ago.  If they are put to me at $50 I will sell calls on them, along with the expiring $52.50 calls (assuming they are not called away) at the $50 strike price in May. 

I sell puts and calls on AIG quite a bit.  The premiums are decent and AIG sort of moves back and forth around $50.  Not too exciting but it scratches my urge to do something.   

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Mikenhe on March 25, 2014, 07:06:03 AM
BP - for the same price that I sold them for 3 years ago...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 26, 2014, 06:16:51 AM
I'll be buying more RWM today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: turar on March 26, 2014, 12:23:19 PM
I'll be buying more RWM today.
Out of curiosity, why not short IWM instead?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 26, 2014, 04:24:33 PM
In use it in accounts I'm unable to short in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on March 26, 2014, 04:42:52 PM

ERUS (Russia ETF)   :P
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: eclecticvalue on March 27, 2014, 11:45:52 AM
Bought Gencorp
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on March 27, 2014, 12:05:12 PM
TEO- Telecom Argentina

Worth at least 50% more than where it is trading today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 28, 2014, 12:03:43 PM
I wrote puts on AIG this morning.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on March 29, 2014, 06:35:03 PM
Great post on the extreme equity sentiment exhibited by investors right now:

http://macronomy.blogspot.com/2014/03/guest-post-equities-frothy-sentiment.html?m=1
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on March 31, 2014, 10:35:52 AM
Completed my buys of RSXJ today. Bought kholy and rsxj last week and hoped to complete it this week, but kholy has run away. I am now at nearly 25% allocation to emerging market, with 10% russia and 10% china.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on March 31, 2014, 11:31:38 AM
CKI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 31, 2014, 04:51:30 PM
I sold calls against my KMI shares this morning.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on March 31, 2014, 05:36:40 PM
CKI

Very very interesting, I am reading their AR 2013... thanks
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 03, 2014, 08:43:53 PM
NWH.ASX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thefatbaboon on April 04, 2014, 11:33:29 AM
LMCA, THRX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rainman on April 04, 2014, 11:54:56 AM
LRE.L (LCSHF)
VRX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 04, 2014, 12:35:23 PM
Started a small position in Lab Corp. - LH
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on April 04, 2014, 01:30:29 PM
more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and  some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more.  ;)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 04, 2014, 02:55:07 PM
LMCA, THRX

Confirmation bias endorphins kicking in! I'm stalking THRX, probably being greedy and will miss it (like i did with freaking K); but hoping to get it in the mid 20's.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on April 04, 2014, 04:27:58 PM
more GNCMA (actually trade around this position a bit because it is so large) and  some WDAY short term options at opening. Options already a double but looking for a tad bit more.  ;)

I too got some GNCMA & AIQ - my thought was those were sold off as part of the NASDAQ going on sale today....

HOWEVER - I am not sure I am comfortable enough to have a big position in GNCMA -  just looking at the 10 year chart I could just see that not a lot of value has been created, although that is not to say may be we are at the point where a lot of value could be realized.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Gamecock-YT on April 04, 2014, 04:32:44 PM
more GNCMA

ditto, I thought it was a flash crash when I saw it drop 5%.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stylized_fact on April 04, 2014, 05:08:44 PM
LRM.L http://quinzedix.blogspot.com/2013/10/lombard-risk-management-enterprise.html
added to GNCMA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jwfm1985 on April 05, 2014, 02:21:01 PM
Started a small position in Lab Corp. - LH

Ross,

Been thinking about LH - I love the industry. Question though, why LH over Quest?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on April 05, 2014, 07:58:45 PM
Avangardco
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thefatbaboon on April 06, 2014, 06:59:49 AM
LMCA, THRX

Confirmation bias endorphins kicking in! I'm stalking THRX, probably being greedy and will miss it (like i did with freaking K); but hoping to get it in the mid 20's.

My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 06, 2014, 07:40:23 AM
THRX seems a bit too complicated for me.   At the high level it's an amazing story, you have Seth Klarman and GSK holding huge positions.  GSK will be paying out royalties to THRX so they know the business better than anyone.   Both parties have purchased shares at higher prices.   You also have a spinoff to potentially unlock some value.   So at that 50,000 ft level it looks great.

However, when you dig into the sales estimates for the COPD drugs they are all over the map.   Peak sales from $1B to $4B.   At $4B it's a steal and will probably double or more, it will go down to the teens at $1B.   So for someone outside of the sector it is a tough call.  I guess, in either scenario it doesn't seem likely to be a 0, maybe a 50% loss assuming something doesn't go horribly wrong with the drugs.

It seems you basically just have to trust the major holders to buy into it.  Honestly that's probably as good a thesis as any but I generally like to have a better feel for the fundamentals.   Am I missing anything?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 06, 2014, 08:08:11 AM
My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

How do you come to that number? I can only "see" that it has a high chance of falling further, but i don`t "see" yet how far. At 20 there is a massive support, but that doesn`t mean it drops that low.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thefatbaboon on April 06, 2014, 09:33:03 AM
My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

How do you come to that number? I can only "see" that it has a high chance of falling further, but i don`t "see" yet how far. At 20 there is a massive support, but that doesn`t mean it drops that low.

I pulled the number out of my ass - where i find most of my best charting insights.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 07, 2014, 06:45:25 AM
haha!  I'm trying to get it at a valuation that based on my back of the envelope, uncle carl style analysis gives me a ~50% return to Elan's valuation of the royalty co.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 07, 2014, 07:12:52 AM
Started a small position in Lab Corp. - LH

Ross,

Been thinking about LH - I love the industry. Question though, why LH over Quest?

jwfm,

The short answer is management at LH is better than DGX. Quest and LH both grow through acquisition but Quest has proven again and again to destroy value when they acquire. Quest seems to take 1-2 years to fully digest a new lab (they have nothing to show for a couple big acquisitions) where LH does the same in 1-2 quarters. I think both companies are in a fantastic business. Together, they have the same kind of moat UPS, MSFT, or even KO possess. Long term, I think North American demographics and universal health care are going to provide a nice tail wind for both companies.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on April 07, 2014, 08:08:48 AM
Started a small position in Lab Corp. - LH

Ross,

Been thinking about LH - I love the industry. Question though, why LH over Quest?

jwfm,

The short answer is management at LH is better than DGX. Quest and LH both grow through acquisition but Quest has proven again and again to destroy value when they acquire. Quest seems to take 1-2 years to fully digest a new lab (they have nothing to show for a couple big acquisitions) where LH does the same in 1-2 quarters. I think both companies are in a fantastic business. Together, they have the same kind of moat UPS, MSFT, or even KO possess. Long term, I think North American demographics and universal health care are going to provide a nice tail wind for both companies.

Ross,

Not that I think you are wrong, but I always look for the possible mistake in my thinking before investing. So let me go all Charlie Munger on you for a moment.  What if a company like Opko Health actually manages to come up with a diagnostic test that can be done in your doctor's office (something they are working on) based on a simple blood test?  What about the impact of government payment reductions? LH stated that this cost them over $100 million in 2013 alone? 

Looking forward to your comments as the idea does look interesting.....

cheers
Zorro
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 07, 2014, 10:22:29 AM
Started a small position in Lab Corp. - LH

Ross,

Been thinking about LH - I love the industry. Question though, why LH over Quest?

jwfm,

The short answer is management at LH is better than DGX. Quest and LH both grow through acquisition but Quest has proven again and again to destroy value when they acquire. Quest seems to take 1-2 years to fully digest a new lab (they have nothing to show for a couple big acquisitions) where LH does the same in 1-2 quarters. I think both companies are in a fantastic business. Together, they have the same kind of moat UPS, MSFT, or even KO possess. Long term, I think North American demographics and universal health care are going to provide a nice tail wind for both companies.

Ross,

Not that I think you are wrong, but I always look for the possible mistake in my thinking before investing. So let me go all Charlie Munger on you for a moment.  What if a company like Opko Health actually manages to come up with a diagnostic test that can be done in your doctor's office (something they are working on) based on a simple blood test?  What about the impact of government payment reductions? LH stated that this cost them over $100 million in 2013 alone? 

Looking forward to your comments as the idea does look interesting.....

cheers
Zorro

Zorro,

I'll hit the government reductions first. The Midcare/caid acutually increased reimbursement 1% last year. LH lost money on routine standard tests that were moved onto the governments "not approved list". To give an analogy; there where 10 types of tests approved and reimbursed at $100 in 2012. In 2013, doctors ordered the same tests, LH performed the testing and sent the bill to the government. The government, in turn, decided in Q4 of 13 that 2 of the 10 tests were no longer covered and rather than reimbursing LH sent bills to individuals on medicare. (LH will have very limited success collecting these debts) The remaining 8 tests were reimbursed at $101 each.

Management stated that they will simply abandon these tests billed to medicare in the future and stated that this is a temporary problem. Once doctors start getting sued when patients suffer because they are unable to get routine and best practice testing reimbursed; the government will change course. Until then, LH will not be giving any more free testing.
 
HR 4015 passed the house on the 14th of March (this was not expected). This allows Medicare to reimburse doctors and labs at a rate greater than sustainable growth rate (SGR) in the future; meaning LH should actually pick up revenue growth from the government abandoning SGR @ 1% per year to something closer to YoY cost of care inflation - roughly 4%.

Regarding being Charlie Mungered on the moat. I tend to think of moats as being sustainable if they can be expanded while under siege. The testing business is a technology arms race at its heart and technology always gets more and more complex as it matures. Opko Health may design a great real time test that replaces an offering by LH, but what about LH's 500 other offerings, or the new relatively complex genomics testing they are rolling out? Everyone expects new technology to replace existing technology, but in most cases, there is room for both. I.E. laptops and smartphones, SSD and HDD, credit cards and mobile payment. We are taking a pretty big leap to assign risk to a technology that a company may develop that may be an acceptable replacement for a current product that may be adopted by the medical community at large.   

I learned my lesson with inverting investments too much and tearing down moats based on new technology. A few years ago, I could have bought WDC at $23 but I didn't because I was convinced SSD would replace WDC's HDDs. Looking back on it, I missed out on a 400% gain and a position in a consistently growing company with a sustainable competitive advantage as part of the data storage duopoly.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on April 07, 2014, 10:58:50 AM
Ross,

Thanks for your response! You have given me a great deal to think about (and another 10K to read!!) as I can't really find a flaw in your analysis. 

 :D

cheers
Zorro
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: menlo on April 07, 2014, 11:41:31 AM
RE: LH and DGX, this company http://www.wired.com/2014/02/elizabeth-holmes-theranos/ (http://www.wired.com/2014/02/elizabeth-holmes-theranos/) might be a competitor (I don't know the industry).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 07, 2014, 07:16:02 PM
VRX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 07, 2014, 08:27:17 PM
My amazing charting skills suggest that it should at least dip to 26  ;D

How do you come to that number? I can only "see" that it has a high chance of falling further, but i don`t "see" yet how far. At 20 there is a massive support, but that doesn`t mean it drops that low.

After looking at this again, it has now a high chance of turning when the daily high of yesterday is beaten. But probably its best to ignore me with so much stupid shit that i post. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on April 08, 2014, 08:41:30 AM
woops wrong topic

wheres that thread where you post your portfolio lol
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on April 08, 2014, 08:59:13 AM
I think it's called current holdings... but if you search I suspect many hits will come out! just state it here is fine I think... cheers Gary
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on April 08, 2014, 09:08:03 AM
K here goes:

Not sure about sizing

portfolio   
SNMX – Senomyx   6,50%
ACW – Accuride   4,00%
GNCMA – General communications   6,00%
DAP.U – Xpel tech   6,00%
0184 – Keck Seng investments   6,00%
OUTR – Outerwall   6,00%
GPIV33 – GP investments   5,00%
XON – Intrexon    1,50%
EHL – Emeco holdings   6,00%
LUKOY – Luke oil   4,00%
LRM – Lombard risk   4,00%
AMNL – Applied minerals   2,00%
PIH – Property insurance   3,00%
FIAT – Fiat   3,00%
   
   63,00%


Average upside is like 300% or something. Very mixed portfolio. Downside is limited in most cases by assets or by bad things being priced in mostly, and with the speculative ideas, insiders have alot more to lose then me. The idea that i really like best is Senomyx. I have a hard time killing that one, insiders absolutley love it (putting most of their networth while in SNMX case not even overly promoting it) and it just looks like the market is really badly mispricing that one. Usually with that amount of upside, the products arent approved or not even ready to manufacture yet. But here they already have all that, AND they have already made deals with the people who will use it lol. Maybe i willl add 1-2% more there.

 Curious what will happen in the next few years. Going to be very interesting to sweat this out. First year where i will have more then half of my money in stocks.

I want to be 75% invested tho. I think i should add to some of those ideas, but not sure. Got some reading to do :) 

Maybe i did focus a bit too much on upside tho. OUTR might be risky, Lombard is risky, adn there are 3 speculative ideas in there for almost 10% that are not making money but have huge potential upside.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on April 08, 2014, 09:34:57 AM
I wrote puts on AIG and sold calls against shares I own.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on April 11, 2014, 10:08:23 AM
Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position.  I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on April 11, 2014, 10:11:22 AM
Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position.  I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.

I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on April 11, 2014, 10:18:59 AM
"I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe."

I thought bac would disappoint as well but I also thought citi would pass three stress tests when I saw them 160 basis higher than bac on stressed tier 1 but we all know how great that decision of was mine.

This is a humbling business.
I have new appreciation for Buffett always looking for the sure thing.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on April 11, 2014, 01:11:12 PM
Got out of the 2015 BAC calls a while ago and now partially rolling over to a 2016 $12 position.  I think the $20B market cap decline relative to its recent high is excessive vs. 1) its new legal costs (credit card settlement, etc) and 2) lower than expected capital return to shareholders.

I noted many times that the capital return would likely disappoint and be low.  My views on this were hissed by many of the true believers on the board.  People believe what they want to believe.

The capital return was pretty much maximized I felt.  At least, based on what was left to return after the Fed stress test dictated how much they would need to hold onto to stay above the minimums in their scenario.  The part that I didn't expect was how little would be left to return in the stress scenario.  The Fed didn't seem to have any problem letting them return all of the excess -- there just wasn't much "excess".

The Fed stress test is sort of a back-door means of raising capital levels well above what the B3 guidelines allow.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Spekulatius on April 12, 2014, 09:28:36 PM
At 5$/share, buying back stock would have done wonders for BAC, at current valuations, I think they are better off paying some dividends. BAC trades at almost the same price/tangible ratio than JPM and JPM is arguable a much better managed bank.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on April 14, 2014, 07:51:56 AM
RWM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: blainehodder on April 14, 2014, 11:52:41 AM
JPM warrants.

JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do.


-TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS

-TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses

-Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased.

-Pruning the loser businesses.

-Fastest growing deposits.

-Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize"

I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on April 14, 2014, 01:40:32 PM
ADV - Alderon Iron Ore
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on April 14, 2014, 08:31:13 PM
K here goes:

Not sure about sizing

portfolio   
SNMX – Senomyx   6,50%
ACW – Accuride   4,00%
GNCMA – General communications   6,00%
DAP.U – Xpel tech   6,00%
0184 – Keck Seng investments   6,00%
OUTR – Outerwall   6,00%
GPIV33 – GP investments   5,00%
XON – Intrexon    1,50%
EHL – Emeco holdings   6,00%
LUKOY – Luke oil   4,00%
LRM – Lombard risk   4,00%
AMNL – Applied minerals   2,00%
PIH – Property insurance   3,00%
FIAT – Fiat   3,00%
   
   63,00%


Average upside is like 300% or something. Very mixed portfolio. Downside is limited in most cases by assets or by bad things being priced in mostly, and with the speculative ideas, insiders have alot more to lose then me. The idea that i really like best is Senomyx. I have a hard time killing that one, insiders absolutley love it (putting most of their networth while in SNMX case not even overly promoting it) and it just looks like the market is really badly mispricing that one. Usually with that amount of upside, the products arent approved or not even ready to manufacture yet. But here they already have all that, AND they have already made deals with the people who will use it lol. Maybe i willl add 1-2% more there.

 Curious what will happen in the next few years. Going to be very interesting to sweat this out. First year where i will have more then half of my money in stocks.

I want to be 75% invested tho. I think i should add to some of those ideas, but not sure. Got some reading to do :) 

Maybe i did focus a bit too much on upside tho. OUTR might be risky, Lombard is risky, adn there are 3 speculative ideas in there for almost 10% that are not making money but have huge potential upside.

hi yadayada, I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

thanks
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on April 15, 2014, 03:18:40 AM
AIQ, altius, alderon, GM, Sberbank, Horsehead, BYD, RJET, Sprint, Clarke
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on April 15, 2014, 09:59:31 AM
Continuing to buy the RWM dips - bought more on this morning's market pop.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: nkp007 on April 15, 2014, 10:01:18 AM
My dignity.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longlake95 on April 15, 2014, 10:28:27 AM
GM

LL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on April 15, 2014, 10:38:14 AM
I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints.

I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market.

yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger.

And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.

Also making Lombard risk bigger to  like 8% instead of 4%.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rainman on April 15, 2014, 10:56:57 AM
I am always trying to get ideas from others' portfolio, but you are really mad about SNMX? why? I just downloaded their 10K and they are losing money, do I have the right company? Why is it so good?

I'm invested in this, but it's more of a bet on whether the product works as advertised. If it does and there are very few limitations to its application, then it should be an attractive product to the food&beverage industry (use less sweetener without compromising taste? also, potential cost savings? sounds pretty sweet!). The VIC post lays out the investment case very well. It's a long one. There's also good discussion on their message board. I think the author's reasoning makes a lot of sense, assuming the products work. If they don't work as advertised, then I'd be concerned about the counterpoints.

I also really like this idea because of the similarities with past superstocks: the operating leverage, returns on capital, barriers to entry, competitive advantages, large addressable market.

yeah i think only a few % is best so far. But i kinda want to make it bigger to like 8-9%. Just looks like a high probability of a multibagger.

And i scratched intrexon from that list. And would make PIH (the insurance one) bigger. read here why:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2139333-1347-property-insurance-holdings-an-ipo-left-for-dead-with-upside-of-50-percentminus-100-percent?isDirectRoadblock=false&uprof=45

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.

Also making Lombard risk bigger to  like 8% instead of 4%.

Can you share your point of XON ?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on April 15, 2014, 11:39:00 AM
well thats the thing, i know very little.

The bull case now is that some smart hedgefunds bought in (like einhorn). The guy who funded a good part, and most of his own money, has a stellar track record in  biotech. And it is suposed to revolutionize how drugs work. And lots of very smart people involved in general. And if it works out it will be a many billion$ stock.

 But it just feels like im way outside of my circle of competence here. And there are better ideas out there i think.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on April 15, 2014, 12:00:57 PM
I bought DWCH to cover my short.

Einhorn is probably making good money on the short side right now - might want to buy more GLRE.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kiltacular on April 15, 2014, 08:16:18 PM
JPM warrants.

JPM seems like a fantastic deal at these levels if Jamie Dimon is even close in his assumptions of return on TBPS. I guess the market doesn't believe him. I do.


-TBPS of 40.82 x 15% ROTCE = 6.12 EPS

-TBPS increased at 12%/yr since 05, no dip in crisis, no dip from settlements, no dip from Whale losses

-Maintained 15% ROTCE as capital requirements have increased.

-Pruning the loser businesses.

-Fastest growing deposits.

-Uptick of 6B if interests rates "normalize"

I hope they are executing on the buybacks right now in a big way.

I agree on JPM looking good here.

Anecdote:
I've had occasion to deal with sales and back-office of 3 of the "big banks" in the last 2 years and JPM is in a class by itself on both fronts.  It is a minor data point and could just be coincidence of whom I dealt with.  Plus, JPM had me sign 10 times the disclaimers, etc. and has the strongest internet security in my experience and the best banking features of the three.  Just thought I'd throw it in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bargainman on April 15, 2014, 08:22:05 PM

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.


can you please expand on this?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on April 17, 2014, 09:55:04 AM
Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 17, 2014, 11:38:03 AM
 
Sold 40% of my INTC (which i had been holding since <$20) @ $27 and bought CTRX @ $39.50 with the proceeds.

I have never heard of CTRX before but a quick glance shows it has been growing like a weed and has got whacked lately due to lower 2014 estimates.  Anything you can share on this one?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on April 17, 2014, 12:43:08 PM
CTRX is the third largest Pharmacy benefit management (PBM) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmacy_benefit_management which came out of a merger between two smaller ones last year. Express Scripts (ESRX) and CVS Caremark (CVS). PBMs are the intermediary between pharmaceutical benefit payers and their members. The primary moat factor in PBM in scale because PBMs make money on the spread and can negotiate with those selling the drugs. ESRX and CVS are both significantly bigger than CTRX. This sector is growing significantly driven by the changes in the healthcare system in the US and I was interested in ESRX in the end of 2013 but too slow to pull the trigger and the prices rose beyond what I was willing to pay. Additionally STRX recently closed a 10-year contract with Signa which is expected to add $0.50 per share starting in 2015.

This is not a (pure) value investment as growth is in fact needed to warrant the current price.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on April 17, 2014, 12:53:47 PM

V interesting idea that doesnt seem noticed in the corner of the market. With 100% upside and a catalyst of 1 year.


can you please expand on this?
check out the SA article i posted. THey explain it pretty well. Or read their prospectus and presentation and in the thread I made about them there is a nice primer on the insurance industry.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 17, 2014, 03:34:40 PM
I am slightly, very slightly, familiar with PBM having done a bit of research on ESRX as well.  I am just wondering what advantage CTRX would have if they are the smallest and thus don't have scale? 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: zuokk on April 17, 2014, 06:42:26 PM
Being buying GWR on and off for a couple of week.  Anyone else look into this?  Pretty rare to find a defensive stock trading at such a discount to book.  What do you guys think?  Am I missing something?

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/gwr-to-global-water-resources/

Thanks!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 21, 2014, 09:21:23 AM
LUK
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on April 21, 2014, 12:34:21 PM
Bought some MKL and OXY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on April 21, 2014, 12:43:45 PM
Bought some LMCA on Friday. 

Anybody buying any BAC common or KMI warrants?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on April 21, 2014, 01:06:09 PM
Was trying to buy an apartment in west Vancouver but the seller wanted $20k extra so I had to let the deal collapse. :(
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on April 21, 2014, 01:57:26 PM
Was trying to buy an apartment in west Vancouver but the seller wanted $20k extra so I had to let the deal collapse. :(

how much $
how many sq ft?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: blainehodder on April 28, 2014, 06:53:24 AM
Buying BAC this morning.  -5.3% seems crazy high for a revised cap ratio of 21 bps.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Danger Zone on April 28, 2014, 07:11:09 AM
Buying GLBS - Globus Maritime. Great uppside potential and downside protection. If the Baltic Dry Index remains depressed they should be able to keep paying of their debt, and if it recovers to higher levels their profits will skyrocket.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 28, 2014, 09:23:28 AM
Added to my position in WSTG @ 16$.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on April 28, 2014, 09:27:23 AM
Buying BAC this morning.  -5.3% seems crazy high for a revised cap ratio of 21 bps.

+1
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: crastogi on April 28, 2014, 07:49:42 PM
Added to my position in WSTG @ 16$.

Hi frommi - what is your thesis on this?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Myth465 on April 28, 2014, 09:04:23 PM
Bought Nighthawk energy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 28, 2014, 09:49:00 PM
Added to my position in WSTG @ 16$.

Hi frommi - what is your thesis on this?

It looked cheap to me, is growing and pays a healthy dividend. I first bought this at 13 and sold 30% @23, thats the part i just rebought because it got hammered pretty hard without reason in the last two weeks. My fair value was around 25$.
Its possible that the business model sucks and will be killed in the future, but its not visible in the numbers and i will only sell when i see it there. I think it popped up in a magic formula screener.
But i have to admit that i feel really bad for not selling the position completly at 23 and than forgetting about it. Right now i am pretty feared that it collapses completly perhaps thats the reason i bought more. :o
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on April 29, 2014, 11:24:40 AM
ALS.TO
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on April 29, 2014, 12:16:49 PM
OIBR
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: saltybit on April 29, 2014, 12:54:20 PM
ASPS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Aberhound on April 29, 2014, 12:59:12 PM
Buying BAC this morning.  -5.3% seems crazy high for a revised cap ratio of 21 bps.

+1

+1
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: alertmeipp on April 29, 2014, 09:11:37 PM
OIBR

Nice timing, didn't expect it to price this low.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on April 30, 2014, 04:36:06 AM
OIBR

Nice timing, didn't expect it to price this low.

Niether did I and I bought a full position all at once  :-\
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on May 02, 2014, 12:09:06 PM
I don`t know if this was a great idea, but i just bought a lottery ticket. I bought BP 52$ Calls for 0.04 that end on friday next week. When BP rises by 8-10% this is a 100 bagger which is possible when it breaks out through its february top next week. Slowly my old demons are coming through again, but i found this a good risk/reward scenario.
Anybody out there who likes to punch me in the face for throwing my money away gambling?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: racemize on May 02, 2014, 12:11:05 PM
just bought some more clarke.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on May 02, 2014, 12:18:34 PM
I don`t know if this was a great idea, but i just bought a lottery ticket. I bought BP 52$ Calls for 0.04 that end on friday next week. When BP rises by 8-10% this is a 100 bagger which is possible when it breaks out through its february top next week. Slowly my old demons are coming through again, but i found this a good risk/reward scenario.
Anybody out there who likes to punch me in the face for throwing my money away gambling?

The NYSE is the world's largest casino, we're all gambling in a roughly zero-sum game, but which in the long run can put the aggregate gamblers ahead by a small 5-10% per year.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: moustachio on May 03, 2014, 08:15:27 AM
I don`t know if this was a great idea, but i just bought a lottery ticket. I bought BP 52$ Calls for 0.04 that end on friday next week. When BP rises by 8-10% this is a 100 bagger which is possible when it breaks out through its february top next week. Slowly my old demons are coming through again, but i found this a good risk/reward scenario.
Anybody out there who likes to punch me in the face for throwing my money away gambling?

What was your position size as a percentage of your portfolio?

I'm usually not a fan of short term trades, since I tend to over size all of my positions. I'm no technical analyst, but at least it looks like the stock is in something of an uptrend...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on May 03, 2014, 10:07:37 AM
0.1%, its just a gamble with good odds. But i forgot to look at dividend paydates, wednesday is the ex-div date. The last time i did these kind of things was 3 years ago, but i was not very successful doing only this. (Because i was too greedy, let my profits run away and overtrading.)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on May 04, 2014, 02:40:13 PM

KCLI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on May 09, 2014, 08:06:44 AM
I bought a full position in LMCA over the past two weeks and sold McCormick and CH Robinson to fund the purchase. LMCA is now my second largest position after Bidvest.   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on May 13, 2014, 11:20:21 AM
Made some big changes today.
Sold KHOLY. Short TESLA,RH,AMZN. Sold Russel 2000 Futures. I am now at 100% long, 30% short and plan to short more in the next days.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on May 13, 2014, 12:10:40 PM
October and December 2014 $190 strike SPY puts
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 13, 2014, 12:19:40 PM
ASPS BBRY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on May 14, 2014, 10:54:10 AM
Sold Oracle and RDS.B and bought MDAX puts dec 2014, 16500€ strike.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rainman on May 14, 2014, 11:14:11 AM
LMCA, not sure why it is down a lot today
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on May 14, 2014, 11:21:30 AM
LMCA, not sure why it is down a lot today

Maybe this has something to do with it:

http://www.valuewalk.com/2014/05/tiger-eye-capital-dumps-liberty-media-time-warner-cable/
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wellmont on May 14, 2014, 02:12:04 PM
I think it's just re-positioning. there is a lot of liquidation in hedge fund / r2k names going on.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 14, 2014, 02:37:28 PM
Cable industry consolidation? Maybe media companies can't raise prices as aggressively as before? The whole media space is selling off.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 15, 2014, 08:57:20 AM
I sold calls on BP and T.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 15, 2014, 11:08:55 AM
HGG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bmichaud on May 15, 2014, 12:35:04 PM
Been buying VRX over the past week. Phenomenal buying opp IMO.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 16, 2014, 07:19:24 AM
I bought/closed my JCP puts.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 16, 2014, 12:33:40 PM
AMZN FB
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on May 16, 2014, 12:39:39 PM
AMZN FB

WOW someone on this board buys these stocks???
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 16, 2014, 12:45:50 PM
They look cheap 2-3 years out. I am hardly the only value oriented guy owning AMZN.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: cubsfan on May 16, 2014, 12:56:02 PM
Yea, plus you and David Tepper like FB!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on May 17, 2014, 10:52:09 PM
Bought some Verizon and GM LEAPS recently. VZ LEAPS are very attractive, I was able to get 10% OTM 2 years out at 17% volatility. I'd love to buy more if VZ happens to fall double digits.  I'm now waiting to increase my stakes in Toyota an Verisign IMOS and Liberty Global.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: meiroy on May 18, 2014, 03:06:44 AM
I've been buying BRK for the dividends and APPL for the coming disruptive innovations.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: woltac on May 18, 2014, 06:38:03 AM
Bought Jan 2016 BAC $15 calls. 
Sold Jan 2015 LUK $25 puts.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on May 19, 2014, 08:03:58 AM
Bought Jan 2016 BAC $15 calls. 
Sold Jan 2015 LUK $25 puts.

I can't find the 2015 LUK puts listed through Interactive Brokers "option trader".  The oldest ones listed are Dec 2014. 

How/where did you find them?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sswan11 on May 19, 2014, 09:31:50 AM
Re LUK 1/15 puts:
They do show up in Think or Swim (TDAmeritrade), but are "non-standard"

09:22 me: get a msg when I try to trade these that they are "nonstandard"?
09:22 me: .LUK2150117C25
09:25 p.espinosa: hi.  the reason they are non standard is that upon exercise, the LUK Jan15 options would deliver 81 shares of LUK instead of the standard 100.  non standard adjusted options such as LUK Jan15's can run into liquidity issues, as traders normally just trade the standard option contracts
09:28 p.espinosa: the non standard split adjusted options need to be priced off of this:  LUK stock price x .81

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 19, 2014, 09:47:32 AM
EC - Ecopetrol S.A. 6% dividend yield 8x normalized FCF
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on May 23, 2014, 12:27:33 PM
RTI. after it ran up  :-[ been thinking about it a while now. smallest of my four holdings.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on May 26, 2014, 11:55:50 AM
RTI. after it ran up  :-[ been thinking about it a while now. smallest of my four holdings.

4 ??? holdings??? that's the smallest portfolio I have ever heard of.....

I bought New Century Holdings HK (HK:0234), see my writeup:

http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/2014/05/why-i-bought-new-century-holdings-hk.html
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on May 27, 2014, 10:13:53 AM
Shorted a basket of stocks (DDD,CRM,P,LNKD,ULTI) and the Russel 2k. I am now fully hedged and plan to surf the time as a long-short fund until the next big downmove.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 30, 2014, 09:17:36 AM
I sold SLV $18 6/27/14 Puts.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thecynic on May 30, 2014, 12:02:44 PM
Altius Minerals, ALS.TO. Made it a 5% position.

SP dropping because of fears of china slowdown & if mines would get built. Good management track record & in the long run, civilization will require metals. Low cost producer but may not be lowest (brazil/nw australia).

Plan to add every 10% drop upto a max of 10%. Will only sell if I see management make promises and then doesn't keep them.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on May 30, 2014, 12:12:31 PM
The Los Angeles Clippers.   ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 30, 2014, 12:34:56 PM
$25 strike Jan 2016 SLV calls.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 30, 2014, 12:42:01 PM
The Los Angeles Clippers.   ;D

Hi Steve, can I get a job from you? I promise I can destroy value quicker than you can.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 03, 2014, 07:38:04 AM
I sold covered calls on KO ($41 EXP 08/16/14).

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 05, 2014, 12:54:38 PM
I bought IWM Jan16 $115 strike Puts.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on June 05, 2014, 02:05:24 PM
SODA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on June 07, 2014, 09:14:13 AM
After feeling a lot of pain with a long/short portfolio in the last week i give it up, its just not for me. I covered all shorts, i just hold onto bbh and mdax put options as protection. I put this into lesson learned category which has cost me my outperformance of the first 5 months. So if i will ever short again i will only do it with small put positions.
Nevertheless i raised my cash level a bit, sold CHL, DLR, WSTG,BACHY and OHI and bought ALS.TO and VZ. I am really trading too much, but i am constantly in fear of losing my gains. Really weird, i need a psychologist.  ::)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on June 11, 2014, 10:01:55 AM
MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on June 11, 2014, 11:40:19 AM
Symbility Solutions (TSXV:SY)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on June 11, 2014, 12:32:20 PM
Symbility Solutions (TSXV:SY)

Why?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rainman on June 11, 2014, 01:49:42 PM
Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market.



MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Aberhound on June 11, 2014, 02:15:24 PM
SC on speculation that the lower earnings are due to the conservative reserving while the credit portfolio is improving due to the Chrysler deal. I think the new Chrysler/Fiat vehicles are great so they are likely to grow market share. This means at least 9 more years of good growth. I agree with SD that the company is in a position from its scale and expertise from Santander to bleed the competitors such as Ally white. We are mid cycle and I expect more jobs as manufacturing moves back to US primarily due to cheap energy and faster innovation adoption. Good interest margins like this are likely to become scarce. People love their cars keeping margins fat. Finally car sharing technologies will help the poor increase the utilization of cars so they are better able to afford the payments. Can't make your payment? Sign up with Uber as a driver and work during peak hours.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on June 11, 2014, 04:17:39 PM
Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market.



MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.
Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on June 12, 2014, 03:18:33 PM
this is a 50c dollar - and the value can be realized immediately:

https://www.groupon.com/deals/starbucks-2-2010

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 12, 2014, 03:23:47 PM
Interesting gary..  it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on June 12, 2014, 03:50:26 PM
Interesting gary..  it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)

Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :))
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on June 12, 2014, 03:53:20 PM
Interesting gary..  it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)

Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :))

Actually....there is. ;)

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=starbucks+gif&_osacat=0&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1311.R1.TR12.TRC2.A0.H0&_nkw=starbucks+gift+card&_sacat=0
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on June 12, 2014, 03:57:47 PM
Interesting gary..  it doesn't exactly scale though, does it? :)

Also it is not liquid, I don't think there is a secondary market for it :))

Actually....there is. ;)

http://www.ebay.com/sch/i.html?_odkw=starbucks+gif&_osacat=0&_from=R40&_trksid=p2045573.m570.l1311.R1.TR12.TRC2.A0.H0&_nkw=starbucks+gift+card&_sacat=0

Limit 1 per person. Can't scale  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on June 12, 2014, 04:24:09 PM
Create a few more accounts and use different names!  There's money to be made here, you just gotta do the work!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on June 12, 2014, 05:07:19 PM
Gift cards going for curious prices:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870

And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on June 12, 2014, 06:36:55 PM
Gift cards going for curious prices:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870

And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery...

buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on June 12, 2014, 07:33:14 PM
Gift cards going for curious prices:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870

And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery...

buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled.

That makes it clear why cards should sell at a discount, but the one I linked was selling at a premium. The face value was $50. It sold for $162.50.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on June 12, 2014, 09:24:59 PM
Most likely MONT is a fraud. But with PDSTI acquisition, shorting it may be too dangerous ? PDSTI could acquire it and IPO in Chinese stock market.



MONT Jan 2015 20 - 15 put spreads at 55 cents

Tilson Right, Chinese company is a fraud buyout not real:     8 Profit
Tilson Wrong, Chinese company is a fraud but buyout real: -1 Loss

http://seekingalpha.com/symbol/MONT?s=mont


Why I Just Made Montage Technology Group My Largest Short Position
Whitney Tilson • Today, 12:30 PM • 2 Comments
China Orders Montage Technology To Cease Production And Sale
Aristides Capital • Today, 8:13 AM • 25 Comments

    Montage's stated set top box revenue is not consistent with its reputation as a very minor player; other brands dominate Montage by 10:1 to 35:1 among suppliers and finished goods.
    Montage produces the majority of chips in a 5 million chip per month black market; China's government recently ordered them to "stop illegal production and sales activities immediately".
    Excluding illegal chips, Montage trades at roughly 10x revenue. Neither PDSTI nor anyone else is likely to buy MONT at this price. Any of numerous catalysts could drop MONT precipitously.
Yep that's why I bought put spreads that pay you $5 if it's fraud for the premium of 55 cents. I also would t short this for fear of halt risk and borrow risk. Some guys who successfully identified frauds got destroyed by borrow when share were halted for months. Anyways, the base case is obviously thT the deal goes through and I lose my money, but when you see a company that has delayed SEC filings announce a buyout 20 minutes after a seeking alpha article cries fraud and the acquirer is some state owned thing, I think it's a decent bet to taken given the odds the options market is giving you. Obviously to be done in small size. I know people have mixed feelings about tilson, but I think I agree with him that betting against this thing is a good risk reward , and the put spreads make it more appealing.

I cloned the exact trade today, but only got 11 contracts filled at $0.55 spread.  Like the risk-reward.

In China, "only the fakery is real".

Thanks for the idea.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on June 12, 2014, 10:32:43 PM
Gift cards going for curious prices:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870

And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery...

buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled.

That makes it clear why cards should sell at a discount, but the one I linked was selling at a premium. The face value was $50. It sold for $162.50.

That is crazy  for that premium. but i buy a ton of gift cards online and often times see ppl pay for more than face value and in my mind I'm just what....
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on June 15, 2014, 09:21:40 PM

Bought EUPIC:ATH, European Reliance General Insurance SA

http://bovinebear.blogspot.com/2014/06/why-i-bought-european-reliance.html
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on June 16, 2014, 04:30:20 AM
i found out they were giving out 2.15 on germany beating portugal today. it's a no-brainer based on the definition of football:

two teams play for 90 minutes, germany wins.  ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on June 16, 2014, 08:11:36 AM
Wrote June 125-strike puts on BRK/B.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Worlds Within the Margin on June 16, 2014, 10:48:08 AM
Gift cards going for curious prices:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=231251221870

And seller is charging $2.32 for email delivery...

buying using stolen credit cards? I was curious why there were so many gift cards on sale at 80-90 face value. Then I learned hackers were laundering stolen gift cards using these gift cards reselling sites. The discount is warranted because any stolen cards have some possibility of being cancelled.

That makes it clear why cards should sell at a discount, but the one I linked was selling at a premium. The face value was $50. It sold for $162.50.

Money Laundering?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 16, 2014, 12:05:59 PM
PKX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on June 24, 2014, 09:01:46 AM
PKX

Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on June 24, 2014, 09:12:54 AM
Anybody look at CBI recently?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on June 24, 2014, 09:19:23 AM
SINA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: argonaut on June 24, 2014, 09:27:23 AM
@buylowersellhigh

I have not looked at CBI since it rose last year...but I should look again as its dropping, see why and if it makes sense to buy back in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on June 24, 2014, 09:33:13 AM
Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP.

Anything specific made you sell ALS?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on June 24, 2014, 09:47:20 AM
Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP.

Anything specific made you sell ALS?

Margin of safety is a lot higher in PKX and i didn`t really like the news gamble. But i wish everyone good luck with ALS.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Andy Dufresne on June 24, 2014, 10:14:21 AM
Switched ALS.TO+cash to PKX. Looks really good, PKX is now my biggest bet after BP.

Anything specific made you sell ALS?

Margin of safety is a lot higher in PKX and i didn`t really like the news gamble. But i wish everyone good luck with ALS.

frommi - can you elucidate what you believe is the MoS in Posco exactly? Thx!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on June 24, 2014, 10:40:32 AM
frommi - can you elucidate what you believe is the MoS in Posco exactly? Thx!

Tangible bookvalue (look at 10y history) and that Buffet and Third Avenue have positions there. There is a PKX thread in the investment sections with further arguments.
And from a technical viewpoint there is a solid support at 60-65$, thats unlikely to break.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Andy Dufresne on June 24, 2014, 10:51:54 AM
OK - thanks, will look on the thread!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 24, 2014, 11:01:19 AM
In addition to Frommi's points, I view PKX as a best in class steel producer which should benefit from a global economic recovery (if it happens).  If it doesn't, there is a bit of a stabilizer in that iron prices should continue downward which helps them from a cost perspective.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 24, 2014, 11:19:37 AM
Bought HLC.to today, it's a fairly small position.   Thanks for the idea Myth!   Myth lays out the thesis in the more recent section of the clarke page.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on June 24, 2014, 04:38:22 PM
Ebay, W.R. Grace and Valeant Pharmaceuticals.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tinhb on June 26, 2014, 12:26:49 PM
DSWL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 26, 2014, 01:55:36 PM
I wrote puts on SHLD today. 

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on July 01, 2014, 01:35:37 PM

Added ITIC to my position. I am doing what good value investors do, buy a stock I think is cheap, and if I am wrong and it is not cheap and it drops, BUY SOME MORE.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Myth465 on July 02, 2014, 05:37:30 PM
Bought HLC.to today, it's a fairly small position.   Thanks for the idea Myth!   Myth lays out the thesis in the more recent section of the clarke page.

No prob. I will likely buy more overtime as the thesis is confirmed. Right now its 10% of my portfolio.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on July 02, 2014, 09:30:10 PM
Coach, Altisource Portfolio Solutions, Sodastream
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on July 08, 2014, 12:57:58 PM
I bought HLS today (replacing the last of my JNJ which is really expensive now). I really liked the VIC write up http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/value2/Idea/ViewIdea/118714
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on July 08, 2014, 04:30:14 PM
Added to Sodastream, also readded Delta Airlines after having sold last month. I further bought positions in MBIA, Whole Foods, HCA Holdings, Tenet Healthcare, Dreamworks, JP Morgan warrants, LEAPS in Citigroup, BofA and Genworth.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on July 08, 2014, 05:27:49 PM
SODA, AIXG, CAMP, PBPB, SNE
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on July 09, 2014, 10:58:58 PM
i bought some WU yesterday. left the position to a size that i can double down from a couple of times depending on price action in the coming quarters (after the 500 hours ::)).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on July 10, 2014, 09:21:10 AM
Bought a small position in FLL in speculation that the weather in Q2 was better than in Q1.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on July 11, 2014, 10:07:30 AM
RB.V a few days ago, OPRX, BH.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on July 11, 2014, 12:07:34 PM
I bought EEM Jan 2016 $44 strike puts today. 

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Spekulatius on July 11, 2014, 05:31:33 PM
ALLY, NN.AS and TGI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JoelS on July 11, 2014, 05:45:15 PM
Why do you like Triumph Group Spekulatius? I see it is owned by David Tepper and Alex Roepers
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on July 21, 2014, 05:17:19 AM
russian stocks. after the get hammered this morning.

gazprom, sistema, sberbank, rosneft, pharmstandard, lukoil
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on July 22, 2014, 12:53:02 PM
I bought IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) Jan 2016 $250 puts today.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Spekulatius on July 23, 2014, 09:15:34 PM
Why do you like Triumph Group Spekulatius? I see it is owned by David Tepper and Alex Roepers

It's one if the cheapest aerospace manufacturers/suppliers in the US stock market currently, if the earnings forecast from management comes through. This is not a sure thing, because they disappointed in 2013. I think the issues are fixable and if management isn't able to fix it, somebody else will do it for them.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tinhb on July 24, 2014, 07:41:40 AM
Just bought YHOO Jan16 $50 Call. I think the risk reward is attractive for a small position. The implied volatility is not too high. Alibaba IPO is coming soon with a valuation of US$130 bil (rumored to be a low-ball offer). Yahoo will also sell a smaller than expected stake of Alibaba.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on July 24, 2014, 08:28:49 AM
I bought IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) Jan 2016 $250 puts today.

Thanks
Lance

In a rising market, aren't you far better off concentrating in finding good value buys? I hate to see you blow up.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on July 24, 2014, 10:04:22 AM
Sold 2/3 of my Petsmart today because I went on a buying binge when it was in the mid 50's a few weeks ago.

Bought a partial position in TJX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on July 24, 2014, 12:00:08 PM
In a rising market, aren't you far better off concentrating in finding good value buys? I hate to see you blow up.

I invert this, is it not a good idea to buy stocks in a falling market?
Don`t be too friggin long at the moment. :D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: peter1234 on July 24, 2014, 09:20:03 PM
I bought IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) Jan 2016 $250 puts today.

Thanks
Lance

In a rising market, aren't you far better off concentrating in finding good value buys? I hate to see you blow up.

How do you blow up buying Puts?
 ???
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on July 27, 2014, 11:16:34 AM
I bought IBB (iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF) Jan 2016 $250 puts today.

Thanks
Lance

In a rising market, aren't you far better off concentrating in finding good value buys? I hate to see you blow up.

Hi PatientCheetah, I'm concerned that the market is overvalued.  My IBB puts (and my EEM and IWM puts) are a hedge against my longs, which I would rather not sell.  Also, as they're puts, I'm not concerned about blowing up (my LNKD, NFLX and TSLA shorts on the otherhand...).

Thanks,
Lance 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on July 28, 2014, 01:33:25 PM


GLBS after selling a year ago, well no sense crying over spilt milk.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on July 29, 2014, 01:15:57 PM
SBRCY - Sberbank Rossii OAO

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on August 01, 2014, 04:03:16 PM
bought some BAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on August 02, 2014, 05:43:52 AM
The financials offer a wide array of possibilities right now: Ocwen Financial, Altisource Portfolio Solutions, JP Morgan, Bank of America (plus A warrants), Citigroup, AIG, Genworth Financial, Sberbank.

Life Time Fitness, Seaworld Entertainment, Monsanto are some other names that come to mind.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on August 06, 2014, 08:15:41 AM
fiat, altisource, Eurobank ergasius, horsehead, gazprom, sberbank, lightstream, penn west and clarke
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on August 06, 2014, 08:20:02 AM
fiat, altisource, Eurobank ergasius, horsehead, gazprom, sberbank, lightstream, penn west and clarke

That's more names than I have in my portfolio. :D

Must say plenty of stocks have gotten cheaper quickly these last few days. AIQ, LRE, Fiat, GM, JPM, IBM, Intralot, .. for those that I follow closely. Let's hope the European correction blows over!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on August 06, 2014, 08:39:33 AM
fiat, altisource, Eurobank ergasius, horsehead, gazprom, sberbank, lightstream, penn west and clarke

That's more names than I have in my portfolio. :D

Must say plenty of stocks have gotten cheaper quickly these last few days. AIQ, LRE, Fiat, GM, JPM, IBM, Intralot, .. for those that I follow closely. Let's hope the European correction blows over!

:D yeah i have a Portfolio with a lot of names. i take the Walter schloss Approach. 

yeah youre right. a lot of stocks get cheap. i would buy all of that youre mentioned if i have more Money right now.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on August 06, 2014, 08:50:12 AM
I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: phil_Buffett on August 06, 2014, 08:55:51 AM
I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).

i can understand you. also sold last week my posco to buy some stocks with more Price potential
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on August 07, 2014, 08:51:42 AM
Jan 16 calls on PWE (5) and SD (3).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on September 19, 2014, 09:05:42 AM
SHLD and a basket of offshore drillers (ESV, SDRL and RIG). 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on September 19, 2014, 09:19:37 AM
I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).

i can understand you. also sold last week my posco to buy some stocks with more Price potential

When you look at normalized earnings at Posco they are still pretty cheap. In the next steel bull cycle they should be able to earn 3x-4x of what they earn currently. And i doubt that Monish would buy something with 20% upside.  :)

I will probably look very stupid at the end of the year but i bought more puts today and have now around 50% in cash. And some of west`s Japanese picks have found their way into my portfolio. (Thanks!)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on September 19, 2014, 09:46:15 AM
DNOW
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sethatk on September 19, 2014, 01:27:26 PM
PRDFG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: saltybit on September 19, 2014, 01:39:55 PM
more IFT
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on September 29, 2014, 06:44:11 AM
I sold my PKX and CHL to pay for FIATY, LUKOY and UPL. Mostly because I think PKX and CHL are no longer undervalued (some appreciation and erosion of fundamentals).

i can understand you. also sold last week my posco to buy some stocks with more Price potential

And i thought i am good at timing.  ;D
It was probably not a bad idea to sell pkx, even when i still think that there is still plenty of upside in the coming years.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on September 29, 2014, 07:46:41 AM
ALLY- Ally Financial

Buying from the US Govt. They want out by EOY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on September 29, 2014, 09:12:46 AM
I am hoping to be included in the Premier Diagnostic Health Services Inc private placement - 1st closing!  Funds submitted, awaiting confirmation.   

Tks,
S
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on September 29, 2014, 09:22:38 AM
AVP
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on September 29, 2014, 09:39:05 AM
PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on September 29, 2014, 09:51:16 AM
SC EJ SFUN
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Kraven on September 29, 2014, 09:55:41 AM
Coffee.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: nikhil25 on October 01, 2014, 10:11:53 AM
Coffee.

That's a bold move - given the challenging macro-environment we're currently in!  :D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 01, 2014, 10:14:05 AM
AIG and BCS.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TorontoRaptorsFan on October 01, 2014, 11:23:52 AM
Apple - AAPL

They're going to sell a lot of iphone 6 and 6+. China market for the new iPhones opens this month.
New iPads on the way.
If the stock price drops Cook will direct his finance team to do more share buybacks.
I think the marketing team they have in place Ahrendts, Dr. Dre, Iovine is excellent and will make the Apple watch the next cool purchase to buy (using the same tactics they used at Beats)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: SmallCap on October 01, 2014, 11:49:59 AM
Had some limit orders trigger today.

finally Bought some LTS - Lightstream
Sold some PWE Puts for Jan 2016 $7 strike-  I think of it like a long term limit order at a $5.30 price point (18% discount to current price) and if it doesn't get filled then I got paid 25% interest on my money to wait.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on October 01, 2014, 12:04:46 PM
ALLY Financial (CALLS)

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on October 01, 2014, 12:30:44 PM

2017 Yahoo Synthetic Call (Long stock, long 35.00 put)
2017 BABA Bear Call Spread (Short 87.5 Call, long 135.00 call) where notional on ATM call is 80% of the Yahoo long position

This creates the Non-BABA Yahoo stub with fixed downside on the bearish BABA position.

Love me a big steaming pile of basis risk and negatively skewed holdco arbitrage  ;D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 02, 2014, 09:59:10 AM
SLM

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 02, 2014, 04:31:55 PM
OCN
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 03, 2014, 12:18:23 PM
PGH Pengrowth Energy and PT Portugal Telecom

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thecynic on October 04, 2014, 03:29:11 PM
Last week bought 5% each of FNMA/FMCC prefs, MEI.v & BXE.to.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BargainValueHunter on October 04, 2014, 06:45:52 PM
DXM, XCO, FTP, GDXJ
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 08, 2014, 08:30:29 AM
AIG

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longlake95 on October 08, 2014, 10:02:21 AM
PWT @ $6
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on October 08, 2014, 10:23:47 AM
OCN
what took you over the edge?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: intothebreach on October 08, 2014, 10:33:35 AM
Recently increased positions in AIG stock and to a lesser extent Warrants.

Waiting for the 2017 leaps to arrive next week to turn this into a "value meal"...

(By the way, thanks to ERICOPOLY for his numerous inputs on options as leverage -- went through the whole AIG thread yesterday specifically for this reason. The pages count in the BAC thread was just too intimidating : )
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dpetrescu on October 08, 2014, 09:59:08 PM
More GM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 09, 2014, 08:33:03 AM
EWO (ishares Austria), MBT (Mobile Telesystems) and PGAL (Portugal etf).

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Gopinath on October 09, 2014, 08:55:31 AM
CTCM :-)..
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 09, 2014, 09:34:25 AM
EWO (ishares Austria), MBT (Mobile Telesystems) and PGAL (Portugal etf).

Thanks
Lance

Lance, it seems like you;re always buying. Are you selling other positions too?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 09, 2014, 10:12:02 AM
bac and brk.b
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 09, 2014, 01:12:07 PM
EWO (ishares Austria), MBT (Mobile Telesystems) and PGAL (Portugal etf).

Thanks
Lance

Lance, it seems like you;re always buying. Are you selling other positions too?

fareastwarriors - Yes, I hold a lot of positions and trade around them quite a bit.

Thanks,
Lance 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 09, 2014, 07:47:51 PM
OCN
what took you over the edge?

technical :D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on October 09, 2014, 08:38:35 PM
Wells Fargo
I'm betting a strong report on Tues
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 10, 2014, 07:37:56 AM
AZSEY (Allianz) and LUKOY (Lukoil)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: king888 on October 11, 2014, 12:03:05 PM
Bought NCTY . Firefall game is great I like it. The licensing deal alone is worth more than currrent market cap
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: stahleyp on October 12, 2014, 09:46:57 AM
Bought NCTY . Firefall game is great I like it. The licensing deal alone is worth more than currrent market cap

I don't keep up with the industry like I used to but I do know that it's a brutal, brutal place to invest. Look at all publicly (or formally) traded companies in the field. Off the top of my head:

Majesco
Midway
EA
Nintendo
Konami
Activision
Eidos
Take Two

The only one that I think has beaten the market over the past decade is AVTI. Some of the other ones (Midway, Majesco) you would have gotten crushed. Heck, look at TTWO - even with GTA it still would've been a poor investment over the past decade (decent over 15 years).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: peter1234 on October 12, 2014, 01:27:46 PM
Bought NCTY . Firefall game is great I like it. The licensing deal alone is worth more than currrent market cap

I don't keep up with the industry like I used to but I do know that it's a brutal, brutal place to invest. Look at all publicly (or formally) traded companies in the field. Off the top of my head:

Majesco
Midway
EA
Nintendo
Konami
Activision
Eidos
Take Two

The only one that I think has beaten the market over the past decade is AVTI. Some of the other ones (Midway, Majesco) you would have gotten crushed. Heck, look at TTWO - even with GTA it still would've been a poor investment over the past decade (decent over 15 years).

Thank you, this is a good list.
 :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: leftcoast on October 12, 2014, 01:57:25 PM
Ubisoft
Zynga
Nexon
Tencent

And of course THQ went to zero.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on October 12, 2014, 02:00:41 PM
AIG, AIG/WT, GNW, WAC, OCN, CBI, FMC, GT, OI, QIHU, MGM, AAL, DAL, GM, GM/WT/B, CHK, NOV, PIR, TWI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 14, 2014, 06:59:24 AM
AIXG ALLY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Homestead31 on October 14, 2014, 07:15:22 AM
according to the media "small caps are still expensive" but this recent sell off has created some incredible value in select names in my opinion.  CHEF, MSO, EZPW are all names that I think can double in the next 2-3 years with solid downside protection.

some of the special situation names have gotten destroyed as well as they are over owned by hedge funds, and hedge funds are the first guys to cut their losses and run in a sell off.  BKS is a good example.

happy to discuss any of the above.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on October 14, 2014, 07:45:26 AM
AIG, AIG/WT, GNW, WAC, OCN, CBI, FMC, GT, OI, QIHU, MGM, AAL, DAL, GM, GM/WT/B, CHK, NOV, PIR, TWI


You bought all those in one day?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on October 14, 2014, 07:15:39 PM
Just do the opposite what I do and everyone will make a fortune.
I bought wells for the first time a week ago thinking I'm going with the safest bank and then watch a 10 percent decline. I know as value investors it's great to buy more but it was already a full position for me.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: intothebreach on October 14, 2014, 07:27:05 PM
Completed my AIG "value meal" with the 2017 LEAPs that started trading yesterday.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 14, 2014, 07:28:21 PM
jpm (as market opened today) and gud (TSX)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 14, 2014, 07:35:08 PM
according to the media "small caps are still expensive" but this recent sell off has created some incredible value in select names in my opinion.  CHEF, MSO, EZPW are all names that I think can double in the next 2-3 years with solid downside protection.

some of the special situation names have gotten destroyed as well as they are over owned by hedge funds, and hedge funds are the first guys to cut their losses and run in a sell off.  BKS is a good example.

happy to discuss any of the above.

Ya I noticed all my US small caps are taking a beating. These stock vary a lot but it seems like the market just paints them all with one brush......

hope this ends soon
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on October 14, 2014, 09:51:58 PM
Completed my AIG "value meal" with the 2017 LEAPs that started trading yesterday.

I haven't been able to fully understand the lawsuit between SICO and US government, and what's the likelihood that AIG is liable to pay for that?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on October 15, 2014, 06:46:48 AM
Added to FCAU, BAC, VZ, and OXY. This selloff seems silly to me.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 15, 2014, 06:48:37 AM
bac and ssw
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on October 15, 2014, 07:29:55 AM
Added 10% to Altius at 9.98 USD.
Reopened a long in drybulk with SB at $4.95
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on October 15, 2014, 07:50:24 AM
Bought a 7% stake in Suncor Energy today
and a 7% stake (out of my portfolio;) of Standard Chartered
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 15, 2014, 09:23:04 AM
EWI (ishares Italy etf), GREK (Greece etf) and NBG (National Bank of Greece) - albeit these are very, very small positions. 

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 15, 2014, 12:44:57 PM

BAC common
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on October 15, 2014, 12:52:29 PM
I swapped my LBTYK for LBTYA when the spread became much narrower than usual. I figured, why not?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 15, 2014, 12:56:21 PM
In addition to bac and ssw previously noted, bought ctrx and qcom.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 15, 2014, 01:18:35 PM
RIG (Transocean) and NCV (Allianz Convertible & Income Fund).

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Picasso on October 15, 2014, 03:10:58 PM
Softbank.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 15, 2014, 03:56:35 PM
A Slutty Ebolavirus costume.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 15, 2014, 05:10:37 PM
Softbank, PCLN, MA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: fareastwarriors on October 15, 2014, 05:18:46 PM
I added  a bit to BAC WT-A
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: OracleofCarolina on October 15, 2014, 05:30:36 PM
Nothing..just sitting tight
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on October 15, 2014, 05:54:46 PM
IBM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 15, 2014, 06:28:20 PM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on October 15, 2014, 06:45:52 PM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities.

In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 15, 2014, 07:34:55 PM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities.

In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further.


Can you explain your latter sentence?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ericd1 on October 15, 2014, 09:19:54 PM
BAC & GE leaps
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: meiroy on October 15, 2014, 09:47:52 PM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities.

In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further.


Can you explain your latter sentence?

Definitely does not look like a bottom.  Bought some but still at almost half cash (thanks to some wise men here for the timing lessons)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: meiroy on October 16, 2014, 05:12:33 AM
Goldman just crushed estimates and it's down like 2.5% pre-market. This really doesn't look like some small temporary dip. It's something else this time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: merkhet on October 16, 2014, 05:23:36 AM
Goldman just crushed estimates and it's down like 2.5% pre-market. This really doesn't look like some small temporary dip. It's something else this time.

How can you tell the difference?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Picasso on October 16, 2014, 05:27:25 AM
It's not hard to tell when the market is no longer in dip mode.  HPQ and EBAY both announced spin-offs, but the stocks are well below the announcement prices.  Stocks beating earnings do not matter.  Big buyback announcement do not matter.

This is just another big unwind of too much leverage in equities.  It will finish when people throw in the towel and realize if they were wrong about interest rates, they're probably wrong about stocks too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on October 16, 2014, 05:32:57 AM
There was a very long time without a correction. Everyone was waiting for some reason to drive a correction. I have no idea what the market will do in the near term, but European concerns seem overblown. Is Europe really all that different than it was 2 weeks ago when the market was rallying?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Picasso on October 16, 2014, 05:43:15 AM
I think it is more likely that Europe always sucked and the bond market reflected it.  30-year bunds are down under 1.8% and equities shrugged it off as if it didn't matter.

You don't have 2% 30-year bonds when there is a lot of growth and any worry can cause that tiny growth to disappear.  So if anything I think the big push into European equities to benefit from potential QE was misguided.

Actually, I had a post pretty much near the top of the market on this: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/naked-puts/msg189834/#msg189834

Options skew and bonds were telling a totally different story than stocks.  But there have been so many false signals in the past couple years that no one really cared.

It will be interesting to see how this shakes out.  We are value investors after all, so this should be extremely beneficial.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on October 16, 2014, 05:54:18 AM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Many people on this board have been accumulating cash for awhile now. Even after my two most recent purchases, I'm left with 25% cash. The two stocks I bought were down 30-60% and looked like steals even if I am concerned about general markets going down. Still plenty of ability to average down if my fears are realized.

I don't think you can gauge sentiment by the buying and selling activity here. Most members seem to ignore the macro  simply buy deals they like regardless. Maybe the sizing of the buys and sells changes - i know mine do- but  few people here try to call tops and bottoms
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on October 16, 2014, 06:33:15 AM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities.

In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further.


Can you explain your latter sentence?

As more bargains become available, the "buy-the-dippers" will put cash to work. This temporarily slows the bottoming process. When the buying is exhausted, the bottom will be formed. My instinct says we haven't seen the bottom yet. I don't try to time the market though. IBM hit my target price, so I bought.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on October 16, 2014, 06:44:57 AM
I just realized how much Priceline was down. I've looked into it in the passed but thought a good GARP price was 25x TTM. I'm looking back through their reports now.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on October 16, 2014, 06:53:36 AM
I don't think you can gauge sentiment by the buying and selling activity here. Most members seem to ignore the macro  simply buy deals they like regardless. Maybe the sizing of the buys and sells changes - i know mine do- but  few people here try to call tops and bottoms

Of course. Nobody can call a top or bottom. Markets are too complex.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on October 16, 2014, 07:24:23 AM
IBM is a great call here. 10 PE and you know they are buying back shares hand over fist at these prices.

I think DTV merger arb is very attractive today!

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Junto on October 16, 2014, 07:50:30 AM
I have been buying and now its my 2nd largest position TAXI. Very strong buy at these levels IMO.

Top positions (BAC, TAXI, AAPL, C, AIG)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BRK7 on October 16, 2014, 09:37:24 AM
Interesting idea, Lance.  I suspect you bought due to discount to NAV which is presumably related to Gross' departure (even though Gross was not the manager of this fund).  But, aside from the discount, how do you feel about the prospects for the fund itself and future NAV growth?  As I understand it, the current PDI holdings are basically a leveraged portfolio of non-agency (low credit quality) mortgages. 

I note that Gross himself was buying as recently as Aug 21 @ $32.76.

Thanks.


PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 16, 2014, 10:39:49 AM
CBI
AIG warrant
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 16, 2014, 10:47:37 AM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Many people on this board have been accumulating cash for awhile now. Even after my two most recent purchases, I'm left with 25% cash. The two stocks I bought were down 30-60% and looked like steals even if I am concerned about general markets going down. Still plenty of ability to average down if my fears are realized.

I don't think you can gauge sentiment by the buying and selling activity here. Most members seem to ignore the macro  simply buy deals they like regardless. Maybe the sizing of the buys and sells changes - i know mine do- but  few people here try to call tops and bottoms

Well, I meant and I think you can guage by comparing this thread with the "what are you selling today" thread. There is nothing there!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 16, 2014, 10:50:29 AM

If the buying and selling threads are accurate guage of the sentiment in this forum, people here in this forum feel like today is just a dip and a buying opportunity.

Long term, it is a dip and a buying opportunity. Whenever you see forced selling you can assume there will be some opportunities.

In the short term, the buying activity on this forum suggests there is still room to drop further.


Can you explain your latter sentence?

As more bargains become available, the "buy-the-dippers" will put cash to work. This temporarily slows the bottoming process. When the buying is exhausted, the bottom will be formed. My instinct says we haven't seen the bottom yet. I don't try to time the market though. IBM hit my target price, so I bought.

I think your statement applies if we have capitulation. Maybe it was true in 2009 march, but on any random dip, the actions of this thread is not the cause of the market level.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on October 16, 2014, 10:59:37 AM
Nothing today, hoping the US markets go a little further than a lousy 10% decline!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Rainforesthiker on October 16, 2014, 11:49:56 AM
Been steadily buying GM-B warrants over the past week
bought some EZPW in the last few days (EZ Corp)
bought some Mastercard and Visa
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on October 16, 2014, 12:11:50 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on October 16, 2014, 12:20:05 PM
Nothing today, hoping the US markets go a little further than a lousy 10% decline!

ya, well I was kicking myself for not getting in last may, I don't want to repeat that mistake again.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on October 16, 2014, 12:40:35 PM
There are some stocks that seem pretty cheap.  But in terms of using this board as a proxy (which was mentioned above)---I think that's a bit of a mistake.  Most people on this board probably consider themselves value investors---however two different people could have completely independent approaches and still garner good results. As an example Charlie Munger ran an EXTREMELY concentrated portfolio and Walter Schloss ran a VERY diversified portfolio.  However, in retrospect investing with either of those guys would have been a great decision.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on October 16, 2014, 12:46:35 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

take 4 billion of earnings and let them grow like 15% a year. There is a little bit of operating leverage. Marketing for example seems mostly fixed. And SG&A grows much slower then revenue in past years.  So if revenue grows 10-12% a year, earnings could easily grow at least 15 and potentially 20% a year.

So I guess it is hard to do worse then 10-15% a year long term on MA.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: oddballstocks on October 16, 2014, 12:47:13 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

I own MA, and have owned since a month or two after the IPO.  This is one of my few 'moat' companies.  I am just holding on tight.  Valuation might be stretched now, but if you think out 10 years the world will be increasingly digital vs cash based.  MA is going to benefit from this.

I prefer MA over V because MA includes Europe whereas Visa does not.  Is this an incredible value play, maybe not here, but I think I'll be happy in 5-10 years verses where shares are at now.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on October 16, 2014, 01:04:08 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

I own MA, and have owned since a month or two after the IPO.  This is one of my few 'moat' companies.  I am just holding on tight.  Valuation might be stretched now, but if you think out 10 years the world will be increasingly digital vs cash based.  MA is going to benefit from this.

I prefer MA over V because MA includes Europe whereas Visa does not.  Is this an incredible value play, maybe not here, but I think I'll be happy in 5-10 years verses where shares are at now.

What do you mean by this? I think I misunderstand you as my credit card is from Visa. We have both here?

Nothing today, hoping the US markets go a little further than a lousy 10% decline!

ya, well I was kicking myself for not getting in last may, I don't want to repeat that mistake again.



I wouldn't call that a mistake. No called strikes right?

Generally for me it's a mistake to do anything so I try to be patient.  ;D I have bought but just not that much. I'd prefer to be at least a little fearful before buying a lot more. A mere 10% move up (or down) shouldn't really change my decision to buy or sell anything.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: nodnub on October 16, 2014, 02:00:22 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

I own MA, and have owned since a month or two after the IPO.  This is one of my few 'moat' companies.  I am just holding on tight.  Valuation might be stretched now, but if you think out 10 years the world will be increasingly digital vs cash based.  MA is going to benefit from this.

I prefer MA over V because MA includes Europe whereas Visa does not.  Is this an incredible value play, maybe not here, but I think I'll be happy in 5-10 years verses where shares are at now.

What do you mean by this? I think I misunderstand you as my credit card is from Visa. We have both here?


VISA Europe is separate from VISA.  VISA Europe is owned by financial member institutions not public shareholders.
http://usa.visa.com/about-visa/our-business/visa-inc-and-europe.jsp
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on October 16, 2014, 02:50:57 PM
Ha I had no idea, thx!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Rainforesthiker on October 16, 2014, 03:00:07 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

For MasterCard and Visa I think more in qualitative terms wrt valuation.  They are a very strong duopoly, essentially they receive a royalty on worldwide digital commerce, or act as a tollbooth on worldwide consumption.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but something like 80% of the world's transactions are still cash or check.  Those will continue to move to electronic over time, and thus these companies have a long runway of growth.  V and MA do not issue cards or extend credit ( unlike AmEx and Discover), they just collect a small piece of each transaction.  They generate lots of cash and have been buying back lots of stock.  I just think here are great businesses to own for a long time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Rainforesthiker on October 16, 2014, 03:05:19 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

I own MA, and have owned since a month or two after the IPO.  This is one of my few 'moat' companies.  I am just holding on tight.  Valuation might be stretched now, but if you think out 10 years the world will be increasingly digital vs cash based.  MA is going to benefit from this.

I prefer MA over V because MA includes Europe whereas Visa does not.  Is this an incredible value play, maybe not here, but I think I'll be happy in 5-10 years verses where shares are at now.

What do you mean by this? I think I misunderstand you as my credit card is from Visa. We have both here?


VISA Europe is separate from VISA.  VISA Europe is owned by financial member institutions not public shareholders.
http://usa.visa.com/about-visa/our-business/visa-inc-and-europe.jsp


A very smart value investor made the case to me that Visa should be preferred over MasterCard as an nvestment because it does not yet own Europe, and is priced accordingly, but he believes it eventually will.  Time will tell.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on October 16, 2014, 03:50:03 PM
bought some Mastercard and Visa

Hi. If I can ask, how do you think about valuation, especially for MA?

For MasterCard and Visa I think more in qualitative terms wrt valuation.  They are a very strong duopoly, essentially they receive a royalty on worldwide digital commerce, or act as a tollbooth on worldwide consumption.  I don't have the numbers in front of me, but something like 80% of the world's transactions are still cash or check.  Those will continue to move to electronic over time, and thus these companies have a long runway of growth.  V and MA do not issue cards or extend credit ( unlike AmEx and Discover), they just collect a small piece of each transaction.  They generate lots of cash and have been buying back lots of stock.  I just think here are great businesses to own for a long time.

Thanks, I looked at them a while ago and basically came to the same qualitative conclusions. I was just curious to know if there's a certain FCF multiple or something like that you'd be buying at or under..
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bargainman on October 16, 2014, 04:20:12 PM
I have been buying and now its my 2nd largest position TAXI. Very strong buy at these levels IMO.

Top positions (BAC, TAXI, AAPL, C, AIG)

what is your thesis on taxi?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 16, 2014, 06:03:55 PM
Interesting idea, Lance.  I suspect you bought due to discount to NAV which is presumably related to Gross' departure (even though Gross was not the manager of this fund).  But, aside from the discount, how do you feel about the prospects for the fund itself and future NAV growth?  As I understand it, the current PDI holdings are basically a leveraged portfolio of non-agency (low credit quality) mortgages. 

I note that Gross himself was buying as recently as Aug 21 @ $32.76.

Thanks.

 

PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund.

Thanks,
Lance

BRK7 - yeah, pretty much.  I figured the Pimco selling was overdone.  Along those lines I also bought Allianz (AZSEY) and one of the Allianz convertible bond funds (NCV) during the sell-off on Wednesday.  As far as the prospects for PDI, I'm guessing that interest rates stay low (and may head lower), thus it should do well.  I don't really have a feel for future NAV growth, but was really just looking for something cheap and levered.  I believe you're correct about the holdings.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jay21 on October 17, 2014, 06:09:33 AM
Interesting idea, Lance.  I suspect you bought due to discount to NAV which is presumably related to Gross' departure (even though Gross was not the manager of this fund).  But, aside from the discount, how do you feel about the prospects for the fund itself and future NAV growth?  As I understand it, the current PDI holdings are basically a leveraged portfolio of non-agency (low credit quality) mortgages. 

I note that Gross himself was buying as recently as Aug 21 @ $32.76.

Thanks.


PDI - PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund.

Thanks,
Lance

I think non-agencies is one place where you can still get decent carry, and if it's a good manager than capital appreciation too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 20, 2014, 10:36:57 AM
CNQ and XOM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 20, 2014, 08:14:48 PM
NBR and NFX, many energy names are on sales, missed the sharp rally on EOG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on October 21, 2014, 06:05:45 AM
I increased my LKQ position by 50% last week.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on October 21, 2014, 07:01:00 AM
Bought AMZN, PH, VZ, and COH on the day of the major decline.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on October 21, 2014, 07:18:52 AM
IBM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Eye4Valu on October 21, 2014, 10:38:23 AM
IBM

Exactly.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on October 22, 2014, 01:58:21 AM
IBM

Exactly.

Not cheap enough for me. Needs to lose another 10-20% before I'm interested.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on October 22, 2014, 12:44:34 PM
Possibly KN
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TorontoRaptorsFan on October 22, 2014, 03:11:08 PM
Under Armour (UA)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 22, 2014, 06:16:35 PM
Boralex (blx) on TSE.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on October 27, 2014, 09:40:51 AM
DVN AMZN FSLR
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on October 30, 2014, 11:58:43 AM
GG (Goldcorp)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on October 30, 2014, 01:07:28 PM
more xom this a.m.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on October 31, 2014, 09:10:57 AM
Amnf ... Reports record quarter after record quarter, increases dividend like clock work (3.5% yield), grows revenue and earnings at above normal rates. Still you don't pay for growth at current price.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on October 31, 2014, 09:47:35 AM
Amnf ... Reports record quarter after record quarter, increases dividend like clock work (3.5% yield), grows revenue and earnings at above normal rates. Still you don't pay for growth at current price.

Hi rpadebet - do you expect higher / faster growth to continue & what do you see as the moat for this business?  How is it possible to do high ROA / ROE ?  No competitors?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on October 31, 2014, 10:00:23 AM
Amnf ... Reports record quarter after record quarter, increases dividend like clock work (3.5% yield), grows revenue and earnings at above normal rates. Still you don't pay for growth at current price.

Hi rpadebet - do you expect higher / faster growth to continue & what do you see as the moat for this business?  How is it possible to do high ROA / ROE ?  No competitors?

I think we had this discussion last year in the AMNF thread itself. My thoughts haven't changed much since then. I am not sure of a moat presence here, but they are small enough for the growth to continue a while longer. They are growing by selling the same stuff in other geographies. The exit scenario I still think is, once they have a decent sized business, some major buys them at a big premium ( operating expenses are still big part of AMNFs expenses which to a major buyer is all synergy).

They made 0.036 EPS last quarter. Assume no more growth and they maintain this EPS for next year, they are @ 0.144 EPS. Stock trading at $2, so PE of <14. So you are not paying for growth and you get a very decent 3.6% dividend yield (approx 50% payout ratio)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gary17 on October 31, 2014, 10:05:03 AM
Amnf ... Reports record quarter after record quarter, increases dividend like clock work (3.5% yield), grows revenue and earnings at above normal rates. Still you don't pay for growth at current price.

Hi rpadebet - do you expect higher / faster growth to continue & what do you see as the moat for this business?  How is it possible to do high ROA / ROE ?  No competitors?

I think we had this discussion last year in the AMNF thread itself. My thoughts haven't changed much since then. I am not sure of a moat presence here, but they are small enough for the growth to continue a while longer. They are growing by selling the same stuff in other geographies. The exit scenario I still think is, once they have a decent sized business, some major buys them at a big premium ( operating expenses are still big part of AMNFs expenses which to a major buyer is all synergy).

They made 0.036 EPS last quarter. Assume no more growth and they maintain this EPS for next year, they are @ 0.144 EPS. Stock trading at $2, so PE of <14. So you are not paying for growth and you get a very decent 3.6% dividend yield (approx 50% payout ratio)

Thanks for the idea!
Will watch this!

Gary
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 04, 2014, 08:31:14 AM
ARCP

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Picasso on November 04, 2014, 09:45:01 AM
RCAP

Edit: Nevermind, I made a mistake in looking at part of their earnings.  Sold what I had purchased.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 10, 2014, 07:58:02 AM
Bought a small position in AUY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 10, 2014, 09:35:42 AM
And rebought some S&P puts.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on November 10, 2014, 09:51:33 AM
Genworth at one third of tangible book value.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: crastogi on November 10, 2014, 10:55:24 AM
Genworth at one third of tangible book value.

I have not looked at this in detail, but it did catch my eye with the big drop lately.  Question:  How confident are you that they will be able to offset losses caused in their LT care insurance business? 

Any write up I can refer to understand the nuances better?

Thanks
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 11, 2014, 08:35:35 AM
IWM Jan 2016 $115 Puts

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 11, 2014, 11:09:03 AM
LUKOIL

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on November 13, 2014, 06:46:19 AM
eca
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dutchman on November 13, 2014, 07:01:32 AM
Hawks, is encana strictly a bet on gas prices.  Have you compared it to chk?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 13, 2014, 08:12:01 AM
OGZPY (Gazprom) and SBRCY (Sberbank)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LC on November 13, 2014, 08:52:14 AM
Hawks, is encana strictly a bet on gas prices.  Have you compared it to chk?
Check their recent IR presentation, they've made some moves recently and are trying to transition into higher margin product. I actually think it looks interesting, the valuation seems amenable, and it showed up on Clipper's 13F recently.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 13, 2014, 01:18:50 PM
LGCY (Legacy Reserves Limited Partnership)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on November 13, 2014, 01:58:02 PM
dutchman    Not buying for the natural gas, but for their growing exposure to crude oil. With increasing gas asset sales and growing oil reserves, don't think the market yet realizes the transformation. And when some smaller crude oil companies struggle with lower crude prices, ECA will gobble them up on the cheap. Similar story as CHK but ECA is much stronger financially imo.
Also bought more SSW for their growing dividend and all new vessels are fully leased once again.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thecynic on November 14, 2014, 01:12:17 PM
ASPS, increased to a 10% position...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on November 17, 2014, 06:41:57 AM
OAK

Howard Marks, relatively cheap, some hedging as they will do best during times of distress.   I think stock is down right now because the dividend has been low for past few quarters.  It is basically a bet that divvy will bounce back at some point.   Certainly not my most researched stock but come on, it's Howard Marks!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on November 17, 2014, 09:07:11 AM
ASPS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on November 17, 2014, 12:37:39 PM
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Fat Pitch on November 18, 2014, 08:27:05 AM
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.

What are the odds Erbey doesn't take ASPS private?  I would hate to load up just to see a take-under from management.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on November 18, 2014, 08:38:12 AM
Wouldn't they need a lot more then 51% to do that? Seems like something like that would just attract a lot of negative unnecesairy attention in this already negative enviroment.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on November 18, 2014, 09:50:36 AM
ASPS

ASPS as well. I almost doubled my position today. Ex. OCN and Insurance kickbacks you still have ~50M in net income. This is 21x for a business growing at 25-35% yoy, a good value. Add to this any of the 100M+ of OCN related revenue (ex insurance kickbacks) and you are paying a sliding scale of 7-21x for company with a long runway of 25%+ growth in front of it.

What are the odds Erbey doesn't take ASPS private?  I would hate to load up just to see a take-under from management.

That's a tough question. What are the circumstances where it would make sense for Erbey to take ASPS private?

1- The reason Erbey has the OCN-ASPS setup he does is to maintain control of cash thrown off by servicing OCN's assets. About 40% of ASPS revenue does not come from OCN. So ASPS would survive if OCN were to close up shop. Erbey may use the money from an OCN runoff to buy ASPS shares at 20x non OCN net income. Certainly not a bad deal for him, but I believe he would go after another debt servicing co as it is his bread and butter, not software services.   

2- If OCN stays in business, ASPS will continue to run more or less as usual. ASPS buy back ~4M shares ($200M w/ leverage) at low price. This would bring Erbey's share 35%. He could take it private with PE money at this point. I'm not sure this is in Erbey's interest, it is much easier to control ASPS when you have a bunch of dumb money holding the majority of your firm rather than concentrating ownership with investment banks.

I view (1) as unlikely to happen. Why run a software company when he can buy back into a debt servicer? He could use the money generated by ASPS during an OCN runoff to repurchase shares along with leverage and increase his ownership to 35%+ and not have to answer to investment bankers and PE managers when running ASPS.

I think (2) could definitely happen. If this scenario plays out, surely the share price would recover somewhat and any buyout would likely be at a 20%+ premium.

To rephrase: I think ASPS minus OCN is not attractive to Erbey, and I think ASPS is too cheap if OCN stays in the picture.     
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on November 18, 2014, 10:49:15 AM
RDC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on November 18, 2014, 12:02:40 PM
Riken Keiki (TSE:7734)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 19, 2014, 11:26:56 AM
Finished buying my japanese basket today. Bought 9628, 1782, 4624, 9776, 7292, 5965, 7399 and 7297 over the last 2 months and have now around 25% of my networth in this basket.
Again thanks west for your incredible research!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on November 20, 2014, 07:10:51 AM
phg - finally spinning off the lighting/automotive business. Healthcare business should do well. Southeastern (Longleaf) just increased their position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 20, 2014, 07:52:36 AM
Intralot and NWH.AX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on November 20, 2014, 03:24:07 PM
Average up on CBI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: WeiChiLoh on November 20, 2014, 04:41:46 PM
SHLDW & BCOR.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 25, 2014, 11:07:06 AM
IWM Jan 2016 $115 puts

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 27, 2014, 08:08:38 PM
OUTR and more NWH.AX, this is now down to 33% of tangible book. I can`t really believe how fast this has fallen.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Arden on November 27, 2014, 10:53:15 PM
OUTR as well.

frommi, where can I read about the japanese basket you metioned?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on November 28, 2014, 08:01:32 AM
OUTR as well.

frommi, where can I read about the japanese basket you metioned?

west has posted a lot of these cheap gems in the Investment Idea section.
For example http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/7292-jp-murakami-corp/msg180197/#msg180197 (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/7292-jp-murakami-corp/msg180197/#msg180197)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on November 28, 2014, 08:44:04 AM
Bought:  BP and OGZPY (Gazprom)

Shorted:  ADBE (Adobe) and RAX (Rackspace)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BargainValueHunter on November 28, 2014, 10:12:37 AM
Sold ERF and PWE puts...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 02, 2014, 10:27:58 AM
Bought Softbank (SFTBY).  This is a combination SOTP / jockey play.   By my calcs, softbank is selling for about 10% less than it's AliBaba stake with remaining investments basically free.  Yes, it is more complicated because of tax issues but nevertheless the discount earlier this year was much smaller.   Alibaba is not cheap and sprint is getting it's butt kicked so I am relying very heavily on the NAV discount and/or Son's abilities to save the day.   

This is also my alternative to buying an ETF. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 02, 2014, 11:45:26 AM
Added to existing positions in EPD, USAC, and CLMT. 

1. In general, I view EPD as fairly protected against the recent collapse in oil prices (with respect to their focus on all hydrocarbons and their very high distribution coverage);
2. I think USAC has been unfairly pummeled by the market given that it derives 85% of their fees from placing their compression units with midstream natural gas projects (and 15% of their fees are associated with compression units on already-producing crude wells);
3.  CLMT is a specialty refiner that derives most of their EBITDA from Specialty products (lubricants, waxes, solvents).  They have a fairly small business (5%-10%) that sells drilling fluids...that will certainly be impacted, but I think a ~17% share price drop is a bit extreme.  More importantly, they are getting ready to ramp up their refinery in ND, and the lower oil/gas prices should encourage more driving, which will result in a higher demand for their specialty lubricants.   

I have been picking over the carnage in upstream companies, but so far I've avoided putting any money to work in that area.  Maybe I am being overly cautious, but I don't think the bottom is in for those companies yet.  Moreover, if experiences from the late 80's are any indication, it is likely that there will be a fairly long window in which to pick up beaten-down upstream companies before the crude cycle turns up.   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on December 02, 2014, 01:02:30 PM
I bough HAL, BBL and more SLB.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 02, 2014, 04:24:42 PM
Do you have more opinion on USAC? How are you weighting it in your portfolio (avg, under, or over)? Thanks!

Added to existing positions in EPD, USAC, and CLMT. 

1. In general, I view EPD as fairly protected against the recent collapse in oil prices (with respect to their focus on all hydrocarbons and their very high distribution coverage);
2. I think USAC has been unfairly pummeled by the market given that it derives 85% of their fees from placing their compression units with midstream natural gas projects (and 15% of their fees are associated with compression units on already-producing crude wells);
3.  CLMT is a specialty refiner that derives most of their EBITDA from Specialty products (lubricants, waxes, solvents).  They have a fairly small business (5%-10%) that sells drilling fluids...that will certainly be impacted, but I think a ~17% share price drop is a bit extreme.  More importantly, they are getting ready to ramp up their refinery in ND, and the lower oil/gas prices should encourage more driving, which will result in a higher demand for their specialty lubricants.   

I have been picking over the carnage in upstream companies, but so far I've avoided putting any money to work in that area.  Maybe I am being overly cautious, but I don't think the bottom is in for those companies yet.  Moreover, if experiences from the late 80's are any indication, it is likely that there will be a fairly long window in which to pick up beaten-down upstream companies before the crude cycle turns up.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 02, 2014, 06:37:05 PM
It is just under 6% of my portfolio.  I generally carry about 20-30 positions, so it is currently weighted a bit on the higher end than normal. 

I guess here is the 10-cent version of my thesis:
1.  85% of revenue is fee-based and generated from compression equipment installed in natural gas midstream applications.  This is pretty sticky, and the company states this in their most recent filings.  Think of it this way, you can't move natural gas through a gathering system or through a large natural gas trunk line (i.e. WMB's Transco pipeline) without compression.  These systems are long lasting, and they need compression for the life of the pipeline.   
2.  15% of revenue is fee-based and generated from gas-lift applications for crude wells.  After a well is drilled and completed, the crude output declines over time.  Producers employ secondary techniques (i.e. gas-lift) and tertiary techniques (water flooding) to improve the output of a well.  Assuming oil prices remain low for an extended period of time, the drilling of new wells will likely slow.  However, producers will desire to maintain/enhance output from existing wells by using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques.  Thus I suspect the use of compression units for gas-lift applications in crude wells will not collapse. 
3.  Their recent quarter was the first where they achieved a 1.0x distribution coverage.  During the previous quarters, the distribution coverage has been under 1.0x, but the controlling shareholders agreed to participate in the DRIP program rather than take distributions. 
4.  Their cash flow during the recent quarter was a substantial improvement from the previous quarter.  However it underestimates their true earning power because a substantial amount of new compression equipment had not been deployed for the entire quarter.
5.  They are ordering ~200k in new compression equipment for 2015, all for midstream applications.  The drop in crude should not impact new natural gas pipelines current under construction, thus the market will likely be able to absorb the new compression units. 
6.  Large, addressable market.  Compression can be provided by the producer or midstream operator.  However, many choose to outsource this work, so there is a large market with more opportunity to expand if desired.     
7.  Although USAC could operate profitably by itself, I suspect it would make a good acquisition target for one of the major oil service companies.     
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 02, 2014, 06:43:57 PM
Do you have more opinion on USAC? How are you weighting it in your portfolio (avg, under, or over)? Thanks!

In full disclosure, I should also note that my weighting may be a bit misleading.  For reasons I won't expand upon, I am unable to invest in companies that derive more than 10% of their revenues from food, drugs, biologics, medical devices, or tobacco.  Therefore my weighting in oil, oil services, and pipeline companies is likely to be higher than others may find prudent. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 02, 2014, 07:22:11 PM
For more information about compression, including a good overview of USAC's primary competitor. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/overview-natural-gas-compression-companies-181903522.html

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 04, 2014, 03:59:15 PM
For more information about compression, including a good overview of USAC's primary competitor. 

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/overview-natural-gas-compression-companies-181903522.html
shhughes1116 thank you so much for the additional insights!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on December 04, 2014, 05:21:49 PM
XOM and SU
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on December 07, 2014, 09:21:43 AM
Verizon.  With a 4.5% dividend yield, I don't even need the stock to do anything other than match inflation and I will do okay.   Seems like a good defensive bet.  Thanks to everyone who commented on the Verizon board.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 08, 2014, 07:55:03 AM
SBRCY (Sberbank)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on December 08, 2014, 08:34:09 AM
7% in NOV and 7% in BP
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: karthikpm on December 08, 2014, 08:40:36 AM
Added to BAC and Posco
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jay21 on December 08, 2014, 08:48:39 AM
Bought a few sweaters.

Since Sept. I have bought more OCN and ASPS. LVNTA and CKI.TO.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 08, 2014, 10:55:08 AM
YNDX USAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on December 08, 2014, 11:49:17 AM
Bought CBI common and 2017 $30 calls.  Currently trading sub-8x 2015 P/E per management guidance of $5.75-6.05 EPS.  Much lower than peers.

Two perceived problems with the company:

1) Bad nuclear contract - huge extras that may or may not be collected.  One-time issue.  Management is eager to buy back shares once this matter is resolved.

2) Low oil prices lowering future work demand - this is a known problem.  Company has $30B backlog which is equivalent to 2-yr of revenues.  Management commented during Q3 CC that they are somewhat insulated due to their diversification into various other infrastructure work.


Btw, today's price is about 30% lower than when Todd Comb bought them in 2014Q2.  BRK owns almost 10% of CBI.  ;)

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on December 08, 2014, 11:51:04 AM
Bought some more CLB.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BargainValueHunter on December 08, 2014, 12:20:34 PM
More SD, PWE and SHOS ITM calls.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 09, 2014, 11:25:33 AM
Bought Lukoil, covered my TSLA short.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on December 09, 2014, 11:32:57 AM
covered my TSLA short.

Out of curiosity, from what level were you shorting?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 09, 2014, 11:40:10 AM
covered my TSLA short.

Out of curiosity, from what level were you shorting?

$223

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on December 09, 2014, 11:40:54 AM
Thanks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on December 09, 2014, 11:47:29 AM
VZ @ $46.54

Adding to my duopoly basket!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 09, 2014, 11:51:26 AM
YNDX USAC

You get into USAC at sub-17.00?  I was traveling yesterday and it looks like I missed my opportunity to expand my position at a better price.  12% yield for USAC is a bit ridiculous, unless one thinks that we are no longer going to need oil and gas compression equipment. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 09, 2014, 12:49:28 PM
YNDX USAC

You get into USAC at sub-17.00?  I was traveling yesterday and it looks like I missed my opportunity to expand my position at a better price.  12% yield for USAC is a bit ridiculous, unless one thinks that we are no longer going to need oil and gas compression equipment.

Yep, thank you for the idea! I think it's priced for a 50% dividend cut.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 09, 2014, 12:50:55 PM
NBR
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 09, 2014, 03:16:01 PM
YNDX USAC

You get into USAC at sub-17.00?  I was traveling yesterday and it looks like I missed my opportunity to expand my position at a better price.  12% yield for USAC is a bit ridiculous, unless one thinks that we are no longer going to need oil and gas compression equipment.

Yep, thank you for the idea! I think it's priced for a 50% dividend cut.

Remember that the subordination period hasn't ended.  If they cut the distribution, the subordinated units will get their distributions whacked first. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 11, 2014, 07:45:53 AM
OGZPY (Gazprom)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on December 12, 2014, 09:38:43 AM
More KW...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on December 12, 2014, 09:56:32 AM
Nothing. Just sitting tight on my BRK & enjoying the thought of attacks of euphoria in Omaha whenever there is a swoon in the market.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on December 13, 2014, 07:12:23 PM
I covered my Netflix short somewhat recently.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 15, 2014, 12:14:37 PM
Lukoil

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 16, 2014, 08:01:48 AM
BP, LUKOY, OGZPY and SBRCY

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: compoundinglife on December 16, 2014, 08:25:30 AM
BP, LUKOY, OGZPY and SBRCY

Thanks,
Lance

LOL, Everyday that goes by where I see my LUKOY position get slaughted I think to myself "I wonder if Lance is going to post that he is buying more today"  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: investor-man on December 16, 2014, 08:27:20 AM
Haha, it's tough to look at LUKOY and not want to get in. I just can't make myself do it. It's a scary one.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 16, 2014, 08:32:02 AM
more NBR, YNDX, USAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 16, 2014, 09:29:06 AM
BP, LUKOY, OGZPY and SBRCY

Thanks,
Lance

LOL, Everyday that goes by where I see my LUKOY position get slaughted I think to myself "I wonder if Lance is going to post that he is buying more today"  :)


lol.  It's been painful.       

Thanks.   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on December 16, 2014, 10:16:04 AM
Bought a little bit of GNW today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on December 16, 2014, 10:51:07 AM
IBM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on December 16, 2014, 11:13:29 AM
ELDO
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on December 16, 2014, 11:36:16 AM
Almost CBI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Cunninghamew on December 16, 2014, 12:23:56 PM
starter in SSRG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 17, 2014, 07:36:18 AM
QIWI incredible FCF/ROI and a growth stock that pays dividend?!?!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on December 17, 2014, 08:00:44 AM
QIWI incredible FCF/ROI and a growth stock that pays dividend?!?!

What do you think about the devaluation of the ruble and the risk of default? I really like QIWI's numbers, just haven't digged into how exposed they are (do they lend out?) to the current situation. Obviously earnings will be affected, but apart from that?

EDIT: I bought Medallion Financial and Horsehead Holding myself
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 17, 2014, 08:43:53 AM
QIWI incredible FCF/ROI and a growth stock that pays dividend?!?!

What do you think about the devaluation of the ruble and the risk of default? I really like QIWI's numbers, just haven't digged into how exposed they are (do they lend out?) to the current situation. Obviously earnings will be affected, but apart from that?

EDIT: I bought Medallion Financial and Horsehead Holding myself

All of those are valid concerns. Hence it's only a 2% position for me. Since its a debit card servicer, its users put money into QIWI, I would think its liabilities would go down if Russia does default or further devalue.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kfh227 on December 17, 2014, 08:02:44 PM
I'm DCAing into SD and PWE tomorrow.

If BBRY drops to $9.75 or so I'll be buying some calls that expire on Friday.  Earnings are Friday before the open.  Hoping for good news that causes a short squeeze.  Of course, I think it is doubtful this early but it will happen in one of the next 4 quarters.  Too many things are going right at BBRY.  John Chen is doing an amazing job in the CEO spot.   It's just a matter of time till they turn a profit and start producing Free Cash Flows.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 18, 2014, 08:48:22 AM
GNW
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ham Hockers on December 18, 2014, 08:49:57 AM
Wish I'd bought FMD I guess.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on December 18, 2014, 08:57:20 AM
Started small positions in YNDX, QIWI, and CTCM. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 18, 2014, 10:41:24 AM
Started small positions in YNDX, QIWI, and CTCM. 

When you say small...are you saying ~1% positions?   Just curious...I have been looking at CTCM for quite some time and held off because of the price.  It is starting to get interesting for me. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on December 18, 2014, 11:45:21 AM
Started small positions in YNDX, QIWI, and CTCM. 

When you say small...are you saying ~1% positions?   Just curious...I have been looking at CTCM for quite some time and held off because of the price.  It is starting to get interesting for me.

Yeah, they're about 1% each.  I left some room to maybe add more if it goes down from here.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on December 18, 2014, 01:05:04 PM
FFH below $600.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: benchmark on December 21, 2014, 11:14:50 PM
It is just under 6% of my portfolio.  I generally carry about 20-30 positions, so it is currently weighted a bit on the higher end than normal. 

I guess here is the 10-cent version of my thesis:
1.  85% of revenue is fee-based and generated from compression equipment installed in natural gas midstream applications.  This is pretty sticky, and the company states this in their most recent filings.  Think of it this way, you can't move natural gas through a gathering system or through a large natural gas trunk line (i.e. WMB's Transco pipeline) without compression.  These systems are long lasting, and they need compression for the life of the pipeline.   
2.  15% of revenue is fee-based and generated from gas-lift applications for crude wells.  After a well is drilled and completed, the crude output declines over time.  Producers employ secondary techniques (i.e. gas-lift) and tertiary techniques (water flooding) to improve the output of a well.  Assuming oil prices remain low for an extended period of time, the drilling of new wells will likely slow.  However, producers will desire to maintain/enhance output from existing wells by using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques.  Thus I suspect the use of compression units for gas-lift applications in crude wells will not collapse. 
3.  Their recent quarter was the first where they achieved a 1.0x distribution coverage.  During the previous quarters, the distribution coverage has been under 1.0x, but the controlling shareholders agreed to participate in the DRIP program rather than take distributions. 
4.  Their cash flow during the recent quarter was a substantial improvement from the previous quarter.  However it underestimates their true earning power because a substantial amount of new compression equipment had not been deployed for the entire quarter.
5.  They are ordering ~200k in new compression equipment for 2015, all for midstream applications.  The drop in crude should not impact new natural gas pipelines current under construction, thus the market will likely be able to absorb the new compression units. 
6.  Large, addressable market.  Compression can be provided by the producer or midstream operator.  However, many choose to outsource this work, so there is a large market with more opportunity to expand if desired.     
7.  Although USAC could operate profitably by itself, I suspect it would make a good acquisition target for one of the major oil service companies.     

Do you have a price target?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on December 22, 2014, 06:48:59 AM
Started a position in CNSWF  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 22, 2014, 07:28:59 AM
last bit of ASPS, I don't understand the market reaction :(
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on December 22, 2014, 07:54:02 AM
GSK
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: shhughes1116 on December 22, 2014, 01:04:10 PM
It is just under 6% of my portfolio.  I generally carry about 20-30 positions, so it is currently weighted a bit on the higher end than normal. 

I guess here is the 10-cent version of my thesis:
1.  85% of revenue is fee-based and generated from compression equipment installed in natural gas midstream applications.  This is pretty sticky, and the company states this in their most recent filings.  Think of it this way, you can't move natural gas through a gathering system or through a large natural gas trunk line (i.e. WMB's Transco pipeline) without compression.  These systems are long lasting, and they need compression for the life of the pipeline.   
2.  15% of revenue is fee-based and generated from gas-lift applications for crude wells.  After a well is drilled and completed, the crude output declines over time.  Producers employ secondary techniques (i.e. gas-lift) and tertiary techniques (water flooding) to improve the output of a well.  Assuming oil prices remain low for an extended period of time, the drilling of new wells will likely slow.  However, producers will desire to maintain/enhance output from existing wells by using secondary and tertiary recovery techniques.  Thus I suspect the use of compression units for gas-lift applications in crude wells will not collapse. 
3.  Their recent quarter was the first where they achieved a 1.0x distribution coverage.  During the previous quarters, the distribution coverage has been under 1.0x, but the controlling shareholders agreed to participate in the DRIP program rather than take distributions. 
4.  Their cash flow during the recent quarter was a substantial improvement from the previous quarter.  However it underestimates their true earning power because a substantial amount of new compression equipment had not been deployed for the entire quarter.
5.  They are ordering ~200k in new compression equipment for 2015, all for midstream applications.  The drop in crude should not impact new natural gas pipelines current under construction, thus the market will likely be able to absorb the new compression units. 
6.  Large, addressable market.  Compression can be provided by the producer or midstream operator.  However, many choose to outsource this work, so there is a large market with more opportunity to expand if desired.     
7.  Although USAC could operate profitably by itself, I suspect it would make a good acquisition target for one of the major oil service companies.     

Do you have a price target?

Yeah.  I suppose there are two ways to value this company.  On an EV/EBITDA basis and on a yield basis.  USAC has equity of $700 million and debt of $500 million, so enterprise value of $1.2 billion.  Their run-rate EBITDA, coming out of the third quarter, was $27 million per quarter.  As I stated in my earlier post, I think this underestimates their earning power because not all of their new compression equipment was installed for the duration of the third quarter.  So let's assume that their quarterly run rate will be ~$30 million exiting the fourth quarter.  Move over, they are adding another 200k HP in compression equipment next year, so about another 20% increase in HP.  So let's assume a quarterly run rate of ~$35 million by q42015.  That yields an EV/EBITDA of 8.5.  I think an oil services firm would be willing to pay 10x given some of the cost synergies they could realize, so maybe $20/share based on annualized earnings from q42015. 

You could also value USAC based on yield.  I see a 10% yield being reasonable given the nature of their business, which also yields a target share price of ~$20 given their current distribution. 


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on December 23, 2014, 07:09:45 AM
OCN 13.005 3% position
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: premfan on December 23, 2014, 07:49:16 AM
I'm buying cash.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on December 23, 2014, 08:39:34 AM
I'm buying cash.

LOL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on December 23, 2014, 08:47:54 AM
I'm buying cash.

LOL

How is this value investing. Cash seems expensive @ 1000 PE. 2000 PE if you consider taxes.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on December 23, 2014, 08:51:48 AM
I bought BBRY at 9.71 two days before earning release on 12/19. Forgot to post here.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on December 26, 2014, 03:36:03 PM
I took a small position in Lukoil today.  It appears I missed the bottom by several weeks.  Nonetheless, it still seems very cheap.  I'm only taking a small position due to the political uncertainly which is anyone's guess. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on December 26, 2014, 03:57:16 PM
I bought 100 shares of USO purely as a hedge against a future rise in oil prices.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BG2008 on December 28, 2014, 07:53:27 AM
If I recall correctly, USO Is a terrible instrument if there is contango in the forward curve.  You should look into that and see how contango eats away at the performance of USO. 

I bought 100 shares of USO purely as a hedge against a future rise in oil prices.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 28, 2014, 08:20:49 AM
If I recall correctly, USO Is a terrible instrument if there is contango in the forward curve.  You should look into that and see how contango eats away at the performance of USO. 

I bought 100 shares of USO purely as a hedge against a future rise in oil prices.

BG2008 - one of the funds I work with uses USL (United States 12 Month Oil ETF) rather than USO precisely for this reason.  From Commodityhq.com, "USL invests in the next twelve months’ contracts, allowing the fund to reflect the average price of a light, sweet crude oil contract over the coming year."

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Straddle on December 28, 2014, 09:30:20 AM
ESV
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: JBird on December 28, 2014, 01:57:02 PM
Thanks for bringing that up! Much appreciated.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on December 29, 2014, 07:09:34 AM
Senvest Capital and Intralot
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on December 29, 2014, 07:46:09 AM
TWTR calls and WBAI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on December 29, 2014, 08:09:47 AM
CHKDG

The $100 note trading at $94.5 will float back to a slight $2 to $3 premium after the shock from the slide in oil wears off. The trade should make 8-9% plus dividends in the meantime. Low hanging fruit for 13% - 20% annualized ror. 

I made a similar trade back when CHK was running their going out of business sale.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on December 29, 2014, 09:08:10 AM
I bought SHLD and shorted IWM.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on December 29, 2014, 09:18:05 AM
SYF
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on December 29, 2014, 11:29:12 AM

IEHC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yader on January 05, 2015, 11:01:26 AM
Starer position in SSW.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hawks on January 05, 2015, 11:04:37 AM
Added a little to my positions in bac, c, ssw, phg, ffh.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on January 05, 2015, 12:44:46 PM
GILD and SSW
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 06, 2015, 07:08:11 AM
Very small amount of GREK (Global X FTSE Greece 20 ETF)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LowIQinvestor on January 06, 2015, 08:35:08 AM
My outstanding buy order on IBM was just filled!

$155 is a good price in my mind.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 06, 2015, 08:39:52 AM
Added to my IWM short and bought small amounts of EWI (iShares MSCI Italy Capped ETF) and PGAL (Global X FTSE Portugal 20 ETF).

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 06, 2015, 10:20:07 AM
HCG.TO
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Danger Zone on January 07, 2015, 11:59:50 AM
Initiated a position in PM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on January 08, 2015, 07:49:09 AM
DISCK
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 09, 2015, 08:40:16 AM
EWP (iShares MSCI Spain Capped ETF)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 09, 2015, 01:40:32 PM
HCG.TO

Are you not worried about the CDN housing market? What will happen to HCG earnings  if the market corrects 40-50%?

I'm not done buying yet. So yes I am very concerned. Please short HCG!

 A few reasons why I think the concern is overblown:
- Most mortgages in Canada are full-recourse. Strategic default isn't an option so a dramatic, nationwide drop (like the U.S.) is very unlikely. It also means that unemployment is the key metric to watch. As long as borrowers are employed, HCG would be able to recover a significant portion of any defaults even if houses were underwater.
- HCG has a Loan-to-value ratio on its uninsured portfolio of 65%. That means that house prices would need to drop 35% and borrowers would need to default before their would be significant losses.
- Why would house prices drop 40-50%? The most likely cause would be a dramatic spike in mortgage rates. Do you see any evidence of that happening anytime soon?
- Unlike U.S. lenders, HCG keeps most of its loans on its own books. It has a very large incentive to maintain credit quality.
- Most of HCG's loans are in Ontario. Ontario should benefit from the low Canadian dollar.

Am I worried about Canadian house prices? I have been worried since at least 2000. In the meantime, HCG has grown 24% per annum.

At a 10x PE for a stock growing 15% per year, I think I am getting compensated for the risk. I just wish it was cheaper. In 2013, I think I was buying it at 8x not 10x.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 09, 2015, 02:34:46 PM
Thank KClarkin for your analysis. 

I would just add this has been consistently one of Jason Donville's top picks for years and for essentially the reasons that you listed.  I wasn't aware though that they were more focused on Ontario, it definitely strengthens the thesis.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 09, 2015, 03:27:44 PM
Thank KClarkin for your analysis. 

I would just add this has been consistently one of Jason Donville's top picks for years and for essentially the reasons that you listed.  I wasn't aware though that they were more focused on Ontario, it definitely strengthens the thesis.

78% of loans are in Ontario. Only 5% in Alberta. Geographic concentration is a risk but the limited supply of detached homes in GTA (due to provincial policies) does partially justify the astronomical prices in Toronto.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on January 09, 2015, 03:58:08 PM
- Most mortgages in Canada are full-recourse. Strategic default isn't an option so a dramatic, nationwide drop (like the U.S.) is very unlikely.

So it's just like Florida, which is also a full-recourse mortgage locale.

Yet Florida had a large decline.  I think it was one of the hardest hit US markets.

Would the US decline have been less severe if the entire country was full-recourse, just like Florida?  I can't see what to make of the full-recourse aspect if Florida was one of the hardest hit states. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Hielko on January 09, 2015, 04:18:11 PM
I also find that part of the argument non-convincing. The Netherlands (my home country) has full-recourse mortgages, but in the eighties we had a nice 50% drop in house prices. The drop since 2008 has been a lot more gradual and is currently at -20%, but its still sizable. I bet there are plenty examples of countries with full-recourse mortgages and large price swings. I don't know if the intuitive idea of full-recourse is higher risk is supported by the historical data.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Granitepost on January 09, 2015, 05:51:32 PM
Please allow me to draw your attention to the large appreciation in Toronto real estate prices in the Spring of 1974 (about 35% in a few months I think), which prompted the Government of Ontario to enact the Land Speculation Tax Act, 1974.   This Act provided tax on capital gains on houses in excess of 100% of the gain and resulted in the killing of the market for houses for an extended period.  The resultant lack of liquidity and uncertainty about market price of properties caused a major disruption in the market as speculators who had bought several houses were unable to sell.  Other periods like 1989 were not as severe as 1974 in many respects.   It is not mentioned these days because it was an Ontario centric event and was before many of our Board members were born, but is indicative of the fact that you just never know what will happen in any market and what will be the cause a disruption.   The 1974 Act was I believe repealed a few years later and after a while the market gradually recovered.   I remember speaking to a real estate agent at the time.  When I asked her what the market was like, she simply said there was no market.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 09, 2015, 06:18:01 PM
Why didn't the Canadian housing bubble collapse in 2008? And if it didn't collapse in 2008 during a worldwide financial panic, why would it collapse in 2015?

America's sub-prime lender (Countrywide) had delinquent loans of 11%, 15%, 19% in 2004, 2005, 2006. Canada's sub-prime lender (Home Capital) had delinquent loans of 0.35% in 2013.

"The bubble in America was caused by some combination of megalomania, insanity and evil in, I would say, investment banking, mortgage banking,” Charlie Munger.


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on January 09, 2015, 06:33:59 PM
In 2008 Canadians were not levered like they are today. Anyway, I'm not saying to short HCG or any of the Canadian banks. The only way to play it I think is to sell your house and go rent for a while. I find it interesting that the CEO's of 5 of the 6 big banks all retired at the end of 2014. I wonder why???
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on January 09, 2015, 06:50:09 PM
Canadian housing bubble collapse didn't occur because a big part of the financial crisis was the liquidity crisis. US banks also were much more heavily invested in derivatives that enhanced the liquidity squeezes many financial institutions experienced. The Canada Sands in the west were the Bakkan of today and fertilizer prices were significantly higher. Exports of resources in general kept Canada a float. US banks in general, at the time, were much more leveraged than Canadian banks. Canadian banks have oligopoly protection which kept credit ratings artificially high. Consumer debt has increased consistently throughout the crisis, buoying the economy.

The issue in Canada is that average appraisal values of homes have risen at an unsustainable pace for a number of years. Low LTV cannot protect from the drop required based on how over priced the housing market is. Will it ever correct? If so, when and by how much? Canada looks terrible on paper right now. I worked as a financial analyst for a major Canadian bank (mostly on the US side) but I have not worked there in a few years. I sold all my stock in the bank as soon as I was able. I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).

http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-market-slides-2015-1
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/26/the-imf-cant-stop-worrying-about-canadas-potential-housing-bubble/
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/01/housing-bubble-will-force-bank-of-canada-to-renew-rate-hike-warnings-soon-pimco-says/
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sp150611.pdf
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on January 09, 2015, 07:20:19 PM
Canadian housing bubble collapse didn't occur because a big part of the financial crisis was the liquidity crisis. US banks also were much more heavily invested in derivatives that enhanced the liquidity squeezes many financial institutions experienced. The Canada Sands in the west were the Bakkan of today and fertilizer prices were significantly higher. Exports of resources in general kept Canada a float. US banks in general, at the time, were much more leveraged than Canadian banks. Canadian banks have oligopoly protection which kept credit ratings artificially high. Consumer debt has increased consistently throughout the crisis, buoying the economy.

The issue in Canada is that average appraisal values of homes have risen at an unsustainable pace for a number of years. Low LTV cannot protect from the drop required based on how over priced the housing market is. Will it ever correct? If so, when and by how much? Canada looks terrible on paper right now. I worked as a financial analyst for a major Canadian bank (mostly on the US side) but I have not worked there in a few years. I sold all my stock in the bank as soon as I was able. I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).

http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-housing-market-slides-2015-1
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/11/26/the-imf-cant-stop-worrying-about-canadas-potential-housing-bubble/
http://business.financialpost.com/2014/10/01/housing-bubble-will-force-bank-of-canada-to-renew-rate-hike-warnings-soon-pimco-says/
http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/sp150611.pdf


Ya Canada does look terrible right now. The consumer is tapped out and you have falling commodity prices.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 10, 2015, 04:47:53 AM
Ya Canada does look terrible right now. The consumer is tapped out and you have falling commodity prices.

"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism." - Sir John Templeton
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Range on January 10, 2015, 05:04:27 AM
Ya Canada does look terrible right now. The consumer is tapped out and you have falling commodity prices.

"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism." - Sir John Templeton

While that is a good quote, I hardly think it applies here.

Shares of HCG were up almost 20% in 2014.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on January 10, 2015, 05:59:33 AM
Ya Canada does look terrible right now. The consumer is tapped out and you have falling commodity prices.

"Invest at the point of maximum pessimism." - Sir John Templeton

While that is a good quote, I hardly think it applies here.

Shares of HCG were up almost 20% in 2014.

The quote was in reference to the negative sentiment on Canada not HCG. I don't think we're at the point of maximum pessimism on Canada yet but the other half of the quote "sell at the point of maximum optimism" may apply to the U.S. market.

If HCG falls another 20%, then I will open a thread for more debate. At current prices, I am aware of the risks and the position is sized appropriately.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 10, 2015, 06:48:42 AM
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on January 10, 2015, 08:25:04 AM
With house prices at all time highs, I highly doubt Templeton would think we are at the point of maximum pessimism.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on January 12, 2015, 07:52:50 AM
PCLN and GOOG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on January 12, 2015, 09:17:34 AM
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?

Housing prices have to correct by 40% over time in real terms. If there's a 10% drop over 5 years with 4% growth then we are 30% of the way there. Just about every metric for Canada points to housing being 100% overpriced and the average of the metrics implies 40% drop is necessary. Unless money leaves these housing prices can persist but lending is dropping for a reason (which makes the problem worse faster). EDIT: To go with this, the US housing market is still overvalued because numerous interferences stopped the market from dropping. We will likely see flat housing prices with fast GDP growth to finish the correction while Canada may not have the luxury of positive GDP to save them.

Also, the point of maximum pessimism is not even close for the Canadian housing market. If anything, this is maximum exuberance.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 12, 2015, 09:30:25 AM
QIWI

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on January 12, 2015, 10:04:42 AM
QIWI

Thanks,
Lance

I'm hoping to buy some more too below $20 a share!  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Patmo on January 12, 2015, 07:10:52 PM
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?

Housing prices have to correct by 40% over time in real terms. If there's a 10% drop over 5 years with 4% growth then we are 30% of the way there. Just about every metric for Canada points to housing being 100% overpriced and the average of the metrics implies 40% drop is necessary. Unless money leaves these housing prices can persist but lending is dropping for a reason (which makes the problem worse faster). EDIT: To go with this, the US housing market is still overvalued because numerous interferences stopped the market from dropping. We will likely see flat housing prices with fast GDP growth to finish the correction while Canada may not have the luxury of positive GDP to save them.

Also, the point of maximum pessimism is not even close for the Canadian housing market. If anything, this is maximum exuberance.

Yeah no kidding, don't know what this other guy is talking about with his maximum pessimism. Everybody's still leveraging themselves up the ass for crappy homes at 10x their salary, and singing about it.

Back on topic, I picked up a few more shares of KRN Karnalyte. Keeping it a small position, but pretty excited about the prospects of a company trading at 55% net cash, with a catalyst in early stages of ignition. It's like a net-net on steroids...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: benchmark on January 12, 2015, 09:06:26 PM
Quote
I think the diversification into the US for most will ultimately lessen the blow but the market has to drop by 40%+ (whether in a year or over a period of years).
Schwab, which market will drop by 40%?  Housing, energy stocks, tsx?

Housing prices have to correct by 40% over time in real terms. If there's a 10% drop over 5 years with 4% growth then we are 30% of the way there. Just about every metric for Canada points to housing being 100% overpriced and the average of the metrics implies 40% drop is necessary. Unless money leaves these housing prices can persist but lending is dropping for a reason (which makes the problem worse faster). EDIT: To go with this, the US housing market is still overvalued because numerous interferences stopped the market from dropping. We will likely see flat housing prices with fast GDP growth to finish the correction while Canada may not have the luxury of positive GDP to save them.

Also, the point of maximum pessimism is not even close for the Canadian housing market. If anything, this is maximum exuberance.

Yeah no kidding, don't know what this other guy is talking about with his maximum pessimism. Everybody's still leveraging themselves up the ass for crappy homes at 10x their salary, and singing about it.

Back on topic, I picked up a few more shares of KRN Karnalyte. Keeping it a small position, but pretty excited about the prospects of a company trading at 55% net cash, with a catalyst in early stages of ignition. It's like a net-net on steroids...

BAC Jan17 leaps
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on January 13, 2015, 06:44:22 AM
Started a position in PCLN and added more CLB.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 15, 2015, 06:36:34 AM
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Uccmal on January 15, 2015, 08:08:44 AM
In the past few days:

Mullen Trucking: MTL - originally an oil services trucking company.  They have diversified into trucking across Canada, which will do well in the cheap fuel environment.  I held this in 2005 to 2008.  FFH bought private notes from Mullen in 2009 to help Mullen survive the crunch and of course make money for Fairfax.  Really well run and easy to understand. 

ARX - Arc Resources - Smallish position.  I held this in 2005-2008 time as well.  Very well run, large E&P company.  Well hedged into this downturn. 

Russell Metals - RUS - huge metal distributor.  Trading down due to part of its business being related to the oil industry.  One concern: Dividend payout is close to 100% but they can probably handle it.  It is basically an inventory turn company.  Non-oil business may accelerate in the US and Canada. 

FN - Canadian mortgage company - 70% privately held.  This is my mortgage company, and the largest non- bank mortgage lender in Canada.  I am still working on understanding it fully.  It is basically a mortgage securitization company.  I am trying to determine their liability to the mortgages they have securitized.  They dont do commercial real estate at all. 

I will add that I am not commenting further on any of these for now.  If you are interested, read the financials and come to your own conclusions.  I dont want to influence anyone with my viewpoints.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on January 15, 2015, 10:10:56 AM
BAC common.  Thanks to all who have posted to the thread, some excellent analysis in there.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on January 15, 2015, 10:44:08 AM
CLB and NOV
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kirkomi on January 15, 2015, 10:55:03 PM
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.

I can't find any new ideas. Would you mind sharing the names. I will like to do my due diligence.

Regards.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Patmo on January 16, 2015, 05:30:52 AM
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.

Let's see how you react when 2 of your 3 positions go down 50-75% in price. Are you ready to stand such volatility?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 16, 2015, 06:47:52 AM

I can't find any new ideas. Would you mind sharing the names. I will like to do my due diligence.

Regards.

FFH (27%)
OUTR (10% Common + 5% LEAPs)
AIQ (10%)
SEC.TO (10%)
Intralot (10%)
PKX (10%)
NRW.AX (5%)
9628.JP (5%)
5965.JP (3%)
7292.JP (3%)

Let's see how you react when 2 of your 3 positions go down 50-75% in price. Are you ready to stand such volatility?

I think its a lot easier when you know what you own and have stress tested this beforehand. Most of my businesses are recession prove and SEC and FFH are diversified in itself. Overall i think that the correlation between these businesses is really small.
I am pretty sure that i will not be happy if i get those drawdowns, but i don`t think that more diversification is helping me to achieve my goals.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: benbuffett on January 16, 2015, 08:31:20 AM
Finished building a 10% position in AIQ. 2015 will be my concentration test year, i have now 50% in 3 stocks and 80% in 6. I am still under the impression that i am sufficient diversified.


Hi Frommi,

Thats a concentrated portfolio you have. What percentage of cash do you hold in the portfolio? Like Patmo mentioned. How would you react to a large draw down on 2 or 3 of your holdings?

What works for Michael Bury, Mohnish Pabrai, or even Warren Buffetts early partnership days might not work as well for an individual.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 16, 2015, 09:36:25 AM

Hi Frommi,

Thats a concentrated portfolio you have. What percentage of cash do you hold in the portfolio? Like Patmo mentioned. How would you react to a large draw down on 2 or 3 of your holdings?

1% cash, i am still working so i don`t see a reason to hold a larger cash stake (but the yearly contributions are smaller than 10% now). In case of a drawdown i do nothing as long as the businesses progress as i expect them to, what else should i do? Sell? :)

What works for Michael Bury, Mohnish Pabrai, or even Warren Buffetts early partnership days might not work as well for an individual.

I am a cloner and i clone everything that works. The math says more diversification doesn`t reduce risk significantly but reduces returns. There are so many threads in this forum where you can find evidence for this. Most people talk about diversification and the 100 businesses they have in their portfolio but then overlook that most of these are correlated anyway.
In the end everybody has to do what works for them and since i noticed that 70-80% of the stocks i buy go up 2-4 weeks after i bought, i thought i can reduce the number of my holdings. Thats the advantage of being a good market timer, though its of course not necessary to be one when you are a good value investor.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on January 16, 2015, 07:32:23 PM

BAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on January 17, 2015, 04:18:49 PM

I think its a lot easier when you know what you own and have stress tested this beforehand. Most of my businesses are recession prove and SEC and FFH are diversified in itself. Overall i think that the correlation between these businesses is really small.
I am pretty sure that i will not be happy if i get those drawdowns, but i don`t think that more diversification is helping me to achieve my goals.

Most of the concentrated investors had portfolios consisting of nearly iron clad moats or hard asset values. FFH should be fine, but I have no idea of the moatiness of the rest of your portfolio. Do you think the rest have solid moats?


Vinod
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 17, 2015, 10:52:47 PM
Most of the concentrated investors had portfolios consisting of nearly iron clad moats or hard asset values. FFH should be fine, but I have no idea of the moatiness of the rest of your portfolio. Do you think the rest have solid moats?

Vinod

You can look up all my holdings in the Investment Idea section. NRW.AX and the japanese stocks are mainly asset plays (thats the reason that these stocks are all smaller holdings), the rest have something in place that protects the cashflows for the next years. PKX is the lowest cost steel producer (though i am not sure if the currency wars deteriorate that one).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on January 18, 2015, 06:51:20 AM
I've researched most of the names you hold and I own a couple of them too. That said, I think your portfolio is extremely risky and unless you are as great an investor as Packer there is a non-trivial chance of permanent loss of capital "experimenting with a concentrated portfolio". If you are retired I would say this is a horrible strategy but I assume you are young and do not depend on your portfolio for income. In that case it it just, well, risky ☺.

Just my 2 cents, please don't feel offended.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 18, 2015, 07:41:33 AM
I've researched most of the names you hold and I own a couple of them too. That said, I think your portfolio is extremely risky and unless you are as great an investor as Packer there is a non-trivial chance of permanent loss of capital "experimenting with a concentrated portfolio". If you are retired I would say this is a horrible strategy but I assume you are young and do not depend on your portfolio for income. In that case it it just, well, risky ☺.

Just my 2 cents, please don't feel offended.

Thanks for your honest words, but how exactly do you quantify risky? From my point of view there is no single risk that i know of that is able to erase more than 25% of my portfolio in one fellow swipe.
I mean look at Monish Pabrais portfolio of BAC,C,GM,FIAT,PKX. Thats cars, steel and banking. All are heavily correlated to the US/world economy, i would call this at least double to triple as risky as my portfolio.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on January 18, 2015, 09:26:49 AM
A 2008 style crisis can erase 25% from ANY portfolio. Charlie Munger once said you should expect a 50% drawdown at some point in your career (and he experienced it too if I'm not mistaken).

Just to give some bad scenarios: Senvest (which I hold too) is basically a leveraged bet on the stockmarket. In a downturn both its portfolio will decline quickly and clients withdraw assets. Their fund holds quite a few speculative positions. In 2013 Senvest was up 100%, I think it could easily go down 50% or more in a bad year.

In such a year your OUTR options would expire worthlessly as well. I own a couple of your Japan holdings too. I think they are good bets but let's be honest, we invest in these companies from our couch in Europe and we don't know anything about them. Fujimak etc could easily decline 50% for some reason we don't know yet. If they are cooking the books, how could we ever know?

Most of your holdings are smallcaps and I don't know enough about them but you can't rule out anything bad happening in these - they are no Berkshires or Exxons.  And god forbid something terrible happens at Fairfax. Or suppose the euro crisis is over and the euro appreciates by 40% in a year - you'll underperform by roughly that percentage.

Also, the point of diversification is not only to be protected from the risks you "know" but also that your portfolio can withstand the risks you "don't know". If something "unknown" happens with Fairfax you are down 25% instantly.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on January 18, 2015, 09:36:07 AM
Most of the concentrated investors had portfolios consisting of nearly iron clad moats or hard asset values. FFH should be fine, but I have no idea of the moatiness of the rest of your portfolio. Do you think the rest have solid moats?

Vinod

You can look up all my holdings in the Investment Idea section. NRW.AX and the japanese stocks are mainly asset plays (thats the reason that these stocks are all smaller holdings), the rest have something in place that protects the cashflows for the next years. PKX is the lowest cost steel producer (though i am not sure if the currency wars deteriorate that one).

When Buffett is doing concentrated investing he is finding deep values with a very large margin of safety:

1. Western Insurance - it earned $22 and $29 the previous two years and he is buying at something like $3 to $13 per share.

2. National American Fire Insurance - Good capital allocator at the helm, with book value of $135 and earning $29 and he is buying in the stock in the $30s.

That is margin of safety.

Or he is buying Coke and Amex with near impregnable moats.

In either case margin of safety is pretty high. That is when he concentrates his portfolio.

This kind of concentrated portfolio does not work if applied to marginal businesses. Being recession resistant is not really the key, as there are many ways to lose, it is not just to economic cycle.

Again, just a note of friendly caution to a fellow board member.

Vinod

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on January 18, 2015, 09:49:13 AM

What about Soros and the Quantum fund, doesn't that one have hundreds of holdings and an extraordinary record?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on January 18, 2015, 09:53:19 AM

What about Soros and the Quantum fund, doesn't that one have hundreds of holdings and an extraordinary record?

Isn't that a macro fund, though? Kind of like Dalio's fund. Different approach. He mostly buys asset classes rather than businesses, afaik.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 18, 2015, 10:47:39 AM
A 2008 style crisis can erase 25% from ANY portfolio. Charlie Munger once said you should expect a 50% drawdown at some point in your career (and he experienced it too if I'm not mistaken).

Just to give some bad scenarios: Senvest (which I hold too) is basically a leveraged bet on the stockmarket. In a downturn both its portfolio will decline quickly and clients withdraw assets. Their fund holds quite a few speculative positions. In 2013 Senvest was up 100%, I think it could easily go down 50% or more in a bad year.

In such a year your OUTR options would expire worthlessly as well. I own a couple of your Japan holdings too. I think they are good bets but let's be honest, we invest in these companies from our couch in Europe and we don't know anything about them. Fujimak etc could easily decline 50% for some reason we don't know yet. If they are cooking the books, how could we ever know?

Most of your holdings are smallcaps and I don't know enough about them but you can't rule out anything bad happening in these - they are no Berkshires or Exxons.  And god forbid something terrible happens at Fairfax. Or suppose the euro crisis is over and the euro appreciates by 40% in a year - you'll underperform by roughly that percentage.

Also, the point of diversification is not only to be protected from the risks you "know" but also that your portfolio can withstand the risks you "don't know". If something "unknown" happens with Fairfax you are down 25% instantly.

Ok i agree with you, i have a risky portfolio. Please don`t copy me, looks like i will probably blow up next year because at the same time we get earthquakes all over the country wiping out Toronto and New York, the stock market will decline by 50% and the euro will appreciate by 40%. Steel is now worthless because everything is build of aluminium and japan will get nuked by china erasing the country from the map. Oh and there is a wonder drug against cancer, nobody watches rental DVDs anymore and online gaming/lotteries are prohibited worldwide. All in one year! ( Just kidding :) )
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on January 20, 2015, 01:50:34 PM
Ok i agree with you, i have a risky portfolio. Please don`t copy me, looks like i will probably blow up next year because at the same time we get earthquakes all over the country wiping out Toronto and New York, the stock market will decline by 50% and the euro will appreciate by 40%. Steel is now worthless because everything is build of aluminium and japan will get nuked by china erasing the country from the map. Oh and there is a wonder drug against cancer, nobody watches rental DVDs anymore and online gaming/lotteries are prohibited worldwide. All in one year! ( Just kidding :) )

Mr. Market does not like your jokes apparently.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 21, 2015, 05:48:04 AM
Ok i agree with you, i have a risky portfolio. Please don`t copy me, looks like i will probably blow up next year because at the same time we get earthquakes all over the country wiping out Toronto and New York, the stock market will decline by 50% and the euro will appreciate by 40%. Steel is now worthless because everything is build of aluminium and japan will get nuked by china erasing the country from the map. Oh and there is a wonder drug against cancer, nobody watches rental DVDs anymore and online gaming/lotteries are prohibited worldwide. All in one year! ( Just kidding :) )

Mr. Market does not like your jokes apparently.

Yes it has this brutal way of telling me that i am a fool. :)
But aside from that i still don`t know if nobody watches rental DVDs anymore is now true or not.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on January 21, 2015, 06:04:42 AM
Ok i agree with you, i have a risky portfolio. Please don`t copy me, looks like i will probably blow up next year because at the same time we get earthquakes all over the country wiping out Toronto and New York, the stock market will decline by 50% and the euro will appreciate by 40%. Steel is now worthless because everything is build of aluminium and japan will get nuked by china erasing the country from the map. Oh and there is a wonder drug against cancer, nobody watches rental DVDs anymore and online gaming/lotteries are prohibited worldwide. All in one year! ( Just kidding :) )

Mr. Market does not like your jokes apparently.

Yes it has this brutal way of telling me that i am a fool. :)
But aside from that i still don`t know if nobody watches rental DVDs anymore is now true or not.

You can still rent DVDs? lol
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on January 21, 2015, 06:33:49 AM
Bought some IBM.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on January 27, 2015, 08:04:52 AM
Bought some more NWH.AX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on January 27, 2015, 08:07:13 AM
More GILD
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 27, 2015, 08:48:16 AM
MBT

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kfh227 on January 27, 2015, 06:39:56 PM
Ok i agree with you, i have a risky portfolio. Please don`t copy me, looks like i will probably blow up next year because at the same time we get earthquakes all over the country wiping out Toronto and New York, the stock market will decline by 50% and the euro will appreciate by 40%. Steel is now worthless because everything is build of aluminium and japan will get nuked by china erasing the country from the map. Oh and there is a wonder drug against cancer, nobody watches rental DVDs anymore and online gaming/lotteries are prohibited worldwide. All in one year! ( Just kidding :) )

Mr. Market does not like your jokes apparently.

Yes it has this brutal way of telling me that i am a fool. :)
But aside from that i still don`t know if nobody watches rental DVDs anymore is now true or not.

People that say that tend to live in bubbles. I'm sure that there are areas of hte country where people can't afford broadband and Netflix and whatnot.  They probably do DVD rentals.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on January 28, 2015, 06:41:56 AM
GREK

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on January 28, 2015, 08:07:59 AM
MAT
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on January 29, 2015, 09:43:04 AM
CLB and RAVN
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ATLValue on January 29, 2015, 10:12:11 AM
MAT

Also bought some MAT this week
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on January 29, 2015, 10:15:05 AM
GOOG & PRAA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bigbluffzinc on January 29, 2015, 11:39:24 AM
Looking at RYAM, posted some thoughts here if anyone wants to take a look and let me know what they think.  (Established a small position)

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/ryam-rayonier-advanced-materials/30/

I also established a large position in Amaya at $27 but will likely add pre-earnings report due to the strength of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar impacting the price more than recognition of underlying value.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on February 03, 2015, 12:27:55 PM
Initiated a position in CPSI.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on February 03, 2015, 12:47:27 PM
EDV

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 03, 2015, 01:00:09 PM
Bought more NOV (exited the last of my FCAU for that)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: undervalued on February 03, 2015, 01:27:38 PM
Sold BPY and initiated CBI.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on February 04, 2015, 10:50:26 AM
CBI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on February 06, 2015, 07:30:00 AM
LNG  8)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orion on February 06, 2015, 10:41:12 AM
MCR (Macro Enterprises) + LBRDA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on February 06, 2015, 11:02:18 AM
MCR (Macro Enterprises) + LBRDA

Out of curiosity, for LBRDA, were you waiting for the FCC to show its hand? Did you already own some and now you're adding, or is this your first buy?

Thanks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orion on February 06, 2015, 11:53:04 AM
@Liberty: The FCC didn´t affect my decision. Got my first LBRDA shares from the Spin-off, then added from time to time to this position. It´s part of my "Malone basket".
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on February 06, 2015, 11:57:15 AM
Ok, thanks. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on February 10, 2015, 01:00:27 PM
Bought EDV (Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF) / shorted AMZN, LNKD and IWM.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: InsecurityAnalysis on February 10, 2015, 07:20:23 PM
CBI and STN
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on February 12, 2015, 05:15:14 PM
Bought EDV (Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury ETF) / shorted AMZN, LNKD and IWM.


BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ATLValue on February 12, 2015, 05:54:16 PM
Sold CTCM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 12, 2015, 06:12:03 PM
I bought Tesla (below $200) for the first time.
Who knows what happens over the next 5 months, but over the next 5 years (Elon will step down probably after model 3 as CEO but he said he will be part of the company forever) this looks very lucrative, in my judgement.
I'm sure "value" investors will think I'm insane but I agree with Buffett about investors showing their ignorance about using that terminology as a "value" investor or "growth" investor.
I really liked it when Cramer said it wasn't a 'real' company.
Thanks Cramer for possibly giving me a better price.

What an idiotic statement (not a real company).

If it drops even more then I'll buy more.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: yadayada on February 12, 2015, 06:37:22 PM
Cramer hating on musk had something to do with this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ40QRTC0RA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: mcliu on February 12, 2015, 06:43:07 PM
Cramer hating on musk had something to do with this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJ40QRTC0RA

LOL "we're not bear stearns"

Can't believe shares IPOed at only 17 just 3 years ago. In hindsight, that's quite a bargain.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 12, 2015, 06:45:31 PM
I can understand Cramer saying that in 2010 but in 2015. Give me a break.
Unfortunately, Munger told Musk the same thing (I don't recall Musk mentioning the year) but Musk was pretty saddened to hear Munger tell him at lunch the number of ways Tesla would fail.
Now, of course, Munger is a fan. I love Munger but even he got Tesla wrong (and maybe BYD).
I, personally, think they should sell BYD and buy Tesla, but that certainly won't happen.

Full disclosure, I haven't followed BYD, it may well prove to be successful, but I'm not impressed based on the little knowledge I have of it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on February 12, 2015, 07:56:07 PM
I bought Tesla (below $200) for the first time.
Who knows what happens over the next 5 months, but over the next 5 years (Elon will step down probably after model 3 as CEO but he said he will be part of the company forever) this looks very lucrative, in my judgement.
I'm sure "value" investors will think I'm insane but I agree with Buffett about investors showing their ignorance about using that terminology as a "value" investor or "growth" investor.
I really liked it when Cramer said it wasn't a 'real' company.
Thanks Cramer for possibly giving me a better price.

What an idiotic statement (not a real company).

If it drops even more then I'll buy more.

Been thinking about doing the same. But wait...

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-more-evidence-that-apple-could-be-working-on-a-car-2015-2
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 12, 2015, 09:00:44 PM
I bought Tesla (below $200) for the first time.
Who knows what happens over the next 5 months, but over the next 5 years (Elon will step down probably after model 3 as CEO but he said he will be part of the company forever) this looks very lucrative, in my judgement.
I'm sure "value" investors will think I'm insane but I agree with Buffett about investors showing their ignorance about using that terminology as a "value" investor or "growth" investor.
I really liked it when Cramer said it wasn't a 'real' company.
Thanks Cramer for possibly giving me a better price.

What an idiotic statement (not a real company).

If it drops even more then I'll buy more.

Been thinking about doing the same. But wait...

http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-more-evidence-that-apple-could-be-working-on-a-car-2015-2

If it drops, I hope it happens in late March after my BAC might hit $18 :)
I'll sell some bac and buy something else.
i wanted to buy somepriceline this week but damn expedia boosted the bid offer, telsa's bid dropped today, thus I went with the latter, at least for now.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 12, 2015, 09:05:40 PM
Apple is amazing what it has accomplished but at some point it'll have several years of sideways movement.
i'm certainly not smart enough to know when, but I wouldn't bet on a lot of growth if I was forced to wager, from this price anyway.

I was thinking the same thing after Mohnish made the comments about Google recently.
The growth from here isn't clear, at least to me.

Those companies aren't my game though so take my opinion for what it's worth, which is about nothing for those companies as I didn't buy them  years ago when an intelligent investor should have.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tede02 on February 13, 2015, 07:07:25 AM
Followed Klarmen into BXE.  But let me be clear, my position is peanuts (and I've learned some lessons about following gurus before)!  But I've always wanted to understand the oil/gas industry better.  Owning something will give me further incentive to do so. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on February 13, 2015, 11:40:27 AM
PDI (PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on February 27, 2015, 08:12:08 AM
Sold my PKX stake and bought more SEC.TO. I want more exposure in businesses that i can hold for the long term and short term prospects for SEC look more promising, too. Munger, Pabrai selling PKX have influenced me and its possible that their low cost advantage is eroded by the currency wars. I feel that my insight/edge into SEC is a lot better than in PKX. SEC is now a 20% position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on February 27, 2015, 11:00:00 AM
Not all today - but recent purchases.

Buys:
EGFEY - began accumulating
SAN - finished accumulating
FRFHF - doubled position in January at $500
OGZPY/LUKOY/SBRCY - have been accumulating over the last 3 months.
IBM - following Buffett/Watsa on this one, small position
Puts on the SPY @ 190 for March 2016

Sells:
1/3 of my position in WFM
Rolling calls against 60-100% of my FCAU position
These "sells" are simply profit taking to reduce my leverage. I was at about 115% exposure previously and want to get down below 100%. I have about another 10% to go.


Watching with potential to add:
SB/SBLK/GLBS
ATUSF
PKX
FRFHF if it stays around $500-$525
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on February 27, 2015, 12:05:55 PM
Bought LCSHF (Lancashire Holdings Ltd) and shorted IWM and TXN.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on February 27, 2015, 12:38:26 PM
PRAA today and BOBE yesterday
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: notorious546 on February 27, 2015, 01:11:00 PM
Followed Klarmen into BXE.  But let me be clear, my position is peanuts (and I've learned some lessons about following gurus before)!  But I've always wanted to understand the oil/gas industry better.  Owning something will give me further incentive to do so.

this one will be tough.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on February 27, 2015, 01:46:23 PM
More bac
I think ubs analyst is obtuse. He cut price from 20 to 16 because of capital levels.
I didn't think it was worth 20 but certainly 18.
Bac will probably pass on div increase but I bet they get at least 3 billion share buyback.
Thanks ubs "analyst" for giving me the 15.70 print.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: LC on March 02, 2015, 10:55:55 AM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.

Sorry for digging this comment chain up from the grave, but 60 Minutes apparently did a piece on Lumber Liquidators confirming they have been selling flooring with levels of formaldehyde above legal limits: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/

I actually looked into the company but passed for this reason (although it was only a rumor at the time - but my carpenter neighbor confirmed LL sold the cheapest "wood" he had ever seen).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on March 02, 2015, 10:59:11 AM
Ive been in YPF for a year, its been a wild ride, but it's dirt cheap on a NAV basis.

LL

Scared me, I thought you were buying Lumber Liquidators.

I would be scared to be short. one of the smartest stock pickers in the world just bought a big position.

I saw that, and everyone's favorite whipping boy Tilson has made a very loud short case. I don't have a position, but if I had to initiate one here it'd be short. Gross margins at all time highs, bulk of the remodeling done by the Blackstone's of the world to build the world's largest rental pool, and the business still only generates $40 MM in FCF (less than 2% FCF yield). I just don't see how you get significantly much more upside in the stock.

Sorry for digging this comment chain up from the grave, but 60 Minutes apparently did a piece on Lumber Liquidators confirming they have been selling flooring with levels of formaldehyde above legal limits: http://www.cbsnews.com/news/lumber-liquidators-linked-to-health-and-safety-violations/

I actually looked into the company but passed for this reason (although it was only a rumor at the time - but my carpenter neighbor confirmed LL sold the cheapest "wood" he had ever seen).

Thanks for reminding me of trades I should've held with conviction!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tinhb on March 03, 2015, 08:07:52 PM
Just bought put options on LL. I mean if you watch the 60 minutes and search for lumber liquidators on carb website, you will find this is a screaming short. This situation is similar to fairfax during financial crisis when its portfolio including cds made money but the market seemed to be too lazy to reflect that.

From a report dated 20 Nov 2013(!) on CARB website:

"The Lumber Liquidators flooring which tested as unfinished HWPW failed the CARB emissions
standard tested at 0.17 ppm. This proposal would still have it non-compliant even at 0.11 ppm,
but did CARB enforce against Lumber Liquidators?
My members have incurred costs to be in compliance which our competitors can avoid. They
have and this proposal is an invitation produce and ship higher emitting products.
We found and submitted 4 cases of plywood claimed to be PS-2 and CARB certified which failed
the formaldehyde emission standard. To our knowledge no enforcement occurred either by
CARB or U.S. Customs. If the current regulation is not enforced, then allowing higher emissions,
no testing and no certification makes a mockery of the whole regulatory framework."

The report is attached.

I may even speculate further that CARB is corrupted and deliberately ignored warnings from whistleblowers.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on March 04, 2015, 09:10:30 AM
Sold some puts on EOG - low cost producer, access to capital market to consolidate an industry in a downturn
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: davidoosnk on March 04, 2015, 09:55:03 AM
Unable to short LL, I sold some calls on it the last three days creating a synthetic short. Trying not to get too greedy, but agree with tinhb that it is the biggest no-brainer short in a long time. Huge liability and token cash on hand so who will lend them money? I don't like shorting. Too easy to get squeezed. So I sold the calls a bit out of the money, to sleep better. I think even hedge funds who specialize in squeezing shorts may think twice about touching this one. Hope I don't get squeezed!!!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on March 09, 2015, 07:12:11 AM
SNDK SHOS YY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on March 09, 2015, 11:42:12 AM
Some BAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on March 11, 2015, 07:10:38 AM
Bought some Fastenal and a little more Gilead yesterday. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 11, 2015, 08:48:25 AM
SAN (Banco Santander)


Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on March 11, 2015, 09:04:10 AM
Added to my KW and RAVN positions this week.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AzCactus on March 11, 2015, 09:58:47 AM
BAC
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: BRK7 on March 12, 2015, 01:48:32 PM
Bought some Fastenal and a little more Gilead yesterday.


Ross, if you don't mind sharing, what prompted you to buy FAST?  I see the valuation has come down a bit in recent quarters, but I haven't followed the business for quite some time.  Do you think the shares have undeservedly been punished?  Still at ~22x fwd EPS if I'm not mistaken.

Thanks!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on March 12, 2015, 02:02:36 PM
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rukawa on March 14, 2015, 11:00:26 AM
I also established a large position in Amaya at $27 but will likely add pre-earnings report due to the strength of the US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar impacting the price more than recognition of underlying value.

This is the only case I know of where I fairly confident the stock will double within 1 year. And as a result I am establishing a huge position.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 18, 2015, 08:32:23 AM
Bought GREK and EGFEY.  Shorted CFR, FFIN, LQ, PB and TCBI.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 18, 2015, 12:42:59 PM
Bought GREK and EGFEY.  Shorted CFR, FFIN, LQ, PB and TCBI.

Thanks
Lance

I've got limit orders for EGFEY in at 0.0425. Whoever picked it up at .045 today was lucky - I'm just angry they got their order filled and not mine :/


As for the thread topic:
I sold a bunch of calls today.
For background: A few weeks back I started a P/B portfolio that will be more passive than my main one with about a quarter of my assets in it. I simply took a list of the lowest P/B stocks in the U.S. and a few ones that I can easily pick up abroad and selected the 10 that had the lowest values with the caveat that they had to have recent insider buying. This portfolio is very, very heavily energy dominated. Today, a large number of those energy names spiked double digits allowing me to sell 1 month calls with strikes at 5-10% premiums to the current price for premiums the size of 5% of the underlying notional. Seemed like a great deal so I went short a ton of 1 month calls.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on March 23, 2015, 09:15:59 AM
LCSHF and PCI (Pimco Dynamic Credit Income Fund)

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on March 23, 2015, 09:24:05 AM
Bought a little AXP.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petec on March 23, 2015, 09:25:40 AM
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA

Interesting - do you have time to open a thread on this?   
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Eye4Valu on March 23, 2015, 06:45:12 PM
CHK like Icahn.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on March 24, 2015, 12:34:28 AM
Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding ASA

Interesting - do you have time to open a thread on this?

There's one already (though not very active): http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/oslo-exchange-wwi-wwasa-wilh-wilhelmsen-companies/msg214656/#msg214656
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on March 27, 2015, 07:58:45 AM
More Amex and two small positions in FOX and DISCK
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 27, 2015, 10:51:54 AM
Yeah, what's been up with Discovery?  Think its just generalized angst about the perceived impending doom of the cable bundle as evidenced by recent announcements from HBO and AAPL?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on March 27, 2015, 11:02:34 AM
Yeah, what's been up with Discovery?  Think its just generalized angst about the perceived impending doom of the cable bundle as evidenced by recent announcements from HBO and AAPL?

Yeah, I think the impending doom of cable has spread a flue to all the content companies. I really do not see the problem though. Cable will die a slow death. Cable cos will supplement triple play with expensive internet. Content companies still produce content people want. They will have decaying legacy cable bundle revenue along with new revenue from selling ala carte packages. I envision these ala carte packages coming in two forms. I think advertising revenue will actually increase because adds can be directed more toward their audience and will be more effective.

I wish Disney was having the same issues right now too.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on March 27, 2015, 12:15:27 PM
Yeah, it is interesting.  Seems like really Netflix is sort of just a different bundle, with a much better interface and software.  As for what I've been buying...more TLM this morning.  I better hope this deal doesn't blow up.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on March 27, 2015, 12:25:18 PM
More ELDO at $1.02 recently.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jouni1 on March 29, 2015, 08:17:41 AM
i have bought some ibm last week  8)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on March 29, 2015, 09:55:07 AM
Bought Goodwin PLC and Logistec B last week.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on March 30, 2015, 05:33:18 PM
new longs - SQM BABA CBT
kept adding to WTW short
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DanielGMask on March 30, 2015, 08:06:10 PM
new longs - SQM BABA CBT
kept adding to WTW short

What's the thesis on that short?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on March 31, 2015, 07:08:19 AM
new longs - SQM BABA CBT
kept adding to WTW short

What's the thesis on that short?

there is a thread on WTW - over levered, failing/being disrupted business model/similar to yellow page, not enough time for turnaround
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DanielGMask on March 31, 2015, 11:39:46 AM
new longs - SQM BABA CBT
kept adding to WTW short

What's the thesis on that short?

there is a thread on WTW - over levered, failing/being disrupted business model/similar to yellow page, not enough time for turnaround

Yep, saw the thread and posted there, thx.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on March 31, 2015, 11:53:06 AM
Reduced FCAU by 30%
Reduced WFM by 100%

I wanted to hold both - but both were purchased on margin and I'm reducing leverage in my portfolio as I am getting more and more skittish about the U.S. equity markets. Both of these had been strong performers and warranted taking profits.

Watching AXP, SB, SBLK, and BBRY for potential increases; however, would probably need to be at more attractive prices to convince me to sell something else in favor of buying them. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on April 01, 2015, 09:05:15 AM
new position BCOR
shorting more WTW SHOS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on April 07, 2015, 11:10:29 AM
BABA   (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: intothebreach on April 07, 2015, 07:50:21 PM
Sold out of WFC. Followed Chou into Dundee Corp (DC.A).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on April 07, 2015, 08:16:37 PM
BABA   (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio)

Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment?

I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on April 08, 2015, 12:39:40 PM
BABA   (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio)

Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment?

I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :)

See AMZN thread, I have elaborated my thinking many times there.

BABA is also similar, but more growth and lower margins (as % of GMV). I think once they get their market share, they are going to take advantage of the associated network effects to increase the margins to more "normal" levels. Btw, next year BABA's GMV in china is estimated to be 80% of WMT's GMV worldwide next year.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on April 08, 2015, 12:44:07 PM
Added to my position in SXP:TSX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on April 08, 2015, 12:54:50 PM
Added to my position in SXP:TSX

Supremex?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on April 08, 2015, 03:03:47 PM
Added to my position in SXP:TSX

Supremex?

Yes
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: undervalued on April 08, 2015, 04:42:40 PM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on April 09, 2015, 12:29:06 PM
Increased ATUSF (ALS.TO), SE and BBL and reduced SLB, EXC, HAL and CAM
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on April 10, 2015, 12:16:18 PM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on April 10, 2015, 12:24:26 PM
BABA   (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio)

Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment?

I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :)

See AMZN thread, I have elaborated my thinking many times there.

BABA is also similar, but more growth and lower margins (as % of GMV). I think once they get their market share, they are going to take advantage of the associated network effects to increase the margins to more "normal" levels. Btw, next year BABA's GMV in china is estimated to be 80% of WMT's GMV worldwide next year.

How would you compare BABA with Softbank? I own softbank because I wanted to own BABA.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on April 11, 2015, 06:10:40 AM
Softbank is definitely more undervalued than Alibaba is. However, the discount to the sum-of-parts valuation at the moment persists because of Softbank's less than stellar investment in Sprint. At this point, Yahoo is a better indirect vehicle to play Alibaba through.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: WeiChiLoh on April 13, 2015, 06:58:14 AM
What is wrong with the long yahoo, short baba & yahoo japan trade? I cant seem to find a problem.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: WeiChiLoh on April 13, 2015, 06:59:41 AM
but either ways, I am long BCOR & TPUB.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orthopa on April 13, 2015, 07:16:07 AM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.

Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on April 13, 2015, 07:25:36 AM
BABA   (Yes I am a growth investor now with BABA,AMZN,FAST,VRX,BR, AAPL and CTSH making up 50% of my portfolio)

Curious how you rationalize currents prices of say, BABA or AMZN? Do you run some sort of DCF out many years, assuming the companies will grow into their valuations and still give you sufficient safety in your investment?

I'm not looking to attack, genuinely curious as to the thought process :)

See AMZN thread, I have elaborated my thinking many times there.

BABA is also similar, but more growth and lower margins (as % of GMV). I think once they get their market share, they are going to take advantage of the associated network effects to increase the margins to more "normal" levels. Btw, next year BABA's GMV in china is estimated to be 80% of WMT's GMV worldwide next year.

How would you compare BABA with Softbank? I own softbank because I wanted to own BABA.

I also owned Softbank  because of BABA. I like Softbank and it is definitely more undervalued, but as others have pointed out, the discount persists for different reasons and I made the call that at this point, I'd rather have direct exposure to BABA than indirect given where BABA price is. So replaced Softbank with BABA. Might swap again if the BABA: Softbank ratio improves and  I see Sprint turning around a bit.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: undervalued on April 13, 2015, 09:40:55 AM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.

Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices?

I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on April 13, 2015, 10:28:35 AM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.

Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices?

I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot.

I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts.

Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on April 13, 2015, 10:38:22 AM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.

Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices?

I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot.

I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts.

Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time.

Don't you think the predictability of the business deserves a higher multiple than average?
Regarding growth, their investor presentation points to a very long runway ....so I am not concerned abt the growth as such (it will happen, just a matter of when).

I recently swapped some of my long held AIG position to FAST - moving up the quality of business chain. I can sleep better with my entire net worth invested in FAST as opposed to AIG even though the multiple on AIG is paltry.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: boilermaker75 on April 13, 2015, 03:23:36 PM
2% position in FAST. I hope it keeps going down then I'll be adding more.

I wrote some April 40-strike puts on FAST today. In a week I'll either have a starter position in FAST at a basis of $39.15 or $0.85 per share profit.

Im watching fast too, do you think the multiple premium is still justified at these prices?

I can't tell for sure if they're going to keep growing like in the past but I do like that insiders are buying and the shares buyback. I am prepared to buy more if it does go down a lot.

I do not know if the high multiple is justified. I'll get more serious about looking into FAST if I get put to on Friday! In the FAST thread Phaceliacapital points out that FAST has always been priced at a high multiple. Of course that is no justification unless the growth is still there. I also noticed the insiders were buying and that helped pushed me to go ahead and write some puts.

Edit: FAST is by far the highest multiple stock I have looked at in a long time.

Don't you think the predictability of the business deserves a higher multiple than average?
Regarding growth, their investor presentation points to a very long runway ....so I am not concerned abt the growth as such (it will happen, just a matter of when).

I recently swapped some of my long held AIG position to FAST - moving up the quality of business chain. I can sleep better with my entire net worth invested in FAST as opposed to AIG even though the multiple on AIG is paltry.

That's good to hear about FAST as FAST is now below the strike price on my put options!

I don't know much about FAST, so I do not know how to judge the multiple. A predictable business that pays a 2.8% dividend with a long runway sounds like the sort of company I would like to own. If put to it would just be a small position for me, but incentive to get going with my research!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on April 18, 2015, 10:01:08 AM
I've bought a lot of stuff recently.

- MEOH
-KN
-Sold Kors shares, bought KORS LEAP Call options Jan 20,2017 (Strike 65)
- SHERF (maybe S on TSE would be better as SHERF is thinly traded)
- ZNGA LEAP CALL Options  Jan 20,2017 (Deep-ITM /Stub Trade)

Past 2 months added a few positions
-CLD (best of the breed low-sulfur PRB surface coal miner)
-MRC (PVF company)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on April 20, 2015, 10:01:16 AM
Bought YNDX today.  Last week I sold Citi and Goldman preferreds, AZSEY and KMI.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on April 20, 2015, 10:25:52 AM
Why do you like Zynga?

It seems like they're a one hit wonder and don't have a competitive advantage or a clear strategy. R&D costs are enormous, and seem very ineffective so far.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bookie71 on April 20, 2015, 10:58:29 AM
FBAK
pro's:  selling near book value, good reserves, very conservative balance sheet, bank is aggressively re-buying it's stock
con:  Alaska's oil based economy AND stupid legislature
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 20, 2015, 11:49:56 AM
Lance,  who is your broker?  haha!  Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on April 20, 2015, 01:55:08 PM
Ahhh Zynga is heavily misunderstood.

Its more a reflection on mobile gaming (fast growing industry) and their upcoming pipeline.

They have pivoted away from the old medium (facebook games) and towards the new medium which is mobile gaming. It just took some time to turn the ship around.

They have
1) Command and Conquer game called Empire and Allies coming to mobile
2) Dawn of Titans  (go look up the in-game trailers. Graphic is amazing!)
3) Book Value is right around $2 (Probably closer to $2.50 if you count that real estate in SF has skyrocketed).
4) Amortization of software/ depreciation accounting rules and goodwill write-downs will hide some of it true earnings
5) R&D for Games is big up-front investment. This likely accounts for their continued burn.

I structured it as a $1 strike as a Zynga stub trade (BV around $2). Assuming revenues stabilize, cash-burn slows, and one of the game gets in the top 5 (which is highly likely) you are looking at a share price of between $6-8.

I think Mark Pincus is a glory-hog and couldn't help come back when Zynga coming back. Its a definite good time to hop in before the games get out of beta and public sentiment changes against Zynga.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on April 20, 2015, 02:04:38 PM
Just bought a small chunk of PGR- Progressive- shares

-PE of 12.5
- Excellent underwritten insurance company (consistent combined ratio of around 92-96)
- Coast to coast P/C and auto coverage
- Conservative investor that returns excess cash (this year was 2.5% dividend and ~2% of float stock buyback).
- Payout ratio on dividend is at 25% <---- Def room to grow
- Great marketing division (Flo!)




Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on April 20, 2015, 02:56:06 PM
TSX - ACQ AutoCanada
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on April 20, 2015, 09:26:52 PM
Lance,  who is your broker?  haha!  Just kidding, I appreciate your willingness to share your ideas/moves.

Hi CorpRaider - lol, yeah, my shorts have been painful.

Thanks,
Lance

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on April 21, 2015, 06:56:24 AM
Lance,

As a holder of KMI I am curious why you sold? My feeling is Rich Kinder will use the current turmoil to add assets at attractive prices but I am always looking for the flaw in my reasoning. If you don't mind sharing why you sold?

thanks
Zorro
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on April 21, 2015, 07:44:51 AM
Hi Zorrofan - I sold KMI to raise cash for purchasing during the downturn that I've been expecting but never seems to arrive.  I still like KMI and will likely buy it back in the event it move below my sell price. 

Thanks,
Lance 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on April 21, 2015, 09:09:28 AM
Hi Zorrofan - I sold KMI to raise cash for purchasing during the downturn that I've been expecting but never seems to arrive.  I still like KMI and will likely buy it back in the event it move below my sell price. 

Thanks,
Lance

Lance,

thanks for your reply - if it is any consolation I've been raising cash too but I am starting to wonder if the FED will ever let the market correct....

cheers
Zorro


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 21, 2015, 09:43:20 AM
Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AtlCDore on April 23, 2015, 06:10:59 AM
Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL.

frommi,

Just curious why sold out of SEC.TO? 

Regarding QVAL, do you have a % of your assets in quantitative value funds?  Have you looked at other funds?

Thanks,

AtlCDore
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 23, 2015, 06:19:36 AM
I am buying FFH today, and I'll be buying BH in two weeks (if its price stays this low or is lower).

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kirkomi on April 23, 2015, 06:30:15 AM
Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL.

You are jumping around quite a bit frommi. PKX -> SEC.TO -> QVAL.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: 50centdollars on April 23, 2015, 06:30:48 AM
Buying IRG:TSE
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 23, 2015, 06:33:03 AM
Sold out of SEC.TO and bought QVAL.

frommi,

Just curious why sold out of SEC.TO? 

Regarding QVAL, do you have a % of your assets in quantitative value funds?  Have you looked at other funds?

Thanks,

AtlCDore

Because after the discussion and looking at historically P/B ratios for SEC.TO i see a P/B of ~0.6 as fair value of SEC.TO and because it is now close to that number and the stock is so illiquid i wanted to get out on the way up. QVAL is only a small part of my portfolio at the moment, but i can imagine buying more of it because i can compound tax efficient and with a small TER there with a tested value strategy that is proven to beat the market. But in the first place i bought it because i had no other good idea at the moment. But that can change daily.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 23, 2015, 06:35:20 AM
You are jumping around quite a bit frommi. PKX -> SEC.TO -> QVAL.

Yes sorry i have a skittish mind.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on April 23, 2015, 09:24:35 AM
Similar to Frommi, I sold SEC today.
The rational was that when I first bough SEC last month, the USD.CAD rate was above 1.27. Now it is only 1.21, so the NAV per share in CAD should have dropped from 300 to 280.
Then the share price rised from 169 to 180 CAD. Therefore the discount has narrowed quite a bit. :)
I have some other investments that I've been watching for. Maybe I will start buying some soon. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on April 23, 2015, 09:43:49 AM
I estimate that their portfolio is also up ~5% since you bought, the discount hasn't narrowed that much. 3% or something probably.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on April 23, 2015, 10:28:51 AM
Just bought Chubb.

- Quality insurance company that carved out high-end niche.
- Combined ratio of 88-92 most years
- Conservative book (mostly short/medium term bonds). Hedge against interest rates rising as earnings will rise w/interest rates going up.
- 2.28% dividend + 5% share buyback
- P/E of 11.5





Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on April 23, 2015, 11:07:35 AM
I estimate that their portfolio is also up ~5% since you bought, the discount hasn't narrowed that much. 3% or something probably.

That's possible. I didn't closely track their positions. I realized it is likely a PFIC after I bought, so I don't want to hold this for long term anyway.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on April 23, 2015, 12:00:42 PM

bought ATH:EUPIC a week or two ago
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bookie71 on April 23, 2015, 12:31:19 PM
FBAK just came out with first Q report
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/first-national-bank-alaska-announces-191800856.html
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on April 23, 2015, 02:39:37 PM
I estimate that their portfolio is also up ~5% since you bought, the discount hasn't narrowed that much. 3% or something probably.

That's possible. I didn't closely track their positions. I realized it is likely a PFIC after I bought, so I don't want to hold this for long term anyway.

Is there a reason all this PFIC talk just blew up in the last few months? I'd never heard of this old, arcane tax rule and all of the sudden it seems like everyone and their mother is concerned about investments being PFICs, how to strategically do their taxes for PFICs, if PFICs can be held in IRAs, and if they're allowed in ERISA accounts, etc. etc. etc. I don't mean to derail the thread, but from what I could this isn't a new rule and I'm just trying to understand all of the recent interest that wasn't relevant a year ago?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: globalfinancepartners on April 23, 2015, 03:33:18 PM
This quote from a site below kind of sums up why US investors are just recently worrying about it.  There were changes in the last few years that alerted folks to the issue --

"The FATCA legislation not only requires new self-reporting on PFICs and other foreign held financial assets, but also requires all “foreign financial institutions” to report on the assets held by U.S. citizens and U.S. permanent residents directly to the IRS by 2014.  While it may seem hard to believe that foreign financial institutions would willingly comply with such reporting requirements, the fact is that industry observers expect nearly universal compliance with the new rules by banks, brokerages, insurance companies, mutual funds (anything “financial”) around the world, because of the severe sanctions the FATCA law imposed on non-compliant financial institutions.  The point is that all U.S. citizens must assume that as of 2014, the IRS will have a direct and easily accessible window onto their holdings in foreign financial institutions. It will be easy to cross-reference direct reports by these institutions to the IRS with self-filed form 8938 and 8621 and determine whether or not your PFIC investments have been properly reported and the tax properly calculated and paid."

http://thunfinancial.com/why-americans-should-never-ever-own-shares-in-a-non-us-incorporated-mutual-fund/
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueinvesting101 on April 23, 2015, 03:59:05 PM
GM/WS/B
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 23, 2015, 11:29:10 PM
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 24, 2015, 01:44:12 AM
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?

I think it is attractively priced… As a very long term investment and if a more difficult environment awaits us.

In case something goes wrong with this global deleveraging, and we actually get to see deflation or a stock market that goes down and stays down for some time (or both), FFH imo might truly succeed in compounding at 15% annual.

If FFH compounds at 15% annual, there is no reason why 10 years from now it won’t trade at the same multiple it is trading today. This of course would mean a 15% CAGR for my investment.

Of course it won’t happen if central banks succeed in resolving our debt situation without any harmful consequences, and if the stock market keeps marching upward undisturbed.

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: simplefocus on April 24, 2015, 04:40:23 AM
NRCIB

It should be trading at 6x of A shares (NRCIA).. huge mispricing.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: rpadebet on April 24, 2015, 05:50:22 AM
NRCIB

It should be trading at 6x of A shares (NRCIA).. huge misprice.

Its been like this for a while now and for good reason...
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/nrcibnrcia-interesting-2-class-structure/msg216349/#msg216349 (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/nrcibnrcia-interesting-2-class-structure/msg216349/#msg216349)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 24, 2015, 07:19:51 AM
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sleepydragon on April 24, 2015, 07:48:10 AM
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 24, 2015, 10:47:11 AM
Sold Intralot and AIQ and started my summer hedging program. Bought Gold, TLT, IWM Puts and shorted XBI. Still hold FFH, OUTR and NWH.AX.
I just can`t get rid of the bear inside of me, i have that nagging feeling that the bull market ends this summer with at least a 20% correction. Its about time.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: netnet on April 24, 2015, 10:54:56 AM
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?

I think it is attractively priced… As a very long term investment and if a more difficult environment awaits us.

In case something goes wrong with this global deleveraging, and we actually get to see deflation or a stock market that goes down and stays down for some time (or both), FFH imo might truly succeed in compounding at 15% annual.

If FFH compounds at 15% annual, there is no reason why 10 years from now it won’t trade at the same multiple it is trading today. This of course would mean a 15% CAGR for my investment.

Of course it won’t happen if central banks succeed in resolving our debt situation without any harmful consequences, and if the stock market keeps marching upward undisturbed.

Gio

You like it at current price/ book?.  If that is so, I will wait for the reputed " post Gio buying, drop in price" to buy some 8)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on April 24, 2015, 11:02:19 AM
Sold Intralot and AIQ and started my summer hedging program. Bought Gold, TLT, IWM Puts and shorted XBI. Still hold FFH, OUTR and NWH.AX.
I just can`t get rid of the bear inside of me, i have that nagging feeling that the bull market ends this summer with at least a 20% correction. Its about time.

Damn, you really have a skittish mind!  ;) Selling dimes on the dollar imo for a market correction that might happen and could impact the stock price of your stocks.

Bought some EUROB last week sub $0.10 and more NTLS below $4.5 a few weeks ago. Corrections be damned! They are the reason I buy anything in the first place.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 24, 2015, 11:06:34 AM
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.

HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009.

As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 24, 2015, 11:43:54 AM
Damn, you really have a skittish mind!  ;) Selling dimes on the dollar imo for a market correction that might happen and could impact the stock price of your stocks.

Bought some EUROB last week sub $0.10 and more NTLS below $4.5 a few weeks ago. Corrections be damned! They are the reason I buy anything in the first place.

Perhaps i do it wrong, but thats the way i can sleep at night. I will probably never post a year with a return of >50%, but i am pretty sure that i will never post a year with a 30-50% loss either.
With Intralot i fear the GR-Exit and the loss of the high margin contracts in Romania?/Greece they mentioned in the last call. Made me think about what i really understand of that business.
AIQ may be worth holding, but i didn`t want to lose my profits and i was not sure if i am mentally able to hold it when they tank below 19$ and they are not able to grow EBITDA. (or even worse) And i really hate how the stock price has moved, there is a big barrier around 25/26$ now.

The next stocks i buy will be better businesses with growth, a moat and where i truly understand the business, that gives me a lot more confidence to hold for longer.  (And especially over the summer).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on April 24, 2015, 12:03:52 PM
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.

HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009.

As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now...

This. I've been watching HOG too. I've been reducing leverage in my portfolio for the last 4 months or so and I'm not quite to my goal yet, but if the price of this and American Express keep falling I'll have to re-evaluate my current holdings.

Maybe I can finally redeem myself for not buying it in 2009 when I was looking at it around $13.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Jurgis on April 24, 2015, 02:01:28 PM
Yeah, I held HOG around 2008-2009, sold close to lows.

For a small justification, they did change CEO and the new CEO presumably cleaned up the company quite a bit.

Of course now Barron's does a spread on the new CEO and they almost immediately hit a tough patch again. :)

Currently no plans to buy. I think I'll just say that it's not in my circle of competence. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 24, 2015, 03:11:43 PM
Added to Altius and Amex.

Bought a new position: HOG

Why HOG? It seems a dying business. Younger people dont buy HOG and current fans are retiring.

HOG sells ~40% of their bikes overseas and the strong dollar is hurting their foreign business right now. International growth is still intact and their domestic growth, though slow, is positive. This has been the case since 2005. Q1 '15 was weak and the stock sold off. The market is taking Q1 as the start of the real decline of the brand and is pricing it at a PE and P/FCF lower than any period over the last ten years aside from 2009.

As for the future of the brand: I'm not sure HOG doesn't have young fans. Their bikes are expensive and young people cannot afford to buy them. The 20 and 30 somethings zipping around on crotch rockets are going to trade them in one day for something comfortable. The 20-30 somethings that give up their bikes will still have a midlife crisis in their 50's and go out and buy a bike. I really cannot think of a brand with a stronger following. I wonder how many hippies in the 60 and 70's were buying hogs? A bunch of those hippies own Harleys now...

I was going to say: To me their fans retiring is good.  That's when it is most worth it to go drop $30K on a bike to cruise your CPA ass around.  I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash.  I too missed HOG during the recession due to fear (although I bought DFS, WFM, DNKN and UA pretty much at the bottom, but I sold them all WAAAAAAAAAY too early.  Lesson learned, hopefully.  I just started looking at it though and haven't bought any yet. 

Didn't they have some labor problems that got them into trouble in the great recession?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 24, 2015, 06:34:34 PM
I am buying FFH today...

Reflect your belief that is attractively priced? Or are dollar-cost averaging?

I think it is attractively priced… As a very long term investment and if a more difficult environment awaits us.

In case something goes wrong with this global deleveraging, and we actually get to see deflation or a stock market that goes down and stays down for some time (or both), FFH imo might truly succeed in compounding at 15% annual.

If FFH compounds at 15% annual, there is no reason why 10 years from now it won’t trade at the same multiple it is trading today. This of course would mean a 15% CAGR for my investment.

Of course it won’t happen if central banks succeed in resolving our debt situation without any harmful consequences, and if the stock market keeps marching upward undisturbed.

Gio

Thanks, Gio.

I may be anchored on my failure to buy at $500 in Jan (went away for a long weekend thinking I'd a limit order in, returned to find I didn't), but it doesn't seem so attractive today.

I'm open to the argument that any reasonable price is attractive enough for the unique protection FRFHF provides.

But while I expect central banks to fail, I do also expect Fairfax will drop initially with the market before the realization it is what Fairfax is positioned for.

I'll likely wait like netnet and hope for your buy to drop the price.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 24, 2015, 06:50:05 PM
I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash.

No.

Only the many (not everyone) on Japanese cruising bikes might rather a Hog if they'd cash, but not Ducatis or BMWs.

(Ducatis are for many on Japanese sport bikes and BMWs for many on Japanese touring bikes, if they'd the cash.)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kfh227 on April 25, 2015, 07:19:42 AM
Since FFH was mentioned, I'd like to make a statement.

I am 38 right now.  25 years till retirement.  My wife and I have a Roth-IRA (and other retirement accounts through our employers).  In our Roth-IRAs I decided to start buying companies like Berkshire, FFH, etc and stop trying to do better than the likes of Prem Watsa (in retirement accounts ;)).

So, 2-3 months ago my wife's account had a bunch of FFH placed in it.  I dollar cost averaged into mine.  And next year, I am thinking that FFH will be placed into both.

25 years from now, I don't see why FFH would not be a $100B+ company.  That's modest though.  It's $15B today.  I figure it should be in the $200B+ area by then.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: merkhet on April 25, 2015, 07:22:07 AM
Since FFH was mentioned, I'd like to make a statement.

I am 38 right now.  25 years till retirement.  My wife and I have a Roth-IRA (and other retirement accounts through our employers).  In our Roth-IRAs I decided to start buying companies like Berkshire, FFH, etc and stop trying to do better than the likes of Prem Watsa.

So, 2-3 months ago my wife's account had a bunch of FFH placed in it.  I dollar cost averaged into mine.  And next year, I am thinking that FFH will be placed into both.

25 years from now, I don't see why FFH would not be a $100B+ company.  That's modest though.  It's $15B today.  I figure it should be in the $200B+ area by then.

That seems reasonable. $225B in 25 years implies a CAGR of around 11.5%.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kfh227 on April 25, 2015, 07:25:52 AM
That seems reasonable. $225B in 25 years implies a CAGR of around 11.5%.

I think I calced that at a 15% CAGR, it would be around $500B.

I added an image to my post showing what compounding at 11% will do in 25 years (ignoring inflation).  I guess that would be something like 14% compounded including inflation.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 25, 2015, 10:13:29 AM
I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash.

No.

Only the many (not everyone) on Japanese cruising bikes might rather a Hog if they'd cash, but not Ducatis or BMWs.

(Ducatis are for many on Japanese sport bikes and BMWs for many on Japanese touring bikes, if they'd the cash.)

Yes.  The crotch rocket gets old after you turn thirty.  I had a Ducati , pretty much solely because I could get it for $12 grand versus $16 - 20 for a similar used hog at the time and it wasn't as embarrassing as a rice burner.  I also had a 600cc honda CBR when i was a baby.  Got married an now I drive an SUV....

None of the others are aspirational bikes, at least in the states.  Finally, no posers in America who have never owned a bike, go and buy Ducati gear to wear just for the brand associations. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 25, 2015, 03:02:23 PM
I also agree that pretty much everyone on a rice burner or a ducati or BMW would rather have a hog if they had the cash.

No.

Only the many (not everyone) on Japanese cruising bikes might rather a Hog if they'd cash, but not Ducatis or BMWs.

(Ducatis are for many on Japanese sport bikes and BMWs for many on Japanese touring bikes, if they'd the cash.)

Yes.  The crotch rocket gets old after you turn thirty.  I had a Ducati , pretty much solely because I could get it for $12 grand versus $16 - 20 for a similar used hog at the time and it wasn't as embarrassing as a rice burner.  I also had a 600cc honda CBR when i was a baby.  Got married an now I drive an SUV....

None of the others are aspirational bikes, at least in the states.  Finally, no posers in America who have never owned a bike, go and buy Ducati gear to wear just for the brand associations.

Really?

Because I'm 51, been riding for over 40 years, commute daily, tour twice yearly, and take a (track) class about every other year on Japanese sport bikes, plan to go European when I'm back in the US full-time, and I'd quit tomorrow if I had to ride a Hog.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 25, 2015, 03:46:21 PM
I'm going to have to decline the (perceived) invitation to an internet pissing match.  In any case, I must respect my elder, since you whipped out the learned ancient biker card. haha. 

I suppose if you really think you're a good touchstone for the mass affluent motorcycle consumer in the U.S. (and all the markets around the world that will follow that lead), then you won't buy any HOG.  I don't own any yet, but I do not think one could replicate the brand very easily and I don't think there's anything even close as a peer in the space.  It reminds me a lot of DE with perhaps weaker asian competition.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 25, 2015, 11:14:14 PM
"Rice burner" and "crotch rocket" betray your sensibilities, you whippersnapper.

And I recognize I'm in the minority, just correcting your market size estimate.

HOG might be a buy, dunno.

I only have the sense that their Project Rushmore has been pretty well received?

But that may be only in the motorcycle press, who rate things that Harley owners do not (reference their like of V-Rod versus its rejection by the Harley faithful).

And I could see Indian becoming a peer (but again, I'm not the target audience).

What do you think of their bikes?

Maybe Polaris is the better buy.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/02/11/resurgent-indian-motorcycles-could-hurt-domestic-sales-of-harley-davidson/

http://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/news/2014/01/31/in-motorcycle-contest-is-indian.html?page=all
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 26, 2015, 04:34:49 PM
Yeah, I think you've got a good point.  I was going to say, in honesty, there are a lot more feasible affordable domestic options now than back when I went with the Ducati.  A purely unionized workforce is a no on the decision tree for me no matter what else.  A company like Boeing where they have some hand with the union given the southern plants is ok, but they've got HOG by the short and curlys.  So I guess it is an automatic pass for me.  Polaris really might be a better option, they have Victory as well.  Thanks for the discussion.  All the rice burner and whatnot was supposed to be "tongue in cheek", (I guess that doesn't come through on the internet) I've had two honda dirt bikes and I loved them so much I would ride until I got injured every time out (much better and more likely to start than the Husky's and Cagiva's my pops and brother had).  My uncle tours all over the darn country and up to Canada on his BMW.  He's a tough old bird.  WAY more than I could handle. haha.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: james22 on April 27, 2015, 12:45:42 AM
It'll be interesting to see if the Harley-Indian rivalry splits or expands the market.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 27, 2015, 01:01:33 AM
But while I expect central banks to fail, I do also expect Fairfax will drop initially with the market before the realization it is what Fairfax is positioned for.

I am not so sure about it…

If FFH only had lots of cash to use in a market correction, I would agree with you. But FFH also has equity hedges that probably will make more money than the money it would lose on its equity investments, FFH also has a bond portfolio that will probably make even more money in a difficult environment, and FFH also has CPI-linked derivative contracts that could turn-out to be great winners in a deflationary environment.

Therefore, FFH will actually make more money in a difficult environment than in a muddle through environment. I think the market knows this, but it is simply expecting the muddle through scenario to be much more likely than the deflationary one.

If and when conditions change, who knows what might happen to FFH’s stock price?

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 27, 2015, 07:39:56 AM
Shorted more XBI, VRX and TIME.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on April 27, 2015, 09:18:43 AM
Therefore, FFH will actually make more money in a difficult environment than in a muddle through environment. I think the market knows this, but it is simply expecting the muddle through scenario to be much more likely than the deflationary one.

Also true at the end of 2007...

As the book value was growing, the price of the stock dropped from around $287 at the end of 2007 to around $218 by late summer 2008 (in the days before the short-selling ban).

Like Fairfax, there were blue chip companies that never saw an earnings decline (like Coca Cola) and they too had contractions in their market multiples.

My guess is that in the next panic the market multiples will once again slip, even for the strongest companies.  Including Fairfax.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: writser on April 27, 2015, 09:28:43 AM
Agreed. I also think it is, well, let's call it "optimistic" to predict the market will price certain stocks rationally during the next crisis. In fact, to predict anything at all about the next crisis.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on April 27, 2015, 09:52:27 AM
By the end of 2009 Fairfax's stock was priced at $410 with a book value of $369.80.

It was 1.1x book value.

Five years later at the end of 2014, book value had grown by a cumulative 6.7% to $395.

A compound annual growth rate of less than 1.5%.

The share price has grown 49% over the same period.

6.7% cumulative increase in book value per share, and rewarded with a share price increase of 49%.

Just saying...  today's multiple is not a crisis multiple.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on April 27, 2015, 12:01:05 PM
Started a small short on IBB, noticed a few massive stock price drops due to drug approval failures recently, maybe over time, those failures will remind biotech investors that those stocks have large risks and are not one way bets
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on April 27, 2015, 02:31:19 PM
BAC-WTA.  Each time I die a little inside.   :o
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 27, 2015, 02:37:30 PM
Just saying...  today's multiple is not a crisis multiple.

I agree Eric.

The fact still remains: in today' market there is no place to hide...  you might either choose to hold cash, or you might choose to buy a business which itself is holding lots of cash and is positioned to perform very well in a difficult environment.

There are no bargains out there (at least that I know of!).

But, if you know a business which is better positioned and more atteactively priced than FFH, I am always interested to know what you think!

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on April 27, 2015, 02:48:52 PM
But, if you know a business which is better positioned and more attractively priced than FFH, I am always interested to know what you think!

Being more specific, you clearly seem to want a business which is not just "well positioned" but countercyclical. That requirement narrows the investment universe by 99.9%.

GLRE and TPRE are the only two I know of that are cheaper and have significant equity hedges. Of course you are already aware of them.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: constructive on April 27, 2015, 02:57:49 PM
If you want your portfolio to be countercyclical, I think the more effective option is to buy well positioned companies and hold the short positions yourself. Otherwise you will need to do things like hold FFH and OAK even when they aren't very cheap, since no other companies can fill their place in the portfolio.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ERICOPOLY on April 27, 2015, 03:06:29 PM
Just saying...  today's multiple is not a crisis multiple.

I agree Eric.

The fact still remains: in today' market there is no place to hide...  you might either choose to hold cash, or you might choose to buy a business which itself is holding lots of cash and is positioned to perform very well in a difficult environment.

There are no bargains out there (at least that I know of!).

But, if you know a business which is better positioned and more atteactively priced than FFH, I am always interested to know what you think!

Cheers,

Gio

Well, I would just add that there are alternative techniques rather than just choosing companies.

I think 2x BAC is more likely to earn 20% than FFH in a muddle-through.  Counting the dividends, BAC would generate more than 20% return if trading over $17 in mid-January. 

It's an annualized return in excess of 30%.

But I think FFH will drop 20% from here if there is another crisis that's coming to a head in January, a loss of roughly 27% annualized.

The BAC $17 strike call (Jan 2016) can be written for 55 cents and the proceeds will purchase the $14 strike put for $55 cents.

So maximum leveraged loss is 20% (assuming no dividends to lessen the blow) -- about the same as what I expect for FFH, although that's the maximum that is possible with BAC.

But anyways... there are decent muddle-through returns to be had without risking your entire shirt.

FFH likely doesn't have the same muddle-through returns as 20% by next January, because I think most of the multiple expansion has already happened.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 27, 2015, 11:29:47 PM
FFH likely doesn't have the same muddle-through returns as 20% by next January, because I think most of the multiple expansion has already happened.

I agree. Period.

But I would also add that, when I buy a business, what happens from April until January of the next year is only part of the picture. And multiple expansion is only the frost on the cake.

GLRE and TPRE are the only two I know of that are cheaper and have significant equity hedges. Of course you are already aware of them.

No, I don’t think either GLRE or TPRE are as well positioned as FFH. I don’t think OAK is as well positioned as FFH. I don’t think KO nor other blue chips are as well positioned as FFH.
If we really end-up having deflation, it is true GLRE, TPRE, OAK, and KO will still make some money, but will most probably surprise on the downside.
FFH’s business results, instead, might very well surprise on the upside.

This is very important imo, not because FFH’s stock price will perform better than the rest… If I am invested in FFH today, it is precisely because I am agnostic about stock price movements… I simply don’t know how stock prices will move. Instead, it is important because FFH in that situation might come to possess the wherewithal to buy lots of greatly productive assets at bargain prices. Much more than GLRE, TPRE, OAK, and KO will be able to do.

Carnegie, Rockefeller, Mellon, etc. all have become fabulously rich that way. No one knows if that will happen again. But, even if there were only very slight chances, I want to participate.

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: meiroy on April 28, 2015, 12:50:37 AM

When the market really crashes reflexivity becomes far more dominant with any problems in the capital structure becoming much more obvious. I would not expect FFH or any such large company to have strong enough buyer of last resort with the interest to keep it significantly over the general market.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 28, 2015, 12:59:08 AM
When the market really crashes reflexivity becomes far more dominant with any problems in the capital structure becoming much more obvious. I would not expect FFH or any such large company to have strong enough buyer of last resort with the interest to keep it significantly over the general market.

You are talking about the FFH stock price. I don’t talk about what a stock price will do in the future.

Instead, I am talking about the billions from its bonds portfolio, its equity hedges, and its CPI-linked derivative contracts.

And about the assets FFH might be able to buy with those billions.

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 29, 2015, 08:54:53 AM
I bought a decently sized position in Open Text today.  They do digital document management and are expanding out from there.  It is a well run, fast growing company (15%+) going for about 15-16x fcf.   ROE is about 25%.   It has been mentioned by Donville Kent and Turtle Creek, both of whom have outstanding long-term records.   Stock sold off on a weak quarter and currency effects.  Should be a good long-term hold.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KCLarkin on April 29, 2015, 09:27:36 AM
I bought a decently sized position in Open Text today.

I was trying to buy this morning but it bounced before I could get in. Seems to frequently have a sharp gap down and then a sharp rebound. Still down ~6% so I hope to accumulate.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on April 29, 2015, 10:04:02 AM
Even where it is trading right this minute, $52.08, I think it is an incredible bargain.    Based on the most recent quarter, free cash flow is annualized around $450M.   So the company is trading in the vicinity of 15x fcf.    It really should trade for at least 20x, given if nothing else that it has strong recurring revenue.  When you factor in management's ability to acquire and control costs, it should probably trade at more of a growth multiple, likely 25-30x.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: giofranchi on April 30, 2015, 12:31:07 AM
I have just bought more PSH.

Cheers,

Gio
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bargainhunter on April 30, 2015, 06:53:53 AM
Just significantly increased my position in SNMX. As per today's earnings release Pepsi commercialization is on track for mid 2015. Just as important, direct sales are ramping up. Look at the trend in sales wins over the past several quarters. 0, 1, 3, 6. We are on the cusp of a major ramping up in revenues here.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: muscleman on April 30, 2015, 07:18:55 AM
I converted USD into EUR, wired to Fidelity and bought a meaningful stake in Bank of Cyprus.  :D
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 30, 2015, 09:54:34 AM
Bought CHEF and QQQ puts.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 30, 2015, 10:32:41 AM
Bought CHEF and QQQ puts.

I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: frommi on April 30, 2015, 10:50:22 AM
Bought CHEF and QQQ puts.

I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist...

I once had a limit order in for FIAT. Guess what happened. :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: buylowersellhigh on April 30, 2015, 10:51:03 AM
Ross,

What is your thesis on CHEF?

TIA

Bought CHEF and QQQ puts.

I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist...
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on April 30, 2015, 11:27:41 AM
Ross,

What is your thesis on CHEF?

TIA

Bought CHEF and QQQ puts.

I have a gtc buy order in for 17.5 on CHEF. Rinse and repeat on this one. The $23 month out options were going for $1.3 in March. I couldn't resist...

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/chef-the-chefs'-warehouse/

There is quite a bit in there. I'm pretty comfortable with food distribution and I think CHEF is in an great niche market. I'm not as excited with their center of plate purchases (i.e. beef - too cyclical), but we are definitely on an upswing of cycle right now. They should make money on the next down swing.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 01, 2015, 09:27:16 AM
Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on May 01, 2015, 10:27:45 AM
Bought a few more things

-Houston Wire and Cable (HWCC) : Distribution company of wire and cable. Good track record so far. Energy crisis has sent all these distribution companies down. 1/3 of its clientele is energy related, but realistically only upstream is going to be affected. Midstream and downstream are probably passing on lower energy costs to consumer and demand is staying relatively the same (or higher)

-Amdocs (DOX) - Customer Experience Software. Stable company, high cash flows, zero debt. Handles accounting and billing for most major telcos worldwide. Niche segment w/low margin but high volume <--- Entry to barrier. Highly technical company (minus) but excellent capital allocators and growing slowly into new spaces
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Travis Wiedower on May 01, 2015, 11:34:27 AM
OUTR and LGIH
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: notorious546 on May 01, 2015, 06:00:47 PM
OPY
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: AtlCDore on May 02, 2015, 03:10:02 AM
Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short.

Thanks,
Lance

Lance,

Did that just get listed?  Why didn't you buy FIH (in Canada)?

Thanks,

AtlCDore
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Jurgis on May 02, 2015, 07:11:58 AM
Bought FFXDF (Fairfax India Hldgs Corp), closed my LNKD short.

Thanks,
Lance

Lance,

Did that just get listed?  Why didn't you buy FIH (in Canada)?

Thanks,

AtlCDore

One reason to buy FFXDF is if your broker does not allow international stocks. Or if your broker does not allow international stocks in IRA and you want the position in IRA.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TorontoRaptorsFan on May 04, 2015, 11:53:32 AM
CTRL - Control 4
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DavidVY on May 04, 2015, 01:38:44 PM
Bought Genworth today (GNW)

-Selling at 35% book value
- PMI insurance has stabilized
- Life insurance is in the mix too.

I think fair value is in the 60-75% BV range
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 04, 2015, 05:04:47 PM
CTRL - Control 4

what's your thesis on it? i owned it before, sold it at a loss.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TorontoRaptorsFan on May 05, 2015, 11:28:35 AM
Home Automation is a growing sector
Seems undervalued considering the interest PE firms have in the sector (ie-KKR investment in Savant & Sonos)
Growing dealer base to sell the product
Apps that work on both Android and Apple platforms
Been in business now for over 12 years
Could migrate platform to a cloud based model that would help with recurring monthly revenue from users (ie-similar to security contracts but to monitor every aspect of home - pool, spa, lights, audio-video, security, HVAC, cameras)

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on May 05, 2015, 11:56:24 AM
AIQ. Market keeps ignoring this one. Superlow daily volume driving the stock lower again.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: bargainhunter on May 06, 2015, 09:12:33 AM
NVGS and SNMX.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: notorious546 on May 06, 2015, 12:09:10 PM
AIQ. Market keeps ignoring this one. Superlow daily volume driving the stock lower again.

what is your thesis on this company? doesn't look like it has been to profitable and debt load looks a bit above average (but has been coming down). 3-4x ev/ebitda on my very rough numbers
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 07, 2015, 08:44:05 AM
LCSHF and January 2017 Sandridge $2.50 calls.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Philip Morris IV on May 07, 2015, 10:47:15 AM
what is your thesis on this company? doesn't look like it has been to profitable and debt load looks a bit above average (but has been coming down). 3-4x ev/ebitda on my very rough numbers

There's an AIQ thread in the ideas forum that is quite thorough and provides a very clear thesis.  The GAAP earnings figure is rather fictitious with this one.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aiq-alliance-healthcare/ (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aiq-alliance-healthcare/)

I am with tombgrt and have been buying more here.  If it weren't for the illiquidity this would be in my top 3 holdings (am concentrated).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 07, 2015, 11:44:29 AM
IBM TWTR and more BABA
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on May 11, 2015, 01:12:40 PM
I bought more NOV, the second stock after Altius in my portfolio.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on May 11, 2015, 01:46:55 PM
I bought some SNI. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 11, 2015, 07:11:07 PM
KLXI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 12, 2015, 07:05:15 AM
MU AXLL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kfh227 on May 12, 2015, 07:43:43 AM
LCSHF and January 2017 Sandridge $2.50 calls.

Thanks,
Lance

I'd do them but I hate market to market accounting crap.  I do have some call options on oil stocks but they expire between June and EOY.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on May 12, 2015, 08:13:13 AM
Joyou AG.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 13, 2015, 08:15:42 AM
Over the last few days I bought AMIGY (Admiral Group plc) and IAU (iShares Gold Trust) and sold covered calls on BP and MBT (Mobile Telesystems OJSC). 

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 14, 2015, 12:27:49 PM
CP CFX
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on May 18, 2015, 10:52:57 AM
MSC Industrial Direct
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 18, 2015, 12:23:50 PM
Bought SD (Sandridge Energy) Jan 2017 $2.50 calls and shorted NFLX.

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: notorious546 on May 18, 2015, 12:25:31 PM
PCP
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orion on May 18, 2015, 12:56:37 PM
AYSI
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on May 18, 2015, 01:14:47 PM
GDXJ CP
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petey2720 on May 20, 2015, 11:58:59 AM
rvp

pfie
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jschembs on May 20, 2015, 12:16:50 PM
rvp

pfie

any reason on RVP, other than taking advantage of someone seeking liquidity?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: petey2720 on May 20, 2015, 01:42:31 PM
just an opportunity to get a few shares under $4.00
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jm25 on May 20, 2015, 01:55:58 PM
RX - Biosyent
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on May 21, 2015, 07:04:26 AM
what is your thesis on this company? doesn't look like it has been to profitable and debt load looks a bit above average (but has been coming down). 3-4x ev/ebitda on my very rough numbers

There's an AIQ thread in the ideas forum that is quite thorough and provides a very clear thesis.  The GAAP earnings figure is rather fictitious with this one.
http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aiq-alliance-healthcare/ (http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/investment-ideas/aiq-alliance-healthcare/)

I am with tombgrt and have been buying more here.  If it weren't for the illiquidity this would be in my top 3 holdings (am concentrated).

Jup. Sorry I missed the earlier comment. I picked up some more at $20.5. Now 20%+ of portfolio, illiquidity be damned. Not really sure what else to buy tbh! ;)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 21, 2015, 10:58:00 AM
SDRXN (Sandridge Energy Inc Conv PFD 7% Perptl)


Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Ross812 on May 21, 2015, 01:00:56 PM
Bought BH.

Sold all of my BAC '16 Leaps.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on May 22, 2015, 08:55:40 AM
Bought IAU and shorted BID (Sotheby's).

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: benchmark on May 23, 2015, 12:22:50 PM
Bought BH.

Sold all of my BAC '16 Leaps.

Why selling the leaps now? BAC will likely go up more in the next few month -- of course, the time value will decay as well
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on May 26, 2015, 12:25:20 PM
Increased allocation to PKX today by 35% in my IRA. Looking to add more.

Not really a long-term view on the position as it was already one of my larger ones but I'm trying to get favorable tax treatment on the position since it's fallen so much from my cost basis (around $70). I'm buying shares in my IRA with the intent of selling the same number of shares in my taxable account at a later date (probably in the next 3 months or so).

Therefor, my exposure to the name will be elevated for the next few months as I accumulate shares in the IRA and wait to sell the shares in the taxable account to maximize the tax benefits.

 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on May 26, 2015, 04:26:57 PM
SDRXN (Sandridge Energy Inc Conv PFD 7% Perptl)


Thanks,
Lance

May I ask your rationale for buying SDRXN?  Also, did you consider SDRXP as well?  I am currently looking into buying SDRXP.  Do you worry about them suspending the common-stock dividend altogether?

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lowlight on May 26, 2015, 06:29:05 PM
AIQ today. Plan to add to OPY tomorrow (hopefully below $25).  Will probably add a little to AIQ if it falls again.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: randomep on May 26, 2015, 07:47:31 PM

Karelia Tobacco (Greece)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on May 27, 2015, 08:55:12 AM
Fossil inc
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on May 27, 2015, 12:31:33 PM
Sold short July $0.50 puts on ACI for $0.09 in my low P/B portfolio to put some of my cash to work.

18% yield for less than two months exposure for an equity that trades at just 7% of stated book value with a current ratio of 2.5x seems like a decent short term scenario to  me. Working to restructure debt due years out and bankruptcy is not currently being considered.

Owned the name before at $0.80 and sold out using call options for a total of $1.10 a month later. Hard to not want to keep entering this name and collecting volatility premiums from puts/calls while waiting for the news to hit.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on May 27, 2015, 05:53:57 PM
I bought more mcf today at $13.80.
Now I need to figure out how to raise some cash as I get nervous when I don't have any.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on May 28, 2015, 10:22:32 AM
Sold all of my SB and rolled into an equal number of SBLK.

I still like SB better, but I need some short-term losses to offset some gains this year. SB has also outperformed SBLK by about 35% over my holding period meaning I can book the losses to offset gains, increase my exposure to the dry bulk on a percentage ownership basis across the industry, pay down some margin, and consolidate in a company that is cheaper on a relative basis.


Also, picked up a starting position in PDER to motivate myself to look into it more.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 01, 2015, 03:42:28 PM
GUD.TO

Right back to the level of 6 months ago when they announced the sale of their priority review.  Still not cheap but at least we are a little further along.  The company has already made 1 exit already which was quite profitable so some evidence he still "has it".
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 03, 2015, 01:01:34 PM
SDRXP (Sandridge Energy INC Perpetual Prefferred Convertible 8.5%)

Thanks,
Lance


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: PatientCheetah on June 03, 2015, 03:44:01 PM
FCX VALE
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longlake95 on June 04, 2015, 05:08:57 AM
Well, I guess two of us own VALE! LOL. Talk about out of favour!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 04, 2015, 06:35:00 AM
Well, I guess two of us own VALE! LOL. Talk about out of favour!

I own it in my low-P/B portfolio. I have some shares purchased back in the high 5s and some puts sold against it at 6.50.

That being said - I don't know much about it. I don't do any research on these companies other than buying them under book value.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: DCG on June 04, 2015, 07:36:59 AM
Well, I guess two of us own VALE! LOL. Talk about out of favour!

I own it in my low-P/B portfolio. I have some shares purchased back in the high 5s and some puts sold against it at 6.50.

That being said - I don't know much about it. I don't do any research on these companies other than buying them under book value.


Do you run funds? People are paying you to put no effort into this?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: investor-man on June 04, 2015, 07:48:56 AM
perhaps some people ought to look into buying some TACT
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 04, 2015, 09:20:53 AM
Well, I guess two of us own VALE! LOL. Talk about out of favour!

I own it in my low-P/B portfolio. I have some shares purchased back in the high 5s and some puts sold against it at 6.50.

That being said - I don't know much about it. I don't do any research on these companies other than buying them under book value.


Do you run funds? People are paying you to put no effort into this?

its my IRA so maybe "portfolio" was misleading. Nobody pays me to be lazy except the people selling me these stocks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: CorpRaider on June 04, 2015, 11:45:44 AM
QVAL
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wachtwoord on June 04, 2015, 11:51:19 AM
SE, NOV
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wescobrk on June 04, 2015, 12:23:11 PM
I bought the last shares of MCF at $12.80. It's a full position now.
So far my timing has been brilliant, ha.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: jawn619 on June 04, 2015, 12:34:46 PM
what are you not buying today? Stocks on sale
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sys on June 04, 2015, 09:12:00 PM
bam.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: dutchman on June 04, 2015, 09:21:58 PM
sys, why bam? 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: sys on June 04, 2015, 10:51:48 PM
sys, why bam?

bam is already my largest holding, i have a lot of confidence in the mgmt.

i'm trying to position myself to be a little more defensive (probably foolishly, but it feels good) and bam has come down a little, presumably off the news that they're raising capital.  i think they'll put the capital to good use, so i have no problem with them raising money.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: berkshire101 on June 08, 2015, 10:43:17 AM
Bought BRK.B today. 
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 15, 2015, 07:49:41 AM
Shorted TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) and bough KMI

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: kab60 on June 15, 2015, 08:49:30 AM
Bought Ntelos again
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: no_free_lunch on June 19, 2015, 01:48:34 PM
DBA $26 Jan / 15 calls.   This is a tiny investment but I think the odds of a spike in grains is higher than the cost implies.   It will still probably be worth $0 but if it hits it could be 10,20,30, maybe even 40x.  Too many stories about drought out there and yet grains are fairly low.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on June 19, 2015, 02:07:09 PM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 22, 2015, 12:55:19 PM
Sold about 40% of my OUTR position today.

This is a continuation of my slow deleveraging to pay of margin debt and to raise a cash balance that I have been doing over the past few months.

I'll continue selling at intervals as soon as the gains hit their long-term status and the price stays around here or higher. Now that the shares are up 40%, I have to be more accurate in my assumptions of how quickly its business will decline for further value appreciation and I'm concerned about an overall market decline. I'd rather take the ~30% net profit over the last 12 months generated by margin and not be greedy and regret it.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on June 22, 2015, 05:12:09 PM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: TwoCitiesCapital on June 23, 2015, 06:39:21 AM
Just purchased a speculative position in BBRY again as software revenue does seem to be accelerating. Somewhat "blind" faith in John Chen but the numbers do seem to merit some confidence in the guy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: valueyoda on June 24, 2015, 07:13:15 PM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.

BRK is now as oversold as it was in 2009 and 2011 on the multi-day money flow index, a good long term contrarian indicator how much capital flows in and out of a stock. Often times, this happens in a later stage of the bull market when a stock after a strong up movement becomes highly oversold after a 6 month consolidation or correction period, only to use this as a springboard for a rapid move upwards.

BRK/B is definitely not as undervalued as it was in 2009 or 2011, but is still reasonably priced, with an intrinsic value around $167 per share. It should be noted that the p/b ratio becomes increasingly less relevant, since the percentage of BRK/B's free cash flow derived from non-insurance operations grows rapidly and will continue to do so in the future, so that using a 1.2x p/b multiple yardstick will cause many lost opportunities to buy the stock cheaply, as that particular ratio will only be reached during severe market distress.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Liberty on June 25, 2015, 05:10:51 AM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.

BRK is now as oversold as it was in 2009 and 2011 on the multi-day money flow index, a good long term contrarian indicator how much capital flows in and out of a stock. Often times, this happens in a later stage of the bull market when a stock after a strong up movement becomes highly oversold after a 6 month consolidation or correction period, only to use this as a springboard for a rapid move upwards.

BRK/B is definitely not as undervalued as it was in 2009 or 2011, but is still reasonably priced, with an intrinsic value around $167 per share. It should be noted that the p/b ratio becomes increasingly less relevant, since the percentage of BRK/B's free cash flow derived from non-insurance operations grows rapidly and will continue to do so in the future, so that using a 1.2x p/b multiple yardstick will cause many lost opportunities to buy the stock cheaply, as that particular ratio will only be reached during severe market distress.

Thanks. The word "oversold" can mean many things, so I wanted to know which one you meant.

Cheers.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 25, 2015, 07:32:25 AM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.

BRK is now as oversold as it was in 2009 and 2011 on the multi-day money flow index, a good long term contrarian indicator how much capital flows in and out of a stock. Often times, this happens in a later stage of the bull market when a stock after a strong up movement becomes highly oversold after a 6 month consolidation or correction period, only to use this as a springboard for a rapid move upwards.

BRK/B is definitely not as undervalued as it was in 2009 or 2011, but is still reasonably priced, with an intrinsic value around $167 per share. It should be noted that the p/b ratio becomes increasingly less relevant, since the percentage of BRK/B's free cash flow derived from non-insurance operations grows rapidly and will continue to do so in the future, so that using a 1.2x p/b multiple yardstick will cause many lost opportunities to buy the stock cheaply, as that particular ratio will only be reached during severe market distress.
The 1.2x becomes a red herring with each year passing. Earnings, especially retained earnings, ballooning while BV is marked to original cost makes the 1.2 look silly. All they are saying is that they won't buy back shares if it  isn't a 50 cent dollar. Just like anything else they'd buy.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Zorrofan on June 25, 2015, 01:28:58 PM
Shorted TNA (Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X Shares) and bough KMI

Thanks,
Lance

Lance,

Regarding KMI, I am considering lightening up as I am anticipating another "taper tantrum" when the FED finally raises rates this fall. Also worried about the high payout ratio, they are paying out the vast majority of their cashflow.....your thoughts?

cheers
Zorro
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 25, 2015, 08:14:25 PM
Hi Zorro - I think it probably moves lower when the Fed raises and am watching the payout ratio.  I sold my position in full in April and will likely ease back into it as/if it moves lower.  My recent purchase was about 20 percent of what I previously held.

Thanks
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Fowci on June 25, 2015, 11:11:01 PM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.

BRK is now as oversold as it was in 2009 and 2011 on the multi-day money flow index, a good long term contrarian indicator how much capital flows in and out of a stock. Often times, this happens in a later stage of the bull market when a stock after a strong up movement becomes highly oversold after a 6 month consolidation or correction period, only to use this as a springboard for a rapid move upwards.

BRK/B is definitely not as undervalued as it was in 2009 or 2011, but is still reasonably priced, with an intrinsic value around $167 per share. It should be noted that the p/b ratio becomes increasingly less relevant, since the percentage of BRK/B's free cash flow derived from non-insurance operations grows rapidly and will continue to do so in the future, so that using a 1.2x p/b multiple yardstick will cause many lost opportunities to buy the stock cheaply, as that particular ratio will only be reached during severe market distress.
The 1.2x becomes a red herring with each year passing. Earnings, especially retained earnings, ballooning while BV is marked to original cost makes the 1.2 look silly. All they are saying is that they won't buy back shares if it  isn't a 50 cent dollar. Just like anything else they'd buy.

Retained earnings are included in book value - not quite sure what your point is?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Shawn on June 28, 2015, 02:50:50 AM
Large caps like Walmart and ExxonMobil are getting cheaper, prompting a closer look and possibly an investment.

Is it me or are P/E ratios starting to lower ?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 28, 2015, 04:42:56 PM
CSTM, MU, CHK and BRK/B (Berkshire is now as oversold as it was at the 2009 and 2011 lows, despite only a minor correction).

Can you explain your thinking behind your view that BRK is as oversold now as in 2009/2011? Thanks.

BRK is now as oversold as it was in 2009 and 2011 on the multi-day money flow index, a good long term contrarian indicator how much capital flows in and out of a stock. Often times, this happens in a later stage of the bull market when a stock after a strong up movement becomes highly oversold after a 6 month consolidation or correction period, only to use this as a springboard for a rapid move upwards.

BRK/B is definitely not as undervalued as it was in 2009 or 2011, but is still reasonably priced, with an intrinsic value around $167 per share. It should be noted that the p/b ratio becomes increasingly less relevant, since the percentage of BRK/B's free cash flow derived from non-insurance operations grows rapidly and will continue to do so in the future, so that using a 1.2x p/b multiple yardstick will cause many lost opportunities to buy the stock cheaply, as that particular ratio will only be reached during severe market distress.
The 1.2x becomes a red herring with each year passing. Earnings, especially retained earnings, ballooning while BV is marked to original cost makes the 1.2 look silly. All they are saying is that they won't buy back shares if it  isn't a 50 cent dollar. Just like anything else they'd buy.

Retained earnings are included in book value - not quite sure what your point is?

http://www.rationalwalk.com/?p=13422

The above piece captures my thought. Yes, retained earnings are included in BV but as the article above point out, the dominant proportion of the BV understatement come from how accounting requires them to treat their wholly owned business investments. (BNSF, Marmon mentioned but also age-old holdings like Geico). In other words, FV of these businesses is diverging away forever from BV. Retained earnings is the smaller part of BV and getting smaller vis a vis unaccounted FV. Additionally, retaining earnings wisely (making one dollar more than one) is the story of this corporation, no? Turning a dying textile business into this behemoth by wisely reinvesting earnings, no?

At the time of writing of the above article, 44% of retained earnings during BRK's 50 year history were retained since 2009. Make that >60% as of today. Why I believe they are comfortable with buying back shares at 1.2xBV. Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar. Look for the 1.2xBV floor to be revised upwards to 1.5x....2.0x over time. It will still be a 50 cent dollar at the time because of BV understatement. Could take 10 more years but in all likelihood it will. It will be irony that as their size precludes them from easily finding 50 cent dollars elsewhere, their own stock may!
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 29, 2015, 08:23:07 AM
 AXP, PRU and NCZ (Allianz Convertible & Income Fund)


Thanks,
Lance


Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on June 29, 2015, 09:01:53 AM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: drzola on June 29, 2015, 09:05:34 AM
Russell Brewery!

Cheers.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 29, 2015, 09:22:32 AM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on June 29, 2015, 09:46:10 AM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

Thanks!

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 29, 2015, 09:57:35 AM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

Thanks!

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.

While on the subject, I've seen many calculators / calculations using two columns, using DCF etc. But not much discussed about the "third (more subjective) element" which deals with the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed. WEB covers this on page 123-124 of the AR.

Your thoughts on this? After all, retained earnings is the story of Berkshire since 2009. Curious as to your take on this.

Thanks
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ourkid8 on June 29, 2015, 10:18:43 AM
Are you purchasing RB shares to swap them for Premier? It's cheaper then buying premier directly!  :)

Russell Brewery!

Cheers.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: drzola on June 29, 2015, 10:46:07 AM
Are you purchasing RB shares to swap them for Premier? It's cheaper then buying premier directly!  :)

Russell Brewery!

Cheers.
  Yes.  Alot more volume as well.

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: notorious546 on June 29, 2015, 11:34:02 AM
do we have an "What are you selling today?" thread.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: ASTA on June 29, 2015, 11:49:44 AM
PCP (7%) if this does not work I might as well buy S&P 500 I am done buying cheap assets/stocks my hit % in Quality is much better.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on June 29, 2015, 05:41:00 PM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

Thanks!

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.

While on the subject, I've seen many calculators / calculations using two columns, using DCF etc. But not much discussed about the "third (more subjective) element" which deals with the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed. WEB covers this on page 123-124 of the AR.

Your thoughts on this? After all, retained earnings is the story of Berkshire since 2009. Curious as to your take on this.

Thanks

I think Buffett is happy to deploy capital when he can get a very high probability of 10% returns. His investments - WFC, IBM, Capex at Utilities, his various preferred investments, etc - all indicate he is happy with 10%.  He might get a chance on occasion to deploy capital at higher rates but they are going to be only a few such opportunities.

Some of the internal reinvestment opportunities are going to be at higher rates and he is going to pay premiums for new businesses that generate high ROIC or ROE.

But I think all in all, a 10% return on retained earnings is what we can expect. So that is my estimate for "efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed".

IMO - For the really small subset of very high quality companies like Berkshire, Coke, Walmart, etc. it is more useful to estimate the growth rate of IV rather than focusing on IV itself. This would allow you to estimate what returns you are likely to get over the very long term if you just hold this investment. This way you avoid the most speculative component of valuation - changes in multiples. 

Vinod

Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Palantir on June 29, 2015, 07:12:18 PM
10% on the asset or 10% after the effect of leverage?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 29, 2015, 09:18:47 PM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

Thanks!

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.

While on the subject, I've seen many calculators / calculations using two columns, using DCF etc. But not much discussed about the "third (more subjective) element" which deals with the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed. WEB covers this on page 123-124 of the AR.

Your thoughts on this? After all, retained earnings is the story of Berkshire since 2009. Curious as to your take on this.

Thanks

I think Buffett is happy to deploy capital when he can get a very high probability of 10% returns. His investments - WFC, IBM, Capex at Utilities, his various preferred investments, etc - all indicate he is happy with 10%.  He might get a chance on occasion to deploy capital at higher rates but they are going to be only a few such opportunities.

Some of the internal reinvestment opportunities are going to be at higher rates and he is going to pay premiums for new businesses that generate high ROIC or ROE.

But I think all in all, a 10% return on retained earnings is what we can expect. So that is my estimate for "efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed".

IMO - For the really small subset of very high quality companies like Berkshire, Coke, Walmart, etc. it is more useful to estimate the growth rate of IV rather than focusing on IV itself. This would allow you to estimate what returns you are likely to get over the very long term if you just hold this investment. This way you avoid the most speculative component of valuation - changes in multiples. 

Vinod

If IV is made up of 1. Investments/share + 2. Operating Earnings per share + 3. Incremental return on Retained Earnings

Readily Calculable
1) = $140,000
2) = 10x $11,000 = $121,000

Efficacy of RE deployed - estimate of future
3) = NPV of incremental earnings from RE= $81,000
  How I get to this: RE for 2012-13-14: $14B, $20B, $20B; If we held RE constant at $20B for the next 20 years (WEB has stated this "as far as the eye can see") and the retained earnings start producing a 10% return 3 years out; 10% Discount rate

So 1+2+3 = $342,000;  There's my 2.4x BV. Conservative enough? If you ask me, they will retain far more than what I'm assuming, earn better than 10%. Agree with you, they look for a near certain 10% return; 

The retained earnings is of growing significance just by sheer magnitude. A standout comment by Munger in his commentary, "BRK will do fine without ever making another acquisition" perhaps has this baked in.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on June 30, 2015, 04:36:15 AM
Hi longinvestor,

I think investment / share will overstate BRK  IV

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/i-hate-this-post/msg213620/#msg213620
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2013/03/value-of-investments-per-share.html
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2011/12/so-what-is-berkshire-hathaway-really.html

I'm confused by the concept of retained earning being a separate component of value. When you are valuing investments / share & the current estate of operating businesses, does not the value thereof include the PV of their reinvested earnings? Isn't an earnings multiple simply a shorthand DCF with an implied growth rate? The growth comes from reinvested retained earnings, right?
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wknecht on June 30, 2015, 04:53:48 AM
Hi longinvestor,

I think investment / share will overstate BRK  IV

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/i-hate-this-post/msg213620/#msg213620
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2013/03/value-of-investments-per-share.html
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2011/12/so-what-is-berkshire-hathaway-really.html

I'm confused by the concept of retained earning being a separate component of value. When you are valuing investments / share & the current estate of operating businesses, does not the value thereof include the PV of their reinvested earnings? Isn't an earnings multiple simply a shorthand DCF with an implied growth rate? The growth comes from reinvested retained earnings, right?
In your post on the other thread your argument seems to be that the float should not be added back because the assets are invested in low yielding securities. Can you clarify this? Why are the assets at all relevant to the valuation of the liabilities?

Seems to me you should value them separately, and if you think the assets earn below market returns, then subtract from the assets, not the float.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: wknecht on June 30, 2015, 05:09:13 AM
I think an argument could be made that adding the float back is conservative because it doesn't go far enough. The float has produced income uninterrupted for a long time (12 years if my memory serves), absent any contribution from the assets, so are arguably assets.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: thepupil on June 30, 2015, 05:11:47 AM
The assets are related to the liabilities because the $80B or so of cash and short term high quality fixed income that berkshire keeps around is effectively to collateralize the float. Brooklyn investor speaks about it more eloquently than I can in the other links.

Unless you think some of that $80B is excess capital and can be freed up (which may be the case, if so adjust for that), then shareholders don't effectively own that cash as it is required to run the business. Instead they own the spread between what that cash and fixed income earns and the cost to obtain it.

Since that spread is not high enough to justify a value that effectively adds back the whole float, I think investments / share is inherently flawed.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 30, 2015, 05:11:48 AM
Hi longinvestor,

I think investment / share will overstate BRK  IV

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/i-hate-this-post/msg213620/#msg213620
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2013/03/value-of-investments-per-share.html
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2011/12/so-what-is-berkshire-hathaway-really.html

I'm confused by the concept of retained earning being a separate component of value. When you are valuing investments / share & the current estate of operating businesses, does not the value thereof include the PV of their reinvested earnings? Isn't an earnings multiple simply a shorthand DCF with an implied growth rate? The growth comes from reinvested retained earnings, right?
I thought about that and to keep past clearly separate from future, the PV only includes RE from year 2012 onwards. All prior RE ignored in PV calculation. Also on #2,  used a 10x multiple for a business where earnings have grown 20% for a very long time. Surely no double counting, no ?

RE, as described by WEB is in lieu of dividend payouts. If $400B were to be paid out over the next 20 years and we reinvested it, isn't that separate from operating earnings? Both BNSF and BHE, where the lion's share is being retained are choosing to do this (100%). So yes, Vinod's suggestion is to estimate BRK's IV from earnings growth rate. If my thesis is correct, the recently burgeoning RE story should show up in a higher earnings growth than 20%! Just working with my boredom and tired of only using past #s
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on June 30, 2015, 09:21:35 AM
AMIGY

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on June 30, 2015, 09:55:54 AM
10% on the asset or 10% after the effect of leverage?

10% after leverage. Basically ROE.

Since they are likely to keep about $30 billion on average in cash and need to pay taxes on capital gains, leverage basically pays for the drag of these two. So we end up with ROE of about 10%

Vinod.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: vinod1 on June 30, 2015, 10:38:36 AM
Estimates of IV suggests that the 1.2xBV is a 50 cent dollar.

Hi longinvestor,

Does this mean that your estimate of IV for BRK is 2.4x BV? Just curious, I have never been able to justify much above 2x BV even in my most optimistic scenario.

Thanks

Vinod

Thanks!

I'm not the numbers type, yet indulged because of boredom that comes with owning BRK. Playing around with assumptions (discount rate, owner earnings etc.), my IV range is between $240,000 and $340,000. The big range supports my vaguely correct posture and I'm comfortable with it. While I may be over optimistic, the market continues to under estimate BRK as the norm. Been buying more.

While on the subject, I've seen many calculators / calculations using two columns, using DCF etc. But not much discussed about the "third (more subjective) element" which deals with the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed. WEB covers this on page 123-124 of the AR.

Your thoughts on this? After all, retained earnings is the story of Berkshire since 2009. Curious as to your take on this.

Thanks

I think Buffett is happy to deploy capital when he can get a very high probability of 10% returns. His investments - WFC, IBM, Capex at Utilities, his various preferred investments, etc - all indicate he is happy with 10%.  He might get a chance on occasion to deploy capital at higher rates but they are going to be only a few such opportunities.

Some of the internal reinvestment opportunities are going to be at higher rates and he is going to pay premiums for new businesses that generate high ROIC or ROE.

But I think all in all, a 10% return on retained earnings is what we can expect. So that is my estimate for "efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed".

IMO - For the really small subset of very high quality companies like Berkshire, Coke, Walmart, etc. it is more useful to estimate the growth rate of IV rather than focusing on IV itself. This would allow you to estimate what returns you are likely to get over the very long term if you just hold this investment. This way you avoid the most speculative component of valuation - changes in multiples. 

Vinod

If IV is made up of 1. Investments/share + 2. Operating Earnings per share + 3. Incremental return on Retained Earnings

Readily Calculable
1) = $140,000
2) = 10x $11,000 = $121,000

Efficacy of RE deployed - estimate of future
3) = NPV of incremental earnings from RE= $81,000
  How I get to this: RE for 2012-13-14: $14B, $20B, $20B; If we held RE constant at $20B for the next 20 years (WEB has stated this "as far as the eye can see") and the retained earnings start producing a 10% return 3 years out; 10% Discount rate

So 1+2+3 = $342,000;  There's my 2.4x BV. Conservative enough? If you ask me, they will retain far more than what I'm assuming, earn better than 10%. Agree with you, they look for a near certain 10% return; 

The retained earnings is of growing significance just by sheer magnitude. A standout comment by Munger in his commentary, "BRK will do fine without ever making another acquisition" perhaps has this baked in.

IMO, the multiple you put on #2 is based on "the efficacy with which retained earnings will be deployed".

If you do it this way, in effect you are saying a $1 of operating earnings are worth about 27.4 times. So you are putting a PE multiple of 27.4

$121,000 + $81,000 = $202,000 value for operating businesses.

These are earning pre-tax about $11,000.

At a 33% tax rate, after tax earnings are $7370.

PE multiple = 202,000/7370 = 27.4


You would certainly be able to justify these depending on your assumptions about expected returns, required return, retention and length of the period where expected returns exceed required returns. But to me they would not be conservative. But again, that would just be me and I have a tendency to be very conservative in my estimates.

Vinod
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on June 30, 2015, 01:00:02 PM
Assets are only worth what they produce. A lot of those investments are used for liquidity purposes and the benefit is already accounted for through lower interest rates and better deals. Try calculating the pass-through earnings.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: saltybit on June 30, 2015, 01:02:13 PM
DTEGY and NTLS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Matti on June 30, 2015, 01:37:04 PM
NTLS
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: tombgrt on June 30, 2015, 01:54:18 PM
NTLS

NTLS

Same (again)! ;)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: longinvestor on June 30, 2015, 09:02:04 PM
Hi longinvestor,

I think investment / share will overstate BRK  IV

http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/i-hate-this-post/msg213620/#msg213620
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2013/03/value-of-investments-per-share.html
http://brooklyninvestor.blogspot.com/2011/12/so-what-is-berkshire-hathaway-really.html

I'm confused by the concept of retained earning being a separate component of value. When you are valuing investments / share & the current estate of operating businesses, does not the value thereof include the PV of their reinvested earnings? Isn't an earnings multiple simply a shorthand DCF with an implied growth rate? The growth comes from reinvested retained earnings, right?
I thought about that and to keep past clearly separate from future, the PV only includes RE from year 2012 onwards. All prior RE ignored in PV calculation. Also on #2,  used a 10x multiple for a business where earnings have grown 20% for a very long time. Surely no double counting, no ?

RE, as described by WEB is in lieu of dividend payouts. If $400B were to be paid out over the next 20 years and we reinvested it, isn't that separate from operating earnings? Both BNSF and BHE, where the lion's share is being retained are choosing to do this (100%). So yes, Vinod's suggestion is to estimate BRK's IV from earnings growth rate. If my thesis is correct, the recently burgeoning RE story should show up in a higher earnings growth than 20%! Just working with my boredom and tired of only using past #s

I ran across this quote from Munger, thought I'd re-post here with all of this back-and-forth about calcs

Warren talks about these discounted cash flows. I’ve never seen him do one.” ["It's true," replied Buffett. "If (the value of
a company) doesn't just scream out at you, it's too close."
] 1996 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Lance on July 07, 2015, 02:39:01 PM
Over the past week or so I've bought AMIGY, AXP, BP, GSK, MET, NLY, PRU and RDS-b. 

Thanks,
Lance
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: orthopa on July 07, 2015, 03:37:31 PM
Bought some more BP today, 6.2% div yield.  :)
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: gokou3 on July 07, 2015, 04:33:55 PM
Bought a small position in CHAD yesterday for a bearish view on the Chinese market.  This is after seeing that the chinese government implemented various desperate / foolish policies to try support the stock market index values with muted effect.  The retail investors which constituted 80% of the Chinese stock market will continue to exit their (margined) positions.  Up 10% today.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: KinAlberta on July 08, 2015, 11:48:11 AM
Bought a small position in CHAD yesterday for a bearish view on the Chinese market.  This is after seeing that the chinese government implemented various desperate / foolish policies to try support the stock market index values with muted effect.  The retail investors which constituted 80% of the Chinese stock market will continue to exit their (margined) positions.  Up 10% today.

It's a tough call.  When I do things like this I take an extremely short term view, grabbing quick profits and feeling lucky.  My view is that, like bubbles eventually popping, some wars are quite predictable, but the battles and outcomes aren't. Once a war starts the unexpected dominates the scene.
Title: Re: What are you buying today?
Post by: Schwab711 on July 08, 2015, 01:04:46 PM
Bought a small position in CHAD yesterday for a bearish view on the Chinese market.  This is after seeing that the chinese government implemented various desperate / foolish policies to try support the stock market index values with muted effect.  The retail investors which constituted 80% of the Chinese stock market will continue to exit their (margined) positions.  Up 10% today.

This position is literally fighting an entire country that is on the opposite end of the trade. What holdings does CHAD own? I sincerely doubt they have true short positions so you are taking on significant amount of currency risk, market risk, tracking risk, possible near-term stimulus/bailouts, and you may have ownership issues (assuming CHAD has "simple" holdings). I haven't looked at CHAD at all, but