Author Topic: What are you buying today?  (Read 1305238 times)

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3790 on: May 15, 2019, 03:19:28 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.


Lakesider

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3791 on: May 15, 2019, 03:45:55 PM »
MU, riding the 13Fs

sleepydragon

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3792 on: May 15, 2019, 03:56:13 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.

Plus you have to pay short term capital gain tax, and tie up the cash in the account until put is expired. Like Warren said, if you like the stock, just buy it.

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3793 on: May 15, 2019, 05:38:50 PM »
GOOG - what caused the inexplicable weakness yesterday and this AM and the even less explicable sudden jump this morning?

There seemed to be plenty of optimism about new ad units being released. Could that explain the price jump? I was going to buy more this morning but decided to buy something else once GOOG jumped.

Yea I had an order ready to go right before the close yesterday as 1120 seemed excessive. I ultimately convinced myself to hold off because I'd deployed a fair amount of cash elsewhere recently and todays move is what I get for being a pussy. Google I find tends to overreact often. More times than not it is to the downside but there is no reason to be buying a stock like this on a +4% day.

I flipped some of my FB sales proceeds from a while back in my IRAís into GOOG. I feel the stock is reasonably valued and much more safe than any of these other tech plays.

On MPC, I still have some more work to do, since I havenít looked at refiners for a while. What I think Mr. market is missing (or at least underestimating) is the cash flows that these companies are getting from their midstream operations, which by now exceed the cash generated from the refining business itself. Then they have these captive MLP which allow them to monetize assets around 9-10x EBITDA when their stocks trade at <6x EBITDA (at Times) which is a great arbitrage.

Best in class PSX also looks cheap and they are even further down the road to be a midstream player.
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.

tombgrt

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3794 on: May 16, 2019, 11:25:01 AM »
Bought a boatload of CRC LEAPS today. Painful to do but hopefully with a good return like last year. Basically crashed yesterday (and lost 10% days before) following a bill in California to restrict drilling, news that was already known on Tuesday. Purely sentimental selling if you ask me. Bill unlikely to go through. But even if it did, it would hardly be the end of CRC. Given that CRC is an option on brent prices already, you might as well leverage that leverage with options. Binary outcome most likely (either they survive and are a multibagger or they become a zero at some point) so much preferable about regular stock.

Would you mind sharing (even generally) the timeframe and strikes you're looking at here. I like this idea, but man some of those options are expensive. Be curious to hear how you're thinking about in the money/at the money/out of the money.

Yes, super expensive given volatility and nearly always are. :( But considering the leverage and upside potential it would be nuts if they were cheap obviously. When you know their net debt is around $5b vs market cap of $1b, you know the potential stock appreciation is huge. Consistent higher Brent prices simply balloon their CFs and reserves values and this is something the stock price will exponentially reflect.

Most are jan 2020 which of course are not technically LEAPS but should be more than long enough to capture a nice return. (If we don't see higher pricing in 2019, I'm not sure we would in 2020 either.) These 2019's I obviously sell first. Others are jan 2021. I've bought both ATM and OTM but generally prefer to buy them well OTM at strike $30-40 which is a realistic level as to not risk them expiring worthless and otherwise doesn't require a high cash outlay. These OTM options also actually act more as options of course vs deeply ITM options. ;) No use going for very high delta options for this stock anyway as the atraction to me is in the 'leverage times leverage component'. Also generally found tighter spreads in the OTM options, probably due to higher volumes. Sure, I could go for a call spread but I'm also fairly bullish on oil for the next 12 months so I'm not willing to bother.  :-X It's a highly speculative bet that paid off very well last year (various sold at 800%+ returns of those that I bought around a stock price of $15). You could say these options are now bought mainly with 'house money' as I can now buy these with last year's winnings. So obviously psychologically I'm more willing to swing for the fences. But to me it makes more sense than laying out a multiple of that capital to buy the stock itself.

Company looks cheaper today given current Buena Vista oil pricing, macro situation, extra JVs in place and small debt paydown they already had. They also have much less overhang from the hedges with more upside potential. + I don't see the bill getting far for a couple of reasons. CRC also has plenty of JV's with the state and they count on a great deal of tax revenue from them. Trump's administration was actually looking at expanding land permits for oil extraction so certainly some political headwinds on various levels of government as well. Not to mention gas prices would go ballistic if operations of CRC & co really got impacted in the next few years. Just some posturing by Newsom to please some of the voter base, IMO. So the sell off to me looks overdone and provided me with a decent opportunity to jump in. The announcement of more JVs could also be a great catalyst for the stock. Management is certainly making the right strategic steps. They simply got dealt a poor hand.

Hope this helps!

AB 345 dead for this year! CRC back up to $22 which is a start.

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3795 on: May 16, 2019, 12:02:55 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

Not stupid at all. Think of it as placing a limit order that you get paid for if it doesn't execute. Yes it may never trade down to your desired purchase price, but I find it works 9 times out of 10 to eventually get the stock at your desired price. It builds in the patience to wait for your purchase price.

Gregmal

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3796 on: May 16, 2019, 12:34:58 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.

Plus you have to pay short term capital gain tax, and tie up the cash in the account until put is expired. Like Warren said, if you like the stock, just buy it.

Eating like a chicken yet shitting like an elephant... Not my cup of tea.

boilermaker75

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3797 on: May 16, 2019, 04:18:12 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.

Plus you have to pay short term capital gain tax, and tie up the cash in the account until put is expired. Like Warren said, if you like the stock, just buy it.

You don't have to wait till expiration, you can buy the put back to free up the cash. I do that on occasion.

Also, Buffett may say that but he has written about $5 billion of put options over the years.
« Last Edit: May 16, 2019, 04:21:51 PM by boilermaker75 »

meiroy

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3798 on: May 16, 2019, 10:36:25 PM »
I did something new for me:

I wrote some WY puts that expire in 2 days:
WY 05/17/2019 24.50 P - price when i wrote the puts was 24.85 and I sold the puts for $.10

My reasoning was that I was seriously thinking about adding to my WY position and when I checked the options I saw the OTM options with a bid for $.10 so I just went for it knowing that if I am put to in 2 days then I will get it $.45 less then todays price, which I can live with. My profit on expiration is a whopping $80.

Tell me if my thinking is stupid and i am picking up pennies in front of a steam roller.

The problem with the strategy is that if the stock goes straight up, you just get 10c/ share.

Plus you have to pay short term capital gain tax, and tie up the cash in the account until put is expired. Like Warren said, if you like the stock, just buy it.

You don't have to wait till expiration, you can buy the put back to free up the cash. I do that on occasion.

Also, Buffett may say that but he has written about $5 billion of put options over the years.

Buying it back depends on the spread and liquidity.  May I ask what market data are you using for these?

Spekulatius

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Re: What are you buying today?
« Reply #3799 on: May 17, 2019, 04:01:21 AM »

Eating like a chicken yet shitting like an elephant... Not my cup of tea.

LOL, I like this mental image better than picking up nickels in front of a steamroller
To be a realist, one has to believe in miracles.