Author Topic: Where are the UFOs?  (Read 4305 times)

DTEJD1997

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #10 on: November 26, 2017, 01:40:58 PM »
Hey all:

I think whether or not we've been visiting OR will be visited will depend on if the speed of light is the "speed limit".  If it is the speed limit....it seems that the vast distances between solar systems would serve as a sort of quarantine.  Of course, it would not serve as an absolute limit as you could have robotic probes OR multi-generational ships for living beings.  Of course, a multi-generational ship moving at something like 10% or 20% of the speed of light would be an incredibly massive undertaking and would likely be easy to spot.

I tend to think that there is indeed life elsewhere.  I also think that there might be intelligent life...but would we recognize it?  Would we even be able to interact with them?  Would they want to interact with us?  Would they even be industrialized or have technology?  What if they are intelligent creatures who live under water such as dolphins or whales?  How would we even interact with them?

I think the most likely probability is that we are able to pick up and listen on some type of broadcast from another civilization (SETI).  We would not even have to fully understand the broadcast, simply picking one up would conclusive proof of intelligent, technological life elsewhere in the universe.  EVEN if it were a "get rich quick using leverage in real estate on Zebulon 9!!!!" commercial....

If we could indeed find life out there...it would be one of the greatest events in human civilization.


sleepydragon

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #11 on: November 26, 2017, 01:53:55 PM »
Hey all:

I think whether or not we've been visiting OR will be visited will depend on if the speed of light is the "speed limit".  If it is the speed limit....it seems that the vast distances between solar systems would serve as a sort of quarantine.  Of course, it would not serve as an absolute limit as you could have robotic probes OR multi-generational ships for living beings.  Of course, a multi-generational ship moving at something like 10% or 20% of the speed of light would be an incredibly massive undertaking and would likely be easy to spot.

I tend to think that there is indeed life elsewhere.  I also think that there might be intelligent life...but would we recognize it?  Would we even be able to interact with them?  Would they want to interact with us?  Would they even be industrialized or have technology?  What if they are intelligent creatures who live under water such as dolphins or whales?  How would we even interact with them?

I think the most likely probability is that we are able to pick up and listen on some type of broadcast from another civilization (SETI).  We would not even have to fully understand the broadcast, simply picking one up would conclusive proof of intelligent, technological life elsewhere in the universe.  EVEN if it were a "get rich quick using leverage in real estate on Zebulon 9!!!!" commercial....

If we could indeed find life out there...it would be one of the greatest events in human civilization.

Yeah, i heard a joke recently: earth people picked up a signal from outer space. They spent years to translate the message and finally got it. The message says: how much ft/sqrt the real estate at your planet?

IceCreamMan

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2017, 08:47:46 PM »

rb

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2017, 10:44:25 PM »
There's also the possibility that intelligent life is relatively new in the universe and we may be among the first. Or there are other intelligent species that are developing roughly at the same pace as us. The hard to fathom distances preventing contact.

Intelligent life takes time to develop. To get that time you need a period of galactic calm. As the galaxy was a lot more violent in its (not too distant) youth intelligent life had a much lower probability of developing as well as surviving.

DTEJD1997

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #14 on: November 26, 2017, 11:03:37 PM »
Hey all:

I once read a book that was simply fascinating & well done...It was Existence by David Brin.

It is kind of a story of intergalactic "chain letters". 

In the story, a Chinese fisherman/scavenger finds a special orb.  The orb takes a liking to him and hijinks ensue.  It is so well written that you could almost see it happening next month...

It kind of discusses the Fermi paradox...what happens to civilizations.

I recommend it!

David Brin is a great writer of science fiction...he had many different good stories & books.

Dynamic

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #15 on: November 27, 2017, 09:35:43 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8vfOpZD4Sm8

Neil de Grasse Tyson in the entertaining video link above mentions that we should remember that the U stands for Unidentified, and not jump to the alien hypothesis.

I have discovered that 'skeptic' fits my worldview better than most terms, and I'm a now a very small part of the organised Scientific Skepticism movement. I'm more aware of my own subconscious biases now than when I was a practising physicist. I should point out that true skepticism (unlike cynicism or denialism) implies willingness to accept evidence, but putting an appropriately high bar before accepting something that overturns the well-established position. On that basis I've overturned my initial doubts about Genetic Engineering (esp of food crops) and believe the Organic Food movement is largely in denial of the scientific evidence, as are many Green groups who conversely happen to be in accord with the scientific consensus with regard to climate change and global warming, although they may support poor policy approaches in many cases due to political or anti-capitalist biases.

As a physicist I was forced to accept the overwhelming evidence that the strange worlds of quantum effects and relativistic effects, are really present in nature, and are important enough to matter in some particular set of situations that we don't consider part of 'everyday' world. Yet now, the everyday devices we use require relativistic calculations to stop our GPS position from drifting kilometres per day due to the gravitational field in which the satellites operate, wireless communication requires 'imaginary numbers' to do the math to understand it and semiconductors/lasers we use daily rely on counter-intuitive quantum effects such as tunnelling to work. It even seems that the extraordinary efficiency of photosynthesis in chlorophyll can only be explained because evolution found quantum effects that could effectively 'explore' multiple pathways simultaneously without breaking quantum coherence (collapsing the wavefunction).

Returning to aliens/UFOs, it is interesting that phenomena such as sleep-paralysis, which affects 5% of people regularly and 8-50% at one time or another when the body's normal dream paralysis continues when the brain wakes up, could rationally explain many reports of alien abduction today as well as previous generations' Night Hags/incubi/demons sitting on the chest or abdomen preventing us from moving (and from the Old English word 'maere', we get the modern word nightmare) - which at the time would have made sense as a rationalisation to explain the very worrying phenomenon. Occam's Razor would tell me that's a very likely explanation for a large proportion of reported alien abductions.

There are so many things that can be easily misinterpreted by the 'good enough to survive the African savannah' human visual perception systems we've evolved as a species - e.g. nearby slow-moving illuminated insects being mistaken for silent distant luminous fast-moving spacecraft being just one of many more likely explanations, which necessarily vary depending on the type of phenomena reported and the circumstances. In fact, the absence of sonic booms among craft performing such supposedly super-fast manoeuvres is another indication they're not the result of objects moving at such speeds as the witnesses often assume.

That's not to say I don't expect intelligent life elsewhere in our galaxy of 100 billion starts or the wider universe of 100 billion galaxies, but the probability of contact may dwindle at the conjunction of the immense distances even within our galaxy, let alone to billions of others, and of the immense timescales (many such alien species may have lived and become extinct already, while others may be yet to evolve - our own time as a space-faring civilisation is less than a century old after about 4 billion years since the earth formed and cooled enough to have liquid water). We're only now starting to take the threat of asteroid impacts seriously. I can imagine a lot of promising alien species getting wiped out during their equivalent of what we'd call our pre-historic period. The ancient Romans, Greeks, Chinese and Aboriginals shared our intellect, for example, but lacked the technology to detect, let alone deflect an asteroid.

The Fermi paradox does seem to make it unlikely that the distances and times separating sufficiently intelligent species are anything other than enormous. I could envisage us creating self-replicating machines that could mine asteroids to replicate, travel using solar sails, and relay messages among their fleet to communicate their findings back to future generations on earth or elsewhere, and for this to happen within a couple of hundred years, if not sooner. If we're close enough to achieving it, perhaps other civilisation could have achieved something similar long ago. Now, perhaps they'd only fly-by planets like Earth very rarely and very fast, and perhaps they broadcast broadband signals that are hard to distinguish from noise. Could that explain why we've tried to look for signs of intelligent aliens or their technology but haven't found them yet?

LongHaul

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #16 on: November 28, 2017, 12:06:35 PM »
Awesome post Dynamic!

100 billion galaxies is incredible.   If there are then 100 billion planets in each galaxy it is just an awesome number of potential life planets.  Not easy for me to get my mind around.  Seems like a super high probability event that there is life out there. 
This is a friend who is a very capable consultant for oil and gas investing. 

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rkbabang

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #17 on: November 28, 2017, 12:35:33 PM »
Awesome post Dynamic!

100 billion galaxies is incredible.   If there are then 100 billion planets in each galaxy it is just an awesome number of potential life planets.  Not easy for me to get my mind around.  Seems like a super high probability event that there is life out there. 


There is a big difference between life and intelligent life.  There is another big difference between intelligent life and life capable of leaving its home planet.  Then there is another huge leap (one we have yet to make and have no near or medium term prospects of making) to life capable of interstellar travel within its home galaxy.  Then, probably the largest leap will be between life which can travel interstellar distances and life which has figured out how to travel intergalactic distances.   Unless there is new physics which we haven't figured out both of the last two categories may not even be possible.  Maybe all lifeforms to date have been trapped within their solar system of origin.

There is also the time scales to consider.  The universe is only 13 billion years old and Earthlike planets have only been possible for less time than that.    How likely is life really to appear on a planet that supports it?  The Earth is pretty life friendly yet it only originated here once in over 4.6B years (as far as we can tell).  If life was a sure thing, you would think that new completely unrelated lifeforms would be originating on earth all the time.  Even if it only happened every billion years there would be 4 completely different families of life on Earth, but there is only one.  What if whatever happened that day that life started on Earth failed to happen? Maybe Earth would still be barren of life and would remain that way forever. It certainly hasn't happened again in over 4B years.

Then there is the question, if life does develop how likely is intelligent life?  I'd propose that it is rare indeed.  It took 4.2B years for intelligent life to evolve on earth which was capable of leaving the planet.  What if in all that time we had one more mass-extinction event (or one fewer) it may have never happened at all.  The Earth might exist without intelligent life right up until the sun burned out. The universe has only been around for 13B years and it took us over 4B years to evolve, what if it usually takes a lot longer than that?  Maybe there hasn't been enough time yet for many intelligent life forms to exist.

Then there is the question, if intelligent life does form, what is the chance that it will be able to leave its planet?  Dolphins are intelligent, they communicate with each other and they have a culture passed down from one generation to the next.  Yet, they will live in the water, raise their families, hunt fish, play, etc, but because of the limitations of their biology they will never use tools or harness fire, etc...   How far would humans have gotten without opposable thumbs?  I think many intelligent species in the universe are probably evolutionary dead ends as far as settling the stars goes.  And how many "great filters" are there for even life like ours?   How many species destroy themselves with nuclear bombs or antimatter or nanotechnology or AI or something else long before settling their galaxies?

Like I said, I suspect intelligent life capable of interstellar travel is so rare that it is not at all surprising that we haven't been visited yet and I suspect that intergalactic travel will never be possible for any lifeform anywhere.  I also suspect that intelligent life itself is so rare that we may be the only ones in the Milkyway.  Whether we might find someway to detect life in the universe someday is an open question, but I seriously doubt we will ever meet up with any intelligent lifeforms in person.
« Last Edit: November 28, 2017, 12:39:39 PM by rkbabang »

DCG

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #18 on: November 28, 2017, 12:37:03 PM »
It's crazy to think about how many other forms of life are likely out there. Some could literally be billions or trillions of years ahead of us.


It's also crazy to think that aliens would travel at least 25 trillion miles (the distance to the closest solar system astronomers think there's some potential for life) to go to our corn fields so they can make circles in them, and then turn around and go 25 trillion miles back home.

rkbabang

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Re: Where are the UFOs?
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2017, 12:42:38 PM »
It's crazy to think about how many other forms of life are likely out there. Some could literally be billions or trillions of years ahead of us.


It's also crazy to think that aliens would travel at least 25 trillion miles (the distance to the closest solar system astronomers think there's some potential for life) to go to our corn fields so they can make circles in them, and then turn around and go 25 trillion miles back home.

Sometimes they kill cows, abduct and rape people and surgically put implants in their heads.