Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1303773 times)

wisowis

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3020 on: June 05, 2018, 07:15:46 PM »
I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday.

Itís a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par.

The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I donít think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger.

So from what I can tell, the interest rate on the debs varies between 8.5-13.5%, depending on the (weekly) spot market price of uranium oxide. Management doesn't expect the price to exceed 54.99 by 2020, the price above which the interest rate increases (and price is currently at 22.75$, from Google).

Any reason to be optimistic about a bull market in uranium?


SafetyinNumbers

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3021 on: June 06, 2018, 03:29:31 AM »
I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday.

Itís a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par.

The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I donít think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger.

So from what I can tell, the interest rate on the debs varies between 8.5-13.5%, depending on the (weekly) spot market price of uranium oxide. Management doesn't expect the price to exceed 54.99 by 2020, the price above which the interest rate increases (and price is currently at 22.75$, from Google).

Any reason to be optimistic about a bull market in uranium?

Yes, I think so. The current Uranium spot price is too low for anyone to make money. Most producers locked into long term contract pricing much higher than spot which are expiring over the next few years. In response, Cameco and other large producers have decided to cut production and use existing inventory and buy in the spot market to fulfill production in order to preserve their resource for higher prices. Utilities will have to negotiate contract pricing soon and it will likely come in well above current prices. Itís a classical deep cyclical play that is complicated by an opaque market, two tiered pricing and extremely long lead times.

I bought more yesterday with the stock surging higher and a holder of the debentures being forced to sell for what I can only assume are liquidity reasons.
Top 5 positions: ELF GCM.NT/GCM.WT.B PIF EFR.DB TII.V

benchmark

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3022 on: June 06, 2018, 07:05:51 AM »
On Friday I wrote USB 50-strike July 20th expiration puts for $1 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.65 per share, and BK 55-strike June 8 expiration puts for $0.43 per share.

Today, in some non-margin accounts because I had to wait for options to expire last Friday, I wrote some USB 50-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.58 per share, WFC 54-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.67 per share, and BK 55-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share.

'write puts' == selling puts? and how do you decide which put to write? I sometimes sell puts as well, but only for one week or less time, maybe the profit/cost-of-selling isn't great?

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3023 on: June 06, 2018, 12:18:43 PM »
On Friday I wrote USB 50-strike July 20th expiration puts for $1 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.65 per share, and BK 55-strike June 8 expiration puts for $0.43 per share.

Today, in some non-margin accounts because I had to wait for options to expire last Friday, I wrote some USB 50-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share, USB 50-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.58 per share, WFC 54-strike June 29 expiration puts for $0.67 per share, and BK 55-strike June 15 expiration puts for $0.55 per share.

'write puts' == selling puts? and how do you decide which put to write? I sometimes sell puts as well, but only for one week or less time, maybe the profit/cost-of-selling isn't great?

Yes, writing puts is the terminology for selling puts, for opening (writing) a put contract.

Most of the puts I write are nearer to expiration like you do, from a few days to about two weeks. There is more time value to obtain the closer to expiration. My strike price is the price at which I would not mind owning the stock, because I might! So it is also the way I enter my LTBH positions. When I go further out in time it is because the price I want to own the stock is further from where it is currently trading so I need more time value to make the cost of trading immaterial.

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3024 on: June 08, 2018, 12:56:03 PM »
Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share

gjangal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3025 on: June 08, 2018, 02:08:06 PM »
SNAP - small asymmetric bet. They have 6 quarters to improve engagement or get bought out or go bust. I think a platform with 190 mn dau with a better frequency of use compared to TWTR will survive

PANW - They have secular growth ahead of them. 73% gross margins. They will be a platform for network security. Missed the boat for so long.

gokou3

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3026 on: June 11, 2018, 04:35:01 PM »
Bought Terraform Power (TERP) today.  TERP just completed a private offering of $650M at $10.66/share to its sponsor Brookfield for the acquisition of Saeta Yield, owner of >1000MW of solar/wind power.  7% dividend yield, 5-8% annual growth guided by management.  80% 2018 pro-forma pay-out.  First-class management and alignment of interest with Brookfield.  Downside is high leverage but management states it is working on lowering to 4-5X, and the Saeta acquisition helps that effort.


gfp

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3027 on: June 11, 2018, 05:18:25 PM »
Good trade.  I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600...  Either way is nice.  Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly.

Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3028 on: June 11, 2018, 06:33:47 PM »
Thanks GFP, a week out is often a nice sweet spot!

Good trade.  I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600...  Either way is nice.  Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly.

Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3029 on: June 12, 2018, 07:07:19 PM »
My favorite holiday week to write puts is Thanksgiving. The market doesn't move much on that Friday so it is almost like Wednesday is expiration.

Good trade.  I like BRK at 193.80 and I like $600...  Either way is nice.  Its great to sell these close dated options on a Friday (before holiday weekends are even better) - even though it's all supposed to be priced in, I find that once it becomes the week of expiry, people's appetite for allowing nice premium diminishes quickly.

Wrote 5 June 15 expiration 195 strike BRKB puts for $1.20 per share