Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1177857 times)

Lakesider

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 142
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2970 on: May 17, 2018, 02:00:40 PM »
Bought Naspers,

I think the discount is enough margin of safety, Tencent could be overvalued. I'm not smart enough to value Tencent but i'm happy to get everything else for free. I think there is value in the other holdings will be realised later.

Hoping management get increasingly desperate to demonstrate the value and follow through spinning off other units.


DanielGMask

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
    • How to Be Millionaire
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2971 on: May 17, 2018, 02:23:13 PM »
It is based on relative purchasing power, term spread and cash interest rates. The mexican peso right now is very undervalued on rppp (~35%) against the USD and ranks very high on term spread and interest rates. Ruerd Heeg on Seeking Alpha has some good articles on currencies.

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate thatís leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesnít mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets.

The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (Iím not), I would bet against the peso!
You should follow me on twitter @ManSalceda

Rainforesthiker

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 149
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2972 on: May 17, 2018, 09:29:44 PM »
I added to my Markel position.  Every time I hear their investor presentation in Omaha I have to buy more.
The key question:  What is the "inefficient rationale" - the reason the market is mispricing the stock.  Why doesn't the powerful force of the wisdom of the crowd manifest here to produce the correct price?

frommi

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 1179
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2973 on: May 17, 2018, 10:22:54 PM »
It is based on relative purchasing power, term spread and cash interest rates. The mexican peso right now is very undervalued on rppp (~35%) against the USD and ranks very high on term spread and interest rates. Ruerd Heeg on Seeking Alpha has some good articles on currencies.

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate thatís leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesnít mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets.

The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (Iím not), I would bet against the peso!

I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong.

StevieV

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 163
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2974 on: May 18, 2018, 05:19:12 AM »
I added to my Markel position.  Every time I hear their investor presentation in Omaha I have to buy more.

Anything in-particular from this year's presentation?  The stock seems a bit expensive to me here.

bennycx

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 152
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2975 on: May 18, 2018, 05:29:27 AM »
ADS/NLSN

Can you give a short thesis on ADS?

Cardboard

  • Lifetime Member
  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2886
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2976 on: May 18, 2018, 06:08:58 AM »
T-CVE calls Oct $12 CAD strike. Stock itself is a great buy but, I am low on cash  :o

Great CEO who gets it. Fundamentals in their favour. Very undervalued on absolute basis and to its peers such as CNRL: price per flowing, vs cash flow, vs reserves. Prime destination for U.S. investors wanting to invest in Canadian energy rebound (listed on NYSE + liquid).

Former management paid too high of a price, at the time, for Conoco assets but, at these prices it is really worth it. Christina Lake is a pearl with best in class steam to oil ratio of 1.8 times. Hedges entered at the time are also rolling off so cash flow will really take off in H2. Combined with a few small asset sales, debt concerns will go away.

Cardboard

Voodooking

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 107
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2977 on: May 18, 2018, 08:02:21 AM »
BABA - 5% position.

cameronfen

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 287
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2978 on: May 18, 2018, 12:47:10 PM »
Bought Naspers,

I think the discount is enough margin of safety, Tencent could be overvalued. I'm not smart enough to value Tencent but i'm happy to get everything else for free. I think there is value in the other holdings will be realised later.

Hoping management get increasingly desperate to demonstrate the value and follow through spinning off other units.

I think there is a high probability that Tencent is undervalued.  Here is a post by Saber Capital (I think John posts here but idk the name): http://sabercapitalmgt.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/Tencents-Wide-Moat-Manual-of-Ideas-2017.pdf

Mainly compare the ARPU versus facebook.  Obviously they are different businesses, but Wechat may be even better business than fb.  The average person in China spends half their time on the internet on Tencent properties.  That's not being monetized hardly at all compared to western standards. 

DanielGMask

  • Full Member
  • ***
  • Posts: 150
    • How to Be Millionaire
Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #2979 on: May 18, 2018, 01:21:47 PM »
It is based on relative purchasing power, term spread and cash interest rates. The mexican peso right now is very undervalued on rppp (~35%) against the USD and ranks very high on term spread and interest rates. Ruerd Heeg on Seeking Alpha has some good articles on currencies.

Seems dangerous! I live in Mexico and we are about to elect a new president and part of congress. The candidate thatís leading (by a lot!) is clearly socialist and against market systems. This doesnít mean that if he wins he is going to nationalize private companies or move against industry, nor that congress will approve such decisions, but he may control an important part of congress and indeed make some moves against free markets.

The peso is reflecting some of these fears and if I were to bet (Iím not), I would bet against the peso!

I base my investment decisions on facts, not on news or emotions. But hey, that makes a market. Maybe i am wrong.

Currency speculation is precisely that, speculation. And facts tend to be deceiving when dealing in an speculating environment, but seems you are comfortable and convinced of what you are doing. I was just trying to point you in the direction of some ďfactsĒ you consider news or emotions, so be my guest!
You should follow me on twitter @ManSalceda