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tol1

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  1. Good morning - has anyone a clue what the short thesis is? Muddy Waters came out, but has not published any report. Curious to hear. The company is listed in Luxembourg.
  2. Good evening, Can anyone recommend accounting apps that give daily or weekly "bites" / learnings? Thanks
  3. Thanks I repeatedly hear that OEMs will be beneficiary of EVs as servicing can be done directly with them via software updates. I wonder how the average gross profit per vehicle breaks down into a) front margin, b) warranty, c) OEM incentives etc on an absolute dollar basis - do you know more? Also, I see that some dealers open independent used dealerships with low avg prices offset by F&I, warranty etc. - What is your view on a) the sustainable economics of that model and b) the potential to scale as to me it seems any dealer could follow the same strategy?
  4. Some of the listed dealers have poor ROICs - still my go-to-metric after all. I get the scale effect, but for used cars anyone can enter any market and push prices down hoping to recoup that by selling financing/insurance/warranty etc. The threat that won't go is the price transparency, not just ecommerce. I just don't see how dealers can escape from that and stabilize gross profits. What are the arguments for gross profits per car to stabilize or even increase again? Also, car volumes do not grow over the long-term, but move within set ranges. Pricing is set by OEMs. So how can dealers grow their top line? Rate increases have already increased the floorplan rates of most dealers, in fact. IMO that cannot be a tailwind. That is why car financings (both new and used) for consumers have gone up as well. I am not saying that there is a going concern doubt, but given where we are in the cycle, I just cannot see positive developments in the next 2-3 years.
  5. I think Lithia have been acquisitive, but that alone does not justify an investment. Looking at the fundamentals, why would one buy a car dealer stock now? SG&A and floorplan interest have material impact on EPS. Rates are heading north and dealers have to step up online investments. Overall, valuations have come down in some instances, but IMO that is anticipating upcoming deflated earnings. Just trying to challenge a potential long view.
  6. As long as dealer laws exist, there is still some value in the dealership. It is increasingly difficult for independent dealers to survive, especially as interest rates on floor plan financing have risen. New car sales are essentially breakeven. Profit is on financing, add-ons, used cars/trade-ins, and service. There are still a ton of independent dealerships. Consolidation among those is inevitable. Dealer laws are being reviewed as we speak and OEMs partially circumvent them with car sharing. Tesla sells cars directly. Another challenge is that OEMs barely sign off new dealer locations anymore. Plus on the used cars side you can open anywhere. Why is consolidation inevitable? The number of independent dealers has actually grown since 08/09. Consolidation requires capital and looking at how the dealers are leveraged I do not see a lot of headroom. Do you have any insights on my questions by any chance?
  7. There are plenty of headwinds (ecommerce, transparency for consumers, rising rates etc) and I am looking for any positives. Any bull arguments and data much welcome. Apart from that, a few questions that arose during my readings: - I saw that while the sales price per vehicle has grown both for new and used vehicles since 2011/12, gross profit per car has come down for dealers. Who has benefited from the price increase? OEMs only? - Also, I wonder how the average gross profit per vehicle breaks down into a) front margin, b) warranty, c) OEM incentives etc on an absolute dollar basis - Has there been any news on a potential consolidation among listed dealerships?
  8. Good evening, anyone who has looked into the US car dealerships? Any recommended resources? Thanks
  9. Good morning - I came across Companies House in the UK, where one can find brief financial statements of private companies. Has anyone come across similar websites for Italy, France, Spain, Switzerland (I highly doubt it), Sweden etc? Thank you
  10. Thanks everyone. Have basic to medium accounting knowledge. Looking at IFRS only. Can anyone recommend books beyond CFA ones?
  11. Gents, I would like to not just refresh, but also advance my accounting skills. Any classes (off- and or online) or materials that you would highly recommend? Thank you
  12. Hey, How do you PMs / Analysts approach conferences that are filled with numerous management meetings? How do you select which companies to meet out of a vast list and what questions do you generally ask companies that you have not looked at? Keen to hear about your approaches. Thank you
  13. Mid-level experience on both buy- and sell-side. Goal is PM and maybe start own shop at some point.
  14. Ladies / Gents, I have been offered 2 different investor positions in equities at different funds that run a value-based, bottom-up investment strategy. The multi-manager (MM) total comp is lower initially, but there is a stronger curve in the long-term if the performance is decent obviously. It is not the typical trading platform with tight risk limits. All PMs follow a value-based strategy and everyone runs his own P&L. The other option is a large single-manager (SM) with the typical Analyst - PM structure, ie path to PM takes long time and total comp as an Analyst is stable across the cycle. I would not work for a "star PM" or even the founder I should note. The SM has the stronger brand but lower annualized return vs the MM. My goal was always to work for an experienced senior PM / founder with a strong track record, but one cannot have it all I suppose. What are your thoughts on either path and your own experiences? Thank you
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