Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 980568 times)

Jurgis

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2620 on: December 07, 2017, 01:00:12 PM »
If I knew that RE is going compound at 12% going forward 5-10 years, I'd buy tons of it.

I don't think there are (m)any opportunities in current market that offer 12% going forward. (IMO neither BRK nor FFH do; 12% is reachable for both just far from certain).

I doubt that RE (or AXS) can do 12% going forward either. I think that (re)insurance is still soft and gonna remain soft. Plus fixed income returns are crappy.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2017, 01:02:10 PM by Jurgis »
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Og

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2621 on: December 07, 2017, 01:25:08 PM »
If I knew that RE is going compound at 12% going forward 5-10 years, I'd buy tons of it.

I don't think there are (m)any opportunities in current market that offer 12% going forward. (IMO neither BRK nor FFH do; 12% is reachable for both just far from certain).

I doubt that RE (or AXS) can do 12% going forward either. I think that (re)insurance is still soft and gonna remain soft. Plus fixed income returns are crappy.

Got it. Different strokes. I think there's much cheaper shit out there. But that's what makes a market.

Bojack

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2622 on: December 07, 2017, 01:49:37 PM »
bought some bitcoin... where do i report for reindoctrination?

gjangal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2623 on: December 07, 2017, 08:06:19 PM »
bought some bitcoin... where do i report for reindoctrination?

There are many people signing up for accounts at exchanges still. This thing is going to go on for a while

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2624 on: December 09, 2017, 07:38:39 AM »
recent buys are MLPs - BPL and SEP, which seem to have come under selling presssure (tax loss selling?)

I also bought some RE - a solid up insurance company that got hit by the hurricane season (like just about anyone else in the industry) , but has a very solid history of book value growth and reserving history. I think the latter is a better buy than BRK right now.

RE has compounded BV at 12% since 1995. You don't think there's better stuff out there? Do you think they will compound higher in the future? Paying around book value seems good but can probably do better, no?

As Jurgis stated, I donít think they will do 12% going forward, but neither do BRK and FFH, which trades at richer multiple of P/B.

If you know a compounder that is cheap, relatively low risk and can do 12% going forward, you should tell us about it.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

Bojack

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2625 on: December 10, 2017, 02:00:13 PM »
bought some bitcoin... where do i report for reindoctrination?

There are many people signing up for accounts at exchanges still. This thing is going to go on for a while

I agree... worth a flyer position (1 - 2%) imo in case it gets real weird next year

Dynamic

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2626 on: December 11, 2017, 08:54:17 AM »
BRK.B at $196.69 (increasing stake from 55% to 65% of portfolio using essentially all accumulated cash awaiting investment + dividends received).

Portfolio is now 65% BRK.B, 28% AAPL, 4% WFC plus a few bits and bobs mostly at modest valuations. (My effective AAPL and WFC exposures are about 31% and 8% respectively on a look-through basis).

See this message for reasoning: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/2017-ye-intrinsic-value-versus-market-value/msg317834

This represents a bit of a change of opinion for me.

Looks like a sound investment for long term (I'd expect 7-10% CAGR above inflation) plus fairly high probability of limited downside risk over next year or two (meaning we should be able to snap up deep value bargains when we see them by trading some BRK.B or AAPL and any new cash awaiting investment, meaning we shouldn't lose a lot of that cash optionality and may gain some buying power if BRK.B appreciates above $196), by which time the buyback threshold should have reached our purchase price (unless the tax reform bill fails to make it into law, in which case it'll be a few years longer and we might have to ride out some temporary quotational losses, but should still be in line for 7-10% real terms return long term).

DooDiligence

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2627 on: December 11, 2017, 09:08:05 AM »
Sold AZO after a 40% + ST run.

I think management is chasing DIFM when ORLY & GPC have a lock on.
Also ignoring e-commerce & subsequently not skating towards the puck where their core customers are going to be.

Hazards of operating leverage biting them in a downturn + working capital maybe going to shit if vendors regain power (GPC doesn't appear to abuse their vendors as badly.)

Negative owners equity WTFK?

I have no replacement & am happy to keep GPC / NAPA as I like the owner / operator model.
« Last Edit: December 11, 2017, 02:36:17 PM by DooDiligence »
abc 2.6 | abev 2.4 | aapl 0.9 | bbh 3.3 | brk.b 11.6 | chtr 4.2 | cvs 5.7 | dva 5.6 | dis 4.1 | ew 2.1 | gpc 2.8 | mo 6.2 | nvo 5.1 | sftby 2.3 | vde 4.2

(%'s held @ cost, PV allos are slightly 2 significantly higher. includes a slowly dwindling cash pile.)

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no_free_lunch

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2628 on: December 11, 2017, 10:00:45 AM »
BRK.B at $196.69 (increasing stake from 55% to 65% of portfolio using essentially all accumulated cash awaiting investment + dividends received).

Portfolio is now 65% BRK.B, 28% AAPL, 4% WFC plus a few bits and bobs mostly at modest valuations. (My effective AAPL and WFC exposures are about 31% and 8% respectively on a look-through basis).

This is quite the concentrated portfolio!  It sounds like you have done your research and those two are very solid companies but still, I couldn't go this concentrated.  Just curious if you can disclose anything about your portfolio size.  Maybe something that keeps it relatively confidential such as portfolio size relative to a year of savings?

DooDiligence

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2629 on: December 11, 2017, 02:43:42 PM »
BRK.B at $196.69 (increasing stake from 55% to 65% of portfolio using essentially all accumulated cash awaiting investment + dividends received).

Portfolio is now 65% BRK.B, 28% AAPL, 4% WFC plus a few bits and bobs mostly at modest valuations. (My effective AAPL and WFC exposures are about 31% and 8% respectively on a look-through basis).

See this message for reasoning: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/berkshire-hathaway/2017-ye-intrinsic-value-versus-market-value/msg317834

This represents a bit of a change of opinion for me.

Looks like a sound investment for long term (I'd expect 7-10% CAGR above inflation) plus fairly high probability of limited downside risk over next year or two (meaning we should be able to snap up deep value bargains when we see them by trading some BRK.B or AAPL and any new cash awaiting investment, meaning we shouldn't lose a lot of that cash optionality and may gain some buying power if BRK.B appreciates above $196), by which time the buyback threshold should have reached our purchase price (unless the tax reform bill fails to make it into law, in which case it'll be a few years longer and we might have to ride out some temporary quotational losses, but should still be in line for 7-10% real terms return long term).

Courage!

I'd be prepared to go to 33 1/3 if the damn thing would drop but since it won't cooperate, I'll continue the DCA program (thanks to Fidelity for dropping trou (trow?) on commissions & making this possible.)

Need to free up some study time & I'd sleep like a baby owning that much BRK.B (I'm giving DQ gift cards to all my young friends & fams in an attempt to garner a new generation of biz for them & just realized that I need to add some See's boxes into the mix.)

If I were more generous, I'd buy someone a trailer...
abc 2.6 | abev 2.4 | aapl 0.9 | bbh 3.3 | brk.b 11.6 | chtr 4.2 | cvs 5.7 | dva 5.6 | dis 4.1 | ew 2.1 | gpc 2.8 | mo 6.2 | nvo 5.1 | sftby 2.3 | vde 4.2

(%'s held @ cost, PV allos are slightly 2 significantly higher. includes a slowly dwindling cash pile.)

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