mcliu

Core PCE +3.7% but only +1.6% GDP? Just a quarter but are we seeing potential stagflation?

Wow. Is it really a hedge if the opportunity cost is 90%? 11k actual vs 100k “unhedged”. -50% over 20 years doesn’t sound like a hedge. Also this is a mutual fund not a hedge fund.. Pretty crazy that he can do this.

Kyoto’s amazing, my favourite place to visit in the world. If you’re into food, try to find a kaiseki restaurant in Kyoto. It’s a real experience and Kyoto takes it to the next level. You might need to have your hotel book since most are reservations only. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaiseki Renting a kimono for a day is kind of fun given the historical backdrop. All the Japanese gardens are incredible. The Philosopher’s Walk is a nice less touristy area to go for a walk. There’s an incredible robata (梨門邸) that we accidentally wandered into for lunch that I still reminisce about. https://www.japan-guide.com/e/e3906.html

+1 Yes. Why was it deleted?

The fundamentals still show declining inventories. However, production has increased in the US - nearly 13mmbpd.

I think yes and no. There's different ways of winning. Fighting proxy wars is not that effective. The US lost the proxy war in Vietnam but won the Cold War. I think the US won because they demonstrated that a capitalist-democratic society provided a better quality of life than a socialist-command society. I think to win long-term, your society needs to excel in freedom, education, safety, healthcare, infrastructure, cost of living, technology, business opportunities. Over the last two decades, we have not invested enough in these areas and other places are catching up or surpassing us.

$100B more to maintain current stalemate.. "Milley says: there will be no military victory."

Three major Canadian banks have disclosed that about 20 per cent of their residential mortgage borrowers – representing nearly $130-billion in loans – are seeing their balances grow as their monthly payments no longer cover all the interest they owe. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-mortgage-borrowers-td-bmo-cibc-homeowners/

Was peace possible if NATO agreed to stop its expansion?

The future is uncertain, especially for wars, so it's good to think probabilistically. In a downside scenario, Ukraine might not prevail. What happens then?

Our tax dollars aren't going to Wagner, they're going to our politicians and to Ukraine. Why shouldn't it be a problem if these folks end up supporting extremists? The longer this war drags on the more Ukrainians & Russians will die. Why aren't we trying to get Ukraine to negotiate for peace? France brokered a ceasefire between Georgia and Russia after 7 days, saving countless lives, why can't that happen here? Does the West really care about Ukrainians or are we using them to give the finger to Russia? If we cared so much about Ukrainian lives, why don't we send our own troops instead?

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/ukraine-war-ethics-morality-murky/

Strange upside down world now. It seems like the Russians are learning quickly. There is a growing possibility that Ukraine may not prevail despite our weapons. Meanwhile, Ukrainian casualties are mounting quickly. What happens then?

10 years of Trudeau gave us negative per capita GDP, weaker C$ broken healthcare, housing crisis, immigration crisis, broken education, depleted and broken military, record debt and deficits and multiple foreign policy fiascos. Probably time for some change.

Seems like the narrative is changing from “where’s the proof” to “but he’s a terrorist.”