Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1386833 times)

frommi

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3780 on: May 14, 2019, 11:17:57 AM »
JUN 2020 TSLA PUTS 10$ for 0.25$ and 50$ for 2.37$. I think the bankruptcy risk for Tesla is massivly underpriced in these options. But maybe i am just to stupid to understand this.

That seems quite "ballsy." How large of position did you take if I might ask?

0.5%  :o
But i am also short TSLA call spreads and long a 200$ put since some months, so my whole TSLA short exposure is larger. I think my max loss from the current point is somewhere around ~10%, my max gain ~25%.


brycepeterson

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3781 on: May 14, 2019, 11:36:58 AM »
Atlantic Power (AT) at $2.50 per share or lower ($2.30's currently).  $3 per share easy; $4-$5 in two to three years.

AT is an electricity producer.  Owns power plants and sells the electricity it generates.  (Natural gas, hydo, solar, coal)

Story is FCF all being used for debt pay down.  CEO and management team excellent (read the shareholder letter).  FCF's out to 2022 per power purchase agreements = excellent FCF yield to Enterprise Value. 

Upside: FCF estimates do not include any recovery in wholesale power prices (currently depressed).

cherzeca

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3782 on: May 14, 2019, 01:30:26 PM »
JUN 2020 TSLA PUTS 10$ for 0.25$ and 50$ for 2.37$. I think the bankruptcy risk for Tesla is massivly underpriced in these options. But maybe i am just to stupid to understand this.

That seems quite "ballsy." How large of position did you take if I might ask?

0.5%  :o
But i am also short TSLA call spreads and long a 200$ put since some months, so my whole TSLA short exposure is larger. I think my max loss from the current point is somewhere around ~10%, my max gain ~25%.

problem is that even with bankruptcy common will be priced beyond value. if it happens pounce before the bounce

brycepeterson

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3783 on: May 14, 2019, 03:38:08 PM »
Correction to my Atlantic Power (AT) above:  Biomass is its fourth power plant type, not Solar.

gjangal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3784 on: May 15, 2019, 10:12:28 AM »
ADBE, DG and UNH. Not exactly cheap but they are just good companies to have for the long term. Will add more if any dips happen

SafetyinNumbers

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3785 on: May 15, 2019, 11:45:01 AM »
Itís been almost a year since the below post and Iím still waiting for Uranium to get moving.

I bought some NXE, CCO, and EFR.DB today.

This second half of this podcast by Mike Alkin who is a former hedge fund manager and now runs a Uranium dedicated fund sums up the bull case quite well.

http://themikealkinshow.curzioresearch.libsynpro.com/stop-looking-at-your-stock-screens-for-great-ideas-do-this-instead-ep-60


I bought some EFR.DB-TSX yesterday.

Itís a pretty interesting piece of paper to have access to a potential Uranium bull market while getting paid to wait. Maturity is Dec 2020, strike is C$4.15. Implied vol of the outstanding warrants is over 60% while the debs trade at par.

The debt issue is also a small part of the capital structure and I donít think they will have a problem raising money but of course I think the debs could be a multibagger.

So from what I can tell, the interest rate on the debs varies between 8.5-13.5%, depending on the (weekly) spot market price of uranium oxide. Management doesn't expect the price to exceed 54.99 by 2020, the price above which the interest rate increases (and price is currently at 22.75$, from Google).

Any reason to be optimistic about a bull market in uranium?

Yes, I think so. The current Uranium spot price is too low for anyone to make money. Most producers locked into long term contract pricing much higher than spot which are expiring over the next few years. In response, Cameco and other large producers have decided to cut production and use existing inventory and buy in the spot market to fulfill production in order to preserve their resource for higher prices. Utilities will have to negotiate contract pricing soon and it will likely come in well above current prices. Itís a classical deep cyclical play that is complicated by an opaque market, two tiered pricing and extremely long lead times.

I bought more yesterday with the stock surging higher and a holder of the debentures being forced to sell for what I can only assume are liquidity reasons.
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Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3786 on: May 15, 2019, 12:08:21 PM »
GOOG - what caused the inexplicable weakness yesterday and this AM and the even less explicable sudden jump this morning?
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

KCLarkin

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3787 on: May 15, 2019, 12:17:06 PM »
GOOG - what caused the inexplicable weakness yesterday and this AM and the even less explicable sudden jump this morning?

There seemed to be plenty of optimism about new ad units being released. Could that explain the price jump? I was going to buy more this morning but decided to buy something else once GOOG jumped.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3788 on: May 15, 2019, 12:38:02 PM »
GOOG - what caused the inexplicable weakness yesterday and this AM and the even less explicable sudden jump this morning?

There seemed to be plenty of optimism about new ad units being released. Could that explain the price jump? I was going to buy more this morning but decided to buy something else once GOOG jumped.

Yea I had an order ready to go right before the close yesterday as 1120 seemed excessive. I ultimately convinced myself to hold off because I'd deployed a fair amount of cash elsewhere recently and todays move is what I get for being a pussy. Google I find tends to overreact often. More times than not it is to the downside but there is no reason to be buying a stock like this on a +4% day.

SmallCap

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3789 on: May 15, 2019, 12:53:05 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.
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