SharperDingaan

A worthwhile read, with results that are not unexpected. However, there are actually 3 BTC markets, not 2. On-chain, off-chain (Lightning network, stable coin, BTC-ETF, etc), and derivatives (OTC and non-OTC); the silence around the derivatives market speaking volumes. The markets are also stratified, and facilitate money laundering; (1) Borderless BTC but subject to the 'influence' of the big holders, (2) semi-borderless BTC options/futures (US exchange [CME], borderless (but known) buyers/sellers, (3) less borderless BTC-ETF that is largely confined within the host nation. Money laundering via real estate is visible at scale, but much less so via crypto; all those empty towers in the desert and new cities in Asia being prime examples. Rather than fight it (venereal disease approach), money laundering is simply co-opted to benefit everybody - as volatility to trade against (the largest money launderers in the world are nation states) Less borderless as a US BTC-ETF can be pledged as collateral for a non USD loan. Authorities know who you are, but can lean on the lender at any time to seize the collateral - Russia (JP Morgan) and China (Binance) as more recent examples. We live in interesting times. SD

Quite agree! for the next few years Europe is fine for vacation. But as pointed out, if you want to do the more 'exotic' stuff (Trans Siberian, Orient Express, etc.); get it done, or risk losing the opportunity - which may not come round again during your remaining go-go/slow-go years. I have been waiting for years to finish travelling overland from London to Capetown via the old 'Red Route'; but so long as the Sudan conflict continues - one has to overfly the Sahara crossing, and there is no overland travel to Abu Simbel from the Ethiopian highlands (source of the Nile) via the desert. When we can visit anytime, we take it for granted; and assume the destination will always be there, and/or look the same. We just recognise that the world is changing, and it wouldn't hurt to be a lot more appreciative of our current abilities. SD

The down-side to this is that senior officials have begun talking about a 'pre-war' stage; and war occurs in Europe about every 70+ years (i.e: overdue). 2%+ spending targets have now become priorities (Russia/Trump effect). And seem to be getting met through ramped up new weapons production (shells, drones, rockets, etc.), logistics rotating through existing hot zones for 'practice', and a build-up of mass deployable 'inventory' outside of domestic budget controls (US/Ukraine), etc. Alongside quiet re-militarisation of Germany and Japan. Not a bad thing; but if you want to get that European travel in .... do it sooner rather than later. SD

Miners have incentive to borrow against their stash to pay the bills. Bankers have incentive to lend out the collateral via derivatives. As long as the miner can continue to pay the interest, everyone wins. But some miners are going to get liquidated, their stashes increasing the BTC float and lowering the BTC price. However, the obvious buyers have no incentive to buy, as all they need do is simply wait on puts to get assigned; and short (via CME options/futures) on the way down .... for a few extra bucks. SD

Nah ... I'm just ahead of everyone else The whole currency thing is that if you can pay for something with it, it's a form of cash; we just don't like the form. Could be USD, bricks of cocaine, hi-tech chips/weapons, oil, 'influence', or BTC; whichever is 'best' depends upon the purpose. Materially changing valuation is the norm, not the exception. SD

Doesn't really happen though; think of a cash holding in BTC/BTC-ETF. If you think your cash/BTC is going to be worth more next year (by at least inflation) you would be inclined to HODL .... but in reality, the cash/BTC is going to be swing traded around a core holding; hopefully for gains that will be spent within the next year. But ..... while the gains are free money, they are only going to be 'spent' as long as they are relatively small (low spending bar); the reality is that the larger gains are going to be 'invested' ... in new truck/car, mortgage repayment, house upgrades, more bonds, etc (high spending bar). But what when the cumulative gain to date has become so large, that you have now both paid off everything, and established the family 'pile' for generations to come? ... any further gains are now destructive to both you and your family. The gains get given away ... ideally on something lasting and worth while. It used to be that cash (at best) earned a real return of 0-1%; but in the BTC age ... 50%+ year is not that unusual. Changes the whole perspective. SD

Nobody is indispensable - even Julius Caesar. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Julius_Caesar SD

If there is going to be a lasting peace, there is going to have to be a 2 state solution; as/when there are 2 states, this will be a non-issue. After last night's fiasco, one has to think the current coalition government is done; it has now been 6 months+ since the Oct 09 attack, and the blood-lust has to be pretty much over. SD

The best outcome would be peace breaking out; Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, unrestricted aid flows across Gaza, Gulf state funded field hospitals on the Egyptian side of the Rafah crossing, Houthis give Red Sea shipping a break. Oil prices fall like a brick, partial diversion of Israeli weapons flow to Ukraine, and Israel prepares for a new round of elections. Not in many peoples interests, but the calculus changed last night. Longer term; all that destruction in Gaza has to be rebuilt. Most would expect a change in Gaza's status, gulf state money combined with Gaza labour, and Israel excluded as much as possible. Without the war spending and cheap labour, Israel goes into recession. SD

I routinely point out to both undergrad/grad students, that to get ahead - you must expose yourself to risk; and that most of us will only have two risk-windows per lifetime. We have a variety of tools by which we can mitigate and/or position ourselves to benefit from risk; but it's to us to both act, and recognise opportunity as it is passing. Most people lack the imagination, and the ability to apply; hence the well-known 'you can lead a horse to water, but can't make it drink'. However, while there are infinite possibilities, whatever you choose also needs to be a good match for you. No different to finding your 'significant other'; yet look around you .... at how few seem to be able to do it. SD

The hard reality is that Israel f****d up badly when they struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus; senior officials rolled the dice, and almost pulled the US and UK into Gulf War III. There are a lot of bills to pay for last nights bail-out, and there will be consequences. The only reason we don't have Gulf War III this morning is because Iran also has very smart generals, who managed to launch a face-saving sovereign-on-sovereign strike that was designed to reliably fail. Now it's purely a personal matter between families; the perpetrators will be known, and its old world 'eye-for-an-eye'. One day ... they will be suddenly gone, the matter closed, and we will all be the safer for it. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/4/why-does-israel-keep-launching-attacks-in-syria Lot of very smart people acted last night; we owe them all an enormous favour. SD

There is nothing wrong with dissenting opinion, and it is to be encouraged; but there's also reality. China is a communist country, and for the western investor, property rights are about 'might is right'. You have them only while China needs the West more than the West needs China, after that .... not so much. If you were unsure of that, look no further than both Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Participation also doesn't mean investment in China. China is well known for over-developing mines in 3rd world countries, and using the resultant surplus global over supply to force down the commodities price for decades. When the host nation objects, the mine and rail/port labour is simply replaced with expats and the commodity proceeds processed through the Chinese banking system. Object some more, and you're replaced with civil war. Age-old fair game .... but it's the real meaning of 'belt and road'. However; every former Colonial Power has learnt the hard way, that eventually the natives take back the assets, and the asset strip is a time limited engagement. Changing the face of the colonialist doesn't change the eventual end-game. It eventually catches up. China has made amazing progress over the decades, but it's been very much along the failed 'Asian Tiger' model. Same as Japan; burn the population pyramid to do it, finance it with extraordinary credit expansion, and allow the wealth to build up in highly leveraged real estate. Thing is ... you run out of babies 'cause everyone is working stupid hours, the real estate depends on ongoing ability to repay, and the whole thing tanks when the increasingly limited Chinese labour pool eventually ages out. As with Japan, interest rates plummet/stay there for years, and the whole world exploits the dirt cheap money. Do you really want to be the lender in this, or would you much rather be the borrower? Then add to it the dictators playbook; when things aren't going well at home, distract attention by 'creating an enemy' that everyone can be rallied around .... and in a communist country, there is only one 'leader'. If you're going to take this kind of risk, there are a great many other places with better returns/unit risk in which to do it. Not what many want to hear. SD

Do this in a tax exempt/deferred account (TFSA/RRSP), and the math looks a little different SD

The reality is that BTC-ETF's are not 'investments'; they are trading sardines, and 3-months is a long time. Lot of folks think BTC is 85K 4-months out (+21% from today's 70K ); but obviously it's not a straight line rise. Uncertainty drives FOMO that drives volatility that drives gambling. Should BTC fade back to 65K; that 4-month gain at 85K is now +31% China's BTC-ETF introduction has indeed the potential to move the market, but to move the dial it has to overcome the widely expected post-halving mining drag. There's a reason why Chinese BTC-ETF's are coming to market, after the current halving. Step away for a time, break the feedback loops, and come back with fresh eyes; the bunnies will still be there later SD

Over time each becomes its own very strong stand-alone regional business. Each does a small IPO (10-15% of the entire business) to establish a public market, a current share value, raise its own capital, and create the ability to issue its own stock options etc. The other 85% of the shares remain held by FFH, with dividends flowing up to FFH as already occurs. Puts an easy daily minimum sum of the parts value on FFH, and is standard operating procedure in most corporate finance shops. Nothing magical. SD